Stan AF Posted July 27, 2019 Posted July 27, 2019 How the automobile slowdown impacts the Indian steel industry Updated : July 11, 2019 01:46 PM IST According to the World Steel Association, a typical car comprises around 900 kg of steel, 34 percent of which is used in the body structure and 23 percent in the engine block and gear mechanism. On most estimates, more than 10 percent of UK steel is consumed by local car makers. In the US and Germany, the proportion is far higher at around 25 percent. Aruna Sharma The automobile industry in India has earned several superlatives in manufacturing over the year. It is the seventh largest maker of commercial vehicles, the largest for two-wheelers and recorded the fourth largest sales in the country on a year-on-year basis until 2017. Exports in automobile grew at 15.54 percent during April 2018-February 2019. Production increased by 9.84 percent with 26.26 million vehicle units being produced and expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.05 percent until 2026. Steel is one of the major inputs in auto manufacture. India is the second largest producer of steel and do have indigenous supply. However there is still a deficit of high-end steel, which needs to be imported until one develops capacity by investments on international steel producers or through the path of joint ventures. The biggest concern at this moment of time is the close down of auto manufacturing due to slash in demand in the world and also in India. According to the World Steel Association, a typical car comprises around 900 kg of steel, 34 percent of which is used in the body structure and 23 percent in the engine block and gear mechanism. On most estimates, more than 10 percent of UK steel is consumed by local car makers. In the US and Germany, the proportion is far higher at around 25 percent. Almost 14 percent of ordinary carbon steel and 25 percent of special steel that Japan produces is destined for the country’s carmakers. But prices of hot-rolled coil, the base steel product used in car manufacturing, have slumped in nearly all major markets. In the US, Midwest HRC prices have dropped to $570 per tonne, down 37 percent from a year earlier, according to S&P Global Platts. Prices are now well below where they were before the 25 percent import tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration in March last year. There is a talk of enhancement of safeguard duties. The basic principle in imposing anti-dumping, safe-guard duties or import related duties, has to be what is not made in India at all or of desired quality or not in sufficient quantity should be encouraged to import with no additional cost. Any duty on same enhances the cost of value addition downstream and thus makes the consumer goods expensive. At this time when auto sector is in doldrums, the enhanced input cost by imposing extra safeguard duties on high end steel will to the woes of the auto sector besides that of making steel pipes. The 'Make in India' initiative got its boost by using India-made pipes for gas transport and for oil extraction work. But then, the requisite raw material price needed in sufficient quantity cannot be made expensive by adding additional duties. It will only enhance the cost to the end-user. The principles to use for putting safeguard duty has to be of the thumb rule—that what is not made in India, is input for value addition, or not made in quantities or quality required should not be made more expensive by putting extra duties on the same. India's manufacture sector is growing. Twin philosophy of adding to the capabilities of manufacturing, and till that time, ensuring downstream industry flourishes, makes the investments sustainable. The recent budget has given boost to infrastructure sector. However, high-end steel, scrap and coking coal will require hand-holding in the duty structure. The thumb rule as to what we do not have in India, or manufacture in required quantities should not be made more expensive for value-addition by imposition of duty in any form i.e. safeguard duty, import or customs duty. Coking coal, stainless steel scrap, steel scrap, ferro-nickel, hot-roll coil for API grade steel, for solar panels, for auto have to be considered, and simultaneously, with scrap policy in place, encouraging expansion and new additions of steel plants including FDI will taper these advantages extended to achieve target of 'Make in India'. Aruna Sharma is a former secretary at Ministry of Steel, Government of India. The views are personal. https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/how-the-automobile-slowdown-impacts-the-indian-steel-industry-3969371.htm
Stan AF Posted July 27, 2019 Posted July 27, 2019 FY18 fiscal deficit at 5.85% of GDP vs 3.46% reported by government, says CAG Economy Updated Jul 25, 2019 | 12:05 IST | ET Now Digital CAG has also found that the revenue deficit in FY18 was actually 3.48% of GDP as against 2.59% reported by the government Representational image Key Highlights CAG has said that government's deficit figures may be considerable higher than what is stated in the Budget document According to CAG's calculation, actual fiscal deficit for FY18 should be 5.85% of GDP vs 3.46% reported by the government The government auditor has included loans provided by state-owned companies for social-welfare schemes in its calculation New Delhi: The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has pegged the fiscal deficit for the financial year 2017-18 at 5.85% of gross domestic product (GDP) as against 3.46% estimated by the government. In a presentation to the 15th Finance Commission (FC) on July 8, the government auditor has said that the central government's key deficit figures may be considerably higher than those stated in the Union Budget presented on July 5. CAG has asked whether the extra-budgetary resources accounted for in the Budget reflect the correct picture, according to a report in a business daily. The government auditor has also found that the revenue deficit in FY18 was actually 3.48% of GDP as against 2.59% reported by the Centre. ETNowNews.com has not independently reviewed the copy of CAG presentation. According to the news report, CAG estimated off-budget borrowings for revenue expenditure at 0.96% of GDP, and off-budget borrowings for capital expenditure at 1.43% of GDP. If these two numbers are added then the deficit figure will reflect a sharp spike. CAG's calculations include outstanding liabilities of various public sector units that borrow to cover expenditure on government programmes. These outstanding liabilities include arrears on food and fertilizer subsidies that the government has not paid to PSUs such as Food Corporation of India, the report mentioned. The government auditor in its calculation has also included loans provided by state-owned companies for social-welfare schemes such as loans given by oil marketing companies to the beneficiaries of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) in FY18. Similarly, the auditor has included liabilities of Power Finance Corporation, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, National Highway Authority of India as well as off-budget borrowings for bank recapitalization in its deficit calculations. Worth mentioning here is that the nature and extent of India's fiscal situation were discussed at RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in June. According to the minutes of June MPC available on RBI website, member Chetan Ghate said, “…fiscal prestidigitation