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randomGuy

Bitcoin equals tulip mania or will it survive (and prosper?)

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3 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

That's a very good comparison. I am not sure about the valuation of bitcoin. 

The valuation could be derived out of money it costs to mine a Bitcoin (arnd 10,000-20,000 usd per btc) through 'proof of work' calculations on high end computers , similar to gold mining...btc mining costs vary and change a lot i think....

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the underlying issue is risk appetite at a time the risk free rate of interest (as determined by US fed rate hikes) is on the rise.

 

Even high beta stocks have taken a beating (not as much as crpyto, but listed assets are deemed to be less risk as compared to crypto).

 

Considering the Fed is at 1% and saying they will raise rates to 4% to control inflation, we have a long way to go. Bitcoin IMO will survive, similar to the tech bubble. But a lot of these more risky stablecoins and cryptos will collapse.

 

For the record, economic history suggests evert single asset before it became mainstream has gone through periods of crushing declines before thought and regulation came in place. For our stock markets in the west this was the 1930s.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, zen said:

Right now we are in the bear market with Bitcoin correlated to the stock market. 

Some signals which could predict bottom imo - Most Alt coins crashing to zero, 'stable' coins like tether blowing up like luna, price going so low that people like Michael Saylor who bought btc on leverage having to force-sell etc.

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3 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Some signals which could predict bottom imo - Most Alt coins crashing to zero, 'stable' coins like tether blowing up like luna, price going so low that people like Michael Saylor who bought btc on leverage having to force-sell etc.


Difficult to predict the bottom but when the herd is in buying frenzy, it can be the top; when the herd is selling frantically, it can be the bottom. Crypto has the tendency to surprise  :dontknow:

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15 minutes ago, zen said:


Difficult to predict the bottom but when the herd is in buying frenzy, it can be the top; when the herd is selling frantically, it can be the bottom. Crypto has the tendency to surprise  :dontknow:

Do you have any? My brother had some (shiba inu, matic etc. ) I had to almost beat him up to get him to sell ....most cryptos investors are delusional imo....

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2 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Do you have any? My brother had some (shiba inu, matic etc. ) I had to almost beat him up to get him to sell ....most cryptos investors are delusional imo....


I have tons of dollars invested across various assets. 

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6 hours ago, randomGuy said:

The valuation could be derived out of money it costs to mine a Bitcoin (arnd 10,000-20,000 usd per btc) through 'proof of work' calculations on high end computers , similar to gold mining...btc mining costs vary and change a lot i think....

Mining mineral or extracting natural energies I can understand but Why would someone mine bitcoin?  Even tulip as a flower had some value.

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19 minutes ago, mishra said:

Mining mineral or extracting natural energies I can understand but Why would someone mine bitcoin?  Even tulip as a flower had some value.

The thesis is that Bitcoin is digital gold - a store of value because of its limited supply while the governments keep printing currencies, network effect, easy to hold and transact etc.

 

The questions since the beginning in my mind was why Bitcoin , why not 10000 other cryptocurrencies so if other cryptocurrencies are going to go to zero, the case for Bitcoin gets stronger...

 

I feel myself who never owned any cryptocurrency knows more about it than most holders unfortunately, which says that people have bought it without thinking through...

 

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8 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

The thesis is that Bitcoin is digital gold - a store of value because of its limited supply while the governments keep printing currencies, network effect, easy to hold and transact etc.

 

The questions since the beginning in my mind was why Bitcoin , why not 10000 other cryptocurrencies so if other cryptocurrencies are going to go to zero, the case for Bitcoin gets stronger...

 

I feel myself who never owned any cryptocurrency knows more about it than most holders unfortunately, which says that people have bought it without thinking through...

 

I do not think its about digital gold. For me, It is more of a way to bank illegal money and transfer across the border. Once transfer is done, its worthless. Simply put, its special vehicle beyond governments eyes for transaction and black money. So people putting their legally accounted money into it are net loosers

Edited by mishra
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49 minutes ago, mishra said:

Simply put, its special vehicle beyond governments eyes for transaction and black money.

