Sachin=GOD Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 Congress’s ‘realistic’ target: 120-140 New Delhi, April 13: The Congress is counting on gains in Assam, Karnataka, Punjab and Kerala to improve on its 1999 tally of 113 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha, according to highly placed sources. They said a realistic target of 120-140 seats has been set and vice-president Rahul Gandhi was personally monitoring the party’s poll prospects every day. According to the Congress’s internal assessment, the party faces a bleak and uncertain future after May 16, when the results of the general election will be announced. It is hoping to cross the 100-seat mark and play the role of an effective Opposition under Rahul’s leadership. A section of the Congress is veering round to the view that the Narendra Modi-led alliance will be able to stitch together a coalition with the help of some regional allies known to be anti-Congress. However, Rahul is still optimistic that the Modi-led BJP will fall short of the majority mark of 272, leaving an opening for a “third frontâ€-led government, mainly consisting of regional players backed by the Congress. While Sonia Gandhi is focusing on the campaign, Rahul and his team have taken charge of the elections. Rahul is said to be taking instant decisions to fine-tune his electoral strategy. For instance, within 24 hours of levelling personal allegations against Modi, Rahul scaled down the criticism in Amethi yesterday, clarifying that he was merely stating facts mentioned in the affidavit of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate and did not wish to get personal. The change in stand was reportedly based on Team Rahul’s feedback that raking up Modi’s marital status had not gone down too well with voters. Congress veterans feel that the Manmohan Singh government’s failure to communicate and the perception that the Prime Minister had two yardsticks on morality — relating to self and his council of ministers — has harmed the UPA immensely. In retrospect, Congress insiders said, harping on Singh’s clean image appears to have been counter-productive when the Prime Minister had failed to act against tainted ministers and those accused in the 2G, coal and Commonwealth Games controversies. “Voters seem to be upset with the dual standard. Moreover, a hawkish judiciary, the media and other institutions like the CAG eroded the government’s credibility,†a senior Congress leader said, requesting anonymity. “We are paying the price of a 10-year rule. There is a huge anti-incumbency factor working against us. No amount of sops, policy initiatives and poll promises are helping,†a Congress leader involved with strategy planning said. “Nothing seems to be working for us.†The party leaders also feel Singh, Sonia and Rahul should have interacted more with party workers, the masses and the media to showcase the achievements of UPA II. Some leaders, however, feel that while it would be unfair to put the blame entirely on Singh, the PMO was a big disappointment. “It failed to accelerate the economy, take foreign policy initiatives and enhance science and technology missions,†a party leader said, wondering if PMO mandarins felt “convenient†to blame Sonia and the party for the “policy paralysisâ€. Going by the current mood in the party, it appears that fireworks are likely in the grand old party after May 16. http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140414/jsp/nation/story_18188578.jsp#.U0ttkeaSyCZ IMO Congress will slide even further if it blames MMS and shields Sonia/Rahul Gandhi after losing badly.
Number Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 100- for Cong. BJP+SAD's loss in Punjab is aap's gain.
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 hmm i somehow doubt the congress are going to make the numbers up for 140. They are being destryoed in andhra pradesh a place where they won 33 seats last time. Being reduced to 7. 120 seems feasible. The gains in karnataka and assam will probably be wiped out by the losses in delhi alone
gs Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 How can they get 100+ seats even after 10 continuous years of mismanagement?!? Beats me!!
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 How can they get 100+ seats even after 10 continuous years of mismanagement?!? Beats me!! kuch bura bhi kia to kuch acha bhi kiya hoga. sadly they got and will get screwed in Delhi. Their best performing region. The change in Delhi from 99 to 2013 has been mind blowing, yet Sheila jee was abused on national TV
G_B_ Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 I think even in 5 years time the congress are going to find it extremely hard to repeat the score of 206. Mamata Bannerjee is monopolizing WB. She is not going to ally with anybody. Cant see the major TN parties forming an alliance with anybody. Congress has collapsed in Andhra Pradesh. At max 15 seats next time around across Telangana and Seems Andhra. Down from 33 in 2009. So across these three states your talking losses of 25 seats straight away.
Khalpat Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 I think even in 5 years time the congress are going to find it extremely hard to repeat the score of 206. Mamata Bannerjee is monopolizing WB. She is not going to ally with anybody. Cant see the major TN parties forming an alliance with anybody. Congress has collapsed in Andhra Pradesh. At max 15 seats next time around across Telangana and Seems Andhra. Down from 33 in 2009. So across these three states your talking losses of 25 seats straight away. The worst part for them is they are literally finished in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan and Central India.