or sleight of hand may contribute to our own version of a doom-loop, i.e., by pushing expenditure off-budget to meet deficit targets and then recourse to borrowing from the national small saving fund by state entities…”. Viral Acharya, who quit soon after the June MPC meeting, said,"…estimates of overall public sector borrowing requirement — which appropriately accounts for extra budgetary resources and other off-balance sheet borrowings of Central and state governments — have now reached between 8%-9% of GDP…”. Differing with these observations, the RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had said at that meeting, “…over the last few years, the Central government has by and large followed a policy of fiscal prudence. It has adhered to the fiscal deficit glide path in the last five years, though at a somewhat slower pace than committed earlier.” Das had also argued that public sector borrowings should be “viewed differently” as most borrowings are for “capital expenditure”. https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/article/fy18-fiscal-deficit-at-5-85-of-gdp-vs-3-46-reported-by-government-says-cag/458832
retired_hurt Posted July 29, 2019 Posted July 29, 2019 (edited) No discussion about the RTI amendment bill passed by the houses? Edited July 29, 2019 by retired_hurt
Stan AF Posted July 30, 2019 Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) Markets may continue to fall as foreign investors flee FPI outflow from equities was Rs 14,382.59 crore during this month while inflow was Rs 10,624.15 crore in debt segment Updated: Jul 29, 2019, 06:10 AM IST Amid selling pressure from the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), coupled with weak corporate earnings results, the domestic equity market may continue its downward trend. Although key benchmark indices closed nominally higher on Friday, analysts feel the market may fall for the fourth session today. Overseas investors snapped their five-month buying trend in July as their net outflow from the capital markets stood at Rs 3,758.44 crore. As per the data available till July 26, FPI outflow from equities was Rs 14,382.59 crore during this month while inflow was Rs 10,624.15 crore in debt segment. FALLING KNIFE FPI outflow from equities was Rs 14,382.59 crore during this month while inflow was Rs 10,624.15 crore in debt segment For this week, the benchmark index is still overall weak on charts and could find support around 11100-11150 levels According to an analyst, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the market sentiment may remain weak on account of consistent selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs)/FPIs and dismal quarterly earnings. "With no change on the surcharge on the super-rich, FII selling only gained pace. Markets will now keep a close watch on the global macros, Federal Open Market Committee meet on Wednesday, and on the remaining of the quarterly earnings. Though ICICI Bank has reported a strong quarter, it is to see how it pans out during the week as more quarter results are to come in. Auto stocks will continue to be in pressure until festive demand picks up in September onwards," the analyst said. In June, FPIs infused a net Rs 10,384.54 crore, Rs 9,031.15 crore in May, Rs 16,093 crore in April, Rs 45,981 crore in March and Rs 11,182 crore in February into the capital markets (including both equity and debt). According to Romesh Tiwari, head of research, CapitalAim, Nifty was bearish for the entire week. The index remained bearish below the 120-day moving averages on the daily chart. On Friday, Nifty traded mixed, but it managed to close at 11284.30 levels with nominal gains of 32.15 points, or 0.29%, on a daily basis. "For the next week, the benchmark index is still overall weak on charts and could find support around 11100-11150 levels. The index is sustaining below the rising channel on the daily chart below the 120-day moving average and consolidating there within a narrow range of almost 200 points on the same chart. If the index sustains below 11200 levels, then further downward movements will be triggered," Tiwari said. He said the rise in the geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, combined with weakness in Indian currency against the US dollar, could keep the domestic market around the lower levels and crude prices are edging higher on concerns about supply disruptions. Besides, disappointing corporate earnings are also adding to the weakness of the benchmark index. Weak monsoon in the major parts of the country is also weakening the sentiments. The broader indices underperformed more than the key benchmark indices, with midcap and smallcap indices losing over 8% and 6%, respectively, since July 1. https://www.dnaindia.com/business/report-markets-may-continue-to-fall-as-foreign-investors-flee-2776765 Edited July 30, 2019 by Stan AF
Stan AF Posted July 30, 2019 Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) India May Be In The Midst Of A Structural Slowdown, Warns Kotak’s Sanjeev Prasad Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/economy-finance/india-may-be-in-the-midst-of-a-structural-slowdown-warns-kotaks-sanjeev-prasad Copyright © BloombergQuint The Indian economy has been running on two engines over the past few years—private consumption and government spending. With private consumption growth weakening and government finances constrained, the slowdown in the Indian economy may be structural and protracted in nature, said Sanjeev Prasad, managing director and co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, in a conversation with BloombergQuint. Prasad believes the slowdown in consumption that India is witnessing is a reflection of moderate growth in household income, together with higher taxes. Over the past few years, there has been a sharp decline in the household savings rate, as the share of consumption in household income has risen. Beyond a point, however, households will start to pull back on consumption as savings fall, he said. Edited excerpts of the interview: A Structural Slowdown? In your latest report, you said India’s economic slowdown may be structural in nature and hence more protracted. Can you explain your view? Our view is that the slowdown is more a structural slowdown than a mere cyclical one. If you look at GDP composition, then typically there are four big elements —private consumption, investment, govern Our view is that the slowdown is more a structural slowdown than a mere cyclical one. If you look at GDP composition, then typically there are four big elements —private consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. The two elements which are pushing India’s GDP growth have been household consumption and government spending. Of late, we have started seeing a slowdown of both these drivers. Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/economy-finance/india-may-be-in-the-midst-of-a-structural-slowdown-warns-kotaks-sanjeev-prasad Copyright © BloombergQuint A great read Quite a long interview though. Edited July 30, 2019 by Stan AF
