Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)

[ravishingravi]

Can't make this up

 

 

[G_B_]

 

US economy grew strongly in third quarter, GDP report says

GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/23/us-economy-gdp-third-quarter

 

Have to say the US economy seems to be very resilient and not impacted to the degree I thought it would be. Assuming the figures are true, even with a "soft" job market the USA is doing extremely well compared to Europe. or even Canada. Even there if you look at the Maga base, unemployment is barely 4%. There are some sector issues in tech etc. But Black Americans, especially women seem to be bearing the brunt as diversity programs are eliminated. These women would never vote republican anyways. The unemployment rate among Asian Americans (Chinese Indians etc)  is sub 4%. The republicans 100% have an affordability problem just like the dems in the prior administration. But as a nation the impact of tariffs etc seems to be very muted.

 

 

It essentially supports my hypothesis that India and the USA can easily do without each other economically.

 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

25 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

US economy grew strongly in third quarter, GDP report says

GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/23/us-economy-gdp-third-quarter

 

Have to say the US economy seems to be very resilient and not impacted to the degree I thought it would be. Assuming the figures are true, even with a "soft" job market the USA is doing extremely well compared to Europe. or even Canada. Even there if you look at the Maga base, unemployment is barely 4%. There are some sector issues in tech etc. But Black Americans, especially women seem to be bearing the brunt as diversity programs are eliminated. These women would never vote republican anyways. The unemployment rate among Asian Americans (Chinese Indians etc)  is sub 4%. The republicans 100% have an affordability problem just like the dems in the prior administration. But as a nation the impact of tariffs etc seems to be very muted.

 

 

It essentially supports my hypothesis that India and the USA can easily do without each other economically.

 

 

 

 

About 40-50% of growth is from AI capex and data centres. Jobs data doesn't land with gdp growth. 

[G_B_]

4 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

About 40-50% of growth is from AI capex and data centres. Jobs data doesn't land with gdp growth. 

 

But jobs are not collapsing off a cliff either.

 

Unemployment is at below 5% and below the long run average. As the article states this is driven by robust consumer spending. 

 

Usa is most certainly not going to have a recession if this figure is true.

[kepler37b]

On 12/24/2025 at 2:37 PM, G_B_ said:

 

But jobs are not collapsing off a cliff either.

 

Unemployment is at below 5% and below the long run average. As the article states this is driven by robust consumer spending. 

 

Usa is most certainly not going to have a recession if this figure is true.

 

America is still the greatest country in the world.    

 

Still produces greatest science, art, military, engineering, philosophy and entertainment  

Edited December 25, 2025 by kepler37b

[G_B_]

They attract the best.

 

Look at spacex. Changed the game in matter of a decade.

[MK55]

When in comes to consumption, spending, breadth of financial products there’s just no comparison between the US vs anyone else. There should be no delusion on this.
Most EU economies would literally go into recession if US actually decides to have unfavorable trade policies (not just the tariff noise). Just look at Germany for example.

Canada especially is entirely dependent on US. 70% of Canadas exports are to USA and roughly 1/3rd of their GDP is exports - so basically a quarter of their GDP is contributed by US. If u run similar numbers on the other side, 1.5 % of US gdp is from Canada lol. That USMCA pact is their lifeline. 

 

Trump is right in leveraging the consumer but he’s just not doing it the right way. 
 

[MK55]

The correlation but bitcoin and Nasdaq was insane last couple of months. 
Most of the high frequency funds are using bitcoin momentum / flows as a risk on systematic factor. While some others just update both these flows for any risk on / risk off decisions causing that correlation.

But last couple of weeks, there has been an adjustment to these flows. So good signs as artificial inflated correlations can be bad for vol when they break out of nowhere.

Next year is going to interesting. Inflation (rate trajectory) and AI earnings will dominate the narrative. Tariffs is a non issue. Most of it is already passed (some more more may flow for a few months especially if sellers decide to pass more - highly doubt that)

 

Also the recent inflation numbers were over exaggerated due to faulty extrapolation on missing data. Theres a downward trend but not to the extent the recent print showed.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2025 by MK55

[G_B_]

2 hours ago, MK55 said:

When in comes to consumption, spending, breadth of financial products there’s just no comparison between the US vs anyone else. There should be no delusion on this.
Most EU economies would literally go into recession if US actually decides to have unfavorable trade policies (not just the tariff noise). Just look at Germany for example.

