G_B_ Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 and as i said before, i think India grew in FY2015 by 7.3% as per the finance ministry I would cut between 0.5% to 1% for the real growth rate. So a quote of 6.3% to 6.7% should cover the bases. Anything below that IMO ignores the immense gains from a drop in global oil prices (and all the indriect benefits such as rate cuts) and a general upward trend in the GDP. Edit: It appears the government will probably revise downwards the Q4 numbers as more companies file in their numbers. Based on twitter from the people I follow many are saying 6.6% should be the true growth rate for Fy2015 based on a revision. Which is fair. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/7-5-Q4-GDP-growth-may-be-revised-downward-on-poor-corporates-numbers/articleshow/47507828.cms
G_B_ Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 India cuts interest rates for a third time this year The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut interest rates for the third time this year to help boost growth in Asia's third largest The central bank cut its key repo rate to 7.25% from 7.50%, as widely expected, after taking similar moves in January and March this year. The repo rate is the level at which the central bank lends to commercial banks. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32970489 as per most speculation and estimates the final rate cut of 0.25% basis points is expected to be on 4th of August if at all. Before Rajan shuts up shop for a while.
mishra Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 This is what is relevant to the ordinary investors : Next year earnings estimates have also been downgraded . http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/anaemic-numbers-earn-india-inc-a-downgrade/78947/?SocialMedia ^ EPS means nothing without P/E. The economist hasnt even talked about that. Also even then you cant conclusively say anything as that figure further diluted by investor confidenceand hence Share price may be inflated/deflated? My understanding is correct? Right?
The Outsider Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 lets see a. it reduces indias import bill improving current account deficit. this leads to less pressures on the rupee. In the space of a year India's CAD went from about 5% during the highs of FY2012 of to less than -1.5% of GDP for FY 2015. Which is a big jump. b. it reduces inflation. this in turn causes rate cuts. boosting natural growth Edit:Rajan has just cut the repo rate by 0.25% today an hour or so ago. Each rate cut of 0.25% such as this is expected to add about 0.25- 0.5% to the GDP growth. In FY year 2014-2015 i do believe Rajan made two rate cuts of 0.25%. c. it has a knockon effect of reducing the price of other commodities. Ie it acts as a global barometer for commodity prices. India is also a major importer of other commodities. d. it reduces fiscal deficit in our budget. This allows our government to boost say spending in other areas such as infrastructure. oil fell from highs of 115 to 45 during the financial year 2014-2015 before stabilising in the 60s. As per many agencies and banks a $10 fall in oil leads to a 0.1-0.2% extra growth in india in terms of direct growth. In addition there are indirect benefits such as sentiment (more FDI inflows etc) lastly in econometric terms gdp growth is a difference stationary process. whereby shocks to the gdp growth equation are permanent. when u say extapolation what exactly do u mean. As gdp growth is a non stationary variable i need to know what sort of extapolation u are talking about. GDP is a measure of production. Some of the factors listed above do not effect production directly. Agriculture forms around 20% of India's GDP and grew at 0.2%. This means that the rest of the sectors grew at 9.25%. That level of growth looks completely different on the ground and in terms of other indicators. http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-inc-s-sales-profit-growth-weakest-in-2-yrs-115060100033_1.html Look at the profit and sales numbers in the above article for example. A drop in profit and a 6% growth in sales is not reflective of an economy growing at 9.25% (taking that figure since agriculture is irrelevant to most companies) or even 7.5%. The article also mentions historical figures associated with such growth has been 15% revenue and 20% profit growth. By extrapolation I meant comparison of the old and new methods of calculating GDP. 4.7% of the old method was equivalent to 6.9% of the new in 2014. How can 7.4% of the new method in 2015 be equivalent to 6.5-7% of the old as you are claiming?
amiret Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 ^ EPS means nothing without P/E. I am not sure what you mean by this . P/E is the multiple at which the stock or index trades at. P/E fluctuates based on the index/stock price movements . The article is talking about Net Profits of companies NOT share prices quoted in the market. FACT : Corporates have reported lower profits (as mentioned above). Next year's forecasts have also been downgraded . The economist hasnt even talked about that. next year's forecasts reported in that article are based on Bloomberg consensus estimates . The current trailing or forward P/E can be calculated by us . It is the EPS figure which we need . For eg. Sensex EPS forecast for next year is 1763 ,based on today's closing price the sensex is trading at a P/E of 15.4 times Fy16 forecasted earnings . Also even then you cant conclusively say anything as that figure further diluted by investor confidenceand hence Share price may be inflated/deflated? Last Qtr and year EPS figures are based on Audited figures reported by companies. Again the article is talking about Net Profits of companies NOT share prices quoted in the market.
