China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

[zen]

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been in news lately. Many in Pak see it as a boon. But the project has the hallmarks of how some developed countries swindle developing countries. Based on what I understand (correct me if I am wrong), the following is supposed to happen: 

 

• The project is portrayed as the next big thing since sliced bread for Pak
• The project would cost a lot of $$$ which Pak cannot afford 
• Loans will be provided to Pak to help it to accomplish the project
• Loans will be given at astronomically high interest rates 
• Pakistan will probably never see most of the funds as the funds will go directly to Chinese companies
• Chinese companies will work on the project 

 

The result for China:

• Friend China will earn huge profits from the project
• Many outdated technologies such as coal power plants would be sold at a premium to Pak 
• Chinese companies will use the infrastructure to ship its products to ME and Europe 

 

The result for Pak:

• Would be paying huge interest rates - anywhere up to 33% annually depending up on the over priced projects 
• Old technology such as coal power plants will pollute the environment 
• Some Pakistanis will become rich for helping China make more money and selling this idea to fellow Pakistanis 
• Because of the huge debt that Pak cannot repay, China will eventually become the official master of Pakistan 

 

[zen]

The process has started: 

 

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1096762/cpec-eastern-alignment-pakistan-china-ink-agreements-worth-4-2b/ 

 

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1096262/chinas-aiib-to-co-finance-first-project-with-adb-in-pakistan/ 

 

 

Quote

As per the contracts, China would provide a concessionary loan of $1.3 billion for the 120-kilometre long Thakot-Havelian section of Karakoram Highyway-II (KKH-II) and $2.9 billion for the 392-kilometre Multan-Sukkur section of the Lahore-Karachi motorway.

 

A total of $4.2B will go to Chinese companies for building just 512 kms in Pak!!

 

 

Edited July 26, 2016 by rett

[zen]

Interestingly, Beijing is shutting down coal power plants in China but building them in Pak

 

PS

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/beijing-to-close-all-major-coal-power-plants-to-curb-pollution

 

^ China to shut down coal plants in China

 

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1056469/pakistan-china-to-build-350mw-coal-power-plant-in-karachi/

 

^ China to build coal plants in Pak 

Edited July 26, 2016 by rett

[velu]

I dont know the economics of this economic Corridor , but everyone knows water transport is far more cheaper than transporting things the road.

Probably china wants to hedge its transport route.

 

But i am sure this will benefit china.

China needs its infrastructure  and construction activity should keep on running smoothly to offset slowdown in manufacturing.

 

Anyway this is the heights of stupidity/innocence from parosis.

China needs this more than them and they should have asked for a better deal.

Basically china needs this to keep its economy running. Parosis cant afford this , so now china will give loan at lower interest.

And who is the one building this route ? Its our parosis master china.

[Adi_91]

Exchange benefit for China for having stood with Pakistan over India's bid to enter the NSG. Shameful.

[zen]

To state it in a plain way - China is using Pak to funnel the majority of $46B back to itself. The debt would be Pak's and China will make $$$. Some Pakistanis would be given huge kickbacks to approve the over-priced projects many of which could be using out-dated technology. 

 

To get the kick backs, these Pakistanis would have market CPEC as a game changer to the general Pakistani public. A few window dressing projects would be done as well to show that CPEC will benefit Pak. Ind is "jealous" tagline will gain further approval for the project. 

 

At some point, the debt will become unmanageable and friend China would make its move to colonize Pakistan. Gawadar, if I am not wrong, is supposed to be turned in to Chinese naval base at some point. 

 

If Pak becomes unstable, Chinese with money already in their banks would dump CPEC citing security reasons but Pak will still be obliged to pay back the loans to its international creditors. 

 

Without the participation of countries such as Ind, CPEC will mainly be used as one of the routes to export Chinese goods mainly to Pak. Since Pak is seen as unstable, only basic low value products could be transported through this route. Since China manufactures most of the things, imports may not be too high apart from commodities coming in from Africa and ME. But it could be viable to ship the commodities directly to China via the sea. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2016 by rett

[vayuu1]

Boon for Pakistan and curse for India. Likewise, Chabbar port is boon for India, curse for Pakistan. It is competition. Naturally, the reaction is healthy for the competing with each other.

Badi Badi baate,vada paav khaate, oh bhai, IT tumhari zero, manufacturing tumhari zero, production tumhari zero, services tumhari zero, to cpec kya gh..anta karega, what can Pakistan contribute right now heck even after a decade, to pehle apni kamiya dur karo

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[G_B_]

I think more than money the Chinese need a land route to their oil so that they can better protect supplies.

ATM Chinese supplies of oil come directly via Russia and from middle east all the way around the strait of Malacca..

I also don't think high repayment rates are an issue. Pakistan will just default. I think even China knows it will be a write off

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[Prashant cricketer]

I wish our establishment ever realized that our biggest enemy today is China not Pakistan.

 

China  has  done everything possible to undermine and harm us historically. Always stabbed us in the back while our naive foolish establishment has always never devised ways of dealing with this snake. 

