Indigo deliberate collapse

[kepler37b]

18 minutes ago, MechEng said:

 

Optimize it's crew by overworking them?

 

All companies should follow Narayanmurthy ideals then. Make freshers work 70 hours and pay only 3.5 lpa. Max optimization.

Ironically that is how EVERY private sector company in india operates. Banking, IT, BPO you name it.  

 

These companies have to operate in high tax, high graft and low infrastructure environment. This is what you get.

[Lord]

Ministry and DGCA has been pretty lame in this episode. 

 

 

[bowl_out]

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

7 minutes ago, bowl_out said:

 

 

He said "Government yielded." 

 

Hearing that, and reading through the entire thread, it seems to me that IndiGo was counting on that to happen. They see themselves as "too big to fail" and have more leverage than the government.  

[Lord]

6 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

He said "Government yielded." 

 

Hearing that, and reading through the entire thread, it seems to me that IndiGo was counting on that to happen. They see themselves as "too big to fail" and have more leverage than the government.  

 

yes and thats pretty much what happened. Dangers of monopoly and duopoly

[bowl_out]

9 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

He said "Government yielded." 

 

Hearing that, and reading through the entire thread, it seems to me that IndiGo was counting on that to happen. They see themselves as "too big to fail" and have more leverage than the government.  

Yes. He says in another video. If you are pissed off at the cancellations and say No more Indigo, then who else? There is no alternative. Dangers of monopoly. Govt needs to invite new players and make regulatory processes easier 

[bowl_out]

10 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

He said "Government yielded." 

 

Hearing that, and reading through the entire thread, it seems to me that IndiGo was counting on that to happen. They see themselves as "too big to fail" and have more leverage than the government.  

The bigger take away for me is that the problem isn't going away. New deadline of Feb 2026 isn't going to work. One of these has to happen:

 

1. . DGCA needs to relax the rules for longer till Indigo hires new pilots

2. Indigo cuts routes and operates fewer flights to accommodate the new rules

3. Newer players get in the market. This will take at least 3-5 years.

[BacktoCricaddict]

5 minutes ago, bowl_out said:

invite new players

Seems like one of the hardest industries to run. Who would want to play in that field?  Maybe govt needs to strictly regulate pilot/passenger safety but get out of pricing. 

Edited December 8, 2025 by BacktoCricaddict

[zen]

43 minutes ago, bowl_out said:

 

What he is saying nicely is that Indian infrastructure does not support the GOI mandate as airlines cannot even hire pilots from competition as it involves pilots having to give a 12 month notice period. 
 

Therefore, if the pilot’s rest hours are increased by 33%, it would likely impact an airline’s ability to operate its planes by that much, so if Indigo operated 2100 (for simple math) flights per day, its operational capability can theoretically be reduced to 2/3 which is 1400 flights per day from 2100.

India just does not have the infrastructure to provide so many pilots at a short notice. Large carriers like Indigo, who operate on a lean business model, will suffer. There is nothing much they can do in the short term. 
 

This again points at the incompetency of the GOI which tries to ape the west without understanding its impact on India and Indian companies, along with the people. 
 

Currency change, ethanol, airlines, monitoring apps … and there is foolish population that buy it in the name of security, Pak can do this or that, etc. It is a viscous cycle that India is in.

 

Edited December 8, 2025 by zen

[Lord]

15 minutes ago, bowl_out said:

The bigger take away for me is that the problem isn't going away. New deadline of Feb 2026 isn't going to work. One of these has to happen:

 

1. . DGCA needs to relax the rules for longer till Indigo hires new pilots

2. Indigo cuts routes and operates fewer flights to accommodate the new rules

3. Newer players get in the market. This will take at least 3-5 years.

 

That is most feasible solution. DGCA should have enforced that

[BacktoCricaddict]

5 minutes ago, zen said:

as airlines cannot even hire pilots from competition as it involves pilots having to give  12 month notice period. 

That is the most ridiculous rule. What is the logic?

[zen]

1 hour ago, bowl_out said:

The bigger take away for me is that the problem isn't going away. New deadline of Feb 2026 isn't going to work. One of these has to happen:

 

1. . DGCA needs to relax the rules for longer till Indigo hires new pilots

2. Indigo cuts routes and operates fewer flights to accommodate the new rules

3. Newer players get in the market. This will take at least 3-5 years.

Only viable option is #1 in the near term.

 

You cannot expect an airline that has invested billions of dollars to improve its operational capacity to reduce it. Indigo would me making tons of payment towards leases. Reduced operations directly impacts its bottom line and business model, potentially leading to exiting the market. 
 

New players can only get into the market if margins allow. If Indigo cannot afford this, it became relatively difficult for new players as even finding pilots in suggest quantities is a headache. 
 

Edited December 8, 2025 by zen

[zen]

2 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

That is the most ridiculous rule. What is the logic?

anti poaching. 
 

when you read comments on this thread, it is shocking to see how people lack basic business sense. 
 

[BacktoCricaddict]

3 minutes ago, zen said:

anti poaching. 

If you don't want to someone to poach your employees, pay them well, treat them well and make it hard for them to leave. Why do you need govt making anti-poaching rules? 

 

Having said that - regulating safety of pilots and passengers is absolutely the govt's job. Otherwise airlines will cut corners endangering public. 