Stan AF Posted July 30, 2019 Posted July 30, 2019 Sluggish animal spirits of economy reflect how badly India is struggling with slowdown Services activity contracted for first time in 13 months in June, adding to struggles in reviving demand in everything from cars to bank loans. ANIRBAN NAG Updated: 29 July, 2019 8:32 am IST Shoppers walk through South City Mall in Kolkata | Brent Lewin | Bloomberg Mumbai: India’s economy remained sluggish in June, with the slowdown becoming more pervasive amid a slump in services and a plunge in exports. Services activity contracted for the first time in 13 months, adding to India’s struggles in reviving consumer demand in everything from cars to bank loans. Eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News showed the economy lacked momentum, with the overall activity dot remaining unchanged from a month ago. The dashboard is a measure of “animal spirits,” a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action. Given the absence of any fiscal stimulus in Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget this month, the onus is now on the central bank to spur growth that slowed to a five-year low of 5.8% in the first three months of 2019. The Monetary Policy Committee is due to decide on interest rates Aug. 7, when it will also review its 7% growth forecast for the current fiscal year that began April 1. Also read: Indian economy is resilient, signs are good – full text of RBI governor Das interview Here are the details of the dashboard: Business Activity India’s purchasing managers index for services signaled a contraction in the industry for the first time since May 2018, dropping to 49.6 last month. A reading under 50 indicates a contraction in an industry that accounts for more than half of the nation’s gross domestic product. Manufacturing activity also weakened, a separate PMI survey showed, dragging down the composite index to 50.8 in June from 51.7 in May. Input cost trends were more or less muted, with prices rising marginally across the two sectors, the surveys showed. Inflation remains subdued with latest data showing underlying price pressures — which strips out the volatile food and fuel costs — abating, as demand cooled. Exports Exports shrank nearly 10% in June from a year earlier, the worst contraction since January 2016, amid waning global demand and trade tensions, while imports fell 9.1% as oil prices dropped. The underlying figures paint a worrying picture: imports of capital goods, such as transport equipment and machinery, were dull given weak domestic spending. That means a revival in India’s investment cycle is still far away. Consumer Activity Consumer spending showed little signs of a recovery. Passenger car sales fell 24% in June from a year ago — down for an eighth month — while heavy vehicles like trucks dropped 12%. Weak sales are leading to job losses as major manufacturers cut production and shut factories temporarily. Sluggish consumer demand and tardy investment led to a slowdown in demand for bank loans. Overall credit growth slowed to 12% in June from 12.7% in May, and is down from 14.2% at the beginning of April, according to central bank data. The Ci ti India Financial Conditions Index, a liquidity indicator, showed overall conditions were improving in June after remaining fairly tight in April and May. Industrial Activity Growth in India’s core infrastructure sector, which constitutes 40% of total industrial production, eased to 5.1% in May from 6.3% in April. Industrial output growth eased to 3.1% in May from 4.3% in April, with production of consumer durables and capital goods both weighing down activity. Both the numbers are reported with a one month lag. – Bloomberg https://theprint.in/economy/sluggish-animal-spirits-of-economy-reflect-how-badly-india-is-struggling-with-slowdown/269155/
Stan AF Posted July 31, 2019 Posted July 31, 2019 The only thing we know about a 'no deal' with China is that it would be terrible for the world's economy Linette LopezJul 31, 2019, 00:56 IST President Donald Trump talks with reporters before departing for an event to celebrate the 400th anniversary celebration of the first representative assembly at Jamestown, on the South Lawn of the White House, Tuesday, July 30, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)Associated Press President Trump said that it's possible the US never reaches a trade deal with China. The question is, what does that mean? It could mean tariffs on $250 billion more of Chinese goods, but it could also quickly escalate, according to experts. Whatever happens will be terrible for the global economy and exacerbate the problems slowing it down as we speak. President Donald Trump early Tuesday said it's possible the United States would reach "no deal at all" with China, putting significant pressure on talks set to kick off in Shanghai less than a day later. "I think China is willing to give up a lot, but that doesn't mean I'm willing to accept it," he said before boarding Marine One for a trip to Virginia. It's unclear exactly what a no deal situation with China would entail. All we know is that any of the likely outcomes would be incredibly painful for the global economy. US GDP data shows that growth slowed sharply last quarter from the quarter before. Much of that slowdown can be attributed to a 5.2% drop in exports and shrinking business investment due to uncertainty plaguing global markets. "Trump's no deal with China will be however he defines it at the time," Chad Bown, a fellow at the Peterson Institute, told Business Insider. "Right now, that is tariffs on $250 billion of imports from China. But it could quickly turn into tariffs on $500 billion of imports." In other words, a no deal scenario would mean commercial relations between the two largest economies in the world could collapse to a degree we've yet to experience in this current trade war. That in turn would make the problems slowing down the global economy even worse. Someone better blink Trump claims that China reneged on promises to buy US agricultural goods as the two sides continue to negotiate. But China claims that it has been keeping up its side of the bargain in this respect, while also maintaining a strong negotiating position. Specifically, China has not budged from the three demands it made of the US when talks collapsed in in May of this year: China demands the US remove all tariffs on Chinese goods. China demands that the amount of goods it must purchase from the US be realistic. China demands that its "sovereignty and dignity" be preserved. US negotiators have not given any indication that these are demands the US is willing to concede to. Meanwhile China has added a more hawkish negotiator to its trade team, Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, who framed the negotiations as a part of the China's "spirit of struggle." Chinese media and President Xi Jinping have used the language of historical struggle to describe the situation as well. The tough talk comes despite the fact that China's economy is showing signs of fatigue. The trade war is finally starting to show, according to analysts, and troubles that hit the country's private sector at the end of last year are starting to reemerge. "After recovering for two years, China's growth engine, the private sector, stalled again in 2019," analysts at HSBC wrote in a recent note to clients. "A range of indicators, from PMIs, Industrial Production to investment growth, decelerated in the first five months of 2019. June's data, while better, does not look sustainable. Falling industrial sector prices suggest to us that activity is still on a slowing trend. We estimate that real manufacturing capex growth peaked in December 2018 and has continued to slow since then." Weakness in China and the US would likely spread to the rest of the world, causing major headaches for central banks, governments, and private companies around the globe. Analysts at Societe Generale estimate that an "all-out" trade war could shave as much as 0.3% off global GDP and warned the battering it would give to economic confidence could make the situation worse than expected. JPMorgan analysts Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman expressed similar concerns in a note to clients earlier this month. "The central factor weighing on global growth is a business sentiment slump related to geopolitical uncertainty, primarily trade conflicts," the analysts wrote. "This drag has already produced a material softening in global capex growth and a disruption of Asian supply chains. As a result, global factory output has been persistently weak, recording three consecutive quarters of roughly 1% annualized growth. What happens next will depend partly on whether trade tensions, along with other geopolitical flashpoints, intensify." https://www.businessinsider.in/The-only-thing-we-know-about-a-no-deal-with-China-is-that-it-would-be-terrible-for-the-worlds-economy/articleshow/70457337.cms
