rangeelaraja Posted April 22, 2022 Author Posted April 22, 2022 India will cross $1 trillion dollars exports within the next 4 years. Reasons: 1) China has lot the cost advantage, companies also want to diversify away from China. India will benefit from it partially sharing the spoils with Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh 2) I see alot of online- marketplace businesses flourishing over the internet where Indian service providers get paid by foreign customers for services especially in the field of education, taxation, accounting and other outsourced activities. I am most optimistic about this industry. 3) Indian indigenous automobile firms like Mahindra, TATA are getting close to international standard and growing in exports. 4) Productivity/Yield in farming will rise steadily. ravishingravi and Under_Score 1 1
jf1gp_1 Posted April 23, 2022 Posted April 23, 2022 1 hour ago, rangeelaraja said: India will cross $1 trillion dollars exports within the next 4 years. Reasons: 1) China has lot the cost advantage, companies also want to diversify away from China. India will benefit from it partially sharing the spoils with Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh 2) I see alot of online- marketplace businesses flourishing over the internet where Indian service providers get paid by foreign customers for services especially in the field of education, taxation, accounting and other outsourced activities. I am most optimistic about this industry. 3) Indian indigenous automobile firms like Mahindra, TATA are getting close to international standard and growing in exports. 4) Productivity/Yield in farming will rise steadily. The way salaries and fuel has rocketed in last 12 months both material and service cost have gone up and how long will we have that advantage
kepler37b Posted April 23, 2022 Posted April 23, 2022 One has to see what kind of things we are exporting. Is it the water guzzling farm products/ environment destroying chemical products/ Pharma products?
kepler37b Posted April 23, 2022 Posted April 23, 2022 16 hours ago, jf1gp_1 said: The way salaries and fuel has rocketed in last 12 months both material and service cost have gone up and how long will we have that advantage India is a unique country where mediocre quality is ultra expensive due to exorbitant taxation and extreme cartelization. ravishingravi 1
ravishingravi Posted April 24, 2022 Posted April 24, 2022 I do believe that 10-12 trillion $ GDP by 2030 is fairly realistic with 20% plus coming from exports.
G_B_ Posted April 24, 2022 Posted April 24, 2022 I think India will be around $6 trillion by 2030. Vijy and dial_100 2
dial_100 Posted April 24, 2022 Posted April 24, 2022 10 hours ago, ravishingravi said: I do believe that 10-12 trillion $ GDP by 2030 is fairly realistic with 20% plus coming from exports. 15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable. I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally.
rangeelaraja Posted April 24, 2022 Author Posted April 24, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, dial_100 said: 15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable. I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally. You are mixing nominal growth with real growth. 10 -11 % nominal growth for India is par for course with about 4-5 % inflation. If INR does not depreciate much against the USD.... apply rule of 72 to see when doubling happens..... 72/10. In 7 years nominal GDP should double for India at the bare minimum. Which means we get to about $ 7T in 2029 and $ 7.5T in 2030. The key is a strong INR. If there is massive demand to invest in India over the next few years....INR could appreciate against the USD and we could see much higher GDP figures. Edited April 24, 2022 by rangeelaraja Under_Score and ravishingravi 1 1
ravishingravi Posted April 24, 2022 Posted April 24, 2022 2 hours ago, dial_100 said: 15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable. I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally. Yeah I am looking at nominal. CAGR of 12-15% isn’t unrealistic.
Vijy Posted April 25, 2022 Posted April 25, 2022 moving toward this threshold and crossing it is a big milestone
G_B_ Posted April 25, 2022 Posted April 25, 2022 14 hours ago, rangeelaraja said: You are mixing nominal growth with real growth. 10 -11 % nominal growth for India is par for course with about 4-5 % inflation. If INR does not depreciate much against the USD.... apply rule of 72 to see when doubling happens..... 72/10. In 7 years nominal GDP should double for India at the bare minimum. Which means we get to about $ 7T in 2029 and $ 7.5T in 2030. The key is a strong INR. If there is massive demand to invest in India over the next few years....INR could appreciate against the USD and we could see much higher GDP figures. Too strong an inr we will lose our competition edge in exports
ravishingravi Posted April 25, 2022 Posted April 25, 2022 1 hour ago, G_B_ said: Too strong an inr we will lose our competition edge in exports Conventional thinking would suggest you are right. Look at the Rupee and exports over last 2-3 years. It defies conventional thought process. The Rupee should ideally depreciate by 3-5% every year. It is pretty much stable even with RBI preventing any appreciation. What does that tell you ? And in this scenario, India has achieved record exports. If Covid has taught us anything, it is that pricing might be one factor and not the only factor in the future inter country trade.
G_B_ Posted April 25, 2022 Posted April 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: Conventional thinking would suggest you are right. Look at the Rupee and exports over last 2-3 years. It defies conventional thought process. The Rupee should ideally depreciate by 3-5% every year. It is pretty much stable even with RBI preventing any appreciation. What does that tell you ? And in this scenario, India has achieved record exports. If Covid has taught us anything, it is that pricing might be one factor and not the only factor in the future inter country trade. I generally agree that there are several components to boosting exports. The push towards exports of non primary goods needs to be appreciated even through primary agri goods have been a star in this export drive. However, I feel politically BJP will want to generate as many jobs as possible from this point and ensure that a competitive advantage is maintained. ravishingravi 1
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