2014 Lok Sabha Elections thread |Exit poll results

[diga]

Why the NDTV survey is bad for democracy

At any other point in this election season, the NDTV survey would be excellent grist for widespread speculation. A media coup that answers the question on everyone's mind. The problem with the poll is not its conclusions but its timing. It comes right bang in the middle of the month-long election. More than half the country has yet to vote. Worse, due to the Election Commission rules, it explodes on the election landscape in splendid isolation. There will be no other polling to confirm or contradict its results, hence amplifying its impact. The NDTV survey honours the letter of the law but wholly violates its spirit. The EC deadline, which forbade the media from conducting opinion polls after 4 April, exists for good reason. It allows voters to go to the polling booth free from the influence of a continual stream of survey predictions. This is also the reason why the release of exit poll results is banned until all voting is completed. To side-step that law by exploiting a loophole -- as in all of NDTV's polling was completed before the deadline -- is just plain wrong. The network released some of its tracker data before 4 April, but then chose to withhold the results until now. The decision was surely driven by the need to maximise its impact: release the dhamaka results just when poll fever is at its peak and everyone is yearning for any indication of the outcome. It is certainly a big win for the network in the brutal media race for eyeballs. But at what cost? Predicting a giant win for one party is surely bound to influence voter behaviour -- irrespective of whether NDTV intends to do so (I for one don't believe it does). Creating a sense of inevitability often drives voters to plump for the predicted victor. This is all the more so in India where there is a significant electoral bandwagon effect, as in voters want to pick the winning side. As one of our senior editors told me, she encountered a number of voters on the campaign trial who planned to vote for Modi, but not because they knew anything about him. They had heard he would be good for the country, but more importantly, that he would win. This is the reason why all politicians insist they are going to win big irrespective of the facts. Sometimes saying so, over and again, does indeed help make it so. Within this context, releasing a survey that anoints Modi as the next PM is highly likely to affect future voter behaviour. If the NDTV survey helps the BJP, it also hurts the others. Not so much the Congress which ought have no illusions about its impending fate, but AAP which, more than any other party, needs to be seen as a viable party in order to survive. The prediction that it will lose big in its sole bastion, i.e. Delhi, will inevitably damp down enthusiasm of potential AAP voters in the rest of the country. To pretend otherwise is to be willfully naive. As with all else in this bitter campaign season, any such argument will be filtered through the prism of partisanship. Principle will matter little to those who welcome its findings, and will become a rallying cause for those who don't. And that is perhaps the greater tragedy of this election, irrespective of its outcome. Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjps-massive-win-why-the-ndtv-survey-is-bad-for-democracy-1480759.html?utm_source=ref_article

[Sachin=GOD]

The EC should take action against NDTV.

[cowboysfan]

Why the NDTV survey is bad for democracy

i cant disagree with this at all,a lot of people seem to ignore EC rules but i see they are rarely punished,it seems like EC should have more teeth.

[urbestfriend]

i cant disagree with this at all' date='a lot of people seem to ignore EC rules but i see they are rarely punished,it seems like EC should have more teeth.[/quote'] I have seen candiadates giving wrong affidavits and flouting the EC rules openly..TV channels are doing opinion polls in spite of EC order..Its almost like EC has no teeth and at the best, they will send a notice. Once election is over, everything is forgotten.

[cowboysfan]

BTW the bigget dhamaka of the NDTV poll(i watched most of it yesterday) is that BJP will win 51 seats in UP.It seems impossible for th BJP to go up from 10 to 51 in UP ,i dont think they will win more than 35 to 40 max.

[Sachin=GOD]

i cant disagree with this at all' date='a lot of people seem to ignore EC rules but i see they are rarely punished,it seems like EC should have more teeth.[/quote']

[urbestfriend]

I wouldn't be surprised if these polls would swing 1 or 2% votes towards BJP which would help them achieve 50 in UP. Usually in a closely contested election, a 1% vote swing is really huge.

[randomGuy]

I wouldn't be surprised if these polls would swing 1 or 2% votes towards BJP which would help them achieve 50 in UP. Usually in a closely contested election' date=' a 1% vote swing is really huge.[/quote'] Imagine if BJP gets 49% vote in every seat in UP. BSP gets 51% vote in 25 seats, zero percent in other 55 seats. Likewise Congress and SP get 51% votes in other different 25 seats each and zero elsewhere.:giggle:

[urbestfriend]

Imagine if BJP gets 49% vote in every seat in UP. BSP gets 51% vote in 25 seats' date=' zero percent in other 55 seats. Likewise Congress and SP get 51% votes in other different 25 seats each and zero elsewhere.:giggle:[/quote'] Why you scare some people here:--D ?

[Sachin=GOD]

awesome

[hhunaeh]

inspired from asterix and obelix

[hhunaeh]

but taking a swipe at kejriwal by showing him as cacofonix, sonia gandhi as ceasar, and modi as the big hero cheaftain vitalstatistix

[Yoda-esque]

Check out Karunanidhi

[ravishingravi]

The EC should take action against NDTV.

Completely agree with this. It is grossly unfair on congress and other smaller parties.

[ravishingravi]

Something funny is happening at IBN. People are leaving including Karan Thappar. There are rumours of pressure from corporates. Meanwhile HT has gone after Modi and BJP in blitz kreig fashion.

[Sachin=GOD]

Completely agree with this. It is grossly unfair on congress and other smaller parties.

can work both ways, no? BJP voters, especially the Urban Middle Class ones who anyways usually don't turn up in high numbers, may get complacent and may not vote.

Something funny is happening at IBN. People are leaving including Karan Thappar. There are rumours of pressure from corporates. Meanwhile HT has gone after Modi and BJP in blitz kreig fashion.

pressure from owners (Mukesh Ambani) to give more and more favorable coverage to Modi?

[randomGuy]

Btw Chief of Modi's PR agency is the Ex-CEO of Hansa Research. ----- Few winners from UP as of now - Kumar Vishwas Kejriwal Shazia Baba Hardev Javed Jaffrey Rioter from BJP in Muzaffernagar (cant recall the name) Varun Gandhi Menaka Gandhi Mulayam singh from Azam garh Sonia Gandhi

[urbestfriend]

can work both ways' date=' no? BJP voters, especially the Urban Middle Class ones who anyways usually don't turn up in high numbers, [b']may get complacent and may not vote. pressure from owners (Mukesh Ambani) to give more and more favorable coverage to Modi?

This is the most ridiculous stuff I have read for a while now. Are you saying that people who have decided to vote would see this and get complacent? :wall:

[asterix]

Whatever you've smoked... It's really potent... :nice:

----- Few winners from UP as of now - Kumar Vishwas Kejriwal Shazia Baba Hardev Javed Jaffrey Rioter from BJP in Muzaffernagar (cant recall the name) Varun Gandhi Menaka Gandhi Mulayam singh from Azam garh Sonia Gandhi

[bulbul]

Whatever you've smoked... It's really potent... :nice:

Atleast he put some BJP people this time..other wise it's only AAP guys who is winning across India :giggle: