Sachin=GOD Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 See more at: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/rjd-jdu-congress-to-fight-bihar-elections-together-sharad-yadav/#sthash.XDraLl3L.dpuf Unless they plan to give home and finance to RJD, they are not really leaving much on the table for the RJD. If RJD do get 100 seats ad they emerge with more seats post elections. Your telling me they wont at the very least have deputy CM? Jd(u) IMO has a fair demand for CM. But not giving RJD even deputy CM seems they are asking a bit too much. Agreed. Asking for CM and giving Deputy CM in return would be pretty fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 well something is got to give.... I think the seat sharing is probably right. The left parties might pull out (i doubt they will) but cant see any major issues with this. I think even Laloo will ok this seat sharing... its the Nitish as CM which is the sticking point. Nitish as CM hinges on if his party actually gets more seats than the RJD. I cant see Laloo honouring any deals if the RJD do manage to get more seats then the Jd(u) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Aagya beech muft ki mewa khaane..Nelson Mandela :hehe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Mulayam says Nitish will be CM candidate of anti-BJP alliance in Bihar, Lalu agrees http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mulayam-says-nitish-kumar--will-lead-anti-bjp-alliance-in-bihar-lalu-agrees/article1-1356290.aspx and so it is agreed. Time to admit the alliance v the BJP which is RJD-Jd(u)-Congress-CPIM-NCP is going to take shape... 100 Jd(u) 100 RJD and 43 others.... Who gets the superior seats now remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Mulayam says Nitish will be CM candidate of anti-BJP alliance in Bihar' date= Lalu agrees http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mulayam-says-nitish-kumar--will-lead-anti-bjp-alliance-in-bihar-lalu-agrees/article1-1356290.aspx and so it is agreed. Time to admit the alliance v the BJP which is RJD-Jd(u)-Congress-CPIM-NCP is going to take shape... 100 Jd(u) 100 RJD and 43 others.... Who gets the superior seats now remains to be seen. What do you think?BJP has a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 What do you think?BJP has a chance? from what i am reading there are 90 seats in which the rjd and the jd(u) are in direct competition. Have been so for more than a decade. I guess the fate of the election will probably depend on if they manage to sort out differences amicably or disgruntled independents join the BJP or contest independently. Those 90 will decide who wins. But atm its the Janata Pariwar has a slight edge from what i can see. Things can rapidly change though. In November BJP were miles ahead in Delhi by Jan that all changed. The BJP has a good chance..they have a more stable alliance and better cadre organisation on the ground. Their downside is no CM candidate and obviously the caste base on paper favours the Janata paiwar. In the lok sabha elections the Anti BJP alliance got 45% of the vote while the BJP alliance got 38% of the vote. Since then factors pro BJP (a) Manjhi and Pappu have left. If we take the expected value of the what The outsider has said thats about 8% (1.5+6.5). So it becomes 45-8 or about 37%. Thats one simplistic way of looking at things. (b) I doubt if Laloo will be able to carry the Yadav votes as he used to. As Outy (The Outsider) has mentioned the Yadav votes Lalu had in the lok sabha will translate to votes for Nitish. Nitish was projected (ironically by Laloo) as the anti Yadav for close to a decade now. People cant just simply switch off that. Anti-BJP (a) Modi wave on the wane. As any wave would be. I am not so sure the 38% of the BJP alliance is set in stone.... in all elections the BJP have fought at state level since 2014 there has been a dip in the BJP vote share. (b) There is a shift in people's votes for national and local elections. I am sure many thought Modi was better at the centre but feel Nitish is better at the state. Sort of ties into point (a) The gameplan for BJP IMO is simple. (A) Attack the Yadav votes. (B) Encourage disgruntled rebels to join you or contest as independents. Which means declaring seats where you are strong much earlier and letting those candidates get on this means the sitting 90 odd MLA's etc must be told they have the ticket and to start their campaign. Maybe delay your nominations for the 90 seats where RJD and Jd(u) are bound to clash on. © Manage seat sharing well with current NDA allies. Both existing allies have demanded 50 each. That needs to be whittled down IMO to a much smaller number. Shah needs to make that happen. If that means giving them an extra union minister of state berth then so be it. (D) Have a soft alliance with HAM or to include them. Make a call quickly and have the same arrangement at point ©. BJP can offer their allies something the other alliance cannot. Roles at the centre. Maybe they can get better dispensation in municipal elections. For all we know the RJD finishes with more seats than the Jd(u) and Nitish Kumar cuts a deal with the BJP to form government if the RJD dont back his demands to be CM. Considering they have not merged even post elections things could change its that volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seedhi Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Lalu Yadav is the curse of Bihar - his 15 year rule took Bihar 50 years back. Dammit, in the 90s when India was growing at 6-7%, Bihar growth rate was around 2% or less. And Lalu was proud that he did not do any development - he deliberately destroyed the Bihar economy. Less said about law and order the better. Situation was so bad during his rule that doctors used to refuse to step out to see patients for the fear of kidnapping and even IAS officers once went on a strike because of bad law and order. I can't believe Nitish Kumar has joined hands with Lalu. This must be the height of opportunism. Jungle raaj stares Bihar, the goons are salivating to pluck whatever Bihar has gained over the last decade of JD(U)-BJP rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diga Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 ^ Also check if Lalu really turned around Indian railways as he always claims... probably just got saved by Mamata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Mulayam says Nitish will be CM candidate of anti-BJP alliance in Bihar' date= Lalu agrees http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mulayam-says-nitish-kumar--will-lead-anti-bjp-alliance-in-bihar-lalu-agrees/article1-1356290.aspx and so it is agreed. Time to admit the alliance v the BJP which is RJD-Jd(u)-Congress-CPIM-NCP is going to take shape... 