India's peak population approaching in 10-15 years

[randomGuy]

My own calculations say it will be in arnd year 2042-43. So I gave the data to AI (chatgpt 4) to see its projections. I told it to ignore UN projections (as they are always wrong and corrected downwards every 2 years. 

 

So here is what I asked 

"

Indian TFR was 6.18 in 1950 to 4.6 in 1980. By 2021, it had reduced further to 1.91, below the replacement rate of 2.1 . By year 2050, it will further reduce to 1.29 gradually. Use your mathematical models based on this, and on current population pyramid estimates and project when will the population peak. Ignore UN projections."

 

 

And here's the answer 

 

"To project when India’s population might peak, we can use the historical decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and current demographic trends.

 

### TFR Analysis

- **1950**: 6.18

- **1980**: 4.6

- **2021**: 1.91

- **2050 (projected)**: 1.29

 

### Population Growth Dynamics

1. **Current Population**: Approximately 1.4 billion (2023).

2. **Replacement Level**: 2.1 is the replacement fertility rate. TFR falling below this indicates that, without immigration, the population cannot sustain itself.

 

### Estimation of Population Peak

1. **Decline in TFR**: The TFR has decreased significantly over the decades, suggesting that the population growth rate will continue to decline. 

 

2. **Projected Trend**: The decline from 1.91 to 1.29 suggests that the TFR will remain low for several years, contributing to a demographic shift.

 

3. **Demographic Transition Model**: 

   - Countries with TFRs below the replacement level typically see population stabilization and eventual decline within 20-30 years after reaching that threshold.

   - Given the current trajectory and the demographic pyramid, we can expect an aging population.

 

### Projected Peak

- **Peak Population Estimate**: 

  - Assuming the population grows until around 2035-2040, with the growth rate slowing significantly due to low fertility rates and aging.

  - **Peak Year**: Likely around **2035** to **2040**, when the population could reach approximately 1.5 billion before beginning to decline.

 

### Conclusion

India's population is expected to peak around **2035-2040**, after which a gradual decline is anticipated due to continued low fertility rates and an aging demographic structure."

Edited October 19, 2024 by randomGuy

[randomGuy]

1. I still think peak will be in 2042-43 as possibly the AI hasn't accounted for life expectancy rise entirely.

 

2. The 1.29 TFR by 2050 which I have used is the Lancet estimates.

 

[G_B_]

That 2050 projected is from the lancet. Who have never got india predictions right

[Ranvir]

From 350 million at partition to 1.4 billion today. 

 

I'm not a fan of Indira but perhaps she was onto something with the forced sterilisation. 

 

Yet another reason why China is far ahead and India is unlikely to be a developed civil country in the near future. 

Edited October 19, 2024 by Ranvir

[randomGuy]

47 minutes ago, Ranvir said:

From 350 million at partition to 1.4 billion today. 

 

I'm not a fan of Indira but perhaps she was onto something with the forced sterilisation. 

 

Yet another reason why China is far ahead and India is unlikely to be a developed civil country in the near future. 

The reason why china is ahead which you gave in the other thread - one party rule, is more credible. If over population was an issue, it would have hampered china also. 

[gattaca]

1 hour ago, Ranvir said:

From 350 million at partition to 1.4 billion today. 

 

I'm not a fan of Indira but perhaps she was onto something with the forced sterilisation. 

 

Yet another reason why China is far ahead and India is unlikely to be a developed civil country in the near future. 

Population is important for growth as well china sustained growth because of manufacturing. They couldn’t be a manufacturing without population. India had poor policies. China communist country had capitalist policies for economy India a democratic country had socialist policies for economy. It is heavily influenced by Nehru and Indira both were socialists. Why do you think India is defined as socialist in constitution? 

[Muloghonto]

9 hours ago, randomGuy said:

1. I still think peak will be in 2042-43 as possibly the AI hasn't accounted for life expectancy rise entirely.

 

2. The 1.29 TFR by 2050 which I have used is the Lancet estimates.

 

1.29 is an absurd estimate, no middle income nation has that and few high income nations have that, there is no chance of india getting to that number by 2050.

 

[randomGuy]

8 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

1.29 is an absurd estimate, no middle income nation has that and few high income nations have that, there is no chance of india getting to that number by 2050.