 

In the developed countries, there is not much concept of black money, most retail investors do not need to send money across the border. There are Crypto related ETFs as well. 

 

People like Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, etc., invest a lot in a variety of assets including Crypto. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, zen said:

 

In the developed countries, there is not much concept of black money, most retail investors do not need to send money across the border. There are Crypto related ETFs as well. 

 

People like Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, etc., invest a lot in a variety of assets including Crypto. 

 

 

I agree with that bit. But in west, there is a lot of Drug money or money coming siphoned by rich people immigrating from developing countries to developed ones. A investor may gain, as demand for siphoning money is their but bit coin can and will serve only one purpose.

 

As thoudands of other crypto appear, there is absolutely no need for someone to use it as vehicle of transaction beyond eyes of government as long as their is understaning among Colombians , Easter European, Afghanis and Mexican

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5 minutes ago, mishra said:

I agree with that bit. But in west, there is a lot of Drug money or money coming siphoned by rich people immigrating from developing countries to developed ones. A investor may gain, as demand for siphoning money is their but bit coin can and will serve only one purpose.

 

As thoudands of other crypto appear, there is absolutely no need for someone to use it as vehicle of transaction beyond eyes of government as long as their is understaning among Colombians , Easter European, Afghanis and Mexican


Ppl could use Bitcoin to buy a Tesla too. Apple is planning to offer payment using Crypto using Apple Pay, may be as early as  by the end of 2022.

 

Crypto leaves a digital trace, which can be traced by governments if they want to devote sufficient resources. Also to open an account to transact Crypto, one needs to provide proper IDs.

 

Therefore to indulge in illegal transaction, one has to create fake IDs and so on.  People who want to indulge in fraud can use any instrument. Right now there could be someone attempting to smuggle a suitcase full of money across a border somewhere. 
 

 



 

 

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5 minutes ago, zen said:


Ppl could use Bitcoin to buy a Tesla too. Apple is planning to offer payment using Crypto using Apple Pay, may be as early as  by the end of 2022.

 

Crypto leaves a digital trace, which can be traced by governments if they want to devote sufficient resources. Also to open an account to transact Crypto, one needs to provide proper IDs.

 

 

 

If Mr Musk has declared that he will sell Tesla in Crypto, then I will sell TESLA shares too as Governments will not want a Capitalist to step on their foot. They will kill TESLA.

 

For point 2 u made, if true, Bitcoin is not reliable anymore and real people will switch another crypto for transactions.

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16 minutes ago, mishra said:

If Mr Musk has declared that he will sell Tesla in Crypto, then I will sell TESLA shares too as Governments will not want a Capitalist to step on their foot. They will kill TESLA.

 

For point 2 u made, if true, Bitcoin is not reliable anymore and real people will switch another crypto for transactions.


Tesla did accept Bitcoin, but it has stopped  currently citing environmental issues. 
 

There are 10-15 major companies including Home Depot that have begun to accept BTC iirc. 
 

All Cryptos leave a digital trace. To covert a Crypto to $$$ including transferring to a bank account is also a digital process. I hope that you are not exposed to some misinformation. :dontknow:

 


 

 

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1 hour ago, zen said:


Tesla did accept Bitcoin, but it has stopped  currently citing environmental issues. 
 

There are 10-15 major companies including Home Depot that have begun to accept BTC iirc. 
 

All Cryptos leave a digital trace. To covert a Crypto to $$$ including transferring to a bank account is also a digital process. I hope that you are not exposed to some misinformation. :dontknow:

 


 

 

So we are back to my initial update again i.e. only utility of crypto currency is as a vehicle of transaction and transfer beyond borders beyond govmnt and taxmens involvement. 
 

PS: Trust me, I understand crypto so much that I won’t recommend anyone (specially Indian) to ever invest there. If it’s still itching, Just bet on a bull run as long as u don’t mind to loose 100% of investment 

Edited by mishra
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