Gambit Posted January 8, 2009 Posted January 8, 2009 For investors in Indian market, advice is to sit tight and not invest heavily now. Markets always dip in uncertain times/environments and the LS election next year will be that time. Invest right before them.
sandtest Posted January 8, 2009 Posted January 8, 2009 I think, Property prices at least in Mumbai have not came down at all....I am still hunting a bigger flat but no signs of relief. As far as investment, I try parking my extra earnings in Fixed Deposits of Sarkaari banks of India :--D Union Bank, State Bank of India are giving more than 9.5%interest rate. Safe and secure with no compexity for an uneducated in finance like me.
Ram Posted January 9, 2009 Posted January 9, 2009 Knowing nothing about this topic' date=' let me try to add something here. Are you asking about investments in real estate instruments or real estate properties [i']per se? If it is the latter, you really have to consider the situation in the specific location you are planning to buy. There are many parts of the country where real estate property values did not shoot up to ridiculously overpriced levels as they did in CA, FL etc. Those places are now seeing smaller jolts, if any. Check out the URL below; click on "Stats and Trends," enter a zipcode and get home-price trends over the last year/ 5 years etc. http://www.trulia.com/ I was referring specifically to real-estate properties. Thanks for the link. i'm no expert on the specifics of US real estate markets since i live in London. stock-market recovery, as you say, does tend to lead house price recovery. i think stocks will make new lows. i understand the US mkt is very dislocated and many parts eg Florida have already halved. others like Manhattan are still overpriced. if you've been waiting to snap up that luxury holiday home and you intend to make good use of it ie not a pure investment play, is it really worth waiting another two years for the very bottom? i have US colleagues that believe there is good value now in some parts of the US. other parts of the world eg UK are an entirely different proposition. Post your real estate questions on www.greenenergyinvestors.com. Lots of expertise there. Thanks for the link.
veer Posted January 9, 2009 Posted January 9, 2009 interesting read goose.. question though.. since interest rate is low, isnt it better to invest in homes?? I dont know whats in UK but renting here in US means the money lost.. but buying house means money invested.. i still dont see why is it wise to rent.. depreciation rate cant be that much..
cybervickey Posted January 9, 2009 Posted January 9, 2009 @ them other guys in the vdo , who is laughing now .. Biatches !
Ram Posted January 9, 2009 Posted January 9, 2009 Holy Mother... Just saw the video in the OP.. If we're to believe this guy ( and we have plenty of reasons to do so), then this is just the beginning of all the mess!
Ram Posted January 9, 2009 Posted January 9, 2009 interesting read goose.. question though.. since interest rate is low, isnt it better to invest in homes?? I dont know whats in UK but renting here in US means the money lost.. but buying house means money invested.. i still dont see why is it wise to rent.. depreciation rate cant be that much.. When he says renting is better, what he means is that by not spending humongous amounts of money in buying a house and using that money to invest in other assets ( like Gold for eg.), you ROI on those assets will even offset the money you lose by renting. Meanwhile, alternatively, if you spend that money buying a house, you not only lose the money you had, you will also see negative ROI as housing prices keep tumbling.
cybervickey Posted January 10, 2009 Posted January 10, 2009 where can i buy pure gold form in the U.S ? is it safe to buy gold ? what sthe deal with gold stocks?
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 I request all the ICF-ers living North America, especially those who have been living for a few years now and have wide-ranging dollar denominated assets ( real estate, savings, govt. bonds, private equity) to spend some time listening to Peter Schiff. As much as his predictions may sound preposterous ( total collapse of the US economy, deep recession for many years, real-estate market simply disintegrates, hyper-inflation, dollar gets debased and loses it value totally), you'd be wise to pay heed to what he says. Some of you must seriously seriously consider diversifying asset base and atleast partially withdraw from USD investments. And whats more, this is probably the best time to do, given the recent dollar rally. Here's one of his recent commentaries; 0QGXDytBkHo fSmovwc-ytM
sandtest Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 What will be the effect on India if Dollar and Euro falls. Will Indian currency appreciate? is it good or bad?
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 What will be the effect on India if Dollar and Euro falls. Will Indian currency appreciate? is it good or bad? If the Dollar falls, then any investment by the Indian govt. on buying US Bonds (dont know if they have any) will be worth mere paper dust. Our trade gap will increase, as it will imports from America increase on the back of a cheaper dollar and exports fall because of a stronger rupee. But what you should be really worried about is inflation. If inflation is what it was like last year, near record highs, then that could puncture a big hole into the buyer's pocket. Besides that, service sector jobs that were outsourced from the US could be hit. Remarkably, the number of jobs being outsourced may even increase in the short-term, as companies try to cut costs even more, but the long term viability of the outsourcing market will be under serious threat. If it does collapse, it may also lead to a softening of the real-estate market, as those previously employed, highly paid IT workers cut back on their spending. It may also lead to a slow down in the car and consumer durables Industry. So potentially, it will probably lead to a slow-down in India, but it shouldnt be catastrophic. Inflation is the key though.
cybervickey Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 so where should i invest now ?if not in real state ? gold? or gold stocks?
