Singh bling Posted November 19, 2015 Posted November 19, 2015 I think this guy deserve a thread.What I was thinking that what is his real aim , he broke alliance with NDA in 2013 though he very well knew that he can be CM with BJP support and it was impossible for others to defeat him ,he could have 5-7 ministers at centre too but he tried to play a game so what is his real motive ? post of PM but lets be real even we accept BJP is defeated badly in 2019 , what chance a guy with possible max 25 seats hold?
G_B_ Posted November 19, 2015 Posted November 19, 2015 (edited) lets wait to see how the ministries are shared.... we will know who wears the pants in the relationship between lalu and nitsh 5-7 ministers at centre is too much. Allies like Sena and SAD got 1 each. Max he would got is 2-3. But increase of having 2 LS seats he would probably have 20. More than PM, IMO Nitish wanted to pull a Naveen Patnaik and govern on his own. Patnaik used BJP to firmly establish himself in Odisha before splitting. He thought it would happen but failed in 2014 LS on that account. To his credit he managed to made the wise call of uniting with lalu. But I think the RJD > Jd(u) put a spanner in lot of his works. The next battle for Nitish is internally v lalu Edited November 19, 2015 by G_B_
Singh bling Posted November 19, 2015 Author Posted November 19, 2015 lets wait to see how the ministries are shared.... we will know who wears the pants in the relationship between lalu and nitsh 5-7 ministers at centre is too much. Allies like Sena and SAD got 1 each. Max he would got is 2-3SAD is small ally and Sena was on decline , BJP just sensed an oppurtunity to win big in Maharashtra , Dealing with Nitish was different , if it was BJP that was not willing to share power With NK then its their fault .Several panelists on TV suggested that BJP should also share power with even defeated parties O/W in coming years they will face a very powerful combined opposition , I think they did not heard it
G_B_ Posted November 19, 2015 Posted November 19, 2015 (edited) SAD is small ally and Sena was on decline , BJP just sensed an oppurtunity to win big in Maharashtra , Dealing with Nitish was different , if it was BJP that was not willing to share power With NK then its their fault .Several panelists on TV suggested that BJP should also share power with even defeated parties O/W in coming years they will face a very powerful combined opposition , I think they did not heard it Dude even from 1999-2004 Jd(u) got only 2 ministries. 5-7 ministries would be a ridiculous amount. The Sena got 18 seats.in 2014 Jd(u) in seat sharing agreements with BJP split Bihar 20-20 in 2004 and 2009. So max Jd(u) would have got is 20. Considering Sena got 1 cabinet berth and max will get 2 minister of state Jd(u) would have not got more than that.Especially after BJP crossed 272 on their own, the bargaining power of all allies was diminished be it Sena or Jd(u) (if they would be part of alliance). Even in maharashtra BJP could win cause NCP and Congress split. Had they stuck together the BJP would have to stitch a deal with Sena.I also dont understand your point. Nitish dumped the BJP. BJP then formed an alliance for 2014 which won. He could have very well gone back to the BJP. So the ball was always in the court of Nitish kumar. The BJP cannot beg him to come back. Not after forming so many state governments in 2014. They would have looked weak. But if Nitish would have come to Modi and Shah and said look i made a mistake they would have worked something out in terms of seat sharing. But you cant expect NaMo and Shah to goto Nitish and ask him for an alliance. Edited November 19, 2015 by G_B_
