Modi sarkar economic reforms/governance performance thread

[Singh bling]

Quote

Credit growth plunges to over 60-year low of 5.1% in FY17

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/credit-growth-plunges-to-over-60year-low-of-5-in-fy17/article9642151.ece

 

[surajmal]

You can thank 10 years of UPA loot for that. There is a reason all the cronies are quiet and go with the mainstream thought process that Economy is good, Reforms are good...Namo Namo namo.. whenever they are on stage. 90% of the NPAs belong to the Godrej, Reliance, Essar etc 

If these feckers, even look the wrong way at the government, they are finished. Core brass of government is mad as hell that they have to carry the baton to right the ship.

If foreign cash hadn't been coming into the economy to keep things moving, Namo and co. would have already torpedoed the ship and rebuilt from scratch.   

[Tibarn]

Sharing screenshots of this excellent infographic

Of 30 Major Economic Reforms Modi Government has Completed 21 thus far. 9 Remaining. 

 

Go to the link for an interactive graphic

http://indiareforms.csis.org/

 

 

Modi is easily leaving all other PMs in the dust in terms of economic reform. 

[surajmal]

http://www.firstpost.com/business/new-npa-package-for-banks-makes-rbi-more-powerful-its-a-move-in-the-right-direction-3423316.html

 

Hopefully we will see resolution of the npa problem soon. Cronies of Congress have made sure that instead of 10 percent growth, we are limited to 7+ percent. 

[surajmal]

Much of the npas are in metals/mining and Power. Govt. should just take these over and make them functional. Demand bounce back is inevitable in these sectors. Take haircuts on the rest and move on. 

[surajmal]

Not that it needs to be repeated, the biggest obstacle for any positive step remains : the courts. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-08/india-s-bad-debt-crisis-cleanup-faces-a-long-day-in-court

 

 

[Tibarn]

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/qubBuuqLrxlj9O7RHftfEN/The-GST-antiprofiteering-weapon.html

Quote

We expect companies to cooperate. We hope we don’t have to use the weapon”. This was the threat issued by Hasmukh Adhia, India’s revenue secretary (“GST: Hasmukh Adhia warns industry against hiking prices arbitrarily”, The Indian Express, 20 May). Adhia was demanding “cooperation” from corporate India on pricing of their goods and services after the implementation of goods and services tax (GST). In other words, he implied that the pricing of goods and services should be in compliance with the government’s expectations. If companies failed to comply, he warned that the government has a weapon to unleash on them—the “anti profiteering” clause. This new “weapon” in the arsenal of the Union government has been designed and launched as part of the GST Bill. The government can now create a new “Authority” which will decide whether businesses have reduced their prices “enough” when there is a reduction in the GST rate of a particular good or service.

Let’s play this out. Today, a ghee dosa at a popular restaurant in New Delhi costs Rs160. The same dosa in the same chain in Chennai costs Rs80. GST rates of ghee are now fixed at 12%, which is a reduction from the current 12.5% tax for ghee in Delhi but an increase from the current 5% in Chennai. But GST rates for services in an air-conditioned restaurant are 18%, down from 22% in both the states.

So, as per the government’s“expectations of cooperation”, this restaurant should now drop its price of ghee dosa in its outlets in Delhi and the quantum of this price decrease should be a precise weighted average of the GST rate reductions of half a percentage point for ghee and four percentage points for service tax. Ostensibly, an officer from the new “Anti Profiteering Authority of India” will now do this calculation and inspect the restaurant in Delhi to check if the price of ghee dosa has indeed been reduced by this amount.

...

Instead, what should enrage economists and commentators is this potential throwback to the 1960s. Phrases such as “anti profit”, “authority”, “expect cooperation from businesses”, “weapon”, etc., bandied about in public by one of India’s senior most bureaucrats, is unbecoming of a nation that just celebrated its silver jubilee of “economic liberalization”. The last time India had an anti-profiteering legislation was the West Bengal Anti-Profiteering Act of 1958.

The Competition Commission with a mandate to protect the consumer from industry cartelization has been fully functional for eight years now and has earned a good reputation for itself. Rather than create yet another regulator, the GST law could have merely conferred referral powers to the GST Council to refer suspicious cases of price hoarding to the Competition Commission. It is not hard to imagine how officers of this new “Anti Profit Authority” can raise arbitrary objections to what they deem is a “fair” price of a certain good or service after a GST reduction and threaten to levy penalties.

