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tweaker

By tweaker
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Singh bling Mentor

Singh bling

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, G_B_ said:

To be fair, if you cant sustain yourself for 4 months. You are officially classified as a zombie company/distressed. Many economic theories have stated that its better to let them go under.

 

With regards to jobs, India's government bond yields have fallen since demon. Ie borrowing for gov is now cheaper. So Modi will generate jobs via large scale infra spending as suggested in the Feb 1 budget.

 

One of the reasons Modi was forced to change track was because the private sector was just not generating enough jobs. The reason for that was piling on debts from 2008-2013. It had become clear that government spending was the only way to have a more sustainable short to medium growth. So he has gambled in generating more funds for the central government and channeling that into infra which India needs.

 

 I think with inflation in check rate cuts should follow in 2017 to ease lending conditions as the banks will now pass on rate cuts.

 

 

 

 

To be fair world is becoming less and less labour intensive,Almost every nation is struggling how to give jobs to increasing workforce.On one hand highly skilled workforce is earning in millions while less skilled are losing jobs to technology.The only option is govt coming to rescue of that sector O/W forget about Modi , even God cannot give employment to 1 billion Indians

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Singh bling said:

To be fair world is becoming less and less labour intensive,Almost every nation is struggling how to give jobs to increasing workforce.On one hand highly skilled workforce is earning in millions while less skilled are losing jobs to technology.The only option is govt coming to rescue of that sector O/W forget about Modi , even God cannot give employment to 1 billion Indians

Look there are ways around it. The textile sector to be honest is atm least affected by automation.  So I think India is heavily pushing for FTAs with certain countries to get our exports up. Its also a mass employer. But in the interim spending on infra is the way forward. Roads need to be improved, bridges need to be built. You are right that employment in India will have serious challenges. 30% of Indians are under the age of 14. This is why India needs drastic measures.

 

A lot of people asked me in the UK (friends) why would you even contemplate demon. The answer is simple. 1% of Indians pay direct taxes. These small to medium firms you mention, they just dont pay any tax. They have never paid any tax be it in good or bad times. Our tax to GDP ratio is 15% which is abysmally low. Has been the case for the past 20 years. The poor will remain poor unless there is a degree of welfare in the state. Ie there is a proven link between rise in government coffers and decline in poverty.

 

Corporate taxes are just not paid to the extent they should be paid. The only people who seem to be paying their due to are the salaried class. Not cause they are saints but rather cause they have no choice. This means the government has to scrap by on indirect taxes which dont discriminate between rich or poor. Based on what the government collects we expect the government to provide us with subsidies. 

 

So you have this paradoxical situation where Indians expect roads to be good services to be good. At the same time want taxes to be low or just dont pay taxes. I have an uncle who owns a business in Mumbai. Family friend. Kept moaning about the state of roads. Does not pay any income tax and shows his company (falsely) in loss. I asked him how come you dont pay any tax. He said if i pay tax government will waste it anyways so why pay tax. Its not just him, farmers of landholding more than 15 acres,  doctors, lawyers ie self employed. You own 3-4 acres in the mango districts in Konkan per acres per year even with low rainfall you earn 3 lakhs per acre. A farmer with 3-4 acres easily gets 9-12 lakhs. They dont pay any tax due to cash transactions. If you are ever in Mumbai and want to goto Goa just drive down and you will see a surprising amount of wealthy farmers with latest tractors.

 

Even before demon the government had a tax amnesty, in the 6 months to October they barely collected anything. That IMO led to modi going for demon. Granted the execution was poor, but I think he wanted to catch people off guard.  I have a strong feeling if people who held BM had reacted positively to the government amnesties demon would not have happened. I also think the small businesses should think, should we as collective pay our taxes so that this does not repeat. Or do we make are government desperate to get taxes which fundamentally affects our business.

 

I have heard a lot of noise about RBI breaking its bond. "Rights" But when 1% of Indians pay direct taxes I think its fair to say maybe the majority of Indian citizens need to read up on responsibilities. 