Stan AF Posted July 31, 2019 Posted July 31, 2019 (edited) Angry Rahul Bajaj criticises Centre for falling demand, private investment The 81 year-old billionaire businessman did not mince words while highlighting the challenges faced by the auto industry, which recorded its eight consecutive months of sales decline Swaraj Baggonkar @swarajsb Bajaj Auto Chairman Rahul Bajaj criticised the Centre’s lack of effort towards arresting falling demand and boosting private investments. He was speaking to shareholders at the company's 12th Annual General Meeting. The 81 year-old billionaire businessman did not mince words while highlighting the challenges faced by the auto industry, which recorded its eight consecutive months of sales decline. “The government may or may not be saying this but there are clear cut markings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, which shows a decrease in growth in the last three-to-four years. Like any government they would like to show a happy face, but reality is reality,” Bajaj said. World Bank expects India’s economy to grow 7.5 percent this fiscal, however India’s central bank is not so optimistic. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised India’s FY20 GDP forecast downwards from 7.2 percent in its April policy to seven percent. During the April-June quarter (Q1), the automobile industry saw a 12.3 percent drop to six million units. Passenger vehicle segment comprising cars, SUVs and vans reported the highest fall at 18.4 percent, followed by commercial vehicles, which fell 16.6 percent. “There is no demand and no private investment, so where will growth come from? It doesn’t fall from heavens. The auto industry is going through a very difficult period. Cars, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers are going through a rough patch,” Bajaj added. Several auto makers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Honda Cars India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Renault-Nissan, Skoda and Ashok Leyland undertook production holidays to cut back on output. Despite this, inventory levels at warehouses and with dealers remain high especially for two-wheelers and commercial vehicles. “Two-wheelers are lying with dealers for 65 days against the normal 25-30 days. This is the case with commercial vehicle dealers too who are holding stocks for 55-60 days. Discounting has made matter even worse for both segments,” said a Mumbai-based analyst. According to data shared by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), two-wheelers recorded a fall of nearly 12 percent in sales to 5.01 million units during Q1 as compared to 5.67 million units sold in the same period last year. Commercial vehicles recorded a fall of nearly 10 percent in sales during the same period to 2.08 lakh https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/technology/auto/angry-rahul-bajaj-criticises-centre-for-falling-demand-private-investment-4259711.html Edited July 31, 2019 by Stan AF
Stan AF Posted August 1, 2019 Posted August 1, 2019 The sharp decline in markets happened despite favourable factors like currency and crude Sensex, Nifty log worst July in 17 years amid worries of a further slowdown 2 min read . Updated: 31 Jul 2019, 11:22 PM IST Nasrin Sultana The BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices were down 7.87% and 10.87%, respectively, last month Analysts are worried about market weakness because of tightening credit supply, weakening business sentiments, weaker investment cycle, and slowing global growth Topics SensexStock Market Mumbai: Indian equities were under severe selling pressure in July because of worries over a slew of budget proposals and a further slowdown in the economy. The benchmark index Sensex was down 4.86% and the Nifty slipped 5.69% in July, the sharpest monthly decline since October last year. This is worst performance of stock markets in July in 17 years. In July 2002, the Sensex had fallen 7.92%. It was worse for smaller companies—BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices were down 7.87% and 10.87% respectively in July. Analysts are worried about market weakness because of tightening credit supply, weakening business sentiments, weaker investment cycle, and slowing global growth. Foreign institutional investors rattled by the Union budget proposal to increase the surcharge on super rich tax payers were net sellers in July to the tune of $1,623.13 million. However, domestic institutional investors, including mutual funds and insurance companies, were net buyers of Indian shares worth ₹17,915.14 crore. The sharp decline in markets was despite favourable factors like the currency and crude. In July, the rupee was up 0.34% and crude prices were down 2.15%. “There were no big bang reforms or any major stimulus in the Union budget. On the contrary, the increase in surcharge and the proposal to raise public shareholding from 25% to 35% have dampened investor sentiment and led to a sharp correction post budget," said Rusmik Oza, head of research, Kotak Securities Ltd. The major concern for the markets is the serious slowdown seen in various sectors that seemed cyclical at the start but are turning out to be structural in nature, according to Oza. Tough economic reforms are needed to reverse the current slowdown, he said. “Consumption-led growth and high government spending could be running out of steam and we are not seeing any revival in private investment. The slowdown in consumption largely reflects moderate growth in household income and higher taxes on households," he said. Elusive corporate earnings growth, which may indicate that the markets were running ahead of fundamentals in May, has added to the sluggish environment. Aggregate net profit growth of 281 BSE-listed companies excluding banks, financials, oil and gas companies that have reported June quarter results showed that profit growth has slowed to 8.49% from 23.8% a year earlier after adjusting for one-time gains or losses, according to a Mint analysis. Net sales growth slowed to an at least 13-quarter low of 5.07% from 20% in the same period last year and 10.27% in the preceding March quarter. Nifty earnings have grown at a CAGR of 3% in the last five years. There could be some meaningful cut in earnings, going by the June quarter results reported so far, analysts said. “The narrative of a slowing economy, poor earnings and a simmering NBFC crisis is front and centre. Yet, we think the Indian market is simply giving up the outperformance it earned in May, upon the publication of the exit polls. The Budget in early July, that was devoid of any major ‘stimulus’, seems to have catalysed the reversal . This is largely over," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Analysts feel the performance of the markets will depend on a lot of factors including the US Federal Reserve’s action and commentary on the global economy. https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/worst-july-for-stock-markets-in-17-years-fii-outflow-highest-since-nov-2018-1564580666633.html
