BeautifulGame Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 I know equations change quickly but Vasan was only saying this few months back Vasan slams Modi govt. At a Christmas celebration, TMC president G.K. Vasan slammed the Modi government for being the force behind the RSS and the VHP in its bid to reconvert those of other faiths. Mr. Vasan said his party would go all out to oppose such an agenda. Not sure how keen he will be to join BJP
velu Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 Seems the bjp in tamil nadu wants to tie up with the Tamil Manilla Congress and DMDK they will dump the PMK. it is better for BJP to be with ADMK or to contest alone.. vijaykanth is a joker
G_B_ Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @velu truth is they will be wiped out if they contest alone In 2016 April most of the BJP focus will be in Assam followed by WB. TN and Kerala will mostly be ignored in terms of visits by major leaders. I doubt the AMDK will want to contest with anybody. I value their vote share at about 40-45%. @BE its not so simple. DMDK cadre has be given X amount of positions which the central government controls in TN in administrative services. Whats the DMDK going to do joining up with the DMK? Play second fiddle in a combination which is most likely going to lose? Might as well stay with the BJP and pick up small perks of power which come with the central government. The situation is quite fluid. If the DMK manage to float a pan ADMK alliance with all of the PMK DMDK Commies IUML etc (highly unlikely) then the AMDK might buffer itself a bit and form a coalition with the BJP.
G_B_ Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 I know equations change quickly but Vasan was only saying this few months back Vasan slams Modi govt. Not sure how keen he will be to join BJP he will have to join somebody. Either he will join the DMK led alliance or one alliance involving the BJP or an alliance with the ADMK
Gollum Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rajasthan-government-plans-to-use-cow-urine-as-a-disinfectant-in-hospitals-760777 Rajasthan Government Plans to Use Cow Urine as a Disinfectant in Hospitals Seriously disappointed with the Rajasthan Govt. Why do these stupid trials in government hospitals where poor people come for treatment. A bunch of illiterates run the Raje govt it seems !!
BeautifulGame Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @GB The first priority currently for DMDK now is making sure Amma doesn't come back and survival of Party .If DMDK blanks again in assembly elections and Amma returns to power Vijayakanth is finished . So he is desperately trying to unite all opposition parties under a untied front and fight the elections like they did in 2001 and 96 He has already started coalition talks with DMK in that aim acc to local media .They probably want a alliance which includes DMK DMDK Cong Communists MDMK TMMK VC etc Obviously there will be seat sharing issues etc and the alliance may not happen but atm both parties want to stitch together an alliance and have a united front . Also there is zero chance of PMK and DMDK in the same alliance PMK will either contest alone or join BJP/DMK camp based on where DMDK is going
G_B_ Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @BE there is a good chance they will blank in the assembly with that combo you have suggest. I actually do hope that happens (the pan coalition) and i hope the BJP do ally with the AIADMK. btw whats DMDK's equation with AMMA? they not get along or?
BeautifulGame Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @BE there is a good chance they will blank in the assembly with that combo you have suggest. I actually do hope that happens (the pan coalition) and i hope the BJP do ally with the AIADMK. btw whats DMDK's equation with AMMA? they not get along or? We never voted anyone back to power consecutive terms after MGR.So they will have more than a fair chance tbh Jaya and vijayakanth absolutely loath each other.Has been the same way ever since he lauched his party .Both has big egos and Vijayankath is bit of an idiot .Even when they formed the alliance for 2011 elections they avoided meeting each other all through the campaigning . And after winning it turned even worse and both made disgusting remarks about each other even inside the Assembly .They broke it of in weeks and ever since Amma is actively trying to break up DMDK and finish off the party .4-5 MLAs left for ADMK and his right hand man also was lured off.