 

Just to point out, I do very much agree that execution was poor. I think Modi's dream of a cashless economy bringing more accountability is still 20-25 years off. For a cashless economy you need internet banking and crucially every adult to have a debit card. This is not going to happen in the immediate term. But you have to back him for the sentiments alone. India needs to drastic changes in various fields. 

 

Just another example is agriculture. The average holding is barely 3 acres. There comes a point where its just not competitive and people are better off working elsewhere. Thats probably going to cause more long term social upheaval but somebody is going to have to tackle it.

 

 

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted

and this ties into my responses for the CPEC thread

 

If everybody in Pakistan (especially the army who control vast % of the industry and the industrialist PM himself) actually pay the taxes they owe the government then Pakistan can easily afford the CPEC projects and the country as a whole will really benefit and grow strongly. 

 

In reality what will happen is nobody will continue to pay taxes and Pak will default on their debts. (0.57% of Pakistanis pay their direct taxes). Unlike India pakistan does not have have indirect taxes of note. Their tax to GDP ratio is much worse than ours

 

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1027023/tax-ing-issue-pakistan-faces-rs3-3-trillion-revenue-black-hole-says-imf/

 

South asian nations are typical in a way. High population growth. Nobody pays taxes, everybody imports more than exports and everybody uses remittances to cover their asses in terms of macroeconomic stability. Poor mentality poor people. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Singh bling Mentor

Singh bling

Posted
Posted
On 12/27/2016 at 3:51 AM, G_B_ said:

Look there are ways around it. The textile sector to be honest is atm least affected by automation.  So I think India is heavily pushing for FTAs with certain countries to get our exports up. Its also a mass employer. But in the interim spending on infra is the way forward. Roads need to be improved, bridges need to be built. You are right that employment in India will have serious challenges. 30% of Indians are under the age of 14. This is why India needs drastic measures.

 

Ant that textile sector is very badly affected , several units have shut down 

http://www.yarnsandfibers.com/news/textile-news/demonetization-hits-indian-textile-exports#.WGN34uY2uM8

And yes India need drastic measures not economic experiments. Tell me who are top economists of world which suggest this type of demonitization? This move has very little to do with drastic measures. .It was populist move to become superman by Modi who though that Govt will have windfall gain and with that he can introduce several populist schemes , now most of those hopes are dissappeared.

On 12/27/2016 at 3:51 AM, G_B_ said:

A lot of people asked me in the UK (friends) why would you even contemplate demon. The answer is simple. 1% of Indians pay direct taxes. These small to medium firms you mention, they just dont pay any tax. They have never paid any tax be it in good or bad times. Our tax to GDP ratio is 15% which is abysmally low. Has been the case for the past 20 years. The poor will remain poor unless there is a degree of welfare in the state. Ie there is a proven link between rise in government coffers and decline in poverty.

Agree with you but how can this move solve the problem of very low percentage Indians paying tax.

 

On 12/27/2016 at 3:51 AM, G_B_ said:

Corporate taxes are just not paid to the extent they should be paid. The only people who seem to be paying their due to are the salaried class. Not cause they are saints but rather cause they have no choice. This means the government has to scrap by on indirect taxes which dont discriminate between rich or poor. Based on what the government collects we expect the government to provide us with subsidies. 

 

So you have this paradoxical situation where Indians expect roads to be good services to be good. At the same time want taxes to be low or just dont pay taxes. I have an uncle who owns a business in Mumbai. Family friend. Kept moaning about the state of roads. Does not pay any income tax and shows his company (falsely) in loss. I asked him how come you dont pay any tax. He said if i pay tax government will waste it anyways so why pay tax. Its not just him, farmers of landholding more than 15 acres,  doctors, lawyers ie self employed. You own 3-4 acres in the mango districts in Konkan per acres per year even with low rainfall you earn 3 lakhs per acre. A farmer with 3-4 acres easily gets 9-12 lakhs. They dont pay any tax due to cash transactions. If you are ever in Mumbai and want to goto Goa just drive down and you will see a surprising amount of wealthy farmers with latest tractors.

