Modi sarkar economic reforms/governance performance thread

[amiret]

Speak only with our nod, govt tells UGC boss

NEW DELHI: The HRD ministry has severely reprimanded UGC chairperson Ved Prakash for his outbursts against Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA) before Parliament's standing committee on May 26 and asked him to take prior permission to articulate views contrary to the government's policies. Criticizing the flagship programme at the meeting, Prakash said because of it the programme money was not reaching the institutions directly with the state governments having become "middlemen".

In a terse letter, former education secretary SN Mohanty, who has since been transferred, told Prakash that "government's position including policy is articulated in unison and no discordant note is voiced".

Completely agree . UGC Chairperson, Mr. Ved Prakash is a Puppet and must not voice any criticism before any Parliamentary committee We can't afford to have anarchy where Govt servants are allowed to express their own opinions.

[mishra]

So finally, This government has got dragon to breathe. Long overdue, Atleast now rest of wold will understand how big of a bully China is. Grabbing land from every neighbour http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-defends-projects-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-objects-to-indias-oil-exploration-in-south-china-768667

China Defends Projects in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Objects to India's Oil Exploration in South China Sea eijing: China has defended its investments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had strongly objected to during his visit to that country last month. Beijing has also virtually rejected PM Modi's push to clarify the Line of Actual Control or LAC. Beijing today said it prefers a pact with India on a code of conduct to maintain peace along the border rather than clarification of the LAC proposed by PM Modi. Deputy Director General of the Asian Affairs at the Foreign Ministry Huang Xilian, outlining China's first public reaction to PM Modi's proposal, said both sides should try to reach an agreement on the code of conduct, as attempts to clarify mutual positions on the LAC had "encountered difficulties" in the past.

[mishra]

^ Should India invite Japan to Naval excercise?

[seedhi]

Speak only with our nod' date= govt tells UGC boss

Completely agree . UGC Chairperson, Mr. Ved Prakash is a Puppet and must not voice any criticism before any Parliamentary committee We can't afford to have anarchy where Govt servants are allowed to express their own opinions.

No no, the ideal system is when EVERY govt official is ALWAYS allowed to speak his or her own mind. For example, in the court the counsel representing the govt should be allowed to speak against the govt position. Similarly, our ambassador to pakistan should be allowed to favor pakistan over India if he/she chooses to. Bureaucrats who are supposed to oversee a welfare scheme should be allowed to trash it in public. That will be "swaraj".

[seedhi]

Stupendous growth in tourists arriving on E-visas

Total number of 1,10,657 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa during January- May 2015 as compared to 9,841 during January- May 2014, registering a growth of 1024.4% The Government of India launched Tourist Visa on Arrival (TVoA) enabled by Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA), presently known as e-Tourist Visa scheme, on 27th November 2014 for 43 countries. The Government extended this Scheme to the citizens of Guyana and Sri Lanka in January, 2015 and April, 2015, respectively. The e-Tourist Visa facility is extended to the nationals of 31 countries in May, 2015. The following are the important highlights of e-Tourist Visa during May, 2015: (i) During the month of May 2015, a total of 15,659 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa as compared to 1,833 during the month of May 2014, registering a growth of 754.3%. (ii) During January- May 2015, a total of 1,10,657 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa as compared to 9,841 during January- May 2014, registering a growth of 1024.4% . (iii) This high growth may be attributed to introduction of e-Tourist Visa for 76 countries as against coverage of earlier TVoA scheme for 12 countries. (iv) The percentage shares of top 10 source countries availing e-Tourist Visa facility during May 2015 were as follows: USA (37.82%), Germany (9.35%), Australia (8.95%), Russian Federation (5.85%), Republic of Korea (4.30%), UAE (3.53%), Mexico (3.16%), Ukraine (3.01%), Japan (2.89%) and Singapore (2.43%). (v) The percentage shares of different ports in tourist arrivals on e-Tourist Visa during May 2015 were as follows: New Delhi (43.65%), Mumbai (22.14%), Bengaluru (9.66%), Chennai (7.25%), Hyderabad (4.55%), Kochi (3.97%) , Goa (3.81%), Kolkata (3.24%) and Trivandrum (1.73%). http://pib.nic.in/newsite/mbErel.aspx?relid=122323

[Number]

^ Very good.