G_B_ Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 GDP is a measure of production. Some of the factors listed above do not effect production directly. Agriculture forms around 20% of India's GDP and grew at 0.2%. This means that the rest of the sectors grew at 9.25%. That level of growth looks completely different on the ground and in terms of other indicators. http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-inc-s-sales-profit-growth-weakest-in-2-yrs-115060100033_1.html Look at the profit and sales numbers in the above article for example. A drop in profit and a 6% growth in sales is not reflective of an economy growing at 9.25% (taking that figure since agriculture is irrelevant to most companies) or even 7.5%. The article also mentions historical figures associated with such growth has been 15% revenue and 20% profit growth. By extrapolation I meant comparison of the old and new methods of calculating GDP. 4.7% of the old method was equivalent to 6.9% of the new in 2014. How can 7.4% of the new method in 2015 be equivalent to 6.5-7% of the old as you are claiming? In 2012-2013 Agriculture was 13.7% of GDP http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-08-30/news/41618996_1_gdp-foodgrains-allied-sectors Its probably fallen a lot more since. If i had to make a guess its about 12% of GDP, maybe even less wont be surprised if 10% with the new base year. I think the 4.7% was always going to be revised upwards. I agree that it was not 6.9%. Those numbers I disagree with as well. As per most economists it would have been in line to be revised upwards to about 5.1%. Similarly this 7.3% growth will be revised downwards to about IMO 6.3-6.7%. With many on twitter claiming it should be about 6.6% Now if we consider the the difference between 5.1% and 6.6% that 1.5% increase in between can be explained by the fall in oil prices and rate cuts and the general improvement in Indian macroeconomic conditions. While corporate growth is sluggish to say the least as have exports. There has been growth in FDI and other areas to explain this growth. Its not just India mind you, every South Asian nation has seen a healthy increase in its GDP growth rates due to a fall in oil. The region as a whole has seen a good bounce. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/10/06/led-india-south-asia-economic-growth-accelerate India has had a bigger bounce because oil forms a bigger % of our imports.
mishra Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 ^ Got the point. Cheers! Could it be attributed to rupee being stronger. I remember that during last year of MMS era i was consistently getting over Rs 100 per pound on my remittances. I am still not convinced that a reduction in forecasted NET profit is bad thing as long as new jobs (i.e. expansion) are being added.
amiret Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj : Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised "very strongly" the issue of the China-Pakistan economic corridor during his visit to Beijing and told them that it is "unacceptable", Answering queries at a press conference, she said the government had summoned the Chinese envoy over the $46 billion economic corridor that is to run through Pakistani Kashmir. "Prime minster during his visit took up the issue very firmly and spoke very strongly that the CPEC going through PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) is unacceptable," she said what was the Chinese response Sushmajee ? :hmmm:
amiret Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 NEW DELHI: This June 21, a 35-minute mass demonstration of 15 yoga asanas by 45,000 school children, government officials, diplomats, army personnel and NCC cadets, led by PM Narendra Modi himself at Rajpath will possibly lead to a record of sorts. The event has already been registered as an entry into the Guinness Book of World Records,.....if government sources are to be believed, every inch preparation to make the event a grand spectacle is directed at that. "The PM is insistent that the event makes an impact internationally," a government official said. An AYUSH official part of the inter-ministerial group organising the function said they were "trying very hard to get the record set but the rules of the world record are tough." Pradhan Drameybaaz at it again Forcing Govt officials to set Guiness world records , :facepalm: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47521366.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
G_B_ Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 Australia, New Zealand back Japan's regional trade pact to bat for FDI in e-commerce in India NEW DELHI: Australia and New Zealand have joined Japan in trying to persuade India to open up its rapidly growing ecommerce sector, forecast to reach $300 billion by 2030, to overseas investment. Both countries have backed Japan's proposal to include e-commerce in the 16-nation regional trade pact that's being negotiated. Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47507518.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Regional-Cooperation-and-Economic-Partnership
mishra Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 Pradhan Drameybaaz at it again Forcing Govt officials to set Guiness world records , :facepalm: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47521366.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst For gods sake, Apart from Non-violence day,Tell me which day in the world is celebrated because its source comes from India. Have some pride and share it with world. What is wrong in advertising Yoga? Yoga pants are allready in demand all over worls :angelic:
amiret Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 For gods sake' date=' Apart from Non-violence day,Tell me which day in the world is celebrated because its source comes from India. What is wrong in advertising Yoga? [u']Yoga pants are allready in demand all over worls :angelic: you have already given the answer . Yoga is already immensely popular . and it had nothing to do with having a special day or wasting Public money on some ridiculous event . In a recent meeting wherein the PM took stock of the preparations, he is said to have told bureaucrats not to worry about the budget Govt officials are not there to set Guiness world records . Who gives a damn about these silly records anyway ? This has very little to do with Yoga and more centered on the glorification of 1 man and inflating his already Bloated Ego .
