Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)

[pkmmamks]

4 hours ago, singhvivek141 said:

India aligning with US, means we will have to leave Russia. Extremely tough call for us, unless Putin is ready to "pause" the Ukraine war to gather time, and currently army positions become the new boundary, while Ukraine not getting into NATO. Can be a win-win scenario for all parties except Zelensky.

US-China alliance is extremely unlikely, there is enough animosity between the two, unless US is ready to sacrifice Taiwan, Philippines for their benefit, it can happen, but will dent trust on US.

Third variable can be RIC coming together, another unlikely scenario, but if happens. The whole dynamics of South East Asia will change, and Middle East (plus Iran-Pakistan) will become a battle ground between Western bloc and Eastern bloc. Tough for us in terms of the challenges, on the Western border, but it's needed anyway, coz a MEGA war is round the corner.

The first option although still difficult but looked the only one which had some chance of happening may be till a couple of years ago. 

[IndianRenegade]

 

good analysis. Much of India’s FP issues are self inflicted, assassination attempts in western soil targeting ppl who hardly matter on the ground, long sermons by laser eyed EAM while good for shorts doesn’t get you friends. 
 

an opposition that is more interested in scoring brownie points than rallying behind the country during conflicts. And pride which prevents India from being practical. 
 

frankly Indian foreign policy needs a revamp wrt the west. 

[G_B_]

People need to stop jumping the gun and rush into "analysis".

 

Supposedly Maldives was a huge foreign policy setback from a few years ago...

 

The blunt truth is 19 to 20% is the best India can hope for even with a deal. That has become painfully clear looking at emerging Asean countries. Thats not too far of the 25% we have now. Likes of Japan and South Korea got 15% by pledging billions in investment in the usa. That headline 15% is misleading.

 

The key question is there does not seem to be much delta between and deal and no deal atm. 

 

India is far more reliant on russian arms 

in critical places like brahmos 2 etc. So its not just about oil. Its a security issue.

 

So just keep your head down. Dont get involved in spats with Trump and move on. Keep talking to the Usa. 25% with no deal is ok. We dont want it to rise 50%. 

 

Mostly trump has the fed in his sights. Let him focus there.

 

 

 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

6 hours ago, IndianRenegade said:

 

good analysis. Much of India’s FP issues are self inflicted, assassination attempts in western soil targeting ppl who hardly matter on the ground, long sermons by laser eyed EAM while good for shorts doesn’t get you friends. 
 

an opposition that is more interested in scoring brownie points than rallying behind the country during conflicts. And pride which prevents India from being practical. 
 

frankly Indian foreign policy needs a revamp wrt the west. 

 

Yup India should learn to be vassal butt boy. 

[ravishingravi]

3 hours ago, G_B_ said:

People need to stop jumping the gun and rush into "analysis".

 

Supposedly Maldives was a huge foreign policy setback from a few years ago...

 

The blunt truth is 19 to 20% is the best India can hope for even with a deal. That has become painfully clear looking at emerging Asean countries. Thats not too far of the 25% we have now. Likes of Japan and South Korea got 15% by pledging billions in investment in the usa. That headline 15% is misleading.

 

The key question is there does not seem to be much delta between and deal and no deal atm. 

 

India is far more reliant on russian arms 

in critical places like brahmos 2 etc. So its not just about oil. Its a security issue.

 

So just keep your head down. Dont get involved in spats with Trump and move on. Keep talking to the Usa. 25% with no deal is ok. We dont want it to rise 50%. 

 

Mostly trump has the fed in his sights. Let him focus there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The issue is not much about tariff anymore. It's about moving goal post. Tariff is being used as a tool for coercion and not economics. 

 

Game theory would suggest that India has more dividends by not playing. 

[IndianRenegade]

2 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Yup India should learn to be vassal butt boy. 

No… avoid planning assassination in western soil, even the Saudi royal family which bribes the US manifolds had to make amends & they didn't even strike on western soil.
 

Don’t get diplomatically outmaneuvered over cheap crypto deals & pride that prevents you from few meaningless words of praise.

Edited August 3, 2025 by IndianRenegade

[IndianRenegade]

He settled a lot of “beautiful wars” guys! Big beautiful wars!!

 

 

[coffee_rules]

8 hours ago, IndianRenegade said:

He settled a lot of “beautiful wars” guys! Big beautiful wars!!

 

 

If India stopped the war, over a trade deal , then why impose higher tariff and penalty as week? Either India gets a deal or he didn’t stop any damned war between India and Pakistan 

[G_B_]

13 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

The issue is not much about tariff anymore. It's about moving goal post. Tariff is being used as a tool for coercion and not economics. 

 

Game theory would suggest that India has more dividends by not playing. 

 

See even there india should buy stuff like chinooks apaches and p8 to keep the usa interested. Get those engines from GE for tejas

 

 

F35 is a non starter. 

[G_B_]

12 hours ago, IndianRenegade said:

No… avoid planning assassination in western soil, even the Saudi royal family which bribes the US manifolds had to make amends & they didn't even strike on western soil.
 

Don’t get diplomatically outmaneuvered over cheap crypto deals & pride that prevents you from few meaningless words of praise.

 

Canada on whose soil  supposed assasination took place has been hit with higher tarriffs than india...

 

 

This argument makes 0 sense.

[G_B_]

India should now focus on accelerating fta with the EU.

 

Even thats a tough nut to crack. But dont rush into a deal if it does not work for you.

[IndianRenegade]

There it is they are setting up the stage to hate everyday normal Indians. 
 

this is exactly what I feared will happen. Liberals won’t say anything even if they won’t engage in such demonizing. The next 2-3 yrs could become really hard for Indians living in US.

Edited August 4, 2025 by IndianRenegade

[IndianRenegade]

 

[ravishingravi]

India is not giving in. 

 

 

[SinNombre]

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil stated on Monday that the European Union’s trade deal with the United States requires significant clarification, adding that the bloc had shown weakness during negotiations.

 

There is no hurry to rush into a deal and fall into a ditch like EU and Vietnam. This is all classic Trump transactional negotiating. 2% of our GDP is exports to the US, cheap oil is worth more than 2%. 

[ravishingravi]

Whoever this guy is, he is getting too much right

 

 

[ravishingravi]

1 minute ago, SinNombre said:

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil stated on Monday that the European Union’s trade deal with the United States requires significant clarification, adding that the bloc had shown weakness during negotiations.

 

There is no hurry to rush into a deal and fall into a ditch like EU and Vietnam. This is all classic Trump transactional negotiating. 2% of our GDP is exports to the US, cheap oil is worth more than 2%. 

 

Indeed. All Trump has ensured is tanking the economy. 

[mishra]

If I am to guess, it seems EU deal tarrif rate, buying US arms, increase the defence budget to 5% of GDP and Trumps insults was on basis  that Trump will support EU on Russia.

Lets wait and watch

[ravishingravi]

 

[ravishingravi]

Btw Witkoff is in Russia now to negotiate peace deal. They want to pressurize India exactly at this moment. It's too obvious for everyone apart from not so smart folks. @Nagz not refering to you.