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Janata Parivar II

Texan

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Nitish mulls over alliance with Cong

New Delhi, May 22: Nitish Kumar's efforts for a Janata family merger was thwarted today by Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav with the unity proposal replaced with an "unacceptable" anti-BJP "morcha" (front) to include Jitan Ram Manjhi. The move by Lalu at a meeting of Janata leaders at Mulayam's residence led an angry Nitish to explore separate electoral alliance talks with the Congress, a source said. Nitish kept away from the meeting under excuse of a minor eye surgery and Sharad Yadav, who represented the JDU, left ahead of others. Sharad drove straight from Mulayam's residence to Bihar Nivas and remained closeted with Nitish and other JDU leaders to chalk out the next course of strategy. A JDU insider said Sharad left the meeting after Lalu proposed that in the larger anti-BJP " morcha" talks should be held with Manjhi to include the Mahadalit leader in the alliance. The JDU is ready for a larger anti-BJP front but the inclusion of Manjhi in it is unacceptable to the party. The JDU leaders saw deliberate mischief on part of Lalu to propose the inclusion of Manjhi in the front, knowing well that it was not acceptable to Nitish. "This is nothing but pure mischief by Lalu. It seems he is not even interested in an alliance with the JDU," said a JDU leader who feared the Lalu-Nitish unity could be headed for a bitter spat. Nitish, already upset with Lalu's tantrums, was filled with anger when Sharad briefed him about the proposal to include Manjhi in the front at the meeting, sources said. After this development, Nitish held a meeting with Sharad and other JDU leaders, including Lallan Singh, RCP Singh and K.C. Tyagi, and the decision to hold talks for a separate electoral alliance with the Congress was taken. Nitish is learnt to have held a preliminary round of talks with some key Congress leaders and now wants to take it forward with priority. The RJD camp saw the effort by Nitish to hold talks with the Congress as a "bargaining tactic" to put pressure on Lalu. The RJD boss has already refused to commit Nitish would be the chief ministerial face of the alliance in the Bihar elections. He yesterday said the chief ministerial issue would be decided after the polls. During the brief meeting at Mulayam's residence today, Lalu said the merger should be put off for the time being and proposed an anti-BJP front to include all the secular parties like the Congress, Left and the NCP. The proposal was seconded by Mulayam's brother, SP general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav. He said the merger cannot be done right now because of technical issues and so the better option would be to have a wider alliance and contest the Bihar polls on individual party symbols. Lalu then proposed talks with former chief minister Manjhi to have the leader in the alliance, pointing out that he would bring support of a good section of Mahadalits. This again was seconded by Ram Gopal, a source said. Mulayam was present at the meeting but remained silent for most of the time. JDU sources claimed that the twin proposals, not to project Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate and rope in Manjhi, were "unacceptable" to them and Nitish saw this as a signal from Lalu of not being needed. Nitish now wants to outwit Lalu by his move to have a separate alliance with the Congress, the sources said.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1150523/jsp/frontpage/story_21665.jsp#.VWAjwzY4nTY
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Texan Mentor

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Is Nitish Kumar working on a new Bihar poll strategy that excludes Laloo and Mulayam? http://scroll.in/article/729395/is-nitish-kumar-working-on-a-new-bihar-poll-strategy-that-excludes-laloo-and-mulayam I guess Nitish's thinking is that muslims will dump RJD for his Congress-CPM-Jd(u) alliance to keep the BJP out. At the same time upper castes wont mind voting for this combo hurting the BJP. I doubt this combo will win the elections. But it makes sense long term to be honest. Its a stable alliance in which one party is the leader and the other parties are junior. Still think its a means of getting more seats from the RJD. I think both Nitish and Lalu know any combo in which these two are not tied up will lose to the BJP alliance. This move does suit the congress as well. In the Jd(u) RJD coalition they would eventually have been pushed out and marginalised. This is a long term coalition in which they can build a base to regain themselves in Bihar. However it does not bode well for their "stop BJP at all costs" strategy which needs immediate sacrifices. This just might be the first key decision Pappu has to make. Does he marginalise a potential future vs stopping an adversary now (which is not guaranteed as well) I feel this combo should get about 30% of the popular vote.
This will be music to BJP's ears. If I were the Congress, I would prefer this deal. 60 seats with Nitish is better than 20-30 with both Laloo and Nitish. Laloo wants his half of the cake and is eyeing half of Nitish's cake too. Of course, the "Stop BJP at all costs" takes a beating, but with 20 seats to contest, Congress is staring at complete political insignificance in Bihar. With 60 seats, they stay relevant.
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G_B_ Community Regular

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btw there seems to be a new twist in the saga that is the janata pariwar The six regional parties will retain their identities and contest local elections and state assemblies under their own banners. While they will contest lok sabha under a Janata title.

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someone Community Regular

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Imo, I still wouldn't read too much in the recent news. I feel it's all mind games. The BJP-JDU link is perhaps more a pressuring tactic planted from JDU. Obviously, all Janata Parivar parties will have back-up plans as nobody there can truly trust the other party members. But they are all bound of greed and power, and that's enough for all of them to compromise for the short term. On Nitish, his career has certainly taken a big turn. Once he was seen as a PM candidate and now, he is fighting to be relevant in Bihar.

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G_B_ Community Regular

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Seems the congress have declared that they will ally with Nitish come what may , be it part of Commi Congress Jd(u) or RJd-Jd(u)-Congress-Communists alliance. This does give Nitish the leverage he needs for better seat sharing with lalu and ofcourse being projected as a CM candidate. Lalu's options for leverage remain with Manjhi....If Manjhi decided to fight with Pappu Yadav Lalu will have to fight alone or go with Nitish and take what he offers him.