G_B_ Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 she is the heir to ramchandran in many ways will be surprised if ADMK are not voted back to power. I am sure she wont mind forming an alliance with the BJP if push comes to shove and it gets tight.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @those saying that BJP will win in UP if its fighting against SP/BSP/CONG/MIM - I agree BUT as of right now BSP is in a pretty bad shape. There have been lots of big exits and dissatisfaction at Mayawati's ruling style. Cong, despite doing well in the recent bypoll, is still very weak and fighting for the 4th spot. So there may not be such a division of votes as is expected by people. Of course all this can change in 18 months.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted May 6, 2015 Posted May 6, 2015 @those saying that BJP will win in UP if its fighting against SP/BSP/CONG/MIM - I agree BUT as of right now BSP is in a pretty bad shape. There have been lots of big exits and dissatisfaction at Mayawati's ruling style. Cong' date=' despite doing well in the recent bypoll, is still very weak and fighting for the 4th spot. So there may not be such a division of votes as is expected by people. Of course all this can change in 18 months.[/quote'] BJP needs a division of muslim votes and a chunk of dalit votes.BSP MIM n Congress can do that even today.
Texan Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 BJP needs to project a strong leader in UP if they want to win there. Is there anyone that can be projected as the CM candidate? Perhaps, Varun Gandhi might be a name that resonates with voters.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 BJP needs a division of muslim votes and a chunk of dalit votes.BSP MIM n Congress can do that even today. A division of Muslim votes will happen if at least 2 of SP/BSP/CONG/MIM are strong - right now only SP is strong, others are in a very weak position and MIM is just coming to UP.
jalebi_bhai Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 Should AFSPA be enforced in WB? I mean, the communal situation is absolutely hopeless there.
G_B_ Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 BJP needs to project a strong leader in UP if they want to win there. Is there anyone that can be projected as the CM candidate? Perhaps' date=' Varun Gandhi might be a name that resonates with voters.[/quote'] they will go for joint leadership as always
jalebi_bhai Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 they will go for joint leadership as always Btw, how are preparations for Bihar going? PS: Thanks in advance. I won't be able to reply immediately, going to crash now.
G_B_ Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 Btw, how are preparations for Bihar going? PS: Thanks in advance. I won't be able to reply immediately, going to crash now. they have identified a list of candidates.From the bjp and many from other parties or powerful independents. I am seeing that the seat distribution should be around 180 BJP 20 Khushwaha and 43 Paswan. Considering the BJP have contested about 100 odd seats for the last decade or so, its not an issue in terms of rebels. The big question in terms of the BJP is (A) what % of yadav's do they give tickets to. Clearly they are aiming to break the Yadav vote. However if Pappu yadav does break away from the RJD there is a good chance they wont need to break the Yadav vote as Pappu will do that for them. In the lok sabha 2014 i think yadavs votes 70% laloo and 30% NDA. (this is a rough split). (B) Do they form an alliance with Manjhi. As mentioned before. Manjhi will be a net addition to their vote base. If i had to guess the bjp alliance is around 35% of the popular vote. The Janta alliance is around 40%. Manjhi has the ability to put them at the 40%. Obviously again a lot depends on pappu yadav. He breaks from the janata pariwar they will also be stuck at 35% and the BJP does not need to ally with manjhi as their competitor is being pulled back. Manjhi did make anti upper caste comments. But he also provided reservations to poorer upper castes. So i dont think the BJP's core support base has any issues with manjhi. The problem for the BJP is in a triple alliance how many seats do they give manjhi? Clearly him and Paswan are going to both demand SC reserved seats. Also, BJP IMO need to contest 180 seats to have any chance of forming government on their own. Even if they give Manjhi 30 seats. That means they have to win 123 out of 150 which is a tall order. © There are too many factions in the BJP bihar. Strategy is simple. Have you cake and eat it to. Modi the PM will have 20-25 rallies spread across various stages. So it will be a highly concentrated Modi. In terms of have your cake and eat it to. Nandkishore Yadav will claim or project himself as CM to attract Yadav votes. SuMo will do the same and muliple smaller leaders will do the same. This reminds me of Mahrashtra, in north maha Khadse projected himself as CM, in marathwada punkaja munde projected herself as heir of Gopinath Munde and projected herself and in Mumbai Twade claimed the state deserved a mumbai based CM. (D) RSS is mobilising in Bihar and Assam. Unlike Delhi RSS will provide cadre and muscle to the BJP in both states. Due to being in alliance in Jd(u) for so long there have been certain districts which the BJP does not have the infra in. Thats where the RSS will step up and they have been deployed since about Feb when Bhagwat was irritated by what he saw in Delhi. 80-90% of RSS cadre should be in position by July. Its quite a fluid situation at the moment. The key for the bjp is pappu yadav and the degree to which he divides yadav votes. The BJP and allies are sort of range bound at 35%. Its more a case of wait for the janata pariwar to slip. It could very well be pappu yadav stays within the janata family but causes chaos from within. Janata pariwar rebel independents could end up polling about 10%
Sachin=GOD Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 *On Tuesday, the BJP's parliamentary party meeting was halted abruptly as Bharat Singh, the *MP from Ballia in Uttar Pradesh, began to criticise the government in presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Singh said that the government had failed to do “anything on the ground”, officials said, adding that his outburst was so abrupt that *Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu, who was coordinating the meeting, had no option but to intervene. Bharat Singh took the mike and said that because of the government’s inaction over the past year, MPs like him had to face the ire of the people in their constituencies. Singh’s intervention stunned everyone and before he could speak further, Naidu intervened and declared that the meeting was over, officials said.
