Elections 23-24 NDA vs I.N.D.I.A (updated) -Poll Added

[cowboysfan]

3 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

I have met and a few late Dad’s friends were like this. One guy was a Sonia bhakt, wanted her to be PM in 2004. Old school Nehruvians were so loyal to Congress, such was the PR work in the media (just like how Modi gets now) with 0 opposition in media. Listen to this gentleman from Bangalore south (hope it’s not your dad)

 

 

nope.He didnt even attempt to talk us out of voting for BJP.I would have voted for Soumya if this was a Assembly election but i am truly troubled with this radical Left turn of Conress.essentially the BJP is running a socialist platform of Congress and Congress has veered way too Left for me.

[Mariyam]

9 hours ago, rish said:

I meant to say that they do not seem to be having any reason other than samvidhan ko bachana hai..very furtive answers....I have seen modi voters proudly say Modi.

 

Must the give answers/reasons though?

People voting for Ra Ga may feel that he is the best of their bad options. And have nothing to feel proud about his candidature etc.

[Mariyam]

9 hours ago, AuxiliA said:

 

Modi through his various schemes for the poor( housing, LPG, free ration,etc), has actually done more for the poor Muslims of India than any other PM in history. Muslims actively take benefits from the Modi govt.

 

It's mostly the influential Ashrafi class of Muslims and Mullahs that hates Modi with passion because he doesn't appease them like the sikular parties do and is a proud Hindu. Poor Muslims, even if they vote against Modi, are still ok with him.

 

Your observations are very reductive.

People with means generally tend to be pro establishment or change their political affiliations to maintain status quo.

 

[coffee_rules]

20 minutes ago, cowboysfan said:

nope.He didnt even attempt to talk us out of voting for BJP.I would have voted for Soumya if this was a Assembly election but i am truly troubled with this radical Left turn of Conress.essentially the BJP is running a socialist platform of Congress and Congress has veered way too Left for me.

Soumya lost the assembly this time in the meanest of margins, a few 100 votes or so. Tejaswi was instrumental in that. Now, she can get her revenge. But, being in Congress , her Muslim appeasement got exposed on SM by BJP IT Cell.  Tejaswi looked very good initially, but was reduced to being a Modi loudspeaker. He survived this time unlike Pratap Simha who talked too much to be out of contention. Politics is like walking on a thin red line, much like upper management in any company. If you play your cards right, you can manage to play the game. Most make Mgr/Director, and to get past that you need to play politics.

[AuxiliA]

7 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

Your observations are very reductive.

People with means generally tend to be pro establishment or change their political affiliations to maintain status quo.

 

 

Your observation is very theoretical. 

 

lt applies only to homogeneous populations, like European countries (& that too minus the migration). Not to a massive and highly diverse country like India. 

 

Identity politics is HUGE in India. 

 

 

[cowboysfan]

15 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Soumya lost the assembly this time in the meanest of margins, a few 100 votes or so. Tejaswi was instrumental in that. Now, she can get her revenge. But, being in Congress , her Muslim appeasement got exposed on SM by BJP IT Cell.  Tejaswi looked very good initially, but was reduced to being a Modi loudspeaker. He survived this time unlike Pratap Simha who talked too much to be out of contention. Politics is like walking on a thin red line, much like upper management in any company. If you play your cards right, you can manage to play the game. Most make Mgr/Director, and to get past that you need to play politics.

Soumya didnt have a chance tbh.The Caste politics is firmly against her in Bangalore South.Brahmins are a sizeable portion of the electorate.

[ravishingravi]

Interestingly prince has not yet announced his candidacy from his family seat in Amethi. Tells you all you need to know. 

[coffee_rules]

The most underrated story of the 24 Election is from Uttar Pradesh. Looks like a second day of a TOTAL Clean Sweep by Lotus! Opposition simply doesn't exist!

— Dr Praveen Patil (@5Forty3) April 26, 2024

[AuxiliA]

1 hour ago, coffee_rules said:

 

 

Akhilesh is dry on cash. Saving it for 2027 UP polls. Infact many opposition parties are dry and scared due to ED/CBI action. RJD too isn't spending much this time and saving it for 2025 Bihar polls. Same with Soren in Jharkhand. Even Mamta can't do too much gundagardi this time around.

 

Lot of Hindu voters of opposition parties votes for them only for cash, briyani or quaters. Very likely that many of the missing voters are the Hindu voters of opposition parties, especially in the North and East.

 

[cowboysfan]

I am sensing a wave for BJP in karnataka,lets see how the rest of the state votes but the voter turnout as been great compared to other states which has seen massive dropoffs,only bangalore has seen a slight drop in voting and i suspect outsiders again have taken a holiday instead of voting.I wonder why they even bother to register if they cant spend 30 minutes to go vote.