 

Their recent move to block us from NSG membership at the behest of Pak, use their UN veto power to block declaring Masood Azhar as global terrorist again at the behest of Pak and recent grab of South China against an international tribunal ruling all point to a rogue basterdized country on drunk on new found power.

 

I think the Chinese elite do fear the inevitable rise of India displacing them in all aspects maybe in 1.5 generations. We are at a cusp of reaping massive demographic dividends while their manufacture/export model of growth is on a terminal decline as will their working age population. 

 

They will do whatever the can to provoke a confrontation and test our resolve. The constant border incursions are all part of that game. 

Negotiating is futile, their stand will always be  what's ours is ours, what's yours is what is up for grabs/ settlement.

 

They only understand and respect force and raw power and Inspite having a roughly  3: 1 overall advantage in  military hardware and numbers currently we have plenty of deterrents and options to give them a bloody nose.

 

The  best and most economical option is building a monstrous pile of missiles.We have already mastered the use of Agni 3 and 4 which can cover all of china from Orissa's wheeler island , our east coast and andaman and nicobar islands. We should be looking to have atleast 5000 operationally ready missiles with warheads that can all simultaneously attack China within minutes in the next 2 years.

The thing to understand is we dont have to match them weapon for weapon but beat them in an asymmetrical game, the one Pakistan has been playing with us.

 

Our military advantage over Pakistan is way more than China's over us, yet we seem to get suckered as this risk averse soft state by both. 

With Pakistan the fear always is that they live on foreign dole they have nothing to lose whereas we have everything to lose. The same logic can be applied as a deterrent vs China.

 

China has enormous economic assets along their southern to eastern coastal prosperous export belts from Shenzhen to Shanghai. 

 

These assets are very vulnerable missile attacks. Unless China knows that we have ceased to be risk averse and are prepared to take them down with us, they will continue provoking us. It is all because both China and Pak understand, we our leadership does not have a strong willpower.

 

Unless China is made to realise that we are prepared to set them back by 100 years, if they wish provoke us and indulge in land grab in Arunachal pradesh, they will continue to provoke us.

 

It is about posturing and attitude. Our establishment needs to understand that and be far more aggressive towards China especially when they have no true friends. I bet you US and even Jap will back us to the hilt in our approach .

 

I was expecting alot from Modi, but he has been a huge let down.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Nova

[zen]

Ind needs to put pressure on China at international level while continuing to strengthen its economy and defense forces. Some of the areas where Ind need to take China on:

 

• NPT and NSG -  If I am not wrong, China had given Pak some nuclear reactors before 2003 or 2004. After it signed NPT and joined NSG, it further gave Pak additional reactors mischievously citing that this was a part of its agreement. However, this is a violation of NPT/NSG so Ind needs to try to get China's voting rights in questions based on this. Someone who has read more on this issue can comment
• Tibet - Ind needs to revise its position on Tibet. There are on going human rights violations in that territory which must be addressed 
• South China Sea issue - Again Ind needs to stand against the Chinese position 

 

While doing the above, Ind needs to

• strengthen its relationship with US, Japan, ME, Russia, and rest of Europe 
• play an active role in safe guarding the Indian Ocean
• develop strategic striking capabilities on key Chinese targets 
• install a capable anti-missile and anti-aircraft system around its borders
• stall CPEC for it passes through POK, a territory which is part of Kashmir 

 

[Prashant cricketer]

The moot point is - there has to be ZERO TOLERANCE on border incursion by

Chinese troops, if the LAC is not clear, how come there are no incursions by our soldiers into their side ? Every time their troops intrude their foreign spokesperson says the India China border is peaceful. How peaceful would it be should our troops routinely enter their side ?

 

 

We should have a ruthless policy of outnumbering and surrounding them because we have a huge advantage terrain wise to dispense troops quickly.

 

i know currently we are building enormous capacity to counter them for the past few months- but we need to make them pay a price everytime there is an incursion because they think they can do it at will.

 

i am highly upset why our current so called righ wing establishment is  not very stern on border incursions.

 

Also, Vietnam is their fiercest and closest enemy. VIetnamese gave China a bloody nose in 1979 killing over 20000 Chinese troops in a month of war. They are a battle hardened tough nation and we should arm them with the best tech available to us.

 

Vietnam is our very close friend and even support us having missile installations on their territory directed against China, the common adversary.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Prashant cricketer

[Prashant cricketer]

3 minutes ago, Finer said:

Pakistan-China is here to stay. Just learn to accept the reality. It makes sense to work together with them than to oppose them for egotistical reason. Future belongs to Asia which means us; India-Pakistan-China. So take advantage of it instead of fighting with each other.

 

After WW2, enemy became partners overnight for the sake of economical reasons. Similarity to why all of them need to work together for the sake of economical reasons.

 

Hey brother, you guys are so sensitive towards your Muslim ummah especially in Kashmir, how come Pak turns a blind eye to China's atrocity and murder in Xinjiang. They apparently have banned Muslims growing beards, Quran too is banned and so have normal Muslim practices.

have you abandoned your love for the ummah for your Chinese masters ?

