Monte Carlo probability of each team after Australia beats Bangladesh

[sage]

 

Looks like rest of the group stage will be a bore

Edited June 20, 2019 by sage

[Stan AF]

NZ can still lose to Aus/Eng and the west indies. who knows?

 

[straighttalk]

4 hours ago, sage said:

 

Looks like rest of the group stage will be a bore

But what is your implied probability when you are doing the simulation. You probably need to state what percentage ru giving bangladesh to win against india.. i would say 40 percent. That will drive your final results. 

[chewy]

looks like next half of group stage will worst than bi-lateral series

joke world cup continues

[sage]

1 hour ago, straighttalk said:

But what is your implied probability when you are doing the simulation. You probably need to state what percentage ru giving bangladesh to win against india.. i would say 40 percent. That will drive your final results. 

Using bookie odds

[nikred]

What's the minimum points for clear qualification even with low NRR and the one with high NRR?

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[G_B_]

a very interesting thread.

 

keep up the good form.

[zen]

15 minutes ago, nikred said:

What's the minimum points for clear qualification even with low NRR and the one with high NRR?

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11-12 points should make a team feel safe 

[sage]

[sage]

People overrating how "opened up" the WC is after today's upset. Top 4 still set

[zen]

3 minutes ago, sage said:

People overrating how "opened up" the WC is after today's upset. Top 4 still set

I think ppl a considering every option as it makes following a sport interesting .... Your simulation in 1992 could have ruled out Pak, for e.g., who made it based on a variety of outcomes going its way. And, I guess, that is what is being discussed 

 

As for the current top 4, depending upon their points, they only need 1-2 wins to feel secure/be confirmed  

[poi]

Where we are now with SL's huge upset against ENG:

 

 

The top4 hasn't really changed much, unless SL continues with future upsets. They only have less than 40,000  scenarios out of over 250,000 to definitely make it to top 3 (so NRR is irrelevant). With weighted probabilities, where a lot of those scenarios require massive upsets, the probability is less than 6%. Still, not 0% and SL hopes are alive. If we want more exciting WC, we need more upsets. ENG's rest of the matches are extremely difficult. But they have very high chance of making it to the semifinals. Ditto for India, Australia, and NZ.

Edited June 21, 2019 by poi

[sage]

 

% after NZ/Windies game. Pakistan winning today will open the tournament up more.

[sage]

[sage]

[sage]

Pak going from 2.92% to 19.66% rn (higher before last game) the only real upset on the cards

[sage]

 

Before Eng v Ind

[Vijy]

7 hours ago, sage said:

 

Before Eng v Ind

looks like Pak's odds dropped by a factor of 2 from before and after the Eng vs Ind match. however, even their current 20% chance isn't small. there's a decent chance that they may sneak through.