[gattaca]

2 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

I am sensing a wave for BJP in karnataka,lets see how the rest of the state votes but the voter turnout as been great compared to other states which has seen massive dropoffs,only bangalore has seen a slight drop in voting and i suspect outsiders again have taken a holiday instead of voting.I wonder why they even bother to register if they cant spend 30 minutes to go vote.

Bangalore voting percentage has been historically low 52 - 2004, 48-2008. We can’t point fingers to outsiders.

[rish]

So rahul gandhi won by 4 lakh votes in wayanad with a muslim population of 45%

 

By the same yardstick constituencies with hindu populations which have 70% populace should be having winning margins of 8 lakhs.

 

So who is more communal?

[ravishingravi]

I would say. Base case BJP should secure 10% higher seats. 5% higher voting %. 

[Lone Wolf]

Ground reports suggest that Aligarh went to india... 

Amroha is a close battle..  Anyone's game. 

Meerut BJP is struggling.. But may pull through if votes get divided.  Whose genius idea was to give Ticket to Arun Govil of all people?  Outsider card may work against him. 

[AuxiliA]

36 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Ground reports suggest that Aligarh went to india... 

Amroha is a close battle..  Anyone's game. 

Meerut BJP is struggling.. But may pull through if votes get divided.  Whose genius idea was to give Ticket to Arun Govil of all people?  Outsider card may work against him. 

 

Ground reports from where? Asatya Hindi channel?

 

Aligarh is probably the safest seat for BJP in West UP. Last time BJP alone had won Aligarh by a margin 2.3 lakh votes. That was when BSP, SP and RLD had fought together. This time BSP and SP aren't together and RLD is with BJP. Kuch bhi..

 

BJP won Meerut in 2019 by a wafer thin margin of 5k. But that also was when BSP/SP/RLD were together. BJP has edge here in 2024.

 

Only Amroha is a fight due to demographics. But here too BSP has fielded a strong Muslim candidate vs Cong's Danish Ali. M vote will split.

 

[cowboysfan]

3 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

I would say. Base case BJP should secure 10% higher seats. 5% higher voting %. 

my prediction is around 330 -335 for BJP with NDA getting 2/3 majority.I dont think they will cross 400 .

[Lone Wolf]

1 hour ago, AuxiliA said:

 

Ground reports from where? Asatya Hindi channel?

 

Aligarh is probably the safest seat for BJP in West UP. Last time BJP alone had won Aligarh by a margin 2.3 lakh votes. That was when BSP, SP and RLD had fought together. This time BSP and SP aren't together and RLD is with BJP. Kuch bhi..

 

BJP won Meerut in 2019 by a wafer thin margin of 5k. But that also was when BSP/SP/RLD were together. BJP has edge here in 2024.

 

Only Amroha is a fight due to demographics. But here too BSP has fielded a strong Muslim candidate vs Cong's Danish Ali. M vote will split.

 

Nah...  Gautam is facing strong anti incumbency this time..  His main Target ST/SC vote has shifted to BSP this time..  Which technically is still opposition. 

 

Meerut is a dogfight...  I don't think anyone has clear advantage there.  RLD factor is not a huge one over there.  2019 was a whole different atmosphere back then.  Nothing remotely close to it this time. 

Edited April 27 by Lone Wolf

[AuxiliA]

7 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Nah...  Gautam is facing strong anti incumbency this time..  His main Target ST/SC vote has shifted to BSP this time..  Which technically is still opposition. 

 

Meerut is a dogfight...  I don't think anyone has clear advantage there.  RLD factor is not a huge one over there.  2019 was a whole different atmosphere back then.  Nothing remotely close to it this time. 

 

 

It's Modi's election not some Gautam's. Anti-incumbency against local candidates always appears to be a lot larger than it actually is coz those dissenting do it loudly while the majority is silent. 

 

2019 was 'a whole different atmosphere' because the opposition in UP was highly charged up and fighting with all their might. Many people, even BJP ones, thought that BSP-SP combine might sweep UP. This time the opposition is virtually absent in UP. Infact Mayawati has strategically fielded many candidates to cut into INDI votes, which will benefit the BJP. 

 

RLD still has considerable influence on Jaat voters of western UP. It's a decent addon in some seats of west UP. 

 

[Lone Wolf]

37 minutes ago, AuxiliA said:

 

 

It's Modi's election not some Gautam's. Anti-incumbency against local candidates always appears to be a lot larger than it actually is coz those dissenting do it loudly while the majority is silent. 

 

 

This is Where ground reality is different...  Wait for the exit polls.   Some ch**ye Congressi and Bjp troll accounts for sake of engagement are sending false info on SM. 

[AuxiliA]

23 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

This is Where ground reality is different...  Wait for the exit polls.   Some ch**ye Congressi and Bjp troll accounts for sake of engagement are sending false info on SM. 

 

 

Yeah we should all wait for the 4th of June. Even exit polls only show the direction not the magnitude.