Champions Trophy 2017 - South Africa Preview

[sandeep]

Will the chokers finally get their act together and win something?  

 

Forget all the details on the strengths and weaknesses of the squad, the proteas always start every global tournament with this question.  And deservedly so.  Time and again, the saffers have been anointed as one of the favorites to win it all, whether its the world cup or champions trophy; whether its ODI or T20.  Only to find different ways to lose, most of the time ruing missed chances and having nobody to blame but themselves.   I volunteered to write the Champions trophy preview for South Africa, because I felt surely, *this* is the year where these guys break their hoodoo in global tournaments.  But now that I sit down and start writing, those doubts are starting to creep up.  

 

Form:  The South Africans have recently demonstrated their ODI proficiency by absolutely destroying the reigning World Champions, the undisputed benchmark team of cricket - the Aussies.  Sure it was at home, but even that takes some doing.   And if you want an away win of recent vintage against a quality team, you can point to their comfortable ODI series victory in India as well.   With an ideal warm-up series in England playing against the home team - another pre-tournament favorite - the South African squad is well placed to hit their stride once the tournament begins. 

 

There is a touchstone saying in American sports - "offense may win you games, but defense wins you championships".  While this one definitely applies to cricket, its also true that in ODI cricket, its the batting (offense) that is a pre-requisite in order to be a contender.  The South Africans have enough batting in their squad - in terms of depth, quality and fire-power. Looking at the Proteas batting lineup - it is chock-a-block with quality batsmen with high SR stroke-players, and seemingly check every box.  Are you looking for a classy opener who has the ability to handle top class bowling in unfriendly conditions?  Hashim Amla's your man.  A fearless thumper with skill and chutzpah to set the pace of the innings on a consistent basis?  Young Quentin with the punnable last name asks you to say hello to his little friend ;) - (Sorry, couldn't resist!)  Looking for a capable middle order batsman to carry the innings, handle pressure and also offer enough hitting ability to keep up with modern run-rate demands?  While many might point to Steve Smith or a Virat Kohli for the best middle-order ODI batsman in the world, Faf Duplessis makes a strong case with his recent performances, and has shown himself to be distinctly 'clutch' in almost un-South African fashion.   And then there's ABDV.  The undisputed Master blaster of white ball cricket, in any format, anywhere.   A guy who appears to have found and unlocked a treasure trove of batting 'cheat codes' and is consequently able to consistently produce innings of freakish quality and strike rate, seemingly at will.  

 

We've gone on a verbal gush-fest reviewing the Saffer batting lineup, and there's still JP Duminy and David Miller left to contend with.   This is a batting unit that can utterly devastate a team on flat tracks - fully capable of putting up 400 and winning games with the bat.   And we haven't even mentioned the lower middle order with the hard-hitting allrounders lurking down the order.  While Ben Stokes may have won the league MVP, Chris Morris has shown over the last couple of IPL seasons just how well he has developed his hitting abilities, and is a feared striker of the ball.   He would easily be batting much higher up the order playing for a different team.  And although Wayne Parnell has never lived up to the promise and hype shown during his u-19 days, he is still a capable allrounder who is no mug with the bat.  Even the likes of Phehlukwayo and Rabada have shown that they can't be easily classified as tailenders, and can chip in with key contributions.  Given the quality and quantity in this deep batting line-up, it is no surprise that the protea batsmen are free to take risks up front and attack the bowlers early in the innings, knowing that they have the likes of Duminy, Du plessis, ABDV who can easily bail them out in case of an early wobble.  This is a team that is clearly capable of going head-to-head, shot for shot against the other top batting units of the world - whether its the defending WC Champions, the defending CT winners or the re-booted home team.   There is no total that is 'safe' against such a batting unit.  

 

On the bowling front, Young Kagiso Rabada is rightly considered one of the upcoming stars of pace bowling, and all cricket fans are aware of Morne Morkel's pace and bounce.  Chris Morris is capable of bowling at around 90 mph as well, and while I'm not too familiar with Andile Phehlukwayo, he appears to be a handy medium-pacer with decent variety who can swing the ball.  Imran Tahir's legspin and Duminy's part-time spin offerings round out the bowling unit. Maharaj, Parnell and Pretorious are probably the spare tires for this tournament.  The Proteas have always been a team blessed with quality pace bowling resources, but for me, its the presence of a truly world-class leg-spinner in their team, that separates them from the other tournament favorites.  Imran Tahir has been a proven and effective wicket-taking bowler for the South Africans in white ball cricket, in all conditions.

