Elections 23-24 NDA vs I.N.D.I.A (updated) -Poll Added

[rish]

4 minutes ago, someone said:

TN is about alliances and this is where NDA is growing but not yet reached the critical level.

 

If parties contest individually LS, BJP would comfortably be 2nd largest party of the state today. 
 

Also, TN politics shows the overall cowardice of Hindus all over India. The Stalin anti Hindu statements should have completely eroded the party, yet it is here to stay. Zero collectivity , full of amnesia are many Hindus… 

 

Listening to the people in UP talking after elections one thing is clear.

 

Hindus vote for betterment and muslims vote for who ever is against BJP no matter what the condition. 

[someone]

13 minutes ago, rish said:

Listening to the people in UP talking after elections one thing is clear.

 

Hindus vote for betterment and muslims vote for who ever is against BJP no matter what the condition. 

that’s incomplete analysis. They will foremost vote for Muslims parties once they have majority in any such constituencies. No Hindus can ever win there anymore. 
 

All other parties be it from BJP to Congress, are just stop-gap measures till they have sufficient numbers. The only difference with the non-BJP parties, whom concedes to them,  complete veto power for their support. Thus, now they are hypocritically vote for Uddhav Sena party…

Edited April 19 by someone

[someone]

2 hours ago, mishra said:

Listening at debates, looks like both INDI and NDA are down ie Neither is sure what has happened. 
 

9% srop is big. I can only speculate but this situation can only be because voters across party line didn’t turn up

another theory is this is fairer election numbers, as many bogus and discrepancies voter lists are filtered out.

 

nevertheless, compared to US elections, its always disappointing to see educated voters not voting in relative bigger numbers. They ought to be a vote bank themselves like in USA

 

 

[AuxiliA]

43 minutes ago, rish said:

The only way to capture TN is to start from small villages and towns fora few years before focussing on chennai

 

 

Only way to win TN is 

[coffee_rules]

On 4/18/2024 at 11:29 AM, Lone Wolf said:

Ghanta....  Pradeep Gupta (owner of Axis my India)  premier pollster has predicted downfall in NDA seats. 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/elections/lok-sabha-election/lok-sabha-election-2024-psephologist-pradeep-guptas-views-on-states-where-nda-faces-an-uphill-battle-article-12666681.html

 

 

He has backtracked and has distanced from this opinion poll. Low turnout in Bihar, 63% in Hindi belt. High in WB Mixed results so far. INII alliance can jizz along for now

 

 

Pradeep Gupta leading psephologist of the country clears the air on the viral #opinionpoll and also on #TamilNadu LS seats.
Rajdeep Sardesai shares his insight regarding the increase in BJP's stake in the 2024 poll.@sardesairajdeep pic.twitter.com/ZmHvhp0iRK

— Rahul Kanwal (@rahulkanwal) April 19, 2024

Edited April 19 by coffee_rules

[coffee_rules]

7 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

Today I learnt a new logic in Indian politics. Less turnout effects the incumbent and jeans opposition is winning. 

That has been the trend in the last few elections, nothing new. BJP has every reason to feel good about WB and TN and concerned about Bihar

[diga]

From Author Amish Tripathi 

 

Quote

 

The long peace and Global Order that emerged 1945 onwards, after the end of World War II, is clearly coming to an end. Wars are raging across many parts of the world. Old alliances are breaking down. The world is not able to come together to manage Global problems like the after-effects of a once-in-a-generation pandemic like Covid, unsustainable trade imbalances, debt crisis (including in the rich developed world, frankly), piracy issues in the seas, vast reduction in the costs of hi-tech weapons of war (which allows terrorists like Houthis to largely blockade the critical Suez Canal, for instance), the climate crisis… These are timebombs waiting to blow up on the face of the planet. And the world is unprepared to handle most of them. When a Global Order crumbles, there is usually a time of chaos, tumult and often, war. We are living in one such period of tumult & intense change. And how the world lands – on its feet or not - in this period, will decide the new Global Order over the next many decades, perhaps even a few centuries. At such critical times, one needs top-of-the-line leadership. The US had exceptional leadership during World War I & II. It led to the present World Order that emerged, and it was very advantageous for the US. At this critical stage in world history, we Indians need leadership that has intense motivation, competencies that are top-of-the-line, ability to work hard, capability to carry the masses along. And skills to engage with the world with firm clarity; with kindness when possible, but with steely resolve when necessary.

 

[ravishingravi]

2 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

That has been the trend in the last few elections, nothing new. BJP has every reason to feel good about WB and TN and concerned about Bihar

 

Nope that's just non application of mind and simplistic conclusion. Each election and each state has its own dynamic. Even state and lok sabha don't follow the same trends. % of women turnout is unknown. This is all bogus discussions before the results. 

[coffee_rules]

40 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Nope that's just non application of mind and simplistic conclusion. Each election and each state has its own dynamic. Even state and lok sabha don't follow the same trends. % of women turnout is unknown. This is all bogus discussions before the results. 