jalebi_bhai Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 they have identified a list of candidates.From the bjp and many from other parties or powerful independents. I am seeing that the seat distribution should be around 180 BJP 20 Khushwaha and 43 Paswan. Considering the BJP have contested about 100 odd seats for the last decade or so, its not an issue in terms of rebels. The big question in terms of the BJP is (A) what % of yadav's do they give tickets to. Clearly they are aiming to break the Yadav vote. However if Pappu yadav does break away from the RJD there is a good chance they wont need to break the Yadav vote as Pappu will do that for them. In the lok sabha 2014 i think yadavs votes 70% laloo and 30% NDA. (this is a rough split). (B) Do they form an alliance with Manjhi. As mentioned before. Manjhi will be a net addition to their vote base. If i had to guess the bjp alliance is around 35% of the popular vote. The Janta alliance is around 40%. Manjhi has the ability to put them at the 40%. Obviously again a lot depends on pappu yadav. He breaks from the janata pariwar they will also be stuck at 35% and the BJP does not need to ally with manjhi as their competitor is being pulled back. Manjhi did make anti upper caste comments. But he also provided reservations to poorer upper castes. So i dont think the BJP's core support base has any issues with manjhi. The problem for the BJP is in a triple alliance how many seats do they give manjhi? Clearly him and Paswan are going to both demand SC reserved seats. Also, BJP IMO need to contest 180 seats to have any chance of forming government on their own. Even if they give Manjhi 30 seats. That means they have to win 123 out of 150 which is a tall order. © There are too many factions in the BJP bihar. Strategy is simple. Have you cake and eat it to. Modi the PM will have 20-25 rallies spread across various stages. So it will be a highly concentrated Modi. In terms of have your cake and eat it to. Nandkishore Yadav will claim or project himself as CM to attract Yadav votes. SuMo will do the same and muliple smaller leaders will do the same. This reminds me of Mahrashtra, in north maha Khadse projected himself as CM, in marathwada punkaja munde projected herself as heir of Gopinath Munde and projected herself and in Mumbai Twade claimed the state deserved a mumbai based CM. (D) RSS is mobilising in Bihar and Assam. Unlike Delhi RSS will provide cadre and muscle to the BJP in both states. Due to being in alliance in Jd(u) for so long there have been certain districts which the BJP does not have the infra in. Thats where the RSS will step up and they have been deployed since about Feb when Bhagwat was irritated by what he saw in Delhi. 80-90% of RSS cadre should be in position by July. Its quite a fluid situation at the moment. The key for the bjp is pappu yadav and the degree to which he divides yadav votes. The BJP and allies are sort of range bound at 35%. Its more a case of wait for the janata pariwar to slip. It could very well be pappu yadav stays within the janata family but causes chaos from within. Janata pariwar rebel independents could end up polling about 10% Thanks again. So I get that niche players like Pappu Yadav and Manjhi will have a telling say on the outcome. One more question, will the factionalism hurt their prospects in the long run or will Bhagwat be able to bring them in line and prevent any self-sabotage? Unlike Delhi, which was a prestige issue, this election actually matters electorally. Hopefully the vote-share distribution isn't too lopsided.
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