Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) No Mulayam in ceremony , Nitish not at all accceptable also no Mayawati Edited November 20, 2015 by Singh bling
sticky wicket Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Lol, had to see it to believe it2nd in-charge of Bihar...the illiterate son of a convicted criminal only in India
G_B_ Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 1 cabinet berth for sena was ridiculous and we are seeing result of that , they hardly look allies as Sena keep's on attacking BJP Anyway I am more interested in what Nitish want , he is much weaker as CM what he was with BJP , down from 115 to 72 , but emerging as big leader of opposition , but is it realistic to be a PM t if he wins 25 seats in 2019 . O/W what is going to be his gain in all this game? if secular front comes then he will get same or less ministerial seats which he could have got with BJP , He wont even contest 25 seats in 2019. Assuming he sticks with the MG and does not come back to the BJPBihar has 40 seats. Based on that JD(u) will contest 16 RJD will contest 16 and Congress will contest 8 if the 4:4:2 formula happens.So max he can win IMO is 16. With the BJP he was contesting 20 seats. As it was only BJP and Jd(u)Do you honestly believe somebody who has won 16 seats can be PM? You think bigger parties like AIADMK/DMK and Trinamool are simply going to sit by and let him become PM based on that?
G_B_ Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) It seems the RJD appear to have got the most plum ministries. Looks like Nitish threw his party under a bus to protect his chair.There is no nitish for PM. What you are going to see is lalu systematically neutralizing Nitish kumar from within the MG People need to read up on how Lalu become a CM the first time. He was considered a harmless consensus candidate as VP singh and Chandrashekar could not agree on who would be CM/leader of opposition. Systematically chucked out people from the Janata Dal. Nitish was one of them. History set to repeat. Edited November 20, 2015 by G_B_ adi B 1
G_B_ Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 People need to understand his mail goal that is the to be PM. How many seats GD Devegauda and IK Gujral had when they became PM. Nitish is certainly a bigger leader, atm. Same Nitish who asked Modi to come to national politics once now suddenly is allergic to Modi. It only tells you that he after is a politician and he has his ambitions too. He knows he cannot become PM if he support Modi, the only way is to go against him. Now, he has become the leader of anti-Modi brigade and proving it how much he is anti-Modi every day.They were heads of the Janata Dal which had 192 seats....
The Outsider Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Sorry but this is a joke of a post .the guy was with BJP for 17 years even in 2002 , then what happened in 2013?In 2004 he was talking just like another politician but then he had shown people of Bihar development. In 2009, 2010 he badly mauled Lalu because of development .Both RJD and JDU are no.1 and No.2 parties in Bihar , for how long this alliance is feasible? can you expect in any state No. 1-2 parties ally .In other word to keep their alliance going they need stronger BJP in BiharAnd Sorry I don't buy this principle theory , how come flagging Advani Rath yatra in 2011 was in his principles? Modi became the de facto BJP leader in 2013. JDU is the number 2 party in Bihar because of RJD. If all parties were to contest independently it would be number 3. You've got to realize that the caste vote bank for JDU is a minuscule 3-5% compared with 15% each for BJP and RJD. The Muslim vote is always dicey and depends a lot on the local candidates and winnability. Forget about the national stage, Nitish cannot even win Bihar on his own despite the stellar work he has done as CM.
The Outsider Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Same Nitish who used to praise Modi to no end.I am just quoting this post as an example, but judging from the posts here it looks like many do not understand Nitish and his politics.To paraphrase Nitish himself he understands his limitations but his underlying philosophy is always to work for the improvement of Bihar. Given his limited vote bank he has had to align with leaders not the best fit for his vision, but he always has had the development of Bihar as his primary goal. At the moment there is no one better than Nitish to lead Bihar from a place where getting electricity was an achievement to where the youth wants industry and jobs in their state. Nitish is the best hope for the youth of Bihar. If he could achieve so much saddled with jaahils and Sanghis for 8 years, he will only do better saddled with chara chors.
bulbul Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) We understood Nitish politics very well..he is just another opportunistic politician who thought he will get PM's seat freely..looks like he was fooled by Advani Wait for few more days Tejaswi will teach him real politics of Bihar. Edited November 20, 2015 by bulbul
bulbul Posted November 20, 2015 Posted November 20, 2015 Irony is Kejri lost credibility by giving or taking jappi yo/from Lalau..but Nitish becomes a genius for aligning with same Lalluu.....