We will know if BJP ups the ante is n the next phase, something is not right. These seven phases are staggered to make booth level activity streamlined to their advantage 

[Lone Wolf]

8 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

He has backtracked and has distanced from this opinion poll. Low turnout in Bihar, 63% in Hindi belt. High in WB Mixed results so far. INII alliance can jizz along for now

 

 

Pradeep Gupta leading psephologist of the country clears the air on the viral #opinionpoll and also on #TamilNadu LS seats.
Rajdeep Sardesai shares his insight regarding the increase in BJP's stake in the 2024 poll.@sardesairajdeep pic.twitter.com/ZmHvhp0iRK

— Rahul Kanwal (@rahulkanwal) April 19, 2024

Don't know about that but he also deleted his previous tweet which had same article... 

 Mast double  game chal rahi

 

[Lone Wolf]

6 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

That has been the trend in the last few elections, nothing new. BJP has every reason to feel good about WB and TN and concerned about Bihar

Both sides so far claiming advantage in Rajasthan as well...  Something tells me that it might be the biggest battleground right now in the North. 

[randomGuy]

The biggest sign is the polling percentage increase of ~10% on Chennai seats. 

[Austin 3:!6]

BJP is losing or what?

 

Arnab Goswami was looking very quiet yesterday with his face all down. Even though exit polls are not out to the public till last phase, I am sure poling agencies let the TV channels know secretly of the numbers. Looks like he is aware of the exit numbers of 1st phase and was vividly dejected. Something was not right. Same was the case with Sudhir Chaudhary in Aaj Tak.

[cowboysfan]

20 minutes ago, Austin 3:!6 said:

BJP is losing or what?

 

Arnab Goswami was looking very quiet yesterday with his face all down. Even though exit polls are not out to the public till last phase, I am sure poling agencies let the TV channels know secretly of the numbers. Looks like he is aware of the exit numbers of 1st phase and was vividly dejected. Something was not right. Same was the case with Sudhir Chaudhary in Aaj Tak.

my contention is extreme low turnout is disastrous in hindi heartbelt.forget 400 they will be lucky if they get to their previous total.

[Lone Wolf]

27 minutes ago, Austin 3:!6 said:

BJP is losing or what?

 

Arnab Goswami was looking very quiet yesterday with his face all down. Even though exit polls are not out to the public till last phase, I am sure poling agencies let the TV channels know secretly of the numbers. Looks like he is aware of the exit numbers of 1st phase and was vividly dejected. Something was not right. Same was the case with Sudhir Chaudhary in Aaj Tak.

This is what BJP supporters are thinking/hoping as of now.  Tbh Phase 1 did had plenty of potential Defeat 

worthy seats.. 

 

 

Edited April 20 by Lone Wolf

[Lone Wolf]

Elon Musk has postponed his India visit....  US Deep state involvement can't be ruled out..  

[AuxiliA]

5 hours ago, Austin 3:!6 said:

BJP is losing or what?

 

Arnab Goswami was looking very quiet yesterday with his face all down. Even though exit polls are not out to the public till last phase, I am sure poling agencies let the TV channels know secretly of the numbers. Looks like he is aware of the exit numbers of 1st phase and was vividly dejected. Something was not right. Same was the case with Sudhir Chaudhary in Aaj Tak.

 

 

 

BJP will keep on losing every phase until the 4th of June when the democracy will lose instead. 

 

[ravishingravi]

Only thing worse than heatwave and water shortage will be to listen to social media psephologist for next 6 weeks. 

 

Fellow countrymen and pravasis love to have opinions on every issue. Be it opinion polls, phase 1 of elections, exit polls and then the final results and then post mortem. 

 

Most useless timepass that one can do. 

Edited April 20 by ravishingravi

[AuxiliA]

6 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

my contention is extreme low turnout is disastrous in hindi heartbelt.forget 400 they will be lucky if they get to their previous total.

 

Don't be fooled by the so called 'low turnout'. The turnout is actually greater than any election before 2014.

 

You have to keep in mind that the previous 2 LS elections (2014,2019) were extremely high pitched and saw an unprecedented voter turnout. 2014 was to throw Congress out and 2019 was to reelect Modi vs a charged up opposition. 

 

In 2024 the opposition has already given up on the ground and are active only on SM. Opposition Leaders/workers are not campaigning anywhere close to 2019 levels. You need high cadre morale to drag your voters to the booth.

 

Good chance that most of the missing voters are that of the opposition. Rampur, the most Muslim dominated seat in UP, saw the sharpest decline in voter turnout in UP. 

[cowboysfan]

17 minutes ago, AuxiliA said:

 

Don't be fooled by the so called 'low turnout'. The turnout is actually greater than any election before 2014.

 

You have to keep in mind that the previous 2 LS elections (2014,2019) were extremely high pitched and saw an unprecedented voter turnout. 2014 was to throw Congress out and 2019 was to reelect Modi vs a charged up opposition. 

 

In 2024 the opposition has already given up on the ground and are active only on SM. Opposition Leaders/workers are not campaigning anywhere close to 2019 levels. You need high cadre morale to drag your voters to the booth.

 

Good chance that most of the missing voters are that of the opposition. Rampur, the most Muslim dominated seat in UP, saw the sharpest decline in voter turnout in UP. 

could not rule this scenario out,let's see if this keeps up in the remaining phases  .