Stan AF Posted August 1, 2019 Posted August 1, 2019 (edited) Core sector growth at 50-month low in June; 4 out of 8 sectors contract June growth rate falls to 0.2%, from 4.3 % in May, as refinery, steel and cement production weakens Subhayan Chakraborty | New Delhi Last Updated at July 31, 2019 23:37 IST Four of the eight industries making up the core sectors, which contribute almost 40 per cent to the country’s total industrial production, registered a contraction in the month Growth in the eight core sectors of the economy collapsed to 0.2 per cent in June — a staggering 50-month low — dragged down by major contraction in the energy segment and weak performance across industries. The data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Monday showed that coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement, and electricity industries saw the rate of growth take a sudden hit in June after a slight dip in May when it was 4.3 per cent. Four of the eight industries making up the core sectors, which contribute almost 40 per cent to the country’s total industrial production, registered a contraction in the month. This is symptomatic of stagnation setting in the domestic industry, said economists. June’s freefall growth rate is blamed largely on refinery production, which commands almost 30 per cent of the index, by weight. The sector saw a 9.3 per cent contraction in the latest month, much more than the 1.5 per cent fall in May. The closure of key refining units and sudden changes to the oil import value chain has led to repeated volatility in the sector in 2019. “The fall in petro products can be attributed both to internal issues as well as declining prices of crude oil, which makes imports cheaper under a stable exchange rate regime,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, said. Barring a two-month growth spree beginning March, sectoral output has contradicted every month in the current year. The same was true across the energy space. Crude oil production went down by 6.8 per cent in June, compared to 6.9 per cent in May, the highest margin of contraction in the past 12 months. In June, natural gas production also contracted by 2.1 per cent, after registering zero growth in May. However, coal output growth gained pace, rising by 3.2 per cent in June, up from May’s growth of 1.8 per cent. Production had hit a high of 9.1 per cent in March. The cement and steel sectors also saw their performance weaken in June. “The government spending has also been lower this quarter, which may explain why cement has turned negative this month —though there was the base effect here where growth was 14.2 per cent last year,” added Sabnavis. Steel output growth was slashed by more than half in June, with growth rate standing at 6.9 per cent, down from 15.3 per cent in May. Another sector indicating the health of construction and infrastructure development — cement — saw production contract by 1.5 per cent, after rising by 2.8 per cent in May. Growth had tapered off after hitting an 11-month high of 15.7 per cent in March. Electricity generation rose by 7.3 per cent in June, slightly lower than 7.4 per cent growth in May. Growth in the electricity sector had dipped to its lowest point in the last 71 months in January. A low growth in coal output had been blamed then. However, growth has steadily risen since then. “The marginal core sector growth, combined with the contraction in both auto production and non-oil merchandise exports, suggests that Index of Industrial Production growth would be muted at around 1 per cent in June 2019. Overall, there is limited visibility of a broad-based improvement in the Indian industrial outlook. The core sector data further strengthens the likelihood of a repo rate cut in the August 2019 policy review,” Aditi Nayar, principal economist, ICRA, said. Fertiliser production rose in June by 1.5 per cent, after going down by 1 per cent in May. The sector had grown four months out of the six in the current calendar year. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/core-sector-growth-at-50-month-low-in-june-4-out-of-8-sectors-contract-119073101553_1.html Edited August 1, 2019 by Stan AF
Stan AF Posted August 1, 2019 Posted August 1, 2019 (edited) At $2.73 trn, India's economy pushed to 7th spot; UK, France march ahead UK's economy grew to $2.82 trillion and the French economy expanded to $2.78 trillion in 2018, against India's $2.73 trillion, World bank data showed The UK and France have toppled India from the position of the fifth-largest economy in 2018, according to data compiled by the World Bank. Earlier data had shown that India had become the sixth largest economy in 2017, pushing France to the seventh place. However, the latest data showed that India had in fact become the fifth-largest economy that year, ahead of even the UK. In 2017, India’s economic size stood at $2.65 trillion, followed by the UK at $2.64 trillion and France at $2.59 trillion. However, this status was short lived as the UK’s economy grew to $2.82 trillion and the French economy expanded to $2.78 trillion in 2018, against India’s $2.73 trillion, showed the data. It means that India’s economy grew a mere 3.01 per cent in dollar terms in 2018 against 15.72 per cent in 2017. On the other hand, the UK’s economy grew 6.81 per cent against a contraction of 0.75 per cent in this period. The French economy expanded by 7.33 per cent against 4.85 per cent. Economists attributed this to a movement of the Indian rupee against the dollar. Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Ratings, said the rupee appreciated 3 per cent in 2017, while it depreciated 5 per cent the following year. “This has resulted in slower growth of India’s economy in dollar terms in 2018 against 2017,” he said. In rupee terms, India’s economy grew 11.2 per cent in 2018-19, a shade lower than 11.3 per cent in 2017-18. For India’s official statistics, financial years start on April 1 and end at March 31. The new data has come when there were talks of India overtaking Japan by 2025. IHS Markit said in a recent report that India will overtake the UK this year to become the world’s fifth-biggest economy, and is poised to surpass Japan to be the third largest in 2025. According to the World Bank data, Japan’s economic size was $4.97 trillion in 2018, higher than India’s by $2.24 trillion. India planned to increase its economic size to $5 trillion by 2024-25. For this, the Economic Survey estimated that India would have to grow by 12 per cent at current prices a year. Assuming the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation growth projections of 4 per cent, the Survey said the economy needed to grow 8 per cent at constant prices a year to make this target possible. At constant prices, India’s economy expanded by 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 and is projected to grow by 7 per cent in the current fiscal year. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/at-2-73-trn-india-s-economy-pushed-to-7th-spot-uk-france-march-ahead-119073101851_1.html Edited August 2, 2019 by Stan AF