 

2024 TFR of various countries (updated evry 10-15 days)

 

 

 

 

[Muloghonto]

2 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

2024 TFR of various countries (updated evry 10-15 days)

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers are wrong.

You dont have 15-20% decline in TFR rates in 12 months without a case of war or mass epidemic. 

 

[randomGuy]

^^thailand 2024 TFR 0.94

Chile .88

Columbia 1.1

Mexico 1.45

 

@Muloghonto few middle income countries for you. You are out of touch with data but that's ok.

[Muloghonto]

Just now, randomGuy said:

^^thailand 2024 TFR 0.94

Chile .88

Columbia 1.1

Mexico 1.45

 

@Muloghonto few middle income countries for you. You are out of touch with data but that's ok.

 

This isnt data. This is nonsense. Colombia went from 1.40 to 1.21 - a reduction of 15% in 12 months without any war/mass pandemic ? 

25% reduction in Chile's TFR in 12 months period, without any extraordinary events ?

Sorry, but these numbers dont make any sense when looking at actual TFR data through the years.

Not even Russia had such a catastrophic decline in a 1 year period during ww2.

 

[randomGuy]

5 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

 

This isnt data. This is nonsense. Colombia went from 1.40 to 1.21 - a reduction of 15% in 12 months without any war/mass pandemic ? 

25% reduction in Chile's TFR in 12 months period, without any extraordinary events ?

Sorry, but these numbers dont make any sense when looking at actual TFR data through the years.

Not even Russia had such a catastrophic decline in a 1 year period during ww2.

 

This data is compiled from various governments' numbers. And being compiled from a long time. And a well followed twitter handle.

 

A few anomalies/errors (for some there may be explanation) won't make your point valid. 

 

The fact is that TFRs are falling precipitously in developing world also.

Edited October 19, 2024 by randomGuy

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

This data is compiled from various governments' numbers. And being compiled from a long time. And a well followed twitter handle.

 

A few anomalies/errors (for some there may be explanation) won't make your point valid. 

 

The fact is that TFRs are falling precipitously in developing world also.

 

I dont care who this is on twitter, this data is wrong. Period. There has never been a 25% reduction in TFR in any nation's recorded history over a 12 year period without a massive genocidal war/total economic collapse like weimar republic or global pandemic. 

Go look at established TFR data for any country and show me a 25% reduction in a single year span. You literally will have to look at Nigeria of 1950s to go from 9 TFR to 8 inside a year to get such a big % drop.

 

[randomGuy]

Ek data point ko lekar rote raho...while various other data points on the same page are easy to verify just by a mere Google search.

 

 

Anyways here's your own state -

 

"Here are some other details about West Bengal's TFR: 

 

The TFR in West Bengal has been declining, with a record low of 1.4 in 2020. 

 

The TFR in Kolkata is around 1, making it the metro with the lowest TFR in the country"

 

https://theprint.in/health/what-explains-kolkatas-falling-fertility-rate-aspiration-financial-strain-contraceptive-coverage/757667/

 

Like I said, you may have been out of touch with your own state's data.

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Ek data point ko lekar rote raho...while various other data points on the same page are easy to verify just by a mere Google search.

 

 

Anyways here's your own state -

 

"Here are some other details about West Bengal's TFR: 

 

The TFR in West Bengal has been declining, with a record low of 1.4 in 2020. 

 

The TFR in Kolkata is around 1, making it the metro with the lowest TFR in the country"

 

https://theprint.in/health/what-explains-kolkatas-falling-fertility-rate-aspiration-financial-strain-contraceptive-coverage/757667/

 

Like I said, you may have been out of touch with your own state's data.

its not one. I gave two examples and your chart has half a dozen or so. 

As i said, find me a SINGLE nation in history that has seen 10-25% decline in TFR in a single calendar year minus global war/hyperinflation/mass pandemic. 

Since none exist in the last 75 years, i see no reason why this data isnt suspect.

 

[randomGuy]

5 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

its not one. I gave two examples and your chart has half a dozen or so. 

As i said, find me a SINGLE nation in history that has seen 10-25% decline in TFR in a single calendar year minus global war/hyperinflation/mass pandemic. 

Since none exist in the last 75 years, i see no reason why this data isnt suspect.

 

I could dig out entire govt data for all countries mentioned there, for all the years and 99% of the data on that page would prove to be correct. 