Edited December 8, 2025 by BacktoCricaddict

[zen]

Just now, BacktoCricaddict said:

If you don't want to someone to poach your employees, pay them well, treat them well and make it hard for them to leave. Why do you need govt making anti-poaching rules?

Those theoretical concepts don’t work in real world where an airline can go bankrupt in no time due to a variety of factors. 
 

In India, it is difficult to find pilots. The wage factor is going to be more or less standardized esp. in a highly competitive field like airline industry. Additional operational expenses are a curse for this industry. No smart airline is going to increase its operational expenses by paying more to pilots unless it plans to go bankrupt at some point in time.

 

 Airlines spend tons of dollars on training pilots - Boeing and Airbus systems. 
 

[bowl_out]

37 minutes ago, zen said:

What he is saying nicely is that Indian infrastructure does not support the GOI mandate as airlines cannot even hire pilots from competition as it involves pilots having to give a 12 month notice period. 

 

Therefore, if the pilot’s rest hours are increased by 33%, it would likely impact an airline’s ability to operate its planes by that much, so if Indigo operated 2100 (for simple math) flights per day, its operational capability can theoretically be reduced to 2/3 which is 1400 flights per day from 2100.

India just does not have the infrastructure to provide so many pilots at a short notice. Large carriers like Indigo, who operate on a lean business model, will suffer. There is nothing much they can do in the short term. 

 

Yeah, even though everyone squarely blames the airlines, DGCA should get a fair share of the blame. They are the sole authority that can issue pilot licenses. If they want to increase pilot rest hours by 33%, they should also do the math on how many new pilot licenses need to be issued / trainings need to be done to ensure airlines get an adequate supply of candidates to hire. It can't work with hard deadlines that suddenly get applied. It is a long-drawn process that needs periodic readiness checks before the final rule goes into play.

[zen]

How does India compare with the rest of the world?

International bodies like the ICAO do not prescribe specific limits to the number of hours or number of flights pilots can safely operate to avoid fatigue. Different countries have different regulations.

 

For example, the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) says pilots should get a minimum 48-hour break in any consecutive seven‑day period. Night duty is capped at nine to 10 hours. It does not state an explicit landing cap. In Australia, pilots can earn approximately 200,000 Australian dollars ($134,000) a year, and captains can earn up to 400,000 Australian dollars ($268,000) a year, according to the Melbourne-based Holmes Aviation Institute.

According to Canadian Aviation Regulations, pilots must get at least 36 consecutive hours off during any seven‑day period when they are operating from their normal home base. The night duty is limited to eight to 10 hours. There is no formal cap on night landings. In Canada, pilots can make between 38,000 Canadian dollars ($27,740) and 250,000 Canadian dollars ($182,500) a year, according to the Ontario-based institute, Flight Trainers.

 

The EASA sets the weekly rest to a minimum of 36 hours, which can be reduced to 24 hours with compensation. The average annual salaries for airline pilots across 17 European countries range from 32,299 euros ($35,000) in Romania to 113,672 euros ($122,776) in Switzerland as of 2025, according to the ERI Economic Research Institute.
 

In the United States, flight crew members get 30 consecutive hours free from all duty during a consecutive seven-day period of work. It caps the night duty to nine to 10 hours. There is no formal cap on night landings. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median pay for commercial pilots in 2024 was $198,100 per year.

Edited December 8, 2025 by zen

[zen]

So the increase of rest hours by 33% to 48 from 36 appears to have been cooked up by the pilot association of India. 
 

The new rules, which came into effect on November 1, asked airlines to:

• Increase pilots’ mandatory weekly rest period from 36 to 48 hours. A pilot’s personal leave request, however, cannot be included under the mandatory rest period.
• Cap pilots’ flying hours that continue into the night to 10 hours.
• Cap the weekly number of landings a pilot can make between midnight and early morning to two.
• Submit pilots’ fatigue reports every quarter to India’s aviation regulator – the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).

 

[MechEng]

6 hours ago, kepler37b said:

Ironically that is how EVERY private sector company in india operates. Banking, IT, BPO you name it.  

 

These companies have to operate in high tax, high graft and low infrastructure environment. This is what you get.

 

Buddy, I know CAs working for a giant who exploit loopholes in GST laws and find ways to avoid paying GST to the government. The lala mindset is still dominant.

[MechEng]

3 hours ago, zen said:

What he is saying nicely is that Indian infrastructure does not support the GOI mandate as airlines cannot even hire pilots from competition as it involves pilots having to give a 12 month notice period. 
 

Therefore, if the pilot’s rest hours are increased by 33%, it would likely impact an airline’s ability to operate its planes by that much, so if Indigo operated 2100 (for simple math) flights per day, its operational capability can theoretically be reduced to 2/3 which is 1400 flights per day from 2100.

India just does not have the infrastructure to provide so many pilots at a short notice. Large carriers like Indigo, who operate on a lean business model, will suffer. There is nothing much they can do in the short term. 
 

This again points at the incompetency of the GOI which tries to ape the west without understanding its impact on India and Indian companies, along with the people. 

 

This is the result of a duopoly. When only Indigo and Air India are key players, by default the notice period will be longer since both airlines have a much smaller talent pool to choose pilots from.