Singh bling Posted November 19, 2015 Author Posted November 19, 2015 Dude even from 1999-2004 Jd(u) got only 2 ministries. 5-7 ministries would be a ridiculous amount. The Sena got 18 seats.in 2014 Jd(u) in seat sharing agreements with BJP split Bihar 20-20 in 2004 and 2009. So max Jd(u) would have got is 20. Considering Sena got 1 cabinet berth and max will get 2 minister of state Jd(u) would have not got more than that.Especially after BJP crossed 272 on their own, the bargaining power of all allies was diminished be it Sena or Jd(u) (if they would be part of alliance). Even in maharashtra BJP could win cause NCP and Congress split. Had they stuck together the BJP would have to stitch a deal with Sena.I also dont understand your point. Nitish dumped the BJP. BJP then formed an alliance for 2014 which won. He could have very well gone back to the BJP. So the ball was always in the court of Nitish kumar. The BJP cannot beg him to come back. Not after forming so many state governments in 2014. They would have looked weak. But if Nitish would have come to Modi and Shah and said look i made a mistake they would have worked something out in terms of seat sharing. But you cant expect NaMo and Shah to goto Nitish and ask him for an alliance.1 cabinet berth for sena was ridiculous and we are seeing result of that , they hardly look allies as Sena keep's on attacking BJP Anyway I am more interested in what Nitish want , he is much weaker as CM what he was with BJP , down from 115 to 72 , but emerging as big leader of opposition , but is it realistic to be a PM t if he wins 25 seats in 2019 . O/W what is going to be his gain in all this game? if secular front comes then he will get same or less ministerial seats which he could have got with BJP ,
The Outsider Posted November 19, 2015 Posted November 19, 2015 To view Nitish purely through seats and ministries, is to show no understanding of the man and his strong principles. His problem is the lack of any vote bank like RJD has Yadavs and to some extent Muslims and BJP has the upper caste. On a purely development plank, he could win only 16% of the vote in 2004 because he doesn't have a vote bank like RJD and BJP. Once he allies with either of them, their vote banks ensure his victory, pushing the combined vote share closer to 40%. If he had fought independently, at best he would have got 20% vote and never been able to form a government. Aligning with Modi is deeply against his principles, so he chose the lesser of the two evils in Lalu.
bulbul Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 One of the most opportunistic & egoistic politician in Indian History. But at least helped to bring Bihar out of Jungle Raj for some extent,hope it doesn't go back to old state.
bulbul Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) To view Nitish purely through seats and ministries, is to show no understanding of the man and his strong principles. His problem is the lack of any vote bank like RJD has Yadavs and to some extent Muslims and BJP has the upper caste. On a purely development plank, he could win only 16% of the vote in 2004 because he doesn't have a vote bank like RJD and BJP. Once he allies with either of them, their vote banks ensure his victory, pushing the combined vote share closer to 40%. If he had fought independently, at best he would have got 20% vote and never been able to form a government. Aligning with Modi is deeply against his principles, so he chose the lesser of the two evils in Lalu. Edited November 20, 2015 by bulbul
rkt.india Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 To view Nitish purely through seats and ministries, is to show no understanding of the man and his strong principles. His problem is the lack of any vote bank like RJD has Yadavs and to some extent Muslims and BJP has the upper caste. On a purely development plank, he could win only 16% of the vote in 2004 because he doesn't have a vote bank like RJD and BJP. Once he allies with either of them, their vote banks ensure his victory, pushing the combined vote share closer to 40%. If he had fought independently, at best he would have got 20% vote and never been able to form a government. Aligning with Modi is deeply against his principles, so he chose the lesser of the two evils in Lalu.Same Nitish who used to praise Modi to no end.
