someone Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 look, i think it will be an under performance if the BJP dont emerge as the largest party. They might even win the state outright.The very fact that have added three lesser allies tells me that the BJP feel they can flip one of their weakest regions. BJP doesn't even have agents in 60-80 seats. They simply don't have a big ground presence in MH. It's not gonna be that easy for BJP to even be the largest party. A lot for BJP again really depends on Modi. With his presence, BJP will be greater motivated and determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 BJP doesn't even have agents in 60-80 seats. They simply don't have a big ground presence in MH. It's not gonna be that easy for BJP to even be the largest party. A lot for BJP again really depends on Modi. With his presence' date=' BJP will be greater motivated and determined.[/quote'] its not just modi to be fair another ace in the BJP hole is that they do have the RSS headquartered in maharashtra. The upper echelons of the RSS are dominated by Maharashtrians. A large scale sangh deployment will add a lot of muscle to the BJP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 its not just modi to be fair another ace in the BJP hole is that they do have the RSS headquartered in maharashtra. The upper echelons of the RSS are dominated by Maharashtrians. A large scale sangh deployment will add a lot of muscle to the BJP I don't think that's the case. RSS headquarters is in Nagpur and yet it was only this LS, where BJP got the seat. Previous times, it was Congress party. And I believe RSS also said they won't actively help in state elections. Another thing, with no alliance, more options are there for individual parties. BJP could now use the Vidarbha state issue, and SS could bring back Maratha identity point. So it's gonna be interesting how each party alters and fine tune its strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFever Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 MNS was virtually finished after the Loksabha elections, with all the core voters for MNS moving back to SS. Big mistake by SS here. For the sake of 5 seats, you don't break a 25 year old alliance. But it will be very interesting outcome with every part being able to test its strength. Congress is sure to gain in Mumbai region, with the split of votes between BJP, SS and MNS. NCP hardly has any presence in Mumbai region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diga Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Any chance of NCP joining hands with BJP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Any chance of NCP joining hands with BJP? NCP can be in power with Cong, with SS or with BJP. The genius Pawar. :winky: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 MNS was virtually finished after the Loksabha elections, with all the core voters for MNS moving back to SS. Big mistake by SS here. For the sake of 5 seats, you don't break a 25 year old alliance. But it will be very interesting outcome with every part being able to test its strength. Congress is sure to gain in Mumbai region, with the split of votes between BJP, SS and MNS. NCP hardly has any presence in Mumbai region. NCP are big in the navi mumbai side. Especially Ganesh Naik and his sons. The Airoli to Vashi belt. The primary Sena stronghold in the mumbai region is Thane city. Followed by Dombivali/Kalyan. They should pick up close to 10 seats. The day the sena fails to win a seat in Thane city is the day they are dead as a party. It has wrongly been said that Dadar is the root of the sena. But Thane city has always been their strongest base. Uddhav Thakarey must contest from Thane city. It will give him the freedom to campaign the whole length of the state while being pinged in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 I don't think that's the case. RSS headquarters is in Nagpur and yet it was only this LS, where BJP got the seat. Previous times, it was Congress party. And I believe RSS also said they won't actively help in state elections. Another thing, with no alliance, more options are there for individual parties. BJP could now use the Vidarbha state issue, and SS could bring back Maratha identity point. So it's gonna be interesting how each party alters and fine tune its strategy. thats cause they never really had their own man in Nagpur. If you look at Nagpur as a case study the sangh first targetted their municipal elections. Which the BJP now has a form hold on. With Nitin Gadkari in such a prominant position the BJP in Viderbha will float the idea of statehood. They are odds on to win about 30 seats in viderbha itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 So based on the Regions Mumbai city: A straight fight between the congress and the sena. There are pockets of support for the NCP and the BJP but no major gains. MNS will play spoiler are will be the biggest threat to the sena in places like Bhandup and Dadar. RPI if they ally with the Sena may give them an edge in places like Kurla and Dhawavi. Surrounding Mumbai Region: Its quite open. NCP Navi Mumbai and Mira Road Bhayander Sena Thane Kalyan belt. BJP have a base in the tribal areas of Nanburbar and the Congress have a base in Bhiwandi. Quite an even split. MNS too have a good chance. Konkan: Straight fight between the Sena and Congress. Western Maharashtra The NCP and Congress have a base. The stronger of the two is the NCP. The shiv sena will pick up seats in urban areas such as Pune metropolitan area. But its a contest now between the NCP and the BJP + allies involving raju shetti. MNS active in urban Pune areas. Khandesh BJP are strong in rural areas (Eknath Khadse) while the urban areas such as Nashik are going to be closely contested with the sena mns bjp and ncp. If ever the MNS had a base its in this region. They govern Nashik Municipal council. Marathwada Sena to have some footing in this area and Uddhav Thakarey has made it a point to strengthen this area. But it remains a Congress v BJP fight. Viderbha A straight Congress v BJP fight. Realistically the BJP should steam roll any party in this region. If they fail to do so then they have crashed and burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Day of really big news today. This election has just been thrown wide open now. Few things are certain now: 1. All the opinion polls that have been conducted so far can now be tossed in the trash can. The assumption was that both alliances would remain intact no longer holds true. 2. All parties will know exactly where they stand in Maharashtra today. Pre-poll seat distributions were based off on age-old formulae and no party really knows how popular it is currently. Speculation: 1. Mathematically, a five-way split will benefit MNS the most. 2. Could be a make or break election for Uddhav. 