velu Posted August 1, 2019 Posted August 1, 2019 On 7/25/2019 at 8:46 AM, Stan AF said: Facebook just got clobbered with a record $5 billion penalty over the Cambridge Analytica data breach Isobel Asher Hamilton,Isobel Asher HamiltonJul 24, 2019, 18:17 IST APFacebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.AP The Federal Trade Commission just slammed Facebook with a record $5 billion penalty over its handling of user data following the giant Cambridge Analytica breach last year. Facebook said last month that it had set aside $3 billion to $5 billion for the settlement. The Federal Trade Commission announced today that it has slapped Facebook with a $5 billion penalty over its handling of user data which came to light after the Cambridge Analytica scandal. The settlement is the result of Facebook violating a 2012 agreement with the FTC, in which it promised not to hand over user data to third parties without consent. It represents the biggest penalty the FTC has handed down to a technology company, with the regulator calling it "unprecedented." "The $5 billion penalty against Facebook is the largest ever imposed on any company for violating consumers' privacy and almost 20 times greater than the largest privacy or data security penalty ever imposed worldwide," the FTC said in a press statement. The penalty also includes a restructuring of Facebook's board of directors, mandating that it have an independent privacy committee. The FTC claims this committee will remove CEO Mark Zuckerberg's "unfettered control" over users' privacy, and will be responsible for appointing "compliance officers" to Facebook's privacy programme. Members of the new committee must be appointed by an "independent nominating committee," and can only be fired by a "supermajority" from Facebook's board of directors. Facebook said it was expecting the fine in its first-quarter earnings report last month, saying that it had set aside $3 billion to $5 billion in anticipation. The company is due to give its second-quarter earnings report later on Wednesday. Although the FTC fine has been long-anticipated, it has landed amid a flurry of regulatory activity. A source told the Wall Street Journal that the Securities and Exchange Commission is due to announce a settlement with Facebook to the tune of more than $100 million on Wednesday, and on Tuesday the Department of Justice announced a sweeping antitrust probe into the big tech giants. This story is developing... https://www.businessinsider.in/facebook-just-got-clobbered-with-a-record-5-billion-penalty-over-the-cambridge-analytica-data-breach/articleshow/70365249.cms FB kept aside 5 billion dollars last year itself NEW DELHI: At $5 billion, the fine the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is about to levy on Facebook is by far the largest it's given to a technology company, easily eclipsing the second largest, $22 million for Google in 2012. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/facebook-faces-5-billion-fine-largest-ever-for-a-tech-company-so-far/articleshow/70202442.cms Stan AF 1
Stan AF Posted August 2, 2019 Posted August 2, 2019 (edited) Slowdown Blues: Kiss of death for Indian auto industry as sales fall up to 40% in July Maruti Suzuki India Ltd posted a steep 36 percent decline in sales in July at 98,210 units, selling less than 1 lakh units in a month for the first time since June 2017 Sumant Banerji New Delhi Last Updated: August 1, 2019 | 21:18 IST The labyrinth that the domestic automobile industry has been stuck in for the last 12 months is fast becoming more and more tricky to manage. Passenger vehicle sales slid again in July--for the ninth consecutive month now and with increasing ferocity in recent months. Last month, sales crashed by nearly 30 per cent as consumers continued to stay away from dealerships. India's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India Ltd posted a steep 36 per cent decline in sales in July at 98,210 units as compared to 154,510 units in the same month last year. This was the first time since June 2017 when Maruti has sold less than 1 lakh units in a month. That time, dispatches to dealerships were predictably low on account of roll out of Goods and Services Tax in July 2017. The percentage decline itself is so huge that Maruti was hard pressed to answer when was the last time sales had declined by a bigger quantum in a month. Others performed no better, including companies like Hyundai Motor India and Mahindra and Mahindra that have multiple new launches in the last 12 months for cushion. Hyundai had brought back the Santro in a new avatar in October last year and followed it up with its maiden compact SUV Venue in May this year. Still, it registered a 10 per cent decline in sales last month. Similarly, Mahindra, which has launched the Marazzo MPV, Alturas premium SUV and XUV3OO compact SUV, also posted a 15 per cent dip in sales. "The headwinds faced by the automotive industry continue as a result of subdued consumer sentiment, triggered by various factors. The industry needs stimuli to help revive consumer demand and conversions," said Veejay Ram Nakra, Chief of Sales and Marketing, Automotive Division, M&M Ltd. "We hope that the overall buying sentiment will improve in the run-up to the festive season and with the monsoon turning out to be better than initially anticipated." Those without the luxury of new products fared worse. Honda Cars saw its sales slide by nearly 49 percent while counterpart Toyota also witnessed a 24 percent dip. "The degrowth in the automobile industry further intensified last month amidst weak buying sentiment and overall slowdown. We are also witnessing lot of postponement of purchases," said Rajesh Goel, Senior Vice President and Director, Sales and Marketing, Honda Cars India Ltd. "It is extremely worrisome since July 2019 decline is much severe than Q1 decline and that too when the industry had degrown in July last year as well." "The industry is deeply concerned with the increasing pressure of low customer sentiment faced by the sector. The high insurance costs, rise in taxes and liquidity crunch across the non-banking finance segment, tightening of lending norms have significantly affected the domestic sales in the last few months," added N. Raja, Deputy Managing Director, Toyota Kirloskar Motor. "We are trying to lend maximum support to our dealers through the hard times faced by the industry by maintaining lean inventory. We hope that the upcoming festive season brings in a breather for the industry with spur in customer sentiments. Also, we expect government will step in to take necessary steps for improving liquidity in the market by capital infusion in the banks should also be of some help. The industry also expects the GST level to be rationalized to a lower level (28 per cent to 18 per cent) to accommodate the downturn in sales." Like the sales, the morale within the industry is at record lows. https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/auto/slowdown-blues-kiss-of-death-for-indian-auto-industry-as-sales-fall-up-to-40-per-cent-in-july/story/369853.html Edited August 2, 2019 by Stan AF
someone Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 I heard that now any company over 20 employees need a sexual harassment council , and it needs an NGO member there? Is it correct? , then it's turned out to be method for corruption instead. As NGOs seemingly can ask all sorts of montly range ranging from 50K....
