Malaysian airlines mystery

[zen]

http://abcnews.go.com/video/embed?id=22931165 ^ A nice summary video by ABC

[Laaloo]

another comment I saw on yahoo:

I think this is what happened. Pilot had simulators at his house. Fact. Distance to Beijing 2700 air miles. Distance to Islamabad 2799 air miles. First 45 minutes heading to China. Transponder and all communication disabled. Fact. Military radar shows hard left (west) turn then extreme flying maneuvers from 45000 to 23000 feet. Fact. Engines send pings every 30 minutes to Derby, UK. Fact. Satellites show a NW or SW track. Fact. Last satellite , ping info at 08:11. Fact. Then what? After 100 km or 62 miles offshore civilian radar is not tracking you. This pilot knows that. He headed west over the thinnest part of Malaysia out to the Indian Ocean away from radar. Because he spent valuable fuel the first 45 minutes going to Beijing, he climbed to 45,000 feet, reduced engine fuel consumption and started a pattern of "enhanced glide sloping" to the 23,000 ft level. This will be done over the next 3 hours toward Dhaka Bangladesh. That's 1600 miles over open ocean with no radar. Glide slope ranges from 15:1 to 20:1. Assume low. 45000 - 23000 = 22000 ft x 15 ft = 330,000 ft / 5280 = 62.5 miles. This was done 3 times per hour over the next 3 hours to gain 500 to 600 miles. Pilot practiced this at home on simulator. The climbs back to 45000 burn very little fuel compared with the takeoff burn. Very efficient machine in thin air. Air corridor over Bangladesh and Nepal used with a small run to Pakistan. Poor countries with limited military capabilities. We already know the story with Pakistan and Bin Laden. Pakistan. Nuclear armed and a haven for terrorist. Not a good place for a missing 777. Let's hope this pilot miscalculated and found the Indian Ocean. Poor passengers. Terrible for them no matter what the final outcome of this flight turns out to be.

Is this possible?

[zen]

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2014/03/15/cnn-starr-missing-plane.cnn.html ^ Also CNN Video Appears as if concrete clues don't show up in the next few days - this may be wrapped up as one of the unsolved mysteries Lessons' learned: * When the airlines realize that a plane is missing ----> Notify immediately, so the tracking networks around the world become more active * It is better to intercept a plane, then just let things drift as once a plane decides to disappear - things can get out of control * A need for the military monitoring team to be more alert and proactive

[IndianRenegade]

another comment I saw on yahoo: Is this possible?

I am not too sure considering most people on board are chinese... they will be so pissed off if Pak is known to be involved...

[cowboysfan]

Apply for a Malaysian visa' date=' you'd know.[/quote'] no need to apply for visa.I have been to malaysia and you get visa on arrival.

[Tiger-Don]

why would they let the pilots control the tracking system..it should be on regardless....

[zen]

another comment I saw on yahoo: Is this possible?

Pak has denied that its systems saw any unidentified plane, but there is always a possibility (in the absence of solid clues and gaps in the coverage area). Ind/Pak would have analyzed the radar data over the week. However talking about the northern corridor, it is more likely to land at some place in Burma, somewhere in central Asia, etc. The video below explains the possible paths through northern corridor nicely: CNN - Short Analysis of the Northern Corridor

[zen]

CNN Conspiracy Theories - Video

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

the question MAS or MAF has not answered is what did they do when they spotted an unidentified flying object on their radar. they wouldn't have kept quiet.

[zen]

the question MAS or MAF has not answered is what did they do when they spotted an unidentified flying object on their radar. they wouldn't have kept quiet.

Post #360

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

Post #360

got it. but does it sound convincing? that 3 4 radars stations missed it as a blip. is that the air security in Malaysia. I have serious doubts on that. Air Surveillance is very very strict in Asia

[zen]

got it. but does it sound convincing? that 3 4 radars stations missed it as a blip. is that the air security in Malaysia. I have serious doubts on that. Air Surveillance is very very strict in Asia

I would say air surveillance is suppose to be strict in Asia, but it is probably not. There are systems in place, but the issue is probably with people who manage/monitor those systems. If you recall, there were so many mixed reports at the start of this investigation. Either people monitoring the radars did not take it seriously or missed it, or no action was taken despite their reports. Not to mention, the Malaysian military submitted the raw data for analysis to validate if the unidentified was indeed MH370. It appears as no major actions were taken.

