ravishingravi Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 (edited) Here is hoping that this brings joy, brotherhood and success to India. Kidding. I actually want America to do well and again become the beacon of ambition and optimism. I figure this will be an eventful 4 years. This is dream team with dream project. If this clicks, this insane disruption can change working of governments and bureaucracy across the world. There can be for the first time non left institutions and strain of thought that is recognised and institutionalised. There is ofcourse high possibility of implosion. But then if America teaches you anything, it is power to dream. Let's see how far they land from expectations in 2028. Edited November 9 by ravishingravi G_B_ and jigjig 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 I see Canada already seems very tense. Why is she smiling ? Canada just seems so unserious and incompetent at every level, it makes me forget India's mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 Haha. If Canada cam feel the heat, don't know what happens to the rest. Europe will be having sleepless nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Shuru to hone do! Jan 20 2025!! Lone Wolf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 EU to buy LNG from US instead of Russia ravishingravi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 But First things first, got to say bye to Biden ravishingravi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Europe and Eu can easily do well. Germany debt to gdp is 40%. Usa is 120% with a budget deficit expected of 6% to 7%. I would argue that a Trump tarriff rate of 20% would force Germany to open its coffers and spend to boost the EU. Will be a long term boon. Germany has kept itself poor by this nazi like adherance to a balanced budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 15 minutes ago, G_B_ said: Europe and Eu can easily do well. Germany debt to gdp is 40%. Usa is 120% with a budget deficit expected of 6% to 7%. I would argue that a Trump tarriff rate of 20% would force Germany to open its coffers and spend to boost the EU. Will be a long term boon. Germany has kept itself poor by this nazi like adherance to a balanced budget. German success post world war was a neutered success. Yes it's a great success story but the kind of decisions they have made over last 20 years, it shows that they lack true democracy of views, lateral think and long term planning. American chatra chaya hid inherent limitations of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 30 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: German success post world war was a neutered success. Yes it's a great success story but the kind of decisions they have made over last 20 years, it shows that they lack true democracy of views, lateral think and long term planning. American chatra chaya hid inherent limitations of the country. Their business model of cheap gas from russia + high end manufacturing is over. They need a new model. This is where spending on their creaking infra will help. Booming along to find that next industry. Real gdp growth of 2% for more than a decade. Germany should spend more of defence. Have a 300k standing army and be self reliant. If you follow German politics, the liberals refused to spend. The Greens shackled imdustry. The gov is as good as finished. Cdu/csu will spend more is what they are saying. The uk found itself in same position in 2008. Yet to find sustained high growth. Germany though has that fiscal firepower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Its not just Germany. I think south korea and japan will ramp up defense spending. Geo politically will be great for India. Japan has a 100 naval destroyer plan by 2035. Needs to happen. ravishingravi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 4 minutes ago, G_B_ said: Their business model of cheap gas from russia + high end manufacturing is over. They need a new model. This is where spending on their creaking infra will help. Booming along to find that next industry. Real gdp growth of 2% for more than a decade. Germany should spend more of defence. Have a 300k standing army and be self reliant. If you follow German politics, the liberals refused to spend. The Greens shackled imdustry. The gov is as good as finished. Cdu/csu will spend more is what they are saying. The uk found itself in same position in 2008. Yet to find sustained high growth. Germany though has that fiscal firepower. Yes I follow German politics closely. Rise of AFD us imminent now. Green party sponsored by Russians closed Nuclear. Americans closed Russian gas. Interestingly German markets reacted positively to news of govt collapse. Tells you state of nation. G_B_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 It was a dumb coalition. You had greens killing energy self reliance through likes of coal. You had liberals not willing to spend on renewables. Result was country not going anywhere. Afd just filled that void. German companies too caught up with lack of direction. Automakers behind curve in electric. South koreans and chinese have stolen the march. My boss went to Germany in 2006 for the wc and 2024 for the euros. Told me in 2006 country infra was world class. In 2024 uk had better infra than crumbling German infra. Broadband 4g/5g speeds are worse than the uk for eg. My gut feeling is that Trump election will force europe to reform. Trump is 100% correct in saying Europe needs to pull weight in Nato. Barring poland and baltic states nobody is meeting 2% of gdp requirement. Southern Europe is basically at 1% of gdp. Even those states were jarred into action due to Russia attacking ukraine. Europe lacks oil. It is self sufficient in food. Plan needed to be self sufficient in defence etc. ravishingravi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 What could we expect ? Free speech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 5 hours ago, G_B_ said: It was a dumb coalition. You had greens killing energy self reliance through likes of coal. You had liberals not willing to spend on renewables. Result was country not going anywhere. Afd just filled that void. German companies too caught up with lack of direction. Automakers behind curve in electric. South koreans and chinese have stolen the march. My boss went to Germany in 2006 for the wc and 2024 for the euros. Told me in 2006 country infra was world class. In 2024 uk had better infra than crumbling German infra. Broadband 4g/5g speeds are worse than the uk for eg. My gut feeling is that Trump election will force europe to reform. Trump is 100% correct in saying Europe needs to pull weight in Nato. Barring poland and baltic states nobody is meeting 2% of gdp requirement. Southern Europe is basically at 1% of gdp. Even those states were jarred into action due to Russia attacking ukraine. Europe lacks oil. It is self sufficient in food. Plan needed to be self sufficient in defence etc. Can't say I know all Europeans nationalities well. But Germans I do. I love them. But they are freaking rigid and arrogant at times. What has work for golden era may not work now. Good intentions don't lead to good results. Listen to the other side. If you try to supress AFD, they will have dire consequences. Germans are very straight forward and blunt people. Actually a brilliant civilization who confidence has been neutered by America post world war. They don't know their capabilities. They have lost capacity to think first principles. They gutted nuclear for hydrogen which doesn't exist. And they think solar and wind will work for them except that they have no sun and win. Now they are burning coal and buying oil from us. Debt madness had caused them to not invest. Now they are behind the curve. Infrastructure is collapsing. Demography collapsing. 20% population will become pensioners this decade. We are looking at painful decline. That's why you never become vassal state to US even if there is a tempting faustian bargain to be done. G_B_ and Mariyam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 I also want to see how vietnam gets on in the face of tartiffs. China exports through vietnam. Will be doubly hit. They are pivoting to other industries like tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 One thing to also note for india is the need to diversify even further. Bd did really well in terms of ths textile industry. But their exports are slowing due to reliance on a single sector. A 10% tariff will heavily erode at their low margins in this sector. These tarrifs are going to cause a lot of geopolitocal instability,especially if Europe hits back with tarriffs of their own. The developing world will take a hit. Prices will rise in the west. diga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 In the short term, blanket tariffs could hurt the US itself with the Americans having to pay more. Also manufactured goods are priced based on value addition: FOB cost + freight + insurance + customs + P&L of the local value addition center in the US + etc. diga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 I think thats why trump wants them now. He can blame the rises on the dems in year 1. Use tarriff revenue for tax cuts+ deportation+ generate more jobs in usa. Come 2029 inflation would have subsided. Only flaw in plan is geopolitical events. diga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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