[Cricket_Hacker]

tourist growth is 10%,not much different from previous years

[mishra]

One question, If Modis, neighbor first policy keeps going on, Can India, Lanka, Madives, Nepal, Maynmar,Bhutan (Infact whole of SAARC oincluding may be Pak) can start working on thinking of a monetary Union,single currency in next 8-10 years?

[gattaca]

One question' date=' If Modis, neighbor first policy keeps going on, Can India, Lanka, Madives, Nepal, Maynmar,Bhutan (Infact whole of SAARC oincluding may be Pak) can start working on thinking of a monetary Union,single currency in next 8-10 years?[/quote'] This single currency is a big pain in the butt. Look at euro Germany and France are only countries bearing the brunt of Greece and other countries which are dependent on tourists only. It is very similar to what srilanka, maldives and nepal economy is based on.

[mishra]

This single currency is a big pain in the butt. Look at euro Germany and France are only countries bearing the brunt of Greece and other countries which are dependent on tourists only. It is very similar to what srilanka' date=' maldives and nepal economy is based on.[/quote'] Greece was nowhere near where its now before Euro. So many infra and development projects got implemented. Whereever you go in Greece, you can smell of fresh cement and newbuild. Also, among SAARC nation,There isn't disparity like the one in Europe example Romania vs Germany. Offcourse preventive measures can be implemented but all the economies in the zone are at similar level. But this way India can successfully wardoff any Chinese threat. I am sure Pakis wont agree, But so what? If they feel the pain @ mutual trade, They will fall in line

[gattaca]

Greece was nowhere near where its now before Euro. So many infra and development projects got implemented. Whereever you go in Greece, you can smell of fresh cement and newbuild. Also, among SAARC nation,There isn't disparity like the one in Europe example Romania vs Germany. Offcourse preventive measures can be implemented but all the economies in the zone are at similar level. But this way India can successfully wardoff any Chinese threat. I am sure Pakis wont agree, But so what? If they feel the pain @ mutual trade, They will fall in line

I understand now where you are coming from. But what is the incentive for countries like Nepal,Maldives and Myanmar. Also this model is only sustainable if inda and other country will do lots of exports like germany and france.

[amiret]

"My diminishing respect for you ends today,” :Ram Jethmalani

Veteran jurist Ram Jethmalani announced his “break-up” with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and threatened to challenge the appointment of former Central Board of Direct Taxes chairman KV Chowdary as chief vigilance commissioner (CVC) on Monday. “Now we shall fight it out in the Supreme Court and the court of the people of India. My diminishing respect for you ends today,” Jethmalani wrote in a letter to Modi, his second against the appointment. Besides, the Centre drew flak for another set of appointments on Monday as it picked retired bureaucrats Vijai Sharma as the chief information commissioner and Sudhir Bhargava as information commissioner. The move comes more than nine months after the watchdog was left without a chief, prompting allegations the Narendra Modi government was trying to weaken the right to information law. The government’s decision to fill only one of the four vacant posts of information commissioners came under fire from activists. The government didn’t cite any reason why it could not find any suitable candidates from a list of 553 hopefuls – many of them bureaucrats – who had applied. Anjali Bhardwaj at Satark Nagrik Sangathan said the government could have appointed Bhargava nine months ago. “Why wait so long and weaken the institution?” RTI activist Lokesh Batra said the commission was now saddled with over 40,000 pending cases because of the delay in filling vacancies.