Canada especially is entirely dependent on US. 70% of Canadas exports are to USA and roughly 1/3rd of their GDP is exports - so basically a quarter of their GDP is contributed by US. If u run similar numbers on the other side, 1.5 % of US gdp is from Canada lol. That USMCA pact is their lifeline. 

 

Trump is right in leveraging the consumer but he’s just not doing it the right way. 
 

 

Listen while i also think usa is number 1, utimately the tarriffs trump has placed has not impacted russia india or china to the degree a lot of people anticipated. Canada is a small economy. We are worlds apart from the 90s and early 00s when the usa called the shots.

 

Ultimately the usa is 26% of nominal and 14% of ppp gdp. Both these figures have been in decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MK55]

7 hours ago, G_B_ said:

 

Listen while i also think usa is number 1, utimately the tarriffs trump has placed has not impacted russia india or china to the degree a lot of people anticipated. Canada is a small economy. We are worlds apart from the 90s and early 00s when the usa called the shots.

 

Ultimately the usa is 26% of nominal and 14% of ppp gdp. Both these figures have been in decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My comment was more on the lines of economic strength n consumptions patterns and the breadth of financial investment products that are available in the US - things like structured products, RMBS, derivatives trading etc.

Do u know what US constitutes as a percentage in total derivatives trading amount (exposure not market value)? If there was one economy that single handedly influences global market flows - it’s the US. Just look at how even something like the opinions of fed committee members about interest rates was impacting global markets. Also most hedging globally has some US underlying. It’s also a major liquidity anchor for risk transfer. 

And the US is not even interested in competing with India. It doesn’t care. Russian economy is already hopeless. But trade wise, yeah mostly it’s the manufacturing EU economies that would be impacted and off course Canada. Trade policies mainly only impact the neighboring countries. Thats where most of it happens. 

Edited December 26, 2025 by MK55

[G_B_]

7 hours ago, MK55 said:

My comment was more on the lines of economic strength n consumptions patterns and the breadth of financial investment products that are available in the US - things like structured products, RMBS, derivatives trading etc.

Do u know what US constitutes as a percentage in total derivatives trading amount (exposure not market value)? If there was one economy that single handedly influences global market flows - it’s the US. Just look at how even something like the opinions of fed committee members about interest rates was impacting global markets. Also most hedging globally has some US underlying. It’s also a major liquidity anchor for risk transfer. 

And the US is not even interested in competing with India. It doesn’t care. Russian economy is already hopeless. But trade wise, yeah mostly it’s the manufacturing EU economies that would be impacted and off course Canada. Trade policies mainly only impact the neighboring countries. Thats where most of it happens. 

 

I can tell you right now, indian markets will continue to be stable despite what happens in the usa based on DII purchases. They are rapidly growing. 

 

The russian economy is not dead by any means. It has held up extremely well in the face of sanctions. I would not use the word thiving, but its pretty robust.

 

Nobody said usa is competing with india. The point is the influence of usa in the world economy and trade is diminishing. 

 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

Traditional metrics such as GDP is not adding up anymore. We have similar problem in India. Metric doesn't correspond to reality on the ground. 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

 

[Lone Wolf]

 

[Lone Wolf]

Right time to invade Kangladesh as well  

 False flag karo, kuch bhi karo Top ji

 

[IndianRenegade]

Give the mfer a Nobel prize!

[Lone Wolf]

This will be over in a day or 2

[pkmmamks]

23 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Right time to invade Kangladesh as well  

 False flag karo, kuch bhi karo Top ji

 

Bhai aaj hi India Kanglu cricket tour announce hua hai 

[IndianRenegade]

14 minutes ago, pkmmamks said:

Bhai aaj hi India Kanglu cricket tour announce hua hai 

Yeah.. we aren’t invading anyone. We aren’t a superpower. When was the last time China went to war? 
 

Unfortunately,India should just continue to bide our time & work on its economy & ppl. The best we can do for Hindus outside India is asylum & diplomatic support. Attacking BD is a trap to create another enemy that we will need to deal for decades to come. 

[G_B_]

We need usa engaged in a war (like boots on ground).

 

Wont have bandwidth to see what is happening around the world.