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 Modi became the de facto BJP leader in 2013. JDU is the number 2 party in Bihar because of RJD. If all parties were to contest independently it would be number 3. You've got to realize that the caste vote bank for JDU is a minuscule 3-5% compared with 15% each for BJP and RJD. The Muslim vote is always dicey and depends a lot on the local candidates and winnability. Forget about the national stage, Nitish cannot even win Bihar on his own despite the stellar work he has done as CM.I still don't understand JDU was no.3 yet BJP gave him CM post in 2000 and in 2005 why? and you are forgetting that in 2010 a very huge mandate was given to BJP JDU alliance , even Yadav's and muslims voted for them , actually we don't have answer whether people would have voted for him or not
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 He wont even contest 25 seats in 2019. Assuming he sticks with the MG and does not come back to the BJPBihar has 40 seats. Based on that JD(u) will contest 16 RJD will contest 16 and Congress will contest 8 if the 4:4:2 formula happens.So max he can win IMO is 16. With the BJP he was contesting 20 seats. As it was only BJP and Jd(u)Do you honestly believe somebody who has won 16 seats can be PM? You think bigger parties like AIADMK/DMK and Trinamool are simply going to sit by and let him become PM based on that? In Indian politics you can expect anything , imagine NDA down to 210-220 with Bjp 180-190, congress 110-120 Now in this scenario for the sake of secularism many parties will support anyone oppose to BJP.Rahul with 110-120 will not become PM and Congress will not put any PM candidate. In this scenario Nitish or Kejriwal has best chance no matter how many they win. 1 secular bakra will lead that coalition and it could be Nitish
Singh bling Posted November 20, 2015 Author Posted November 20, 2015 We understood Nitish politics very well..he is just another opportunistic politician who thought he will get PM's seat freely..looks like he was fooled by Advani Wait for few more days Tejaswi will teach him real politics of Bihar.Actually what Nitish want is mystery , in 2009 Congress was trying hard to win over Nitish , yet he stayed in NDA , he could had broken the alliance and form alliance with Lalu and congress instead of badly failing BJP .But he did not,may be huge victory in 2010 was turning point when he started thinking of PM post , so in 2009 he could had been with winning party but he stayed with losing one , again in 2014 he could have been with winning party , so either his calculations went wrong or he was eyeing something very big
G_B_ Posted November 22, 2015 Posted November 22, 2015 In Indian politics you can expect anything , imagine NDA down to 210-220 with Bjp 180-190, congress 110-120 Now in this scenario for the sake of secularism many parties will support anyone oppose to BJP.Rahul with 110-120 will not become PM and Congress will not put any PM candidate. In this scenario Nitish or Kejriwal has best chance no matter how many they win. 1 secular bakra will lead that coalition and it could be Nitish BJP reach 180 they will form government. With or without modi. The likes of BJD and AIADMK/DMK will lend support. Unlike what the parties in northern India think the likes of DMK AIADMK TRS (all of whome have allied with BJP in the past) TDP and Jagan Congress have no qualms about aligning with the BJP. Even now the BJP can dump the TDP and take support of Jagan in AP and Rao in Telangana. The collpase of the congress has opened up a lot of options for BJP in those two state.The potential issue arises if there is a 2004 like situation. Then yes potentially some third person can be CM. But its more likely that the likes of Samajwadi/BSP (whoever is bigger in UP) Trinamool etc take turns to be CM than give it to Nitish. There is much bigger regional sartaps than Nitish.