LINK

[mishra]

I understand now where you are coming from. But what is the incentive for countries like Nepal' date='Maldives and Myanmar. Also this model is only sustainable if inda and other country will do lots of exports like germany and france.[/quote'] I think Indian Rupee works in Nepal and Bhutan. For daily wages, people cross the border everyday. There is so much bilateral trade between India and its neighbour that it makes sense to have some sort of arrangement when it comes to Central Bank level instead of paying dollars

[Khalpat]

Progress Report on Constraints of the Modi Government

By Richard M. Rossow Jun 4, 2015 At the time of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in the April-May 2014 Lok Sabha election, we had pointed out that there would be powerful constraints on the government’s ability to take key actions to stimulate the economy. These included: ■Continued weakness in the upper house of Parliament (Rajya Sabha); ■A weak footprint at the state level as it controls just 8 of India’s 29 states; ■Internal party divisions on the importance of economic liberalization specifically regarding increasing market access; ■The lack of fiscal space due to a high federal deficit; and lastly, ■India’s large imbalance in goods trade. Over the last year, the BJP has incrementally strengthened its hand in most of these areas, and will likely continue to do so in the coming year. But there are no obvious watershed moments on the horizon that could strengthen the party’s policymaking hand. Below we review the changes to each of these constraints over the last year, and the outlook for Modi Year 2. Rajya Sabha (Upper House of India’s Parliament): Members of the Rajya Sabha are indirectly elected by state legislatures for six year terms, with seats opening up throughout the year. At the time of its victory in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP held only 42 of 243 seats in the Rajya Sabha. Since then, the BJP has increased its seat total to 47. Congress still has a healthy lead with a total of 68 seats and also appointed all 10 “nominated” members currently in the Rajya Sabha. The government has shown some ability to navigate this weak hand through important legislative successes including the coal, insurance, and mining bills, and the land boundary agreement with Bangladesh. But other key reforms including the goods and services tax (GST) and land acquisition amendments have been stalled in Parliament. The government has not yet resorted to using its powers to call a special “joint session of Parliament,” though this remains a potential tool for key reforms. Over the next twelve months, twenty-one seats will open in the Rajya Sabha of which Congress currently holds six, the BJP two, regional parties six, and “Nominated” members seven. Both the BJP and Congress are likely to each lose a seat, though the BJP will be able to add the seven “Nominated” seats to add to its support base. The regional parties will pick up the difference of two seats. Looking Ahead: Both the BJP and Congress stand to lose a bit of ground when looking at seats held by their parties. But there will be an important shift in the BJP’s favor as it fills 7 “Nominated” seats currently held by Congress appointees. Including these “Nominated” members, the BJP should increase its hold to 22 percent of Rajya Sabha seats. Better, but still lagging behind Congress. State Governments: When the BJP took office at the Center, the party controlled only five of India’s 29 states (by “states” I include the territories of Delhi and Puducherry, which have locally-elected bodies). By winning state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand, the party now holds 8 states. Successful implementation of other programs, like the “Make in India” and “Smart Cities” campaigns, lies primarily with state governments, and winning states also allows a party to strengthen its hand in the Rajya Sabha. In the next year, six states/territories will hold elections including Bihar, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. The BJP is not the incumbent in any of these states, but it did win a majority of Lok Sabha seats in Bihar (22 of 40) and Assam (7 of 13) last year. Looking Ahead: Assam is the only election that will pit the Congress and BJP in a head-to-head contest. The BJP has a reasonable chance of winning one or two states, and in so doing, may match or exceed the total states held by Congress (currently 9) if Congress loses in Assam and/or Kerala. Internal Divisions over Liberalization: This may be the hurdle that has proven least difficult for Prime Minister Modi to overcome. Certainly there are differences within the party on certain reforms such as opening up areas such as retail trade to foreign investment. But overall, the primary legislative agenda has been aimed at economic liberalization. However, this is only true in terms of domestic economic liberalization. India’s opposition to opening its borders to global trade remains strong, as evidenced by the inability to move forward on key pending trade agreements, the detrimental changes being contemplated to India’s model Bilateral Investment Treaty, and stalling implementation of last year’s WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. Looking Ahead: While sometimes stymied due to opposition, the party put economic bills covering mining, coal, insurance, GST, and land acquisition reforms at the top of its list of priorities. The government has moved on non-legislative market access reforms too, in areas such as railways, defense, medical devices, and construction. But there are very few signs that the Modi government is warming up, even incrementally, to serious trade liberalization beyond FDI caps. High Fiscal Deficit: So far we have seen the Modi government move slowly on fiscal consolidation. His government has prepared two budgets, and adopted a slow, incremental approach to reducing India’s deficits. The central government had a 4.1 percent fiscal deficit in Fiscal 2015, which is expected to drop to 3.8 percent over the next two years. In reality, it is more likely that they quietly hope to reduce the fiscal deficit through economic growth (and resultant tax income growth), and may, in fact, be headed in that direction. This is critical as reduced deficits will allow interest rates for private sector borrowing to moderate. Looking Ahead: The deficit appears to be narrowing, due to a mixture of budgetary changes as well as brighter growth prospects. This will likely continue in the year ahead. Trade Deficit (Goods): India has a surprisingly large deficit in its goods trade. In the fiscal year ending March 31, 2015, India’s trade deficit was$137 billion, up slightly from the $136 billion deficit the preceding fiscal year. This is despite a steep 16 percent decline in India’s oil import bill during the current fiscal year. India’s goods trade deficit has averaged between 8 percent and 10 percent of GDP in recent years, one of the highest levels among G20 members. This has resulted in many actions that have aggrieved foreign trade partners, notably the creation of compulsory local manufacturing rules in several industries. This point is closely related to the issue of internal BJP opposition to market access liberalization noted earlier. Looking Ahead: So far we have not seen India take advantage of lower oil prices to balance its trade, nor seen the fruits of the new “Make in India” campaign. Until India proves capable of reducing its trade deficit, the nation is unlikely to deeply embrace substantive global trade talks or gravitate away from forced localization. In its second year in office, the Modi government will not see a substantial decrease in the hurdles that limit its ability to press for a more robust economic reform program in the coming year. However, the government has already shown it can conduct a more limited legislative agenda and carry out important non-legislative reforms despite the challenging political environment. Richard M. Rossow is a senior fellow and holds the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