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Texan Mentor

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Janata Parivar has opened it twitter account. @Janata Parivar soon we are organising Sattu par Charcha. join the campaign , mail at jp4bihar@gmail.com Lol!!! communication strategy bhi BJP se copy kar rahe hain.
Could end up being the shortest lived political party Twitter handle in history.
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G_B_ Community Regular

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no surprises there In the ABP news survey RJD was consistently getting more seats despite having the lesser vote share due to a concentrated vote. Jd(u) votes are more spread through the state. Laloo cannot be CM. Has not stopped him from putting his wife forward.
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Nitish was mad at BJP that why he couldnt be NDA'z PM Canditate. BJP said you are not suitable. It will be Modi. Lalloo says Nitish cannt even be Bihar's CM until results. So RJD will only offer CM post if Nitish wins significant seats in the Assembly. Now go figure out why the term is called brain fart... :hysterical:
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I feel nitish has two options (A) Be part of government and be second fiddle of one of the Lalloo children who will be CM (Tej ) as mostly likely RJD with their superior vote base and organisation will probably end up with most seats within a JD(u)-RJD-Congress-Commie coalition assuming the RJD and Jd(u) fight the same number of seats. (B) Be part of a Congress-Jd(u)-Communist coalition which in all honesty will fail to win the election but establish him as the undisputed leader of opposition in Bihar. He is still number in his early 60s and can mount a comeback and live to fight another day. The Jd(u) have been in power for close to a decade. Before that they have been in power at the centre during the ABV era. So technically they have been in power somewhere. They can afford to sit out 5 years and rebuild. He might even ally with Pappu next elections depending on how things go. IMO option B makes most sense at this point. Lalu will make use of Nitish's good governance metric to win seats for his party and once he has more seats make one of his incompetent dumb as feck children CM. Seriously has anybody followed Misa Bharati on twitter? I felt like shooting myself in the head. As much as i hate to admit Lalu is a canny operator and you have to admire his political savy. His children are DUMB. Playing second fiddle to them for Nitish would be the ultimate humiliation. Its like winning a battle and losing a war.

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Malcolm Merlyn

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I feel nitish has two options (A) Be part of government and be second fiddle of one of the Lalloo children who will be CM (Tej ) as mostly likely RJD with their superior vote base and organisation will probably end up with most seats within a JD(u)-RJD-Congress-Commie coalition assuming the RJD and Jd(u) fight the same number of seats. (B) Be part of a Congress-Jd(u)-Communist coalition which in all honesty will fail to win the election but establish him as the undisputed leader of opposition in Bihar. He is still number in his early 60s and can mount a comeback and live to fight another day. The Jd(u) have been in power for close to a decade. Before that they have been in power at the centre during the ABV era. So technically they have been in power somewhere. They can afford to sit out 5 years and rebuild. He might even ally with Pappu next elections depending on how things go. IMO option B makes most sense at this point. Lalu will make use of Nitish's good governance metric to win seats for his party and once he has more seats make one of his incompetent dumb as feck children CM. Seriously has anybody followed Misa Bharati on twitter? I felt like shooting myself in the head. As much as i hate to admit Lalu is a canny operator and you have to admire his political savy. His children are DUMB. Playing second fiddle to them for Nitish would be the ultimate humiliation. Its like winning a battle and losing a war.
The man who quit NDA because BJP refused to endorse him with his 20odd MPs as PM will play second fiddle to Lalu in Bihar?If he does that it will mean political suicide.
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I dont believe this "nitish wants to be Pm " theory. Sure that was one dimension. What Nitish wanted to do is pull a Naveen Patnaik. every regional leader wants to pull a naveen patnaik no matter how much they deny it. Naveen Patnaik used the BJP to establish himself in Orissa. BJP at the time were consistently polling 10-15% of the votes. He then dump the BJP when he became strong enough to emerge on his own and the Congress too weakened in the state due to lack of leadership. Thus BJD become the outright kings of Orissa. Ready to ally with anybody at the centre depending on who was second in Orissa. Yet ruling their own state on their own. Nitish for whatever reason thought that he was ready to set sail alone (or with really minor allies) and he would repeat what the BJD did in Bihar. He then would put his name forward when he got 20 plus lok sabha seats (in his mind) to be a PM candidate everybody would accept. The difference between what the BJD did and Jd(u) did was the difference between Advani and Modi. If Modi would have been the BJP candidate in 2009 there is a good chance Naveen Patnaik would have deemed breaking with the BJP too risky to execute. Its happened to the BJP before. BSP used the BJP to build their base and then set solo when they deemed the BJP to be a drag on them and themselves strong enough to make it on their own. Mayawati weaned away BJP's upper caste base to her cause. The result was the BJP was a much diminished party in the state. Nitish might be good at governance but he is poor politician and misread which way the winds are blowing. BJP should keep extra watch on the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu has dumped the BJP once. He is systematically bleeding the main opposition party in the state YSR congress via defections. There will come a point whereby he wont need to the BJP at all. In 2014 while TDP won the state outright in terms of seats. BJP was the splitting difference between YSR and TDP in terms of vote %. Naidu's game plan is simple. Bleed to opposition in Andhra Pradesh. Dump the BJP. Then ally with either the congress or the bjp at the centre post lok sabha and extract a pound of flesh. Its not just the BJP mind you. Trinamool used the Congress to establish themselves in WB. Then dumped them once Mamata felt confident to go alone.

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