Will South Africa win 2015 world cup?

[Harsh Thakor]

I believe this time the Proteas may well beat their jinx of not wining the coveted world cup title..History surely must some time come on their side.Remember how the jinx of a home team not winning the world cup was broken by Dhoni's Indian team in 2011.What is most important is not just head to head statistics and consistency but ability to peak at the right time to cross the barrier.Here a team's record in finals of tournaments have to be analyzed.In this bracket Pakistan in the past performed remarkably well overseas while Sri Lanka and India were better on home turf.India's I.C.C.trophy win in England in 2013 sheds light on their factor of adaptability.South Africa has the history of winning matches like an invincible racehorse but stumbling in the final bloc..It is one thing to be an epitome of consistency,the other to posess that crucial match-winning instinct like cometh the hour,cometh the man.It always faltered in knockout stages of run -chases.To me it lacked the killer instinct of teams like Pakistan or Australia or the match-winning flair of the 1983 Indian and 1996 Sri Lankan team.it is one thing consistently winning one day series,the other winning a world cup. Man to man the South Africa are best team of the tournament.If it had not been for previous history I would have made South Africa clear favourites.Imagine having a batting line up with Hashim Amla,A.B.Devilliers,DuPlessis,Decock,David Miller and bowlers like Dale Steyn Mone Morkel and Vernon Philanderer.Devilliers and Amla may be callsed with the top 10 batsmen of all time while Steyn may be the best of all pacemen.It also has a spinner in Imran Tahir.Howevever it's weakness is it's lack of depth in batting with a strong tail and absence of all-rounders.Maybe marginallly below 1999 unit.Howeverhas more match-winners than any team.What counts against the Proteas is History.South Africa lacks that crucial ingredient of match-winning killer instinct which a team nbeeds to win the world cup like Pakistan,Sri Lanka or Australia espalier.They have to work on formulating a strategy in run chases where they often falter.Above all they have to overcome barriers in the mind and build a more organized approach in run chases.It is mere temperament that cost them victory in 199 9semi-final or even 1996 and 2011 quarter final .No team deserves the coveted title more or has been as unfortunate not to win the world cup.South Africa has a jinx of not winning the world cup.What is most important is that South Africa reaches it's peak at the right time and not too early as in 1996,1999 and 2011.It should critically analyze it's errors in previous world cups.It should also self-critically asses it's reasons for defeat in recent series against Australia which they could well have won 3-2 instead of losing 4-1.I give the Proteas a strong chance of breaking their world cup jinx this time out.Martin Crowe thinks South Africa are the favourites to capture the cup because of their team balance. In 1999 it came within a whisker of qualifying in the semi-final which was tied and thus finally win the world cup.Without doubt it was the best team with all-rounders like Kallis,Pollock,Kluesner,bowlers like Alan Donald and batsmen like Cullinan and Kirsten.No taem had such depth nad all-round balance.However it just did not peak at the right time and in the final league agme and semi-final marginally lost teir for.In the league stage it was close to the best West Indian and Australian teams.Earlier in 1996 it was the best side but faltered in the quarter final against West Indies.In 1992 it played superbl;y but the wether gods intervened to thwart their chance of wining the cup by reaching the final man -to -man in 1992 with Wsessles,Donald Mcmillan Peter Kirtsen and Co the Proteas wee as good as anyone or arguably on par with England and Pakistan on paper.in 2011 til it was knocked out by New Zealand the Protas were again the best tem .However they displayed chinks in their armour aginst England.To me when they beat India they were the favourites to win the 2011 title. It must be said that in the last 2 years the Proteas have not displayed the same consistency as the team that went to The 1996,1999 or even 2003 0r 2007 world cups.Infact South Africa had some better achievements in the period between 1999 and 2003 and 2003 and 2007.However in the 2003 and 2007 world cups they hardly deserved to win being overplayed by team s like West Indies and New Zealand.So what is special about this present unit.To me it is the fact that they are not just clinical and predictable but also creative and tactical.In some ways it is better for a world cup not just to have a run of the mill team with remarkable consistency but one with match-winning flair on it's day.It is this quality which this p[resent South African unit posesses more than past Proteas teams.The players who will make the crucial difference are Hashim Amla,A.B.Devilliers,Dale Ste,particularly.Devilliers is arguably the most innovative O.D.I batsmen of all time with depths of creativity unsurpassed.On the other hand no batsmen has been more consistent or arguably ever more resourceful than Amla in one day cricket in recent times.He may not be flamboyant but I have never seen batsman with such an organized strategy in recent times or who can so consistently lay a base for his team in O.D.I.cricket.Dale Steyn can be equally devastating in the 50 over game and can create the impact of a tornado in every stage of a game.What this team has above all is a team psychologist,which will play a very crucial factor.Afterall South Africa lost the cup in the mind in past editions. I still feel that in terms of temperament Kepler Wessel's 1992 unit was better than later teams led by Hanse Cronje.Had the Protaes posessed the mental strength of the Pakistan 1992 or Sri Lankan 1996 teams they would almost certainly have won a world cup. I feel the most important barrier South Africa has to cross is in the semi-final.Every 2nd world cup it has qualified for the semis but again it has never won a game in a knockout stage.Thus this time one trend has to break.Thus this year we have to asks ourselves which trend will be prevail? The Proteas qualifying for the semi-finals in every alternative world cup or their jinx of never winning a knock-out game.I can never envisage Australia