100 Jd(u) 100 RJD and 43 others.... Who gets the superior seats now remains to be seen. As I mentioned few days back everything will be sorted. They're just trying to keep BJP complacent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 "Bihaar must be saved from the comunaal forces" If that is what people of Bihar want then we gotta respect it. Same goes for UP. But if they voted against, Cong-Lallu-Nitish in the LS then who knows they might as well vote in favor of BJP again. Constituencies with high Muslim population are totally decided. But with so much defection in RJD-JDU, anything can happen. Waiting for poll surveys to give us some initial numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 JDU-RJD-Cong-WhoeverElseHatesBJP alliance looks pretty formidable now and I dare say should be favorites now to win the elections. Bihar elections still very much run on caste and religion lines and a two-horse race does not sound like a good prospect for BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seedhi Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I am sure RJD has been promised extra seats for agreeing to Nitish as the CM candidate. Will RJD contesting on 100+ seats in alliance be palatable to those who voted for the JD(U) in hope of freedom from jungle raaj? BJP should simply focus informing the public about the looming nightmare that Lalu Yadav is for Bihar. The hope for BJP is that the support base of both these parties coincide in the rural and backward districts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Yeh toh hona hi tha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 ^ Also check if Lalu really turned around Indian railways as he always claims... probably just got saved by Mamata It was mostly Nitish as Rail min during NDA Govt who did a lot of good work. Lalu just got benefit of that. The only thing Lalu did in railway was that he didn't interfere in anything the officials/experts wanted bcoz he himself didn't know anything - he was happy with the money he was making off the ministry so he didn't interfere much in what the officials were doing. That was good for Indian railways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 JDU-RJD-Cong-WhoeverElseHatesBJP alliance looks pretty formidable now and I dare say should be favorites now to win the elections. Bihar elections still very much run on caste and religion lines and a two-horse race does not sound like a good prospect for BJP. they are the favs as of now. Not by much in terms of vote share (i dont know how the seats will play out) but they are ahead. Today Pappu yadav is saying he is willing to work with the BJP. As has Manjhi. BJP with Pappu and Manjhi will trump this alliance. But there are big seat sharing issues there and BJP wont have the numbers of their own to govern.... The BJP still do have options in their hands to change the outcome. But it will be a lot lot harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I am sure RJD has been promised extra seats for agreeing to Nitish as the CM candidate. Will RJD contesting on 100+ seats in alliance be palatable to those who voted for the JD(U) in hope of freedom from jungle raaj? BJP should simply focus informing the public about the looming nightmare that Lalu Yadav is for Bihar. The hope for BJP is that the support base of both these parties coincide in the rural and backward districts. thats the thing though. RJD as of now if saying Nitish Kumar CM. If they end up with more seats then the Jd(u) then I am not 100% sure that they will back Nitish as CM post election. It could be they back a consensus candidate Sharad Yadav or even pitch one of lalu's dumb children or even pitch for a neutral congress candidate to be CM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 So is it possible that Bihar again has non-JDU, non-BJP government? Obviously if Laloo, Pappu Yadav, Manjhi, Cong and Paswaan all get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Sad days for congress,once a mighty party now living off the remains!! They have truly compromised their stature and have accepted their fate,it appears as if no one is hungry to revive the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 So is it possible that Bihar again has non-JDU, non-BJP government? Obviously if Laloo, Pappu Yadav, Manjhi, Cong and Paswaan all get together. I somehow doubt a combo of those will be more than 123....Lalu himself is probably going to fight around 100 seats. Secondly Paswan and Khushwaha have been given their dues in the central government. They would need to be given something extra ordinary to rebel against that. This is exactly why the BJP have some aces up their sleeve. They are reliant on nobody to retain power at the centre. Modi does not have a bloated cabinet as of now. a round of expansion and Pappu to Manjhi can be accommodated. Both Jd(u) and RJD are not going to contest less than 100 seats. So anybody else is left with 43 with no other compensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I somehow doubt a combo of those will be more than 123....Lalu himself is probably going to fight around 100 seats. Secondly Paswan and Khushwaha have been given their dues in the central government. They would need to be given something extra ordinary to rebel against that. This is exactly why the BJP have some aces up their sleeve. They are reliant on nobody to retain power at the centre. Modi does not have a bloated cabinet as of now. a round of expansion and Pappu to Manjhi can be accommodated. Both Jd(u) and RJD are not going to contest less than 100 seats. So anybody else is left with 43 with no other compensation. Yea. I agree. Unless, Laloo wins whopping 70-80 seats himself its not possible. Ok So basically the big 3 players have to come together in some combination to form the govt. Of course unless BJP wins 100+ itself and combines with Paswan and Khushwaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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