 

Modern day ODI cricket has morphed into a longer version of T20 cricket, and the only way to prevent quality batting sides from annihilating you, is to keep taking wickets.  In Imran Tahir, the South Africans finally have a bonafide go-to option in the middle overs, one that is different from their historical pace bowling metronomes, and one that can succeed on the flattest of tracks.  A capable but slightly inexperienced pace bowling unit, bolstered by a top-notch wrist spinner.  A lot of teams would happily sign up for that.  Australia's attack looks menacing at first glance, but has a sameness about it, with a lot riding on Adam Zampa to carry the middle overs burden.  Similarly, England with its middling spin options of Moeen "part-timer asked to impersonate a bowler" Ali, occasional pies of Joe "My back hurts" Root, and Adil "My team doesn't trust me" Rashid is missing that middle-order slow bowling wicket-taker in their bowling tool-kit.  

 

Fielding - South Africans have consistently been one of the better fielding units in cricket, since their return to the fold from the apartheid ban.  And this team is no exception.  Apart from Imran Tahir, there is no fielder that needs to be 'hidden'.  QDK has demonstrated his solidity with the gloves, and the likes of ABDV, Miller, Faf are capable of spectacular game-changing contributions in the field.  

 

Why they will win - Easily in the top 3 strongest batting units in ODI cricket, capable of winning games by putting up massive 370+ totals, or chasing them down.  Bowling unit has the best balance out of the top 3 favorites - with the quality wrist spinner providing the decisive edge.  

 

Why they won't - In spite of all their strengths, individual and collective, on paper, the South Africans just can't get it done when it comes to crunch-time.   They are returning to the scene of their historic chokes - the land where Klusener and Gibbs so memorably lost their $hit, the choke-history and mental baggage is simply too much to overcome.  

 

TL;DR - South African is the most balanced team out of the tournament favorites - A Batting unit that outguns India, and can arguably match AUS/Eng;  and better equipped and balanced bowling attack than those 2 - thanks to the wicket-taking abilities of Imran Tahir.

[sandeep]

Eff this Kohli-Kumble Khaos.   Read the preview gaandus.   Brickbats and bouquets welcome.

 

Wrote it before the England-SA ODI series started.  But still stand by the claim that SA are the favorites among the favorites.   

 

 

@laaloo @Cricketics  Can you move this to the CT Preview thread or make this sticky?

Edited June 2, 2017 by sandeep

[CG]

Eff this Kohli-Kumble Khaos.   Read the preview gaandus.   Brickbats and bouquets welcome.

 

Wrote it before the England-SA ODI series started.  But still stand by the claim that SA are the favorites among the favorites.   

Sa batting is fragile depend too much on de Kock and abdv not in best of forms.Bowling is also one man army rabada,No death bowling.

[sandeep]

Just now, CG said:

Sa batting is fragile depend too much on de Kock and abdv not in best of forms.Bowling is also one man army rabada,No death bowling.

Batting is quite strong IMO.  You are under-rating Faf quite a bit - He has been quite good the last couple of years.  And don't forget Amla.  If he clicks, he can win games on his own.  

 

Bowling is definitely inexperienced, but not any more so than England.  And they definitely have a better spinner than England.    

 

 

[sandeep]

If Saffers play decent, there's no way they score less than 360 today.  400 is within reach as well.   

 

 I think Tahir will make the greenbros dance too.  

[WC2011INDIA]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

If Saffers play decent, there's no way they score less than 360 today.  400 is within reach as well.   

 

 I think Tahir will make the greenbros dance too.  

lulzwa...300 should be enough if they get there.

[sandeep]

Banjo Saffers sticking to their old chokey ways in CT.   And this is in England.   Reminds me of that game in SL where they choked after Gibbs retired hurt due to dehydration.  Yuvi took a couple of nice catches and the choke was truly on.  

[sandeep]

Man these saffers are mental midgets.  

[speedheat]

Most overrated side in the cricketing world, worst against spin, can't play non spinning spinners on a ROAD, Chokers will always remain chokers.

[sandeep]

21 minutes ago, speedheat said:

Most overrated side in the cricketing world, worst against spin, can't play non spinning spinners on a ROAD, Chokers will always remain chokers.

Its such a weird thing.  They keep finding new ways to choke.  There's simply no other word for it.

[Autonomous]

Sandeep Bhai I love that first line. 

[speedheat]

 

Its such a weird thing.  They keep finding new ways to choke.  There's simply no other word for it.

 

 

 

 

Its not even weird now, batting like a tail enders vs spinner like imad wasim whom a new comer like pandya smacked all over the place.

 

 

[sandeep]

Only South Africa could choke enough to give the Greenbros a chance.  And only the greenbros frailty in chasing can still keep the chokers hopes alive defending 220 in 50 overs in 2017.   What's it gonna be?   

[Mosher]

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Edited June 7, 2017 by Mosher