http://csis.org/publication/progress-report-constraints-modi-government-5

[amiret]

Rossow's litany of excuses mirrors the talking points of other Govt CheerGirls . IMO , they are readying the turf for a large fiscal stimulus . From digging empty ditches to building bridges to nowhere , The great Socialist Spending Spree is coming.

[diga]

Manu Pubby ‏@manupubby 17m17 minutes ago Now confirmed: Indian special forces carry out cross border operation into Myanmar. Several militants who carried out Manipur attack killed.

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Manu Pubby ‏@manupubby 16m16 minutes ago Bold action: Indian Army goes into Myanmar, takes down militants involved in Manipur attack. A very rare cross border operation by India.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

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Har Har Modi

[diga]

^Hopefully we follow the same course of action against Pak based terrorists...

[G_B_]

India stockpiling ammunition against Fed rate hike disruption

India has seen the maximum accretion to its foreign exchange reserves, which places it in a better position to tackle any turbulence when US Fed starts raising interest rates

After the taper tantrum that started in June 2013, India has accumulated a substantial amount of foreign exchange reserves that can be used as ammunition in case a defence of the currency is required. The chart shows that India, among the so-called Fragile Five economies, has seen the maximum accretion to its foreign exchange reserves. That is apart from the improvement in its current account and will help tide over any turbulence that may occur when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates. According to the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, total forex reserves were $352.47 billion at the end of May 2015.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/r4MDAAHV8UYEIlhomnoe5N/India-stockpiling-ammunition-against-Fed-rate-hike-disruptio.html Its a case of Winter Is Coming with these rate hikes. Its been accumulating at a fair clip. Kudos to Rajan, Jailtey and the Modi government for learning from the mistakes of 2013.