 

Look if IRS department is unable to extract tax from these companies or people then fault lies with them . Instead of demonitization Modi should had increase their strength.Now after demonitization IRS department will have 10 times the load which it had earlier.How manpower short IRS department will do that?

 

On 12/27/2016 at 3:51 AM, G_B_ said:

Even before demon the government had a tax amnesty, in the 6 months to October they barely collected anything. That IMO led to modi going for demon. Granted the execution was poor, but I think he wanted to catch people off guard.  I have a strong feeling if people who held BM had reacted positively to the government amnesties demon would not have happened. I also think the small businesses should think, should we as collective pay our taxes so that this does not repeat. Or do we make are government desperate to get taxes which fundamentally affects our business.

 

I have heard a lot of noise about RBI breaking its bond. "Rights" But when 1% of Indians pay direct taxes I think its fair to say maybe the majority of Indian citizens need to read up on responsibilities. 

Indirect taxes and reforms are needed not a economic experiment which not even African nations do

 

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
On 23/12/2016 at 9:46 PM, Singh bling said:

Nigerians ke achche din aa gaye Even Nigerians know how to exploit Indian system :phehe:

Could this be linked to drug trade. We have big number ( in relative terms) of arrests of drug traffickers and fake note mules since demonitisation?

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
On 23/12/2016 at 6:27 PM, Singh bling said:

You did not get my points

 

1) Electricity is basic necessity while going cashless is imposition .Developed nations has 24*7 electricity supply decades but they too are still dependent on cash .Modi was Gujarat CM and he gave people necessity which people welcomed while he has to impose cashless system

 

2) Persons with very low iq can do cash transaction while cashless transaction are done by those who are educated and have knowledge of these. moreover cashless is not hundred percent reliable  card machines hang, servers go down then what? Also many times you go to shopping with limited cash to control your spending. taking debit card means taking your entire savings with you.

 

3) I agree that cash is also dangerous but it is tried and tested method from centuries. People generally are not tech savy.let me give you example most people have these days What's app data and google maps. I received calls from delivery men that please tell me location. Itell them let me send you location through what's app but most refuse and go with method of asking guards , landmarks etc which are very unreliable.so people are not willing to change for their own benefit. LET ME TELL YOU ON GROUND LEVEL THERE IS ALMOST ZERO SUPPORT FOR CASHLESS APART FROM EDUCATED ELITE CLASS.

 

Its good to embrace technology but going ahead of time cost you badly , remember Pramod Mahajan's High tech campaign in 2004 , it failed very badly but it seem BJP did not learn from mistakes.

 

BTW 2 days ago I did payment of my electricity bill from Paytm "woh bhee darte darte" today I got sms of receipt and mode of payment is written cash.This is Govt system:phehe:

1. Why are you talking in terms of bits and bytes. Whi says inly card is needed.  Unlike proponents of cash card proponents are saying most transaction to be done electronically. So stop arguing on imaginary pount.

2. Low IQ? People resist the change. It is more down to getting used to it. I work in IT and see this resistance every few months.

3. If Election perfoemance is only guide to your policies then you deserve Kejriwal. However with that kind of populist policies, You dont need China or Pakistan to break you. India is not far from crumbling. Look at state of kashmir, Assam, bengal. In pupulist system, All it requires is IMF refusing one loan and country comes on its knees

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted (edited)

^Point 3 is very real. Just like Arab spring where capitals of countries were taken hostage by selected paid few in the name of real democracy, kejri attempted same in Indian capital. Credit to India congress and BJP for not letting him succeed. You could have easily bring anarchy in India. That will lead creation of new Muslim countries. The fact that it was attempted goes to show how weak India had become. Under BJP state has become  stronger

Edited by mishra
Singh bling Mentor

Singh bling

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mishra said:

1. Why are you talking in terms of bits and bytes. Whi says inly card is needed.  Unlike proponents of cash card proponents are saying most transaction to be done electronically. So stop arguing on imaginary pount.

