randomGuy Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 (edited) https://youtu.be/D4yNDzqU88w Edited May 1, 2020 by randomGuy
Autonomous Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 6 hours ago, randomGuy said: https://youtu.be/D4yNDzqU88w No.
kosingh Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 (edited) Finally Pakistan public is seeing the fraud that Imran Khan is Edited May 1, 2020 by kosingh
Laaloo Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Cant blame imran it will be very hard to find kaali daal and willing men during lockdown
randomGuy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Posted May 1, 2020 56 minutes ago, kosingh said: Finally Pakistan be public is seeing the fraud that Imran Khan is Antibody tests are suggesting Infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.6%. Various tests conducted in - Santa Clara County LA county Miami Dade County Ganglet Germany Newyork State For herd immunity, a young Pakistani population, and warm weather, total fatalities in Pakistan in percentage terms could be multi-folds lower than above. What Imran has done here is commendable in my view. Even though I hate him as a leader of terroristan. But credit where it is due.
Autonomous Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: Antibody tests are suggesting Infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.6%. Various tests conducted in - Santa Clara County LA county Miami Dade County Ganglet Germany Newyork State For herd immunity, a young Pakistani population, and warm weather, total fatalities in Pakistan in percentage terms could be multi-folds lower than above. What Imran has done here is commendable in my view. Even though I hate him as a leader of terroristan. But credit where it is due. Oh bhai herd immunity is bakwaas. Very few develop anti bodies
kosingh Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: Antibody tests are suggesting Infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.6%. Various tests conducted in - Santa Clara County LA county Miami Dade County Ganglet Germany Newyork State For herd immunity, a young Pakistani population, and warm weather, total fatalities in Pakistan in percentage terms could be multi-folds lower than above. What Imran has done here is commendable in my view. Even though I hate him as a leader of terroristan. But credit where it is due. What is the point of antibody tests suggesting infection fatality rates as low as 0.1% when we know that 0.22% of NYC's entire population is already dead from covid.
Autonomous Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 4 hours ago, kosingh said: What is the point of antibody tests suggesting infection fatality rates as low as 0.1% when we know that 0.22% of NYC's entire population is already dead from covid. Ajeeb theory hai. Herd immunity is rubbish. Pata nahin kiya hai yeh Imran Khan.
randomGuy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Posted May 1, 2020 5 hours ago, kosingh said: What is the point of antibody tests suggesting infection fatality rates as low as 0.1% when we know that 0.22% of NYC's entire population is already dead from covid. That IFR could vary from place to place.
randomGuy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) Some more data to chew on Gulf states (deaths/cases) : Kuwait: 30/4377 Bahrain: 8/3169 UAE: 111/13038 Saudi Arabia: 169/24097 Oman: 11/2447 Qatar: 12/14096 Total: 341 deaths / 61,224 infections = 0.56% case fatality rate (the infection fatality rate could easily be 10-20 times lower.) Almost 17% of the U.S. is age 65 and over. All of the GCC have 65 and over rates under 4%, down to under 2%. Climate may play a contributing role. Less deadly strain in warm areas? Edited May 2, 2020 by randomGuy
jf1gp_1 Posted May 2, 2020 Posted May 2, 2020 they have their numbers in control so sure his plan or lack of one is working
randomGuy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, jf1gp_1 said: they have their numbers in control so sure his plan or lack of one is working 1. Sweden, a cold country, with its evidence based approach and no lockdown (restaurants and cinemas open) seems also past covid peak and sprinting towards attaining herd immunity this month itself. 2. Iran antibody tests finds antibody prevalence in 21-33% of one province ...multi-folds more than previously thought. pointing to infection fatality rates of 0.08-0.12%. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.26.20079244v1%3Frss%3D1&ved=2ahUKEwirmM23y5TpAhXr_XMBHeVeBm8QFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw12WLEjkty3sRT-PBZWkaMu Edited May 2, 2020 by randomGuy
Clarke Posted May 2, 2020 Posted May 2, 2020 Sau baat ki ek baat, how many lakh dead are acceptable for you?