[seedhi]

Rossow's litany of excuses mirrors the talking points of other Govt CheerGirls . IMO , they are readying the turf for a large fiscal stimulus . From digging empty ditches to building bridges to nowhere , The great Socialist Spending Spree is coming.

Au contraire, this is what is being readied.

Labour overhaul: Modi govt drafting bill to loosen hire-and-fire rules Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing to launch India's biggest overhaul of labour laws since independence in a bid to create millions of manufacturing jobs, at the risk of stirring up a political backlash that could block other critical reforms. Three officials at the Union labour ministry told Reuters that the ministry was drafting a bill for the upcoming parliamentary session that proposes to loosen strict hire-and-fire rules and make it tougher for workers to form unions. The changes, if approved by parliament, will be the biggest economic reform since India opened its economy in 1991, but it is likely to meet stiff opposition in parliament and from labour activists. The NDA government enjoys a majority in the lower house of parliament, but not the upper, hobbling the PM's ability to pass politically contentious measures. That handicap has stymied his efforts to make it easier for businesses to buy farmland and convert Asia's third-largest economy into a common market. Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said Modi had little option but to push ahead with the measures. "Without these reforms, the economy would stagnate, and frustrated investors would look elsewhere," he said. "You cannot make political opposition an excuse for not taking tough decisions." Since taking office in May last year, Modi has taken a series of incremental steps to make labour laws less onerous for businesses, but fear of a union-led political backlash made him leave the responsibility for unshackling the labour market with Indian states. He let his party's governments in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh take the lead in this area. Encouraged by a successful and peaceful implementation of the measures in those states, the union labour ministry now intends to replicate them at the national level, one of the ministry officials said. Manish Sabharwal, one of the brains behind Rajasthan's labour reforms and co-founder of recruitment firm Teamlease, said the federal administration would have been better off without attempting these changes. "Let states carry out these changes and save your political energy for other policy reforms," he said. Easier firing As part of the proposed revamp, a factory employing fewer than 300 workers would be allowed to lay off workers without government permission. Currently, factories employing 100 workers or more need approval for layoffs. But they will have to pay three times the current severance package, the labour ministry officials said. Companies have long been demanding an increase in the ceiling as governments rarely grant such permissions for layoffs, making it difficult to respond to business downturns and encouraging them to stay small. "It will facilitate ease of doing business while ensuring safety, health and social security of every worker," a senior labour ministry official involved in the deliberations said. The official said the bill was expected to be finalised in the next three or four weeks, and would then be sent to cabinet for approval. The planned changes would also make it tougher for employees to form unions or go on strike, but would make all employees eligible for minimum wage. The World Bank says India has one of the most rigid labour markets in the world. That in turn has been a drag on manufacturing, which accounts for only 16% of India's $2 trillion economy, compared with 32% of China's. Some 84% of India's manufacturers employed fewer than 50 workers in 2009, compared with 25% in China, according to a study published by consultancy firm McKinsey & Co last year. Economists cite current labour rules as the biggest constraint on Modi's "Make in India" ambition to spur a manufacturing boom creating jobs for 200 million Indians reaching working age over the next two decades. Just 8% of manufacturing workers in India are in formal employment, the rest are short-term contractors who enjoy minimal social security benefits. It will take deft political management to ensure a speedy passage for the bill. Opposition parties have blocked Modi's land bill in parliament, calling it "anti-farmer". The labour reforms, which are being opposed by labour unions, could also end up being labelled as "pro-corporates". An official in Modi's office didn't rule out holding off the bill due to short-term political considerations. "They may introduce it, but the progress would be very slow," said Kilbinder Dosanjh, a director at the Eurasia Group consultancy. http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/modi-govt-prepares-for-major-labour-overhaul-bill-to-loosen-hire-and-fire-rules-being-drafted/article1-1356691.aspx

This will be much tougher to pass than the GST or the Land Bill. Still, I hope the govt makes an effort. It can be a long term game changer.