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Real McCoy

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Sharing China's sex ratio at birth. Normally it is 105 males born to every 100 females....maybe nature has this ratio because more males die between age 15-25 than females due to recklessness/accidents due to testosterone....China had it as high as 118....which means 13 more than 105 per 100 females born....signs of very huge social distress as atleast 13 males are not gonna find brides per 118 males...(muloghanto made the useless point that they are importing girls from Philippines, Vietnam etc, ignore that point coz imported number of girls would be relatively small)

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On August 5, 2019, the People's Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference rate below 7 per dollar for the first time in over a decade. This, in response to new tariffs of 10% on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports imposed by the Trump administration, set to go into effect September 1st, 2019. Global markets sold off on the move, including in the U.S. where the DJIA lost 2.9% in its worst day of 2019 to date.

 

It is just the latest salvo in the U.S. China trade war, but certainly not the first time China has devalued its currency.

 

Key Takeaways

  • After a decade of a steady appreciation against the US dollar, investors had become accustomed to the stability and growing strength of the yuan.
  • China’s President Xi Jinping had pledged the government’s commitment to reform China’s economy in a more market-oriented direction since he first took office in March 2013.
  • Despite the IMF response, many doubted China’s commitment to free-market values arguing that the new exchange rate policy was still akin to a “managed float."
Yuan to Dollar Since 1985
Yuan: Dollar Historical Chart.

The U.S. Treasury Department officially named China a currency manipulator on August 5th, 2019. It was the first time the U.S. had done so since 1984. While mostly a symbolic move, the naming opens the door for the Trump administration to consult with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate any unfair advantage China's currency moves have given the country.

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/chinese-devaluation-yuan/

 

Trmup has shown more balls than the previous presidents

 

 

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On 8/31/2019 at 7:14 AM, Real McCoy said:

That's because they are the numero uno when it comes to innovation, be it on defense or information technology. All China, India and other countries can do is do outsourcing work on the cheap. At least, China is better on that front. The only advantage we have over China is our knowledge of English. If we were colonized by the French or the Spanish, we would have fvcked our IT and call center opportunities too. I see Indians puff up their chest on youtube and FB about how Indians are smart but once some American points out the garbage filled roads or lack of toilet facilities, they shut up or get enraged

That is their relationship with any country though, even countries that innovate and are wealthy like Japan, Germany, Canada. 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/toppartners.html

Year-to-Date Total Trade

Rank Country Exports Imports Total Trade Percent of Total Trade
--- Total, All Countries 824.1 1,235.8 2,059.9 100.0%
--- Total, Top 15 Countries 580.9 965.0 1,545.9 75.1%
1 Mexico 129.3 179.6 308.9 15.0%
2 Canada 148.6 158.1 306.7 14.9%
3 China 52.0 219.0 271.0 13.2%
4 Japan 36.8 72.9 109.7 5.3%
5 Germany 30.4 62.3 92.6 4.5%
6 Korea, South 28.3 39.2 67.5 3.3%
7 United Kingdom 34.1 31.0 65.1 3.2%
8 France 19.4 29.7 49.1 2.4%
9 India 18.4 29.5 47.8 2.3%
10 Taiwan 15.3 26.0 41.4 2.0%
11 Italy 11.9 28.1 40.1 1.9%
12 Netherlands 26.1 13.7 39.8 1.9%
13 Brazil 20.8 15.5 36.3 1.8%
14 Vietnam 5.1 30.4 35.5 1.7%
15 Ireland 4.4 29.9 34.3

1.7%

 

 

 

 Almost every major country has a huge trade surplus with the US. The US can put similar tariffs that they put on China on any of them and cripple their economies. 

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https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/middle-east/2019/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

China and Iran flesh out strategic partnership

Staggered 25-year deal could mark seismic shift in the global hydrocarbons sector

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Chinese presence

Among other benefits, Chinese companies will be given the first refusal to bid on any new, stalled or uncompleted oil and gasfield developments. Chinese firms will also have first refusal on opportunities to become involved with any and all petchems projects in Iran, including the provision of technology, systems, process ingredients and personnel required to complete such projects.

"This will include up to 5,000 Chinese security personnel on the ground in Iran to protect Chinese projects, and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas and petchems supply from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf," says the Iranian source.

"China will also be able to buy any and all oil, gas and petchems products at a minimum guaranteed discount of 12pc to the six-month rolling mean price of comparable benchmark products, plus another 6pc to 8pc of that metric for risk-adjusted compensation."

Under the terms of the new agreement, Petroleum Economist understands, China will be granted the right to delay payment for Iranian production up to two years. China will also be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) states, in addition to using renminbi should the need arise—meaning that no US dollars will be involved in these commodity transaction payments from China to Iran.

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Benefits for Iran

The Iranians expect three key positives from the 25-year deal, according to the source. The first flows from China being one of just five countries to hold permanent member status on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Russia, tangentially included in the new deal, also holds a seat, alongside the US, the UK and France.

"In order to circumvent any further ramping up of sanctions—and over time encourage the US to come back to the negotiating table—Iran now has two out of five UNSC votes on its side. The fact that [Iran foreign minister Mohammad] Zarif showed up unexpectedly at the G7 summit in August at the invitation of France may imply it has another permanent member on side," he adds.

A second Iranian positive is that the deal will allow it to finally expedite increases in oil and gas production from three of its key fields. China has agreed to up the pace on its development of one of Iran's flagship gas field project, Phase 11 of the giant South Pars gas field (SP11). China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), one of China's 'big three' producers, added to its 30pc holding in the field when it took over Total's 50.1pc stake, following the French major's withdrawal in response to US sanctions. CNPC had since made little progress developing SP11—a 30pc+ discount to the global market price on potential condensate and LNG exports could change that.

 

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On 9/4/2019 at 8:28 AM, Tibarn said:

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/middle-east/2019/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

China and Iran flesh out strategic partnership

Staggered 25-year deal could mark seismic shift in the global hydrocarbons sector

 

Is this China's way of getting back at Trump? 

 

China's geopolitical influence is increasing day by day.. Truly a global superpower 

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13 hours ago, diga said:

Is this China's way of getting back at Trump? 

 

China's geopolitical influence is increasing day by day.. Truly a global superpower 

China is a great power, but not a superpower, IMO, they have too many problems and aren't at the level of the US.

 

Trump moreso forced the Iranians into this move. The US+NATO, Israel, and the Saudis are all after Iran, and with the scrapping of the Iran-deal by Trump, Iran needed to find some security/ally. Only Russia and China have the UNSC veto, but Russia doesn't need Iran's oil. China benefits as they get the oil and get to make investments in Iran. Iran gets a UNSC veto defense from UN sanctions (at least ideally for them).     

 

If Trump wins a 2nd term, there may be even more tariffs on China, which will harm them severely. 

Edited by Tibarn
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