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Sweden says its no-lockdown strategy proving effective against coronavirus

randomGuy

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randomGuy Mentor

randomGuy

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 @kosingh @MechEng

NY state says 14% have antibodies (wait for German, swedish , British results) I would say several would be in process of getting antibodies right now in NY as you would see in results of subsequent days.

 

But 14% gives fatality rate of 0.5%.

NY has 20% population above 60, India 10% .... 85% fatality in 60+ group in NY..it is easier to protect 10% in a herd than 20%

 

 

So make 0.5% => 0.25% for India

Say 70% for herd immunity, so, 0.25*0.7= 0.175%

 

Now take the effect of warm weather. How many times more people die of pneumonia in winters than in summers. For ex. If It's 4 times, divide by 4=> 0.175/4 = 0.044%. low enough and plausible?

 

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Clarke Mentor

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Herd Immunity sounded like an excuse for 'let's do nothing' especially when it didn't involve vaccination & comes from the likes of Boris Johnson. 

 

The race for the vaccine is on and top corporations & universities are already attempting human trials, success here could actually help build immunity.

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MechEng Proficient

MechEng

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1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

 @kosingh @MechEng

NY state says 14% have antibodies (wait for German, swedish , British results) I would say several would be in process of getting antibodies right now in NY as you would see in results of subsequent days.

 

But 14% gives fatality rate of 0.5%.

NY has 20% population above 60, India 10% .... 85% fatality in 60+ group in NY..it is easier to protect 10% in a herd than 20%

 

 

So make 0.5% => 0.25% for India

Say 70% for herd immunity, so, 0.25*0.7= 0.175%

 

Now take the effect of warm weather. How many times more people die of pneumonia in winters than in summers. For ex. If It's 4 times, divide by 4=> 0.175/4 = 0.044%. low enough and plausible?

 

The biggest assumption you're making is that the chances of virus harming young population like us is very low and will remain to be. I know cases like a 40 year old bodybuilder in Miami, an Iranian woman football player and a poor 17 year old boy in California without insurance dying of this virus. 

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rising Rookie

rising

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1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

 @kosingh @MechEng

NY state says 14% have antibodies (wait for German, swedish , British results) I would say several would be in process of getting antibodies right now in NY as you would see in results of subsequent days.

 

But 14% gives fatality rate of 0.5%.

NY has 20% population above 60, India 10% .... 85% fatality in 60+ group in NY..it is easier to protect 10% in a herd than 20%

 

 

So make 0.5% => 0.25% for India

Say 70% for herd immunity, so, 0.25*0.7= 0.175%

 

Now take the effect of warm weather. How many times more people die of pneumonia in winters than in summers. For ex. If It's 4 times, divide by 4=> 0.175/4 = 0.044%. low enough and plausible?

 

This all great until your health care gets overwhelmed and then not only more people will die of COVID 19  but other disease as well not getting treatment as health care can't cope 

Many of the countries which are overwhelmed by COVID19 are under reporting cases and death  because they don't time examine dead if the died of COVID19 if the test was not before their death 

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randomGuy Mentor

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Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC, “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable.” He added that sampling and modeling data showed 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the coronavirus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”

 

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randomGuy Mentor

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One of Norway's most eminent epidemiologists has questioned Norway's decision to impose a heavy lockdown, arguing that the country might have been better adopting a strategy closer to that of Sweden.

 

 

"There is a weakness in the strategy," Eiliv Lund, emeritus professor at the University of Tromsø, told the VG newspaper. "If we had done what the Swedes have done, we would have had a higher infection rate, and thus a higher immunity." 
 
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health on Tuesday said in a briefing note that its research indicated that only 1% of Norwegians had been infected with coronavirus, underlining the impressive success of the country's measures in reducing the rate of infection. 
 
But Lund, who is renowned for his research into cancer in women, argued this was a problem. 
 
"The government had a lot of faith in this hard line of  'knocking down' the virus," he told the newspaper. "It has been believed that if we can lock down for long enough it would disappear, but we cannot prevent it from coming in from the outside. 
 
"Then you have to wait for a vaccine or a drug treatment, but if this doesn't come, it will be very costly for society. We are pushing the problem out in front of us." 
 
 
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mishra Mentor

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3 hours ago, randomGuy said:

https://www.news18.com/news/world/summer-like-conditions-temperature-above-35-degrees-can-curb-covid-19-transmission-says-us-official-2590253.html

Yes,if we have to live with corona for another year without treatment, then lets face it in Warm months of May June July August. 4 month should be enough for it to reach most of population

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Despite India's warm temperatures in comparison with many parts of the world, people forget that the 1918 Spanish Flu killed 12-17 million Indians. This was 5% of India's population. The Spanish Flu devastated India much more than other colder countries. 

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