varun Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 After Rajiv's post somewhere regarding scenarios, I ran some simulations and came up with the following statistics. Assuming no washouts (given that the weather has been good of late). Updated after BRC beat DD: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- CSK: 100.0 DD: 100.0 BRC: 62.5 DC: 62.5 KXIP: 50.0 RR: 25.0 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 The KKR-CSK match obviously had no effects on the probabilities as CSK was already in, and KKR already out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rajiv Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Wondra full Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnterTheVoid Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Nice. What program did you use ? Mat lab ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vvvslaxman Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Matlab !!! There is something i have used. :winky: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhr123 Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 but yesterday Crap info announced that MI are out of Semi final berth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vvvslaxman Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Tomorrow we will more or less know the results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 17, 2009 Author Share Posted May 17, 2009 Nice. What program did you use ? Mat lab ? i haven't used matlab in ages.. just wrote a small perl script Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomainK Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 but yesterday Crap info announced that MI are out of Semi final berth.. Practically they are. Now if they know that they have a chance of making it still, they will choke again. May be they will win a few if they know there is nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 but yesterday Crap info announced that MI are out of Semi final berth.. HAHA IT is true' It is like praying for bermuda to beat Bangladesh remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhr123 Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 HAHA IT is true' It is like praying for bermuda to beat Bangladesh remember? Yah I do , how can we forget that day :(( .. one of the most Saddest day for ICFans :(( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goose Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 interesting. you could probably use those stats to arbitrage my odds, which i derive just by eye-balling the points table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shehezaada Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 but yesterday Crap info announced that MI are out of Semi final berth.. MI has to get every team above them and below Deccan Chargers to lose ALL their games....in other words they're hoping for about 5 games to go their way. And then they need to beat DD. If KXP can beat Deccan today, then it's all over for Mumbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin_Rulez Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 It's all over for mumbai now..... The table looks interesting .....last 4 can't be decided (only DD is certain as of now) until the last league match between DC and BRC gets completed... DC loosing close matches more often than not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 17, 2009 Author Share Posted May 17, 2009 Update after KXIP's win: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- DD: 100.0 CSK: 95.3 DC: 68.8 RR: 56.2 KXIP: 48.4 BRC: 31.2 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 So now MI is surely out of it. Battle for the 3rd and 4th place is hotting up CSK still has a slim chance of not making it (Scenarios below). They are all predicated on RR beating DD today. So if DD beats RR, CSK is 100% through as well. Support DD u Machas :P ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: DC ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: DC ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: DC ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: DC ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: BRC ------------------------- CSK Out of Semis Scenario ------------------------- DD vs RR: RR CSK vs KKR: KKR BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: BRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 17, 2009 Author Share Posted May 17, 2009 Some more stuff to chew on, so you guys can decide whom to support in the current match :P If RR Wins: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- DD: 100.0 CSK: 90.6 RR: 81.2 DC: 62.5 KXIP: 40.6 BRC: 25.0 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 If DD Wins: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- CSK: 100.0 DD: 100.0 DC: 75.0 KXIP: 56.2 BRC: 37.5 RR: 31.2 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freedom Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 excellent analysis varun. I think CSK will push up on their own credentials. they are not really dependent on others to squeeze thru for a semi final spot. But you never know what happens in this t20 format. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spectre Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Great work Varun now that the conspiracy theories can end, CSK through to SF... DC,RR,BRC, KKIX - fight for the last 2 spots and pooper queens are at the Mercy of the Superkings :hysterical: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rajan Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 CSK has booked a spot in the semis. I wud prefer them ending up as #2 by winning next 2 matches and reaching 17+ points.that is important. DC is a dangerous team , so CSK shud avoid them in the semis. DC can beat any team in semis if they reach. CSK shud take the next 2 matches seriously and can rest Murali for Ntini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freedom Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 CSK has booked a spot in the semis. I wud prefer them ending up as #2 by winning next 2 matches and reaching 17+ points.that is important. DC is a dangerous team , so CSK shud avoid them in the semis. DC can beat any team in semis if they reach. CSK shud take the next 2 matches seriously and can rest Murali for Ntini. Any team has an equal probability of winning in semis. doesnt matter if its DC or KXIP or RR. you can go down on your day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zubinpepsi Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Some more stuff to chew on, so you guys can decide whom to support in the current match :P If RR Wins: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- DD: 100.0 CSK: 90.6 RR: 81.2 DC: 62.5 KXIP: 40.6 BRC: 25.0 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 If DD Wins: ------------------- Overall percentages ------------------- CSK: 100.0 DD: 100.0 DC: 75.0 KXIP: 56.2 BRC: 37.5 RR: 31.2 MI: 0.0 KKR: 0.0 Varun, how did u calculate this?? how come RR has a lower percentage than KXIP?? when both of them have a match to play and RR is playing a weaker one compared to KXIP? edit: ok jus saw KXIP has a 1 point more than RR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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