3. BJP with no tall local leader as such will find it challenging to convince voters of its development agenda. 4. Can Congress revive its downward graph and pull a rabbit out of the hat? 5. Post poll alliances of non-traditional allies could be needed to resolve a stale-mate. -- One thing is for certain. These elections will be the most interesting and keenly followed in many many years. They will also be notoriously hard to call considering the complexity of a five-way vote division. Many regional leaders will face their make-or-break moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 So based on the Regions Mumbai city: A straight fight between the congress and the sena. There are pockets of support for the NCP and the BJP but no major gains. MNS will play spoiler are will be the biggest threat to the sena in places like Bhandup and Dadar. RPI if they ally with the Sena may give them an edge in places like Kurla and Dhawavi. I wouldn't generalize it this way. While what you are saying might be true, Mumbai being a cosmopolitan city has large population of non-Marathi speakers. The "Marathi manoos" that the Shiv Sena appeals to has little presence in many legislative segments and is going to be further divided between primarily Sena, MNS and BJP. Congress might just have the upper hand in Mumbai. Also, a point to note is that the traditional non-Marathi voter in Mumbai that would have stayed away from BJP due to fear of the Sena, might now consider voting for the BJP, especially Gujarati and other voters having origins in north India. So, you might not want to write off BJP from Mumbai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The manner in which Maharashtra alliances were carved out, this will not be a big loss for anyone except Shiv Sena. It will be a huge benefit for MNS. I think BJP will be able to win 100 seats to form the government in coalition- as a corollary any party which wins close to 100 seats will form the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The-Ramones Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 The manner in which Maharashtra alliances were carved out' date=' this will not be a big loss for anyone except Shiv Sena. It will be a huge benefit for MNS. I think BJP will be able to win 100 seats to form the government in coalition- as a corollary any party which wins close to 100 seats will form the government.[/quote'] I feel they will win 130 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 The MSM is trying to make it SS vs BJP. Like BJP said, their focus is on defeating NCP/Congress, won't necessary campaign against SS. SS really do gets get its focus and remember the main objective/target was the corruption, mismanagement of NCP/Congress. And MSM loves the phrase "secular votes". What a disgusting propaganda, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 26, 2014 Author Share Posted September 26, 2014 I wouldn't generalize it this way. While what you are saying might be true, Mumbai being a cosmopolitan city has large population of non-Marathi speakers. The "Marathi manoos" that the Shiv Sena appeals to has little presence in many legislative segments and is going to be further divided between primarily Sena, MNS and BJP. Congress might just have the upper hand in Mumbai. Also, a point to note is that the traditional non-Marathi voter in Mumbai that would have stayed away from BJP due to fear of the Sena, might now consider voting for the BJP, especially Gujarati and other voters having origins in north India. So, you might not want to write off BJP from Mumbai. But thats where the RPI can come it. Bal T did not play caste politics. Uddhav has heavily farmed the Dalit vote. This is the not the sena of old simply reliant on marathi language. You need to give Uddhav some credit. I dont like him but he has maneuvered well removing a traditional congress plank. The likes of Shevale have made tremendous progress within the sena. In a first past the post system even 25% of the vote wins the seat. That the sena has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 The manner in which Maharashtra alliances were carved out' date=' this will not be a big loss for anyone except Shiv Sena. It will be a huge benefit for MNS. I think BJP will be able to win 100 seats to form the government in coalition- as a corollary any party which wins close to 100 seats will form the government.[/quote'] true.bjp might well win close to 125-130 seats and get support from mns who are likely to produce their best result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seedhi Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 The manner in which Maharashtra alliances were carved out' date=' this will not be a big loss for anyone except Shiv Sena. It will be a huge benefit for MNS. I think [b']BJP will be able to win 100 seats to form the government in coalition- as a corollary any party which wins close to 100 seats will form the government.This is really bad for the BJP, considering the last time you made a prediction about elections how it panned out. Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The-Ramones Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Reaction of SS has been very interesting. All the posturing and blustering is all but over. They sense that they have been out manoeuvred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFever Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 I wouldn't generalize it this way. While what you are saying might be true, Mumbai being a cosmopolitan city has large population of non-Marathi speakers. The "Marathi manoos" that the Shiv Sena appeals to has little presence in many legislative segments and is going to be further divided between primarily Sena, MNS and BJP. Congress might just have the upper hand in Mumbai. Also, a point to note is that the traditional non-Marathi voter in Mumbai that would have stayed away from BJP due to fear of the Sena, might now consider voting for the BJP, especially Gujarati and other voters having origins in north India. So, you might not want to write off BJP from Mumbai. Yes, this may be true. Most of the anti-Shiv Sena vote, which would have otherwise gone to congress in case of an alliance, will most probably go to BJP this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marco Polo Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Lot of you guys overestimating BJP here. Shiv sena would do better. Wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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