randomGuy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Clarke said: Sau baat ki ek baat, how many lakh dead are acceptable for you? This is an unfair question imho. But I will tell what my calculations suggest. For herd immunity, I think 0.02-0.03% indians will probably die. Which comes to 2.5-4 lac people. Should be on the lower side of the range if we are able to isolate (in households) and protect elderly for next 2 months while the virus propagates without lockdown. This is considering all factors - young population, density, warm weather, IFRs recorded at various places. Edited May 2, 2020 by randomGuy
Clarke Posted May 2, 2020 Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, randomGuy said: This is an unfair question imho. But I will tell what my calculations suggest. For herd immunity, I think 0.02-0.03% indians will probably die. Which comes to 2.5-4 lac people. Should be on the lower side of the range if we are able to isolate (in households) and protect elderly for next 2 months while the virus propagates without lockdown. This is considering all factors - young population, density, warm weather, IFRs recorded at various places. That is the most fundamental question faced by leaders of all nations and their advisers and should be faced upfront when suggestions of all sorts are thrown up. Almost everyone here would rather have the country take an economic hit until the lockdown and the curve is properly managed & better drugs & near future vaccines are available. This also doesn't have to mean that people have to die of hunger, essentials have to be made available and I'd rather take a 50% tax in the highest bracket for a year or two with food storage & essentials like soap and some medicines opened up for distribution than death creeping into every neighborhood. Edited May 2, 2020 by Clarke
randomGuy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Clarke said: That is the most fundamental question faced by leaders of all nations and their advisers. Almost everyone here would rather have the country take an economic hit until the lockdown and the curve is properly managed & better drugs & near future vaccines are available. This also doesn't have to mean that people have to die of hunger, essentials have to be made available and I'd rather take a 50% tax in the highest bracket for a year or two with food storage & essentials like soap and some medicines opened up for distribution than death creeping into every neighborhood. Every neighborhood? 0.02-0.03% is 2-3 people per 10,000. For context, presently, as per data, 0.77% of world population dies every year ...( 100% population has to die in next 80-90 yrs, do the numbers) 0.77% per year is 0.26% every 4 months. Assuming covid19 deaths all occur in 4 months, now see 0.02-0.03% in context of the 0.26% (normal deaths). Edited May 2, 2020 by randomGuy
Clarke Posted May 2, 2020 Posted May 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, randomGuy said: Every neighborhood? 0.02-0.03% is 2-3 people per 10,000. For context, presently, as per data, 0.77% of world population dies every year ...( 100% population has to die in next 80-90 yrs, do the numbers) 0.77% per year is 0.26% every 4 months. Assuming covid19 deaths all occur in 4 months, now see 0.02-0.03% in context of the 0.26% (normal deaths). Well yeah, neighborhood doesn't have to mean a row of houses. The park one visits, the shops in the area, the clinic a km away. They all are a part of the day to day life. I'm not gonna be debating the percentages being low when the crux of the matter seems to be human beings being reduced to absolute statistics especially when lakhs dead are accepted as a "suitable cost".
randomGuy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Clarke said: Well yeah, neighborhood doesn't have to mean a row of houses. The park one visits, the shops in the area, the clinic a km away. They all are a part of the day to day life. I'm not gonna be debating the percentages being low when the crux of the matter seems to be human beings being reduced to absolute statistics especially when lakhs dead are accepted as a "suitable cost". Then why you asked me in the first place? :) it is always cost vs benefit for every decision. One doesn't even have a way out of these extremely painful lockdowns ie. no exit strategy. one more thing one would consider is that younger people are going to die much less than older people. In Japan's Kobe, antibody were found in 400-800 times the people found confirmation through PCR test https://t.co/iPh22Usy7c?amp=1 If this is the same for India, already 1.25-2.5 cr people would be having antibodies...in other words, had the virus (and got immune) without even knowing about it... Edited May 2, 2020 by randomGuy
Singh bling Posted May 2, 2020 Posted May 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Clarke said: Sau baat ki ek baat, how many lakh dead are acceptable for you? The harsh reality of India is 7.5 lakhs die every year because of diarrhoea and 4.5 lakhs from tb every year so even 1 lakh covid deaths in year is nothing in india. And it's not Covid vs economy . It's going to be Covid vs other deaths. With longer Lockdown poor people will be hit hardest . They will face starvation , malnutrition , other diseases . So we need balance approach rather than just fanatically going after Covid.
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