[zen]

1 hour ago, Finer said:

They didn't think the military operation against TTP would succeed, but they were wrong. That should give you some clue for how game-changer CPEC can be for Pakistan which means bad news for its competitor.

 

Who benefits from CPEC has been outlined in this thread. China is developing business interests in other areas as well a part of its so called string of pearls strategy:

 

 

Not surprisingly, only Pak is dramatizing the event even though it is in fact paying to help China benefit

 

 

Now, if by competitor if you mean Ind, note that GDP of Maharashtra is $250B. While the GDP of Pak is $232B .... If you are refering to Ind's project in Chabbhar. Note that Ind had to develop it because it did not get a viable route to AFG through Pak. Additionally, Chabbar could serve as a route for Ind's trade through St. Petersberg

 

 

 

Ind does not have concerns with CPEC because it sees Pak as a competitor, but because CPEC:

• passes through POK, a territory of Kashmir
• allows China to dock its naval fleets at Gawadar which is leased to China
• uses Baluchistan, which is seen to be illegally occupied by Pak 

 

Now if Pak-China had invested to develop say Karachi's port and not used POK as a route, it would not have mattered much to Ind

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2016 by rett

[randomGuy]

3 hours ago, Finer said:

Pakistan-China is here to stay. Just learn to accept the reality. It makes sense to work together with them than to oppose them for egotistical reason. Future belongs to Asia which means us; India-Pakistan-China. So take advantage of it instead of fighting with each other.

 

After WW2, enemy became partners overnight for the sake of economical reasons. Similarity to why all of them need to work together for the sake of economical reasons.

The thing is that China is using u(pak) against India, somewhat like it is using north Korea against USA.

 

Otherwise why would we be thinking abt an economically insignificant neighbour that's Pakistan. Only one reason - terrorism.

 

Pakistan may not realise China's thinking and continue to work against India. It harms india n China is happy . But in process, Pakistan is harming itself a lot more. This is a sad reality of India n Pakistan.

Edited August 1, 2016 by randomGuy

[Malcolm Merlyn]

After the SCS verdict there will be enough countries supported by US NATO Japan South Korea to give China headache in that region.US has played its oldest ans most successful card againist China by starting territorial disputes between China and its neighbours and then supporting the anti China side.

Expect huge amount of arms and money to flow in the SCS area.

India must continue with its policy of keeping equal distance from all.

[zen]

5 minutes ago, Finer said:

Like i said, reality is unheard to you. Again, i will leave that to you to your imaginary world [wikipedia].

I don't think Pak has the ability discuss this issue. I don't know if you got a chance to see it but I have added a couple of videos to my post as well .... So what part of it is imaginary? 

 

(looking to see what excuse you would make  or would it be blamed on Ind wanting to create its hegemony) 

[Prashant cricketer]

1 minute ago, Malcolm Merlyn said:

After the SCS verdict there will be enough countries supported by US NATO Japan South Korea to give China headache in that region.US has played its oldest ans most successful card againist China by starting territorial disputes between China and its neighbours and then supporting the anti China side.

Expect huge amount of arms and money to flow in the SCS area.

India must continue with its policy of keeping equal distance from all.

 

Boss what are you talking about ???? How has US started the dispute ?? China is claiming the entire South China sea, even parts that are far from its shores and much closer to Philipines, Vietnam. By that regard can India claim most or all of Indian ocean ?

 

[zen]

 

Who makes such ^maps?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcolm Merlyn]

 

Boss what are you talking about ???? How has US started the dispute ?? China is claiming the entire South China sea, even parts that are far from its shores and much closer to Philipines, Vietnam. By that regard can India claim most or all of Indian ocean ?

 

I know what i am talking about thank you.

The SCS dispute is age old but Philipines approached the tribunal only in 2013 as it was assured by US NATO of all military help.In case you dont know Philippines has a treaty with US by virtue of which US is bound to help philipines in case of a war.

US weapons are flowing to Indonesia and Malaysia.Infact India has now stepped up defence supplies to Malaysia.

China is going to face enough headaches in SCS.Gwadar is going to be least of their issues.

[Prashant cricketer]

5 minutes ago, Malcolm Merlyn said:

I know what i am talking about thank you.

The SCS dispute is age old but Philipines approached the tribunal only in 2013 as it was assured by US NATO of all military help.In case you dont know Philippines has a treaty with US by virtue of which US is bound to help philipines in case of a war.

US weapons are flowing to Indonesia and Malaysia.Infact India has now stepped up defence supplies to Malaysia.

China is going to face enough headaches in SCS.Gwadar is going to be least of their issues.

 

 If so why did Philippines shut down the Nato bases on its soil for non payment of stationing fees ?

 

And also after the ruling, Philippines sent patrol outside to the area China claims and they were driven out by Chinese coastal guards. Why did US NATO not intervene ? Are you suggesting they reneged on their word ?