 

Modi is going full Bandit Nehru with this.   BJP's transformation into Congress is almost complete. 

Edited June 30, 2017 by Tibarn

[Bostatcbr]

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[Maleryibsp]

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[surajmal]

All the macro indicators are lining up right now. As soon as the NPAs are sorted and investment cycle turns, 10% growth is a certainty. 

[surajmal]

NPAs and GST effect (plus residual effect of Demo) on month of June fecking up GDP numbers. 

Edited August 31, 2017 by surajmal

[Tibarn]

No RBI rate cuts and the currency being too strong are not going to help expand the economy. 

 

BJP needs to cobble together some parties for Labor reform. I don't see how Jobs can be created to a large enough scale without Labor reform. 

[surajmal]

2 minutes ago, Tibarn said:

No RBI rate cuts and the currency being too strong are not going to help expand the economy. 

 

BJP needs to cobble together some parties for Labor reform. I don't see how Jobs can be created to a large enough scale without Labor reform. 

If labour reforms don't get passed in the next session, it will be postponed until general elections are over. Can't see Namo taking huge risks in election year. 

[Tibarn]

10 minutes ago, surajmal said:

If labour reforms don't get passed in the next session, it will be postponed until general elections are over. Can't see Namo taking huge risks in election year. 

Some of the states are going ahead with Labor reforms, but without a national level Labor reform push, backwards states like West Bengal and Bihar are likely not going to do much reform.

 

I agree with you that it isn't likely until after the LS elections, but Namo will have egg on his face regarding job creation... 

[Tibarn]

I've read an article recently which states that India's real unemployment rate is actually closer to 30%, rather than 5%. 

 

These Socialist b@stards really did * up the country, and then they tried to hide this sh#t. This is why low IQ and Humanities type people shouldn't be allowed to contest elections. Chewts don't know anything in the first place, when in power do nautanki, and then their sycophants take empty speeches/phrases as achievement.    

[surajmal]

51 minutes ago, Tibarn said:

I've read an article recently which states that India's real unemployment rate is actually closer to 30%, rather than 5%. 

 

These Socialist b@stards really did * up the country, and then they tried to hide this sh#t. This is why low IQ and Humanities type people shouldn't be allowed to contest elections. Chewts don't know anything in the first place, when in power do nautanki, and then their sycophants take empty speeches/phrases as achievement.    

Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley just came out with a paper that proves what we already know that in India , economics has little to do with reelection. Namo knows this (even Swamy has said the same several times in interviews), ABV didn't. 

 

Liberandus , for the first time in their history , are focusing on real issue like governance and economy... They know elections are already lost so may as well score some punches on bjp while they can. 

Edited August 31, 2017 by surajmal

[Tibarn]

On 8/31/2017 at 1:00 PM, surajmal said:

Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley just came out with a paper that proves what we already know that in India , economics has little to do with reelection. Namo knows this (even Swamy has said the same several times in interviews). 

 

Liberandus , for the first time in their history , are focusing on real issue like governance and economy... They know elections are already lost so may as well score some punches on bjp while they can. 

 

 

 

However,  the 30%+ unemployment rate really shows how deep in tattie these "geniuses" left the economy in. 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2017 by Tibarn

[Tibarn]

 

Lol, this guy was the Finance Minister 

[mishra]

On 8/31/2017 at 6:28 PM, Tibarn said:

 

 

 

However,  the 30%+ unemployment rate really shows how deep in tattie these "geniuses" left the economy in. 

 

 

Yes, 30% unemployment among Indian men is probably correct estimate. All u need to do is visit small towns and villages. See how many of them are playing cards or chatting in front of tea/pan stall. And after the chat or game, they just return their home.

[The Outsider]

The economy has been ruined. The 5.7% growth rate (this would be 3.5-4% using the old method of calculations) barely scratches the surface. It is largely on the back of government spending - once you remove that component the growth rate is 4.2% on the new series. Why remove the government spending? Because the government has already spent 92% of its annual allocation. If it continues spending like this, the deficit will be screwed. Residual effects of Chidambram's good moves towards the end of UPA-II and low oil prices kept things afloat till now, but as the Sanghi cowshed's policies are gaining more prominence disaster is in the making. Modi should prostrate at Sardarji's feet and beg him to revive the economy at this point. It is clear running the country's economy is slightly more complicated than creating gowshaalas and drinking cow p!ss.