[zen]

Never saw MH370 on radars, neighbours tell Malaysia

Malaysia’s efforts to “refine” data on the possible location of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 hit an early snag after several neighbours said they have no radar records of the missing plane. Indonesia said its two radar stations in the Aceh province, nearest to where Malaysia lost sight of the Boeing 777-200ER carrying 239 people in the Straits of Malacca, found no indication of the aircraft. Royal Thai Air Force and the state-owned Aeronautical Radio of Thailand both said they found nothing to show that MH370 had entered the country’s airspace. Myanmar’s Department of Civil Aviation said its three radars saw no data plots that might have been the missing plane.

Additionally, Pak and Ind have said something on similar lines. Aus is looking in to this but believe that it is no information yet about sighting the plane - This leaves the southern Indian Ocean and remote areas of Central Asia as leading destinations On the other hand Link:

Malaysian officials have been resisting help from the FBI and Interpol, said Representative Peter King, a member of the House homeland security committee who leads its panel on counterterrorism and intelligence.

Since there are no concrete clues - by following the process of elimination whatever remains, however absurd, could be true

[Raghav_12]

Never saw MH370 on radars' date=' neighbours tell Malaysia[/url'] Additionally, Pak and Ind have said something on similar lines. Aus is looking in to this but believe that it is no information yet about sighting the plane - This leaves the southern Indian Ocean and remote areas of Central Asia as leading destinations On the other hand Link: Since there are no concrete clues - by following the process of elimination whatever remains, however absurd, could be true

One thing I don't understand with these efforts in locating plane is why they are using only final ping (which came at 8 11 AM Malaysian time) to guess the location of the plane. If I understand correctly there were pings every hour and so they can come up with possible locations corresponding to each hour's ping and based on that they can construct possible paths. I can guess reasons for them being interested only in final location as craft is most likely to be found at those locations only, however some insight in possible paths would help rule out of some of the possible areas on both of those arcs and thus reducing the whole area of search.

[zen]

One thing I don't understand with these efforts in locating plane is why they are using only final ping (which came at 8 11 AM Malaysian time) to guess the location of the plane. If I understand correctly there were pings every hour and so they can come up with possible locations corresponding to each hour's ping and based on that they can construct possible paths. I can guess reasons for them being interested only in final location as craft is most likely to be found at those locations only' date=' however some insight in possible paths would help rule out of some of the possible areas on both of those arcs and thus reducing the whole area of search.[/quote'] I guess, each ping would have given a wide range similar to what we saw for the final ping, i.e. points on both sides (north and south) of the last location identified by the military radar. I think for the pings, they used data from Inmarsat. The wide range provided by the data would have made it very hard to model a path. However, since the final ping was at 8.11 am (7+ hours on air), the plane would not have enough fuel to go farther. Interestingly the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, a relatively rogue area, falls into the range as well.

[Raghav_12]

^ Actually the only information that satellite is giving corresponding to any ping is an angle at which satellite, which itself stationed 35000 k above earth, received signal from the jet. So possible locations based on this angle will form a complete circle. Now considering some points on this circle, which will go through some part of Europe and Africa as well, will be too far to be covered within six hours of flight, they have been ruled out and what we are left with are two arches that we are seeing in all the graphics. I still believe if they consider these arches for some intermediate points as well, they may probably be able to reduce the possible areas on these arches.

[zen]

^ Actually the only information that satellite is giving corresponding to any ping is an angle at which satellite, which itself stationed 35000 k above earth, received signal from the jet. So possible locations based on this angle will form a complete circle. Now considering some points on this circle, which will go through some part of Europe and Africa as well, will be too far to be covered within six hours of flight, they have been ruled out and what we are left with are two arches that we are seeing in all the graphics. I still believe if they consider these arches for some intermediate points as well, they may probably be able to reduce the possible areas on these arches.

From what I visualize, it would probably be circles within circles, something like in the image below: May be you could use the image, make random points and see if a path can be modeled :hmmm:

[rkt.india]