Of course cashless is desirable  but if government will be able to provide cheap reliable internet , education and all necessary infrastructure.Just visit any local hardware market next time you visit India and see yourself how many small shopkeepers will accept cards. 

 

3 hours ago, mishra said:

Low IQ? People resist the change. It is more down to getting used to it. I work in IT and see this resistance every few months.

There was a time congress forecfully implemented nasbandi the impact of that was successive governments were even afraid to talk about parivar niyojan .In democracy force can badly backfire

Singh bling Mentor

Singh bling

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mishra said:

^Point 3 is very real. Just like Arab spring where capitals of countries were taken hostage by selected paid few in the name of real democracy, kejri attempted same in Indian capital. Credit to India congress and BJP for not letting him succeed. You could have easily bring anarchy in India. That will lead creation of new Muslim countries. The fact that it was attempted goes to show how weak India had become. Under BJP state has become  stronger

And what Modi did was dictatorship , tell me one democratic country where legal tenders become invalid overnight? And BTW it is Demonitization supporters that are saying people are supporting them BJP is winning municipal election so this move is correct.Kejriwal election jeete to anarchy ,Modi jeete to democracy and move is right.

jusarrived Community Regular

jusarrived

Posted
Posted
On 27/12/2016 at 0:39 AM, Singh bling said:

And we don't even know that how many small or medium scale industry will be shut forever as they were in already bad shape. The question is How will Now Modi fulfill his promise of jobs , instead of creating he had snatched it from people

May be you need to a little patient , these promises cannot be fulfilled in few weeks or months .

 

We have been in a jobless growth situation for decades now , no Govt has done anything to create jobs in last 60+ years . The employment growth rate was closer to Zero in the last decade when the economy expanded at a more than respectable rate in the same period . Less than the global average . 

The first step is to acknowledge there is a problem , which the past Govts never bothered to . Acknowledge , there is a problem with skills , labour laws , investments , ease of doing business etc . This is exactly what this govt is doing , infact if there is a criticism it should be that they are doing too many things too soon . All you have to do is a google search on what steps have been taken by this Gvt in each of these problem areas . 

 

 

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Singh bling said:

And what Modi did was dictatorship , tell me one democratic country where legal tenders become invalid overnight? And BTW it is Demonitization supporters that are saying people are supporting them BJP is winning municipal election so this move is correct.Kejriwal election jeete to anarchy ,Modi jeete to democracy and move is right.

Nahi! When you bring down government by gherao violence in capital city area. That is anarchy. And i said India, Congress, BJP, the three together managed to avoid it. What i also said that conditions for Arab Spring  were there due to inaction by goi for 70+ years.

If it continued, There wont be much left. China will break India as soon as it sees there is a small chink in India

tweaker Grand Master

tweaker

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Demonetisation is not a ‘monumental blunder’. It has fulfilled its objective – to garner people’s money to save India’s loss-making banks.

 

The operation was planned to perfection and brilliantly executed. In one month, almost all the demonetised currency notes in the country were back in bank vaults. This is corroborated by RBI governor Urjit Patel’s assertion that “the decision was not taken in haste but after detailed deliberations“.

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BeautifulGame said:

No one is breaking India anytime soon .That sort of stuff is just nonsense fearmongering with little ground in facts

India is not easy to break. It has enough leaders and system to counter such an attempt if made by nations like Pakistan. Saudis/ mid east will allways principally and monetarily support creation of new Sunni nation be it from china, Russia, US, Germany or India.

Problem is, for first time we have China directly using stick (instead of carrots) against us.

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tweaker said:

Demonetisation is not a ‘monumental blunder’. It has fulfilled its objective – to garner people’s money to save India’s loss-making banks.

 

The operation was planned to perfection and brilliantly executed. In one month, almost all the demonetised currency notes in the country were back in bank vaults. This is corroborated by RBI governor Urjit Patel’s assertion that “the decision was not taken in haste but after detailed deliberations“.

So why secrecy? Why not do Pakistani way?

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