India - China : Bilateral News & Discussion

[Tillu]

Delhi Brics summit: Can the elephant and the dragon dance together?

 

Just think about it. The sequencing of the handing over of personal invites from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to both his Russian and Chinese counterparts to attend the Brics summit in New Delhi is a bit unusual and perhaps of some significance. Why was NSA Ajit Doval sent to Beijing to give the personal invite and interact with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi? Why could External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar not have been told to do the job? Jaishankar was, as a matter of fact, in Moscow around that time presenting the invite to the Brics summit to President Vladimir Putin. Jaishankar could have quite easily gone over to Beijing after his visit to Moscow and given the invite. What was the need to send Doval?

 

Next question. A few weeks back, we were told that Chinese President Xi Jinping would in all probability not be able to come to India for the Brics summit. And then suddenly, after the Doval-Wang meeting, we get news that Xi may be coming to India, and that too with a massive 400-member business delegation in tow. What then changed on the ground? Is some breakthrough of significance in Indo-Chinese ties, be it business or military, on the anvil?

 

Is this flurry of unusual diplomatese somehow connected to American interactions with both Beijing and New Delhi? Before we deep-dive into this possibility, let us understand the compulsions and priorities of both China and India, especially in their individual, different and difficult relationships with America.

 

The Indian dilemma in its relationship with America is this. We just cannot figure out the US of today under the leadership of President Donald Trump. We are not clear what America really wants from us and where this ‘defining partnership of the 21st century’ is headed. The relationship is like a Richter scale, never at rest. Peaks and troughs, peaks and troughs. Let’s take the positives for starters. President Trump has, on not one but many occasions, called Prime Minister Modi a ‘dear friend’. President Trump’s man in New Delhi — Ambassador Sergio Gor — is perpetually on ‘Bharat darshan’. He has visited important defence, civilian and even space infrastructure; met Indian political personalities and chief ministers of states on both sides of the aisle. And after every meeting, he has expressed optimism about the future course of India-US ties. The trade deal, he keeps repeating, is ‘nearly finalised’.

 

Now, if one were to shut out the white noise of actual geopolitics on ground zero and only listen to Ambassador Gor’s utterances on India-US relations, then we are in a rose-tinted, milk-and-honey phase between both countries. The truth, however, is a little more unpalatable and stark.

 

India has had the dubious distinction of being practically the first-ever country to come under the hammer of overbearing American presidential tariffs — the toughest ever in recent mercantile history. India’s arch-enemy, Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been serenaded by President Trump countless times on the world stage. The US is sparing no effort to choke cheap and plentiful Russian oil supplies to India. The H-1B visa programme, enabling and benefiting technologically skilled Indians seeking work in the United States, has all but been killed by the new administration. The list of aggressive American actions impacting India in so many ways, often adversely, is never-ending.

 

At the other end of the spectrum, China has fared no better. President Trump has often waxed eloquent about President Xi Jinping, but no one has any illusions that President Trump wants to put China in its place, disrupt its oil supply from Iran, and overcome American dependency on Chinese supply chains and imports of critical minerals. To say the Chinese are feeling the pain of a changed world order would be understating it. In short, President Trump, unlike any other American President before him, has shaken and rattled the world order beyond recognition.

 

The Doval visit to Beijing, then, might have been a first step to identify, discuss and agree upon some very limited areas of commonality between India and China to face up to a rampaging America. Call it a hedging of bets for both countries to face up to an America unrecognisable in its present avatar compared with the past. And no better place to firm up these understandings than the Brics summit, representing 45 per cent of the world’s population and 35 per cent of global GDP. And perhaps take the first, tentative baby steps towards a life beyond the US dollar.

 

We are, of course, in the realm of speculation and joining the dots out here. There is no official version of what could have transpired in the Doval-Wang dialogue. The cue that talks of some significance were held with a degree of success in Beijing is that the Chinese President may now attend the Brics summit in Delhi and Doval, an expert in security architecture, was picked over Jaishankar to initiate those talks.

