Vilander Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 17 hours ago, bharathh said: but the common narrative here is that he is responsible for everything bad that happened No firstly I don't agree that's not the narrative we are arguing on. Even if that is not accepting facts about wave 1 to wave 2 prediction is not the way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 10 hours ago, bharathh said: I said show me where it was predicted for India. You didn't show it. You made claims saying scientists predicted wave 2 being severe and that this govt did not listen to eminent ppl that predicted wave 2 with accuracy - False You posted some random graphs from the Center for Disease Control and said see- working model to predict. It predicts nothing in India - much less for wave 2. In fact you cannot even make out for what region this is predicting deaths. Then you say someone should have done this for India again coming back to the fact that there were no projections from anyone predicting the severity of wave 2. Basically, you keep reiterating the pt that what happened in wave 2 in India was not predicted by anyone but don't seem to realise this! You keep parroting the same nonsense - like 70% of the country should have been vaccinated. Wave 2 could have been predicted. Blah blah... Could it have been done? No. What happened in wave 2 - esp with the way the numbers spiked up suddenly was unprecedented. Esp for a country that appeared to have done well in Wave 1. This was a black swan event. In fact, despite everyone realising that there will be a wave 3 and perhaps 4 - noone can predict when this will happen and how high the numbers will go to. When the spike for wave 3 begins - based on past information and parameters such as # of vaccinated population, # of vulnerable pop etc. a model for wave 3 can begin to be constructed. This will have a high margin for error initially and close to the peak things will get clearer. However, life doesn't conform neatly to a bell curve. It just looks that way at the end. Data science and modelling is still a very inaccurate science - esp for something as new as Covid. We don't have enough base data to predict waves - esp with the way the virus is mutating. Each mutation requires studies of its own. Mathematical models are highly theoretical. At the moment they are still better at describing something that has already happened - rather than predicting what will happen. Pls have the last word though Let me simplify. You said models cannot predict it. I showed you that there are 400 models woith an error of less than 13%. Not asking so many karamcharis to comeup with even one model is not my problem. Your list of making excuses for BJP is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Banton and speedheat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin 3:!6 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 4 hours ago, coffee_rules said: Actually it has reduced. Modi was always above 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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