Stan AF Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 CrisilNSE -1.91 % has lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for this fiscal to 6.9%, 20 basis points lower than its earlier projection. This is marginally higher than the 6.8% GDP growth last fiscal, but lower than the 14-year average of 7%. Credit rating agency Crisil, in its report released on Thursday, listed out some of the reasons for the slowdown. Read more at: //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/70493541.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst ICRA, too, has flagged concerns Read more at: //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/70493541.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Stan AF Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 Indian equities wipe off 200 billion$ since BUDGET 2019 https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/indian-equities-wipe-off-200-billion-since-budget https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BTkai/4/
Stan AF Posted August 4, 2019 Posted August 4, 2019 Poor consumer confidence hits rural FMCG demand; sales growth drag FMCG product sales in the rural market in this quarter grew by a meagre 5.9% Arnab Dutta & Sanjeeb Mukherjee | New Delhi Last Updated at August 3, 2019 20:57 IST Those expecting a resurgence of consumer confidence once the upheaval of demonetisation and GST settled, have had their hopes squashed by rural India where demand for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) remains weak. The recent data from market analytics firm Nielsen shows that the rural market in the country’s 630,000-odd villages is pulling down the overall FMCG business. In the April-June quarter, traditionally a strong period after the slump of the winter months, growth in rural markets was the lowest since early 2018. FMCG product sales in the rural market in this quarter grew by a meagre 5.9 per cent. Coupled with a 4.4 per cent price hike, the total value growth in the villages where over 65 per cent of the population lives, grew 10.3 per cent, or 9.7 percentage points lower than July-September 2018. Three quarters ago, the rural market had grown by 20 per cent by value and a staggering 16.3 per cent by volume. As a result of the rural figures, overall growth in the Rs 3.5 trillion FMCG market has also slumped. While in the September 2018 quarter, the overall growth stood at 16.2 per cent, this has now come down to 10 per cent. Nielsen said that food and personal care were the categories most affected by the slowdown. While the value growth of food and personal care in the calendar year 2018 was 15 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, this is expected to fall to 13 per cent and 11 per cent in the current calendar year, said the agency. Rural sales growth, which was ahead of urban sales growth by at least 400 to 700 basis points for most companies in early to mid-2018, has now slowed to just 90 basis points over urban. Growth in urban markets has also slowed during the April-June quarter from 10.9 per cent growth by volume to 6.4 per cent but its impact remains much lower than that of the rural market. According to Nielsen, rural households contributed 57 per cent to this ongoing slowdown. This is significant, given the fact that the revenue contribution of the rural market to the overall market is 30 per cent — much lower than that of the urban market. The sales and profits of most FMCG and retail firms have been weak of late, showing signs of stress. Rural wages and wholesale crop prices, which can be an accurate barometer, haven’t really picked up by much between January and July this year from the slump seen a few years ago. Data from agmarket.nic.in show that the average wholesale price of key kharif and rabi crops such as channa, soybean and mustard have been below the Minimum Support Price. FMCG sales executives say that, in spite of the government’s recent measures to streamline crop prices and offer Rs 6,000 a year dole to farmers, poor consumer confidence has hit the market. “People are overly cautious while taking purchasing decisions. Most consumers are buying only when they need and not what they can afford at the moment,” said a sales manager with a major FMCG company. Wage growth too has been slack and experts say this is a continuation of the weak trend seen over the last few years. Data from India Ratings in a report published last year showed that average real rural wage growth (agriculture and non-agriculture) slumped from 11.18 per cent in FY13-FY15 to just 0.45 per cent in FY16-FY18. “Rural wages should not be seen in a one-year horizon because there can be aberrations in between,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist and director of India Ratings. Suresh Narayanan, CMD, Nestle India, said an impetus was needed. “India has consistently posted stable growth in the past few years with low inflation. However, with inflationary pressures now growing and the forecast of a below-normal monsoon, farm incomes will be affected. Giving an impetus to rural households is the need of the hour,” he said. According to Kishore Biyani, founder and CEO of the Future Group, ‘rural incomes have to rise so that the consumption slowdown in these markets is addressed’. He added: “A revival package for rural areas will help and with a stable government in power, I think, a lot can happen.” Anand Kripalu, managing director and CEO, Diageo India, is hoping for more reforms. “A stable government is welcome for the nation and economy. We hope in its second term the government will usher in the next phase of reforms. In sectors that contribute significantly to state GDP (such as beverages and alcohol), we look towards the federal government to encourage states to bring about comprehensive regulatory reform,” said Kripalu. Nielsen has lowered its growth forecast for the domestic consumer goods market for the 2019 calendar year by 200 basis points, citing weak sentiment. https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/poor-consumer-confidence-hits-rural-fmcg-demand-sales-growth-drag-119080300915_1.html