'All right, good night': Final contact received from MH370 after systems shutdown - The last words from the cockpit of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 - "all right, good night" - were uttered after someone on board had already begun disabling one of the plane's automatic tracking systems, a senior Malaysian official said. Both the timing and informal nature of the phrase, spoken to air traffic controllers as the plane with 239 people aboard was leaving Malaysian-run airspace on a March 8 flight to Beijing, could further heighten suspicions of hijacking or sabotage. The sign-off came after one of the plane's data communication systems, which would have enabled it to be tracked beyond radar coverage, had been deliberately switched off, Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said on Sunday. "The answer to your question is yes, it was disabled before," he told reporters when asked if the ACARS system - a maintenance computer that sends back data on the plane's status - had been deactivated before the voice sign-off. Read: Malaysia PM makes SOS call to Manmohan The pilot's informal hand-off went against standard radio procedures, which would have called for him to read back instructions for contacting the next control centre and include the aircraft's call sign, said Hugh Dibley, a former British Airways pilot and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society. Investigators are likely to examine the recording for any signs of psychological stress and to determine his identity to confirm whether the flight deck had been taken over by hijackers or the pilot himself was involved, he said. Malaysian investigators are trawling through the backgrounds of the pilots, crew and ground staff who worked on the missing Boeing 777-200ER for clues as to why someone on board flew it perhaps thousands of miles off course. Read: India suspends search for missing Malaysian jet MH370, awaits new instructions Background checks of passengers have drawn a blank but not every country whose nationals were on board has responded to requests for information, police chief Khalid Abu Bakar said. No trace of the plane has been found more than a week after it vanished but investigators believe it was diverted by someone with deep knowledge of the plane and commercial navigation. Malaysia briefed envoys from nearly two dozen nations and appealed for international help in the search for the plane along two arcs stretching from the shores of the Caspian Sea to the far south of the Indian Ocean. "The search area has been significantly expanded," Hishammuddin said. "From focusing mainly on shallow seas, we are now looking at large tracts of land, crossing 11 countries, as well as deep and remote oceans." The plane's disappearance has baffled investigators and aviation experts. It disappeared from civilian air traffic control screens off Malaysia's east coast less than an hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur en route to Beijing. Malaysian authorities believe that, as the plane crossed the country's northeast coast and flew across the Gulf of Thailand, someone on board shut off its communications systems and turned sharply to the west. Electronic signals it continued to exchange periodically with satellites suggest it could have continued flying for nearly seven hours after flying out of range of Malaysian military radar off the northwest coast, heading towards India. The plane had enough fuel to fly for about seven-and-a-half to eight hours, Malaysia Airlines' Chief Executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said. Malaysian officials briefed ambassadors from 22 countries on the progress of the investigation and appealed for international cooperation, diplomats said on Sunday. PILOTS' HOMES SEARCHED On Saturday, police special branch officers searched the homes of the captain, 53-year-old Zaharie Ahmad Shah, and first officer, 27-year-old Fariq Abdul Hamid, in middle-class suburbs of Kuala Lumpur close to the international airport. An experienced pilot, Zaharie has been described by current and former co-workers as a flying enthusiast who spent his days off operating a life-sized flight simulator he had set up at home. Police chief Khalid said investigators had taken the flight simulator for examination by experts. Earlier, a senior police official said the flight simulator programmes were closely examined, adding they appeared to be normal ones that allow players to practice flying and landing in different conditions. Read: MH370's pilots investigated as fears of '9/11 style plot' grow Police sources said they were looking at the personal, political and religious backgrounds of both pilots and the other crew members. Khalid said ground support staff who might have worked on the plane were also being investigated. A second senior police official told Reuters investigators had found no links between Zaharie, a father of three grown-up children and a grandfather, and any militant group. Postings on his Facebook page suggest the pilot was a politically active opponent of the coalition that has ruled Malaysia for the 57 years since independence. A day before the plane vanished, Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was convicted of sodomy and sentenced to five years in prison, in a ruling his supporters and international human rights groups say was politically influenced. Asked if Zaharie's background as an opposition supporter was being examined, the first senior police officer would say only: "We need to cover all our bases." Malaysia Airlines has said it did not believe Zaharie would have sabotaged the plane and colleagues were incredulous. "Please, let them find the aircraft first. Zaharie is not suicidal, not a political fanatic as some foreign media are saying," a Malaysia Airlines pilot who is close to Zaharie told Reuters. "Is it wrong for anyone to have an opinion about politics?" Co-pilot Fariq was religious and serious about his career, family and friends said. The two pilots had not made any request to fly together. - See more at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/malaysianairlinemystery2014/all-right-good-night-haunting-final-contact-from-missing-mh370-uttered-after-disabling-of-tracking-systems-started/article1-1196329.aspx#sthash.2TqyrvVV.dpuf

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

From what I visualize, it would probably be circles within circles, something like in the image below: May be you could use the image, make random points and see if a path can be modeled :hmmm:

you will get two paths. that is because a point gives 2 tangents to a circle and not one. you can never do a clear path because the ping is at each hour and that each hourly ping will give a range and not an exact point. and after the last ping the plane may have gone on for 59 minutes 59 seconds. Think what they have done is right. trying to find a pic which show the range around the red lines as to where the plane can be meanwhile another freak accident in US. no casualties. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/photo/delta-plane-loses-wing-panel-during-flight-n54306

[b555]

Eight days after Flight MH370 vanished, Malaysian authorities are seeking diplomatic permission to investigate a theory that the Boeing 777 may have been flown under the radar to Taliban-controlled bases on the border of Afghanistan and North West Pakistan, The Independent has learnt.