 

For ex. Thailand TFR 2022 : 1.16

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/declining-birthrates-will-see-thailand-s-population-drop-by-half-in-next-60-years-experts

Thailand TFR 2023: 1.05 (9% decline from 2022)

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/declining-birthrates-will-see-thailand-s-population-drop-by-half-in-next-60-years-experts

Thailand TFR 2024: 0.95 (9% decline based on live birth data from the govt. Which that twitter handle captures for all countries)

 

 

But way to miss the point, When your own state of WB has TFR of 1.4, and Kolkata city at 1.0, this was your point on topic "1.29 is an absurd estimate, no middle income nation has that and few high income nations have that, there is no chance of india getting to that number by 2050."

 

 

 

 

 

[Muloghonto]

2 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

I could dig out entire govt data for all countries mentioned there, for all the years and 99% of the data on that page would prove to be correct. 

 

For ex. Thailand TFR 2022 : 1.16

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/declining-birthrates-will-see-thailand-s-population-drop-by-half-in-next-60-years-experts

Thailand TFR 2023: 1.05 (9% decline from 2022)

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/declining-birthrates-will-see-thailand-s-population-drop-by-half-in-next-60-years-experts

Thailand TFR 2024: 0.95 (9% decline based on live birth data from the govt. Which that twitter handle captures for all countries)

 

 

But way to miss the point, When your own state of WB has TFR of 1.4, and Kolkata city at 1.0, this was your point on topic "1.29 is an absurd estimate, no middle income nation has that and few high income nations have that, there is no chance of india getting to that number by 2050."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The point is 12 month change figures of TFR are NEVER in the double digits % wise, even in 90% of actual warzone/economic collapse/pandemic case.

Not what the current TFR is. Yes, Kolkata may've gotten to 1.0 now, but you can bet your bottom dollar, it didnt have 1.15 or 1.20 last year, nor did west bengal, nor did ANY of these nations who's TFR are hovering around 1.4 mark.  IIRC WB went from 1.9 to 1.4 between 2000 and 2024. 
Most of these nations took over 30 years to get from 1.7 to 1.4

 

This is why i dont trust random twitter data, because its total garbage. 

[randomGuy]

8 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

 

The point is 12 month change figures of TFR are NEVER in the double digits % wise, even in 90% of actual warzone/economic collapse/pandemic case.

Not what the current TFR is. Yes, Kolkata may've gotten to 1.0 now, but you can bet your bottom dollar, it didnt have 1.15 or 1.20 last year, nor did west bengal, nor did ANY of these nations who's TFR are hovering around 1.4 mark.  IIRC WB went from 1.9 to 1.4 between 2000 and 2024. 
Most of these nations took over 30 years to get from 1.7 to 1.4

 

This is why i dont trust random twitter data, because its total garbage. 

1. During and after covid, the fall has been quite steep in various countries.

 

2. Your quote "IIRC WB went from 1.9 to 1.4 between 2000 and 2024."

 

Lancet estimates are quite similar. 

 

Actual TFR of India in 2021 - 1.9

Projections for 2050 - 1.29

 

There's nothing "absurd" about it as you claimed. And ofcourse India of 2050 would have High per capita income than WB of today (if per capita income and TFR has inverse correlation).

Edited October 19, 2024 by randomGuy

[Muloghonto]

1 minute ago, randomGuy said:

1. During and after covid, the fall has been quite steep in various countries.

 

2. Your quote "IIRC WB went from 1.9 to 1.4 between 2000 and 2024."

 

Lancet estimates are quite similar. 

 

Actual TFR of India in 2021 - 1.9

Projections for 2050 - 1.29

 

There's nothing "absurd" about it as you claimed. And ofcourse India of 2050 would have High per capita income than WB of today (if per capita income and TFR has inverse correlation).

It is very absurd to compare a decline of 26% over 25 years and a 15-25% decline in ONE calendar year. 

The likes of which, as i said, hasnt EVER happened by established data trends of TFR from 1960s to now. Anywhere in the world. 

That is why i am dismissive of this nonsense as 'data'. 

 

[ravishingravi]

For me, this is the issue on which India will crash. Apart from Islamic takeover. In fact, both are related. TFR among Hindus is crashing. The actual numbers will be even worse. For sense check, one just has to look around.