 

So, then, the million-dollar question: an agreement on what exactly? Perhaps this question is best answered by what will never be agreed upon in the short run. There might not be a big-bang border breakthrough announcement during the Brics summit. The likely convergence could be no more salami-slicing of border territories initiated from the Chinese side, unfettered patrolling rights for Indian soldiers at agreed points, expedited and frequent border resolution talks at senior army levels and, above all, abundant caution for China not to repeat a Galwan to advance Chinese-style military morality.

 

India has publicly stated that the relationship, including the commercial side, would only normalise once the vexed border issue is resolved. But the above-mentioned agreement points could be a starting point for India. The fact of the matter is both countries can hedge their bets against America, perhaps even stand up to it, once the Americans discover that both China and India are not warring militarily and their trade and commerce have gone up exponentially. If that happens, there could be a softening on the American side towards both countries.

 

This, of course, does not mean India and China would stop shadow-boxing against each other. India will aggressively build maritime defence ties with Japan and other powers in the Indo-Pacific. It will pitch more deadly variants of the feared BrahMos missile to the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam and play its own game of encircling China in the South China Sea. China will, of course, go all out to arm Pakistan and Bangladesh against India.

 

And yet all this could change in the future if this tepid agreement between China and India at next month’s Brics summit survives and sustains the passage of time. India-China trade now is valued at $155 billion. The day and time this trade doubles and quadruples, China will have no choice but to let go of Pakistan and take India very, very seriously. That is the key to this imbroglio.

 

Till then, there will be no waltz. The two countries, in the meantime, have of course entered the dance floor and both sides are measuring each other up. The waltz is still some distance away.

 

(Juggi Bhasin is a veteran TV journalist, author and geopolitical commentator, with his commentary featuring in The CAA Show on YouTube. Views presented are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)

Edited September 6 by Tillu

[bsriharsha]

We have been bitten by China many times over. I won't trust them one bit. 

[Vickydev]

I read all that. I have just one question, Why the elephant and not the tiger? Its majestic and also our national animal..

 

As a bonus you also have the crouching tiger hidden dragon reference

[Tillu]

17 minutes ago, Vickydev said:

I read all that. I have just one question, Why the elephant and not the tiger? Its majestic and also our national animal..

 

As a bonus you also have the crouching tiger hidden dragon reference

 

Because everything moves at a lethargic pace in India. That's why the reference to Elephant and not Tiger which is agile and Swift.

[Vickydev]

7 minutes ago, Tillu said:

 

Because everything moves at a lethargic pace in India. That's why the reference to Elephant and not Tiger which is agile and Swift.

Damn bro you didnt have to be so honest. Brutal

[Tillu]

Interesting read.

 

Whose Malacca Dilemma Is It Now?

 

India's naval planners should price the China of 2026, not the China that first coined the phrase "Malacca dilemma" and then spent twenty years solving it.

 

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/whose-malacca-dilemma-is-it-now

[Lone Wolf]

54 minutes ago, Tillu said:

Interesting read.

 

Whose Malacca Dilemma Is It Now?

 

India's naval planners should price the China of 2026, not the China that first coined the phrase "Malacca dilemma" and then spent twenty years solving it.

 

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/whose-malacca-dilemma-is-it-now

It was well established that India cannot realistically choke Malacca like Iran has done with Hormuz without angering other regional powers like Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia especially.

It was a thought.  

Only country that had the naval capacity and diplomatic heft to completely Choke PLAN in Indian Ocean across various choke points is US Navy.

 

Very well researched article by Prakhar. Chinese are well ahead in the game as expected and have subsequently minimized the threat.

 

That being said Indian Navy can still harass and threaten PLAN in its own waters in the next decade and establish credible detterance through Nuclear Attack subs and Conventional AIP subs around Northern Indian Ocean.  More Naval airbases in Southern India can help as well 

 

We may lack this capability right now but it won't always be the case.

Edited September 5 by Lone Wolf

[ravishingravi]

14 hours ago, bsriharsha said:

We have been bitten by China many times over. I won't trust them one bit. 

 

Snake can never be a pet. But its often useful to have one in your farm. 