rkt.india Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) People need to understand his mail goal that is the to be PM. How many seats GD Devegauda and IK Gujral had when they became PM. Nitish is certainly a bigger leader, atm. Same Nitish who asked Modi to come to national politics once now suddenly is allergic to Modi. It only tells you that he after is a politician and he has his ambitions too. He knows he cannot become PM if he support Modi, the only way is to go against him. Now, he has become the leader of anti-Modi brigade and proving it how much he is anti-Modi every day. Edited November 20, 2015 by rkt.india
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) To view Nitish purely through seats and ministries, is to show no understanding of the man and his strong principles. His problem is the lack of any vote bank like RJD has Yadavs and to some extent Muslims and BJP has the upper caste. On a purely development plank, he could win only 16% of the vote in 2004 because he doesn't have a vote bank like RJD and BJP. Once he allies with either of them, their vote banks ensure his victory, pushing the combined vote share closer to 40%. If he had fought independently, at best he would have got 20% vote and never been able to form a government. Aligning with Modi is deeply against his principles, so he chose the lesser of the two evils in Lalu.Sorry but this is a joke of a post .the guy was with BJP for 17 years even in 2002 , then what happened in 2013?In 2004 he was talking just like another politician but then he had shown people of Bihar development. In 2009, 2010 he badly mauled Lalu because of development .Both RJD and JDU are no.1 and No.2 parties in Bihar , for how long this alliance is feasible? can you expect in any state No. 1-2 parties ally .In other word to keep their alliance going they need stronger BJP in BiharNitish Kumar to flag off Advani's 'rath yatra' - NDTV.com from 2011And Sorry I don't buy this principle theory , how come flagging Advani Rath yatra in 2011 was in his principles? Nitish calls Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, invites him to his oath ceremony Edited November 20, 2015 by Singh bling
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) People need to understand his mail goal that is the to be PM. How many seats GD Devegauda and IK Gujral had when they became PM. Nitish is certainly a bigger leader, atm. Same Nitish who asked Modi to come to national politics once now suddenly is allergic to Modi. It only tells you that he after is a politician and he has his ambitions too. He knows he cannot become PM if he support Modi, the only way is to go against him. Now, he has become the leader of anti-Modi brigade and proving it how much he is anti-Modi every day.His bigger leader is also going to be his main problem. In Indian politics you can be PM if you are mass leader or small leader or nothing, Mulayam , Mayawati , AMMA , may be mamata may have more seats than NK and stubborn nature of politics of few leaders they may not agree a person with lesser number of seats to be PM .and not to forget that Kejri supporters already has his posters in social media as 2019 PM Edited November 20, 2015 by Singh bling
rkt.india Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 His bigger leader is also going to be his main problem. In Indian politics you can be PM if you are mass leader or small leader or nothing, Mulayam , Mayawati , AMMA , may be mamata may have more seats than NK and stubborn nature of politics of few leaders they may not agree a person with lesser number of seats to be PM they all agreed when Devegauda and IK Gujral became PM.
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 they all agreed when Devegauda and IK Gujral became PM.Only Mulayam , Amma and Mayawati were not part of that alliance and Mamata was nothing. And as I mentioned small and midget leaders have easy rather than strong leaders like Nitish Kumar, many other regional leaders are afraid that if his popularity grew he may eat their vote bank, they all may prefer small regional leader with least popularity to be PM who can pose no threat to them
rkt.india Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Only Mulayam , Amma and Mayawati were not part of that alliance and Mamata was nothing. And as I mentioned small and midget leaders have easy rather than strong leaders like Nitish Kumar, many other regional leaders are afraid that if his popularity grew he may eat their vote bank, they all may prefer small regional leader with least popularity to be PM who can pose no threat to themJDU has no base in UP and WB, so, there is no question of him eating their vote bank.
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 JDU has no base in UP and WB, so, there is no question of him eating their vote bank. A national leader can always eat votebank irrespective of region, you just need that stature
rkt.india Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 A national leader can always eat votebank irrespective of region, you just need that statureNitish isnt a national leader, but he is a leader of anti-Modi brigade which might push him to that PM post if they create that 3rd front again.
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 Nitish isnt a national leader, but he is a leader of anti-Modi brigade which might push him to that PM post if they create that 3rd front again.This is his present status , If he become PM and do a good job His popularity will rise 3-4 times. Even at present I have seen Non Bihari Liking him very much ,Nobody thought in 2004 that Modi wave will bring 285 seats for BJP in future , but it did happen
coffee_rules Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Same guy who used to win elections criticizing Lallu Yadav's goonda raj, is going around taking photo-ops hugging the same guy he fought against, funny principles he has.
bulbul Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Same guy who used to win elections criticizing Lallu Yadav's goonda raj, is going around taking photo-ops hugging the same guy he fought against, funny principles he has.There are more - He resigned saying he have moral responsibility for 2014 GE loss. Tried to appoint a supposed rubber stamp eyeing particular community vote.When rubber stamp tried to move he came back as CM
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