G_B_ Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 The worst part for them is they are literally finished in UP' date=' Bihar, Rajasthan and Central India.[/quote'] Rajasthan they can stage a comeback IMO. It all depends on how Raje governs. I wont go as far as finished cause 5 years is a long time. Raje has a chance to make Rajasthan a BJP stronghold. If she does depends very much on how she governs. The congress do have a strong cadre base in Rajasthan. So far i think Guj and MP are the only major states which can i can call as BJP strongholds. A stronghold is what i define as 15 plus years of rule by a single party (no major coalition) . In 2009 i think the congress did get something like 30 seats from these two states. Less than the BJP which still a very good count in your neighbors stronghold. In Bihar i think again it depends who wins the elections in 2016 in assembly. They will be allied to Lalu and Paswan will go with whoever has their nose ahead being the opportunist he is. A lot will depend, does the Jd(u) reform with the BJP? Bihar is not so clear. Congress can do better on the back of Lalu in Bihar. Andhra Pradesh they basically scored a major own goal. Andhra Pradesh was a Congress stronghold. YSR died. That was unfortunate but not making his son as CM was a huge huge huge own goal. Congress would still be looking at 20 plus seats in Andhra as a bare minimum. This has nothing to do with how bad congress have governed at the center. Its just a party imploding in the state. Not only will they have a severely reduced Lok sabha count and lose their state government there. There is a good chance Congress is going to be reduced to being a bit part player in Seemaandhra.
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 The more I read, hear on media, I get a feeling only one party will reach 3 figures this time. Any other reaching 3 figures will be a miracle
bulbul Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 The more I read' date=' hear on media, I get a feeling only one party will reach 3 figures this time. Any other reaching 3 figures will be a miracle[/quote'] Never underestimate con party & its various vote banks
adi B Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 cong will get 90 odd seats,UPA 120 odd.they are gone for all money this time
ravishingravi Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 Rajasthan they can stage a comeback IMO. It all depends on how Raje governs. I wont go as far as finished cause 5 years is a long time. Raje has a chance to make Rajasthan a BJP stronghold. If she does depends very much on how she governs. The congress do have a strong cadre base in Rajasthan. So far i think Guj and MP are the only major states which can i can call as BJP strongholds. A stronghold is what i define as 15 plus years of rule by a single party (no major coalition) . In 2009 i think the congress did get something like 30 seats from these two states. Less than the BJP which still a very good count in your neighbors stronghold. In Bihar i think again it depends who wins the elections in 2016 in assembly. They will be allied to Lalu and Paswan will go with whoever has their nose ahead being the opportunist he is. A lot will depend, does the Jd(u) reform with the BJP? Bihar is not so clear. Congress can do better on the back of Lalu in Bihar. Andhra Pradesh they basically scored a major own goal. Andhra Pradesh was a Congress stronghold. YSR died. That was unfortunate but not making his son as CM was a huge huge huge own goal. Congress would still be looking at 20 plus seats in Andhra as a bare minimum. This has nothing to do with how bad congress have governed at the center. Its just a party imploding in the state. Not only will they have a severely reduced Lok sabha count and lose their state government there. There is a good chance Congress is going to be reduced to being a bit part player in Seemaandhra. Actually Gujarat stronghold is overhyped. If you see vote % , congress have a damn good chance if they can have a good leader.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 24, 2014 Author Posted April 24, 2014 Growth in the Time of UPA Myths and Reality http://www.epw.in/system/files/pdf/2014_49/16/Growth_in_the_Time_of_UPA.pdf A rather surprising article.
Khalpat Posted April 24, 2014 Posted April 24, 2014 Actually Gujarat stronghold is overhyped. If you see vote % ' date=' congress have a damn good chance if they can have a good leader.[/quote'] Isn't this true for Congress all over India. They only need a good leader nothing more, with such a huge All-India base they can revive themselves anytime.
ravishingravi Posted April 24, 2014 Posted April 24, 2014 Isn't this true for Congress all over India. They only need a good leader nothing more' date=' with such a huge All-India base they can revive themselves anytime.[/quote'] Yes. But they are getting 40% of votes. That is huge. They have a genuine shot.
Khalpat Posted April 24, 2014 Posted April 24, 2014 Yes. But they are getting 40% of votes. That is huge. They have a genuine shot. Yup. but lets not confuse few dillusioned hero worshiping posters here, they will be thinking about the conspiracy as to why two Modi bhakts talking about Congress revival. :haha:
G_B_ Posted April 24, 2014 Posted April 24, 2014 Actually Gujarat stronghold is overhyped. If you see vote % ' date=' congress have a damn good chance if they can have a good leader.[/quote'] since that 40% there have been so many congress leaders defecting to the BJP that they are crippled even there. On top of which it was the infighting with the kesubhai patel faction (which is now in the bjp fold) that caused the ongress to increase its vote share. Its been 20 years now (about) since the congress formed state government in Gujarat.
asterix Posted April 25, 2014 Posted April 25, 2014 175 due to faulty EVM's and deleted voters :(( :((
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