[bsriharsha]

43 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Snake can never be a pet. But its often useful to have one in your farm. 

more than 100 yards away, for sure. Never trust those snakes though

[zen]

India is not in China’s league yet … What India is good at is building an internal narrative about how good it is so many in India can feel good by agreeing with each other without actually being that good (as practically no one will care to oppose a statement like “India is a superpower)… It is a country where many equate being better than Pakistan as being a superpower. 
 

 

[jf1gp_1]

China is neither our friend, nor will it ever be our ally. Also, comparing us with China is foolish. They are maybe a couple of decades ahead of us. We need to figure out ways to live peacefully and if they can stop supporting Pak and BD, ill take that as a diplomatic win. 

[randomGuy]

With respect to china, i track the demographics like a hawk.

 

TFR is 0.9. In 2028/29 it will produce 6 million babies annually, that is less than pakistan.

 

The way the trend is, it will produce average 3 million babies in next 80 years. In 2100, the population will be 3*80=~25 crores.

 

Usa has realised this, that's why it has left china to its own. Jyada ladai jhagda kisi kaam ka nahi.

 

[singhvivek141]

India have to be cautious while dealing with China.

 

While its unlikely that China will wage a full scale war against India, (not because China is fearful of India but coz it understands a war with India right now is an economic and military risk which US can exploit and choke it in the South China sea).

 

But China will continue to bleed India using Pakistan as a proxy, Pakistan is one sector where China & US are on one page.

 

India need to aim to hit 10 trillion target as soon as it can. With our semiconductor, Rare earth and hopefully with Natural Gas/Petroleum in Andamans...our energy needs for next 30-50 years will be sorted. That combined with the military advancements will keep India a viable alternative for China.

 

 

[SinNombre]

Agree about 10T GDP target and also why the anti-India sentiment is at an all time high.

 

Historically Chinese people had no issues with India (they imported so much culture from Bharat) but CCP is one of the key drivers of using TikTok to push anti-India hate globally.

[ravishingravi]

Xi coming with 400 member délégation for BRICS summit. It seems to be major rapprochement. Dorval was there last month.  

 

I think India's trade deficit might be India's strength. Especially with current shambolic state of China's economy at present. 

[randomGuy]

15 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

Xi coming with 400 member délégation for BRICS summit. It seems to be major rapprochement. Dorval was there last month.  

 

I think India's trade deficit might be India's strength. Especially with current shambolic state of China's economy at present. 

Manufacturing and investment in India. We should target electronics manufacturing and EV/battery manufacturing.

[gattaca]

10 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Manufacturing and investment in India. We should target electronics manufacturing and EV/battery manufacturing.

Why would they do it in India ? Isn’t it undercutting their local manufacturing.

[randomGuy]

39 minutes ago, gattaca said:

Why would they do it in India ? Isn’t it undercutting their local manufacturing.

1..Higher local labour costs and shortage.

2. Working age population shrinking rapidly, long term planning

3. India's strategic location, closer to Europe, asean, Africa middle East...

4. Access to Indian market.

[gattaca]

8 hours ago, randomGuy said:

1..Higher local labour costs and shortage.

2. Working age population shrinking rapidly, long term planning

3. India's strategic location, closer to Europe, asean, Africa middle East...

4. Access to Indian market.

Aging population no longer holds most of it can be automated. China is ahead of world in AI and robotics. 
 

 

India universities doesn’t produce good semiconductor engineers like China does. There is a real gap in pass out vs skills in India. Not only semiconductor every industry is like that. 

Edited September 10 by gattaca

[Tillu]

6 hours ago, gattaca said:

Aging population no longer holds most of it can be automated. China is ahead of world in AI and robotics. 
 

 

India universities doesn’t produce good semiconductor engineers like China does. There is a real gap in pass out vs skills in India. Not only semiconductor every industry is like that. 

 

Automation is useful for repetitive tasks and doesn't solve all the problems. Most product designs keep changing frequently and they need to re-calibrate their machines to account for the new design changes. If there is any glitch in the design process you will be left with long line of defective products.

 

Anyway even if Chinese companies invest in India, we will most likely assemble the components imported from China.

 

We never invested in making the spare parts in India. If you take an air conditioner for example, even today we mostly import important components like compressor etc from abroad.

Edited September 10 by Tillu