G_B_ Posted November 22, 2015 Posted November 22, 2015 (edited) Modi became the de facto BJP leader in 2013. JDU is the number 2 party in Bihar because of RJD. If all parties were to contest independently it would be number 3. You've got to realize that the caste vote bank for JDU is a minuscule 3-5% compared with 15% each for BJP and RJD. The Muslim vote is always dicey and depends a lot on the local candidates and winnability. Forget about the national stage, Nitish cannot even win Bihar on his own despite the stellar work he has done as CM.Not really.Nitish had support from the Congress. He would have formed his front with congres, NCP and commies.The congress+ others were about 8-10% of the vote. Lalu prasad would have been number 3. In this scenario Nitish probably would have lost to the BJP. What your forgetting is that muslims would have voted for the front more likely to give a tougher challenge to the BJP. Jd(u) in such a coalition could have fought about 160 seats being the dominant partner. Edited November 22, 2015 by G_B_
G_B_ Posted November 22, 2015 Posted November 22, 2015 (edited) I think its clear who wears the pants in Bihar. Its the RJDbarring nitish kumar nearly every other Jd(u) minister has been given dud portfolios.Agriculture, Finance , Public works and construction, irrigation are all with the RJD. Jd(u) has home (nitish) and revenue (called tax) and nothing else of note. They have industries minister. But Bihar is probably one of the least industrial states in India. That ministry is useless. Industries is a powerful minister in TN, Maha Guj etc. States which have an industrial sector of note. Congress too have been given dud ministries. But considering they are mathematically redundant in Bihar it was expected. Had they been in a position that without their numbers MG gov would call IMO they would have got one of the ministries RJD is holding. Edited November 22, 2015 by G_B_
Singh bling Posted November 23, 2015 Author Posted November 23, 2015 I think its clear who wears the pants in Bihar. Its the RJDbarring nitish kumar nearly every other Jd(u) minister has been given dud portfolios.Agriculture, Finance , Public works and construction, irrigation are all with the RJD. Jd(u) has home (nitish) and revenue (called tax) and nothing else of note. They have industries minister. But Bihar is probably one of the least industrial states in India. That ministry is useless. Industries is a powerful minister in TN, Maha Guj etc. States which have an industrial sector of note. Congress too have been given dud ministries. But considering they are mathematically redundant in Bihar it was expected. Had they been in a position that without their numbers MG gov would call IMO they would have got one of the ministries RJD is holding.Future is very good for BJP in Bihar , they are now the only opposition , with time people will see no difference between Lalu and Nitish . And whenever they get angry from govt they will have no choice but to vote for BJP , also many JDU leaders will be angry, if BJP invite them and give them good posts they will too help BJP
someone Posted November 24, 2015 Posted November 24, 2015 Future is very good for BJP in Bihar , they are now the only opposition , with time people will see no difference between Lalu and Nitish . And whenever they get angry from govt they will have no choice but to vote for BJP , also many JDU leaders will be angry, if BJP invite them and give them good posts they will too help BJP Not so easy especially when elections are fought on saving your caste, it doesn't matter about law & order, crimes or development.For BJP, it's an question of how effective an opposition will they be? They can learn from Congress who has just 44 seats but have kept ruling party on backfoot.
asterix Posted November 24, 2015 Posted November 24, 2015 Future is very good for BJP in Bihar , they are now the only opposition , with time people will see no difference between Lalu and Nitish . And whenever they get angry from govt they will have no choice but to vote for BJP , also many JDU leaders will be angry, if BJP invite them and give them good posts they will too help BJP With a Casteist Bihar, you'll never know... BJP might struggle to get enough seats in the next LS elections there...people say Biharis are very politically astute people. I'm sorry but they aren't...
Singh bling Posted November 24, 2015 Author Posted November 24, 2015 Not so easy especially when elections are fought on saving your caste, it doesn't matter about law & order, crimes or development.For BJP, it's an question of how effective an opposition will they be? They can learn from Congress who has just 44 seats but have kept ruling party on backfoot.In 2010 Bihari's rejected castist politics of Lalu , Paswan and voted heavily in favour of NDA because of development.The fact is development face plus caste factor vs BJP's congress like tactics where you vote for the most powerful leader at centre. BJP always won when they have given powerful regional leaders rather than depending on their central leadership.Why BJP did not declare Sushil Modi as CM candidate?
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