cybervickey Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 this guy is scaring the crap outta me man !
sandtest Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 So basically Dollar fall will lead to slow down. Damn, slowdown is already visible. Many big ticket construction and infrastructure activities have been held back for the moment in India. I was expecting that in next 10 years, at least 2 dozen of free economic zones will come up in Indian cities complete with facilities and infrastructure for manufacturing, trading and business creating thousands of direct and indirect employment. Looks unlikely in present scenario. Even Reliance's ambitious plan of creating a big Special Free economic zone complete with ports, road etc. in Navi Mumbai is so far just on paper. http://www.navimumbaisez.com/
sandtest Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 Export orders to plummet after March New Delhi Exporters say orders for the first few months of the next fiscal have almost halved. Merchandise exporters claim that their order books for the next financial year look dismal as economic recession in many target markets have made buyers postpone purchases. If the situation continues, it will lead to a drastic reduction in production and layoffs, starting with temporary staff, they say. Industry representatives from engineering, textiles, handicrafts, and gems and jewellery — which make up more than 40 per cent of India’s overseas sales — say they have either half the orders for months after March 2009 or none at all. Shipments will be low even in the remaining 75 days of the current financial year, they say, adding that this will be reflected in marginal growth or even a dip in exports. “At present, export orders are down 20 per cent on an average. It takes about three months to execute an order. So export growth will continue to remain muted for the remaining months of 2008-09. For months after March, orders could become lower,†said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), a lobby group supported by the government. Exports dipped for two consecutive months ending November 2008 as demand from recession-hit markets in the United States and Europe dwindled after September. While it is almost certain that India will miss the $200-billion export target for 2008-09, it is expected that cumulative exports during the current financial year could at most touch $175 billion, as against $162 billion in the year ended March 2008. Exporters belonging to the engineering goods sector say post-March 2009 orders are down 50 per cent compared with the previous year. “The challenge is to manage production schedules with such low level of orders. The options are single shifts and layoff of casual labourers,†said Rakesh Shah, who heads a task force set up by the Engineering Export Promotion Council to tackle the current economic slowdown. The order book of Shah’s Kolkata-based agriculture machinery firm, The Nipha Group, has half the orders after March compared with the same period in the previous year. Significantly, the engineering sector contributed about 22 per cent to India’s merchandise exports and was one of the main drivers of export growth. In the engineering goods segment, auto exports are likely to be one of the worst performers. Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL), the number one exporter of cars by volumes, has orders for 24,000 four-wheelers in the three months ending March 2009, which is half the orders in the same period last year. The company expects this to worsen after March. “I’m concerned at the low export orders we have so far for the next year. Since we contribute over 90 per cent of the total volume of passenger vehicles exported from India, we need help from the government,†said HS Lheem, managing director & chief executive officer of HMIL. Maruti Suzuki, the domestic market leader, is also reported to have received lesser-than-expected orders for its newly launched A Star, while TVS has downgraded its export growth in 2009-10 by half to 10 per cent. Orders for textile items after March have also plummeted to the levels seen by the engineering sector. “The sector would have collapsed if Chinese textile exporters were not facing a bigger problem than us. But most textile exporters are yet to receive orders after March. In 2008-09, we expect a dip of 5 per cent in Indian textile exports, with yarn and garments being the worst effected,†said D K Nair, secretary general of Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI). Textiles account for nearly one-tenth of Indian exports. According to Sudhir Dhingra, chairman and managing director of garments exporting firm Orient Craft, overseas buyers are holding on to their orders at the moment. “Going by the business cycle of the sector, things will be more clear in the 15 days up to February 15 for orders that will have to be produced in the April-May period,†he said. Orders for gems and jewellery exports, which contribute nearly 10 per cent to Indian exports, have also dipped. “There are no bulk orders from big retailers. We get orders based on quarterly requirements now, and they have halved. With the Christmas season ending, we were expecting that there would be some requirement from overseas markets. Moreover, Valentine’s Day and the Chinese new year may lead to some demand,†said Vasant Mehta, chairman of the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/export-orders-to-plummet-after-march/01/09/346184/
goose Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 by way of highlighting just how bad things can get, the average price of a home in Detroit in Dec-08 was $18,000, with unemployment at 21%.
Lurker Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 by way of highlighting just how bad things can get' date=' the average price of a home in Detroit in Dec-08 was $18,000, with unemployment at 21%.[/quote'] Wouldnt be surprised at that 18,000 number. No-one is moving into Detroit today, everyone is moving out. Heck they have been doing so for almost decade and a half now. The only shining light(for me) is Detroit Airport. It was one of the busiest airports in the world during the glory days of Big 3 Auto Makers. It obviously has infrastructure in place to support it. These days not too many people fly through Detroit Airport and so for the people who do fly through Detroit International it is a breeze. You fly through a fantastic airport without much crowd and hassles. xx
Brainfade Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 no. goose, I think you are missing a zero. Here's a link from the Detroit News - Dec 31, 2008. http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081231/BIZ/812310332 Last sentence from the article: Sales of existing homes also fell in November, with the median sales price plunging a record 13.2 percent to $181,300, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
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