randomGuy Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 Having World yoga day is better than world poetry day or English day #Justsaying
asterix Posted June 3, 2015 Posted June 3, 2015 I agree with Amiret... Every now and then Modi or his event managers come up with a grand event... Looks like another drubbing awaits in Bihar, after Delhi...
mishra Posted June 4, 2015 Posted June 4, 2015 Kolkata to Agartala via Dhaka. Modi connecting peoples. :hatsoff: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/kolkata-to-agartala-via-bangladesh/article7274995.ece Soon, bus service from Kolkata to Agartala via Bangladesh
amiret Posted June 5, 2015 Posted June 5, 2015 Speak only with our nod, govt tells UGC boss NEW DELHI: The HRD ministry has severely reprimanded UGC chairperson Ved Prakash for his outbursts against Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA) before Parliament's standing committee on May 26 and asked him to take prior permission to articulate views contrary to the government's policies. Criticizing the flagship programme at the meeting, Prakash said because of it the programme money was not reaching the institutions directly with the state governments having become "middlemen". In a terse letter, former education secretary SN Mohanty, who has since been transferred, told Prakash that "government's position including policy is articulated in unison and no discordant note is voiced". Completely agree . UGC Chairperson, Mr. Ved Prakash is a Puppet and must not voice any criticism before any Parliamentary committee We can't afford to have anarchy where Govt servants are allowed to express their own opinions.
mishra Posted June 5, 2015 Posted June 5, 2015 So finally, This government has got dragon to breathe. Long overdue, Atleast now rest of wold will understand how big of a bully China is. Grabbing land from every neighbour http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-defends-projects-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-objects-to-indias-oil-exploration-in-south-china-768667 China Defends Projects in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Objects to India's Oil Exploration in South China Sea eijing: China has defended its investments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had strongly objected to during his visit to that country last month. Beijing has also virtually rejected PM Modi's push to clarify the Line of Actual Control or LAC. Beijing today said it prefers a pact with India on a code of conduct to maintain peace along the border rather than clarification of the LAC proposed by PM Modi. Deputy Director General of the Asian Affairs at the Foreign Ministry Huang Xilian, outlining China's first public reaction to PM Modi's proposal, said both sides should try to reach an agreement on the code of conduct, as attempts to clarify mutual positions on the LAC had "encountered difficulties" in the past.
seedhi Posted June 6, 2015 Posted June 6, 2015 Speak only with our nod' date= govt tells UGC boss Completely agree . UGC Chairperson, Mr. Ved Prakash is a Puppet and must not voice any criticism before any Parliamentary committee We can't afford to have anarchy where Govt servants are allowed to express their own opinions.No no, the ideal system is when EVERY govt official is ALWAYS allowed to speak his or her own mind. For example, in the court the counsel representing the govt should be allowed to speak against the govt position. Similarly, our ambassador to pakistan should be allowed to favor pakistan over India if he/she chooses to. Bureaucrats who are supposed to oversee a welfare scheme should be allowed to trash it in public. That will be "swaraj".
seedhi Posted June 6, 2015 Posted June 6, 2015 Stupendous growth in tourists arriving on E-visas Total number of 1,10,657 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa during January- May 2015 as compared to 9,841 during January- May 2014, registering a growth of 1024.4% The Government of India launched Tourist Visa on Arrival (TVoA) enabled by Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA), presently known as e-Tourist Visa scheme, on 27th November 2014 for 43 countries. The Government extended this Scheme to the citizens of Guyana and Sri Lanka in January, 2015 and April, 2015, respectively. The e-Tourist Visa facility is extended to the nationals of 31 countries in May, 2015. The following are the important highlights of e-Tourist Visa during May, 2015: (i) During the month of May 2015, a total of 15,659 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa as compared to 1,833 during the month of May 2014, registering a growth of 754.3%. (ii) During January- May 2015, a total of 1,10,657 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa as compared to 9,841 during January- May 2014, registering a growth of 1024.4% . (iii) This high growth may be attributed to introduction of e-Tourist Visa for 76 countries as against coverage of earlier TVoA scheme for 12 countries. (iv) The percentage shares of top 10 source countries availing e-Tourist Visa facility during May 2015 were as follows: USA (37.82%), Germany (9.35%), Australia (8.95%), Russian Federation (5.85%), Republic of Korea (4.30%), UAE (3.53%), Mexico (3.16%), Ukraine (3.01%), Japan (2.89%) and Singapore (2.43%). (v) The percentage shares of different ports in tourist arrivals on e-Tourist Visa during May 2015 were as follows: New Delhi (43.65%), Mumbai (22.14%), Bengaluru (9.66%), Chennai (7.25%), Hyderabad (4.55%), Kochi (3.97%) , Goa (3.81%), Kolkata (3.24%) and Trivandrum (1.73%). http://pib.nic.in/newsite/mbErel.aspx?relid=122323
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