Stan AF Posted August 4, 2019 Posted August 4, 2019 Too many reforms by Modi govt slowed down GDP growth: NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant The NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant recommended that the government need to give a thrust to major structural reforms as was done earlier. He espoused an array of policy decisions to revive the economy. BusinessToday.In Last Updated: August 3, 2019 | 19:32 IST NITI Aayog Chief Executive Officer Amitabh Kant Friday said that a spate a wave of reforms undertaken by the Modi-led government has led to the current slowdown in the Indian economy. "One of the reasons for the slowdown is that it has had too much of reforms - GST [Goods and Services Tax], IBC [Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code], RERA [ Real Estate Regulatory Authority] - a huge set of reforms which we have undertaken and I think the next round of reforms must revolve around sectors like oil and gas, mining, coal," Kant said at Bloomberg NEF Summit in New Delhi. Also Read:India has game plan for electric vehicles: NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant The NITI Aayog CEO recommended that the government need to give a thrust to major structural reforms as was done earlier. He espoused an array of policy decisions to revive the economy. "Firstly, you need to bring in greater levels of liquidity. Secondly, you need to revive the animal spirit of the private sector, you can never create wealth without the private sector. Thirdly, the government needs to get out of business in a range of areas and you need to recycle a lot of government assets such as roads. We have done this with airports," he said. "Gas grids, gas pipelines, transmission lines should be privately-owned. NITI Aayog has recommended a vast range of public sector for privatisation. Once we have private sector coming in, bank credit will start flowing in and this is critical. Fourthly, we must push for major structural reforms as we did earlier," he added. "One of the reasons for the slowdown is that it has had too much of reforms - GST, IBC, RERA - a huge set of reforms which we have undertaken and I think the next round of reforms must revolve around sectors like oil and gas, mining, coal. We must commercialise coal mining, railways and they will really drive the growth in India," Kant said. https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/amitabh-kant-niti-aayog-too-many-reforms-slowed-down-gdp-growth-modi-government/story/370310.html
Stan AF Posted August 5, 2019 Posted August 5, 2019 Two lakh jobs cut in last 3 months across automobile dealerships: FADA PTI New Delhi, August 04, 2019 11:31 IST Updated: August 05, 2019 09:20 IST Photo for representation. | Photo Credit: S.R. Raghunathan Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) seeks reduction of GST to provide relief to auto industry Around two lakh jobs have been cut across automobile dealerships in India in the last three months as vehicle retailers take the last resort of cutting manpower to tide over the impact of the unprecedented sales slump, according to industry body FADA. With no immediate signs of recovery, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) feared that the job cuts may continue with more showrooms being shut in the near future and sought immediate government intervention such as reduction of GST to provide relief to the auto industry. “The majority of job cuts have happened in the last three months. It started around May and continued through June and July,” FADA President Ashish Harsharaj Kale told PTI. He further said, “Right now most of the cuts which have happened are in front-end sales jobs but if this (slowdown) continues, then even the technical jobs will be affected because if we are selling less then we will also service less, so it is a cycle.” When asked how many jobs have been cut across the dealerships in India, he said, “Close to about two lakh.” “It is a guesstimate that our members have already cut 7-8 per cent of the jobs in most of the dealerships as the degrowth has been very high,” he added. Around 2.5 million people were employed directly through around 26,000 automobile showrooms operated by 15,000 dealers. Another 2.5 million are indirectly employed in the dealership ecosystem, he added. The two lakh jobs cuts in the last three months are over and above the 32,000 people who lost employment when 286 showrooms were closed across 271 cities in the 18-month period ended April this year, he added. Stating that more dealerships have closed in the past three months, Mr. Kale said, “We are collating the figures again. In a few cases some (dealers) have gone for closure of outlets, not the main outlets but those which were put up anticipating some geographic reach.” Elaborating on reasons for taking the drastic step of cutting jobs, he said the ‘margin of error’ in the business in the past few years has really gone down with cost almost doubling in the last three to four years. “The margin that we earn overall as a business has not gone up. Therefore, if we go into a degrowth situation we get into cash loss. So to avoid that, dealers have been cutting down on costs other than manpower. Till March this year none of the dealers went for any manpower correction because we thought this was a temporary slowdown and it will soon recover,” he said. However, he said, “The way the first quarter has panned out despite good election results and the Budget, the degrowth continued. It is clear now that a proper slowdown has hit us. Now dealers have resorted to cutting manpower.” Terming manpower as ‘the most precious resource of dealers’, Mr. Kale said, “That is the last thing we try to cut down. When the slowdown started we first decided that we should go for stock reduction. Most of OEMs have supported us. While cutting other variable expenses that we can, we did not touch manpower till March and almost mid-April.” Ruing the loss of jobs, he said, “It is the last resort because it is difficult to get those manpower. We invest a lot on training them because it is a peculiar industry, whether it is a technical or a field job.” As per Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) figures, vehicle wholesale across all categories declined by 12.35 per cent to 60,85,406 units in April-June against 69,42,742 units in same period of last year. On the other hand, as per data based on registrations collated by FADA, automobile retail sales in the April-June period declined by 6 per cent to 51,16,718 units in the first quarter of this fiscal as against 54,42,317 units in the year-ago period. Passenger vehicles (PV) segment has been the worst hit with sales continuing to decline for almost a year now. In July, market leader Maruti Suzuki reported a 36.3 per cent drop in its domestic PV wholesales, while Hyundai saw a dip of 10 per cent. M&M sales were down 16 per cent, Tata Motors’ PV sales fell 31 per cent while that of Honda Cars India Ltd (HCIL) also came down 48.67 per cent during the month. Seeking immediate government intervention, Kale said, “We are hoping, from whatever we are hear that the government has taken note of the serious situation that is going on in the overall economy, specifically with the auto sector. We are hoping for some support for the auto sector in the next few days or week or two.” He said the auto industry has already put out a request for GST cut. “It is not a permanent demand. We know GST is such a huge developmental agenda for the government, but at the same time (it is needed for) reviving the auto industry. We (auto industry) are almost 8 per cent of the GDP and 49 per cent of manufacturing GDP,” Mr. Kale said. He said while the revival of monsoon holds out hope, resolution of liquidity crisis, specially with the NBFCs, will go along way in helping the auto industry recover from one of the worst sales slumps in its history. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/two-lakh-jobs-cut-in-last-3-months-across-automobile-dealerships-fada/article28812963.ece
Recommended Posts