losing a semi-final which world cup history proves.They have lost 2 finals in 1975 and 1996.I am almost certain they will defeat the Proteas in a semi final.However if South Africa qualifies for the final I would back it to defeat it's old adversary.Personally I feel if South Africa wins the semi-final they will go on to win the final .Cricket is so much about adrelanin,Pyscholgy and morale.Ofcourse England lost so many finals but again remember the talent of the oposition England was pitted against in 2 finals.India or Sri Lanka may well overcome South Africa in the semi-finals.Somehow I still feel that teams like India and Sri Lanka are more adept to coping with the big match pressure of a world cup semi-final than South Africa.At a semi-final stage although the Proteas are superior in strength the mental adaptability for a big game is more prevalent in the Indian and Lankan teams.This is noticeable in past world cups where both teams have either won or qualified for the finals.India in 2003 and 2011 while Sri Lanka in 2007 and 2011 showed this.I would similarly back India and Sri Lanka in semi-finals against the Kiwis.I think it requires a special temperament to qualify for a final and many teams who can cross the barrier boost their morale .This can be testified by Sri Lanka in 1996 and Pakistan in 1992 or even India in 1983. Thus to me of South Africa makes the final,they will win the cup. Below I am reproducing 2 peices .One displays a positive aspect about the Proteas,the other the negative aspect.It is useful for readers to make an objective analysis.I feel Firdooz Moonda has forgotten Hashim Amla in her noticeable playesr and afils to recognize that though the 199 semi-final was tied the Proteas morally lost it as they had to win the game to qualify for the final. Below I am reproducing an article of Firdoose Moonda. from cricinfo Summary When South Africa first featured in a World Cup, in 1992, they had only played three one-day matches. By the time they played in their sixth tournament, in 2011, they had participated in 452 ODIs. In the 19 intervening years, South Africa were often one of the strongest sides around. They won almost twice as much as they lost, plucked series victories home and abroad, and produced players good enough to occupy top spots on international rankings for extended periods. But they did not have the one thing they wanted most - a major tournament trophy. Since the 2011 World Cup, South Africa's Test side has reached the summit and has had to come to grips with major changes, including the departure of Gary Kirsten, the coach who took India to the World Cup title, and the retirement of stalwarts Mark Boucher, Jacques Kallis, and Graeme Smith. Other teams may have been blown away by such change but South Africa only stuttered a touch before they emerged stronger. They retained their form in the longest format and developed their limited-over teams. Their new captain, AB de Villiers, and coach, Russell Domingo, have moulded the team by holding on to the best parts - consistency, hunger and a collection of quality cricketers - and added calmness. For the first time, South Africa's World Cup build-up has not focused on this tournament as the be-all and end-all, but has been seen as a step along the way. If it just happens to be that final step, nobody will complain. © ESPNcricinfo Ltd World Cup pedigree There have been other teams who have neither won the World Cup nor made it to a final, but none appear as scarred by the event as South Africa. Heartbreak has haunted South Africa since the heavens opened to deny them a place in the 1992 final and has then hounded them every event after that. In terms of personnel and potential, South Africa have been good enough to win every one of the six tournaments they have been to, but they have always been pushed back by pressure. Whether they have exorcised the ghosts of past tournaments will determine if they can fulfill their promise this time. X-Factor A top six that combines intent with enterprise, an arsenal of quicks equipped with the ability to move the ball and extract extra bounce, and a talented spin department means South Africa's strength lies both in numbers and in diversity. They have shifted from relying on a handful of players and now share responsibility in terms of runs scored and wickets taken. South Africa's leadership group includes those who have led in all three formats, which makes for an even spread of talent to take them over the line. Players in focus Dale Steyn Widely lauded as the best fast bowler in the world, Dale Steyn is often the difference between South Africa and the rest. Speed and swing make him scary enough but he also brings a snarl. In conditions that suit him, he can silence the most stoic opponents. And Steyn is only getting harder to face - he enjoyed his best season of one-day cricket in 2013-14 with 21 wickets at a staggering average of 8.09. AB de Villiers AB de Villiers' bat can be golf club, tennis racket, magic wand or swizzle stick - such is the range of his strokeplay. Along with classic cover drives and powerful pulls, de Villiers dazzles with reverse flicks and inside-out scoops and is often the spark that ignites the innings. He has hovered around the world's No. 1 one-day ranking for the last five years and captaincy has not dimmed his form either. In the lead-up to the tournament, he smashed the fastest century in ODIs, off just 31 balls in a match against West Indies. Imran Tahir South Africa have seldom been able to rely on a spinner until now. Imran Tahir has become one of their most dependable limited-overs' performers who plays both an attacking and holding role in middle overs. In 2014, he had the lowest economy rate of all all bowlers who sent down more than 100 overs, 4.31, and was South Africa's fourth-highest wicket-taker with 21 scalps. He has become key to controlling a game, even on surfaces which do not assist him and the variation he brings to the attack adds a dimension South Africa have previously lacked. Fact box World Cup performances 1975-1987: Did not participate because of sanctions 1992: Semi-finals (Lost to England after the rain rule was applied) 1996: Quarter-finals (Lost to West Indies) 1999: Semi-finals (Tied with Australia, who advanced because of group-stage win) 2003: Group stage 2007: Semi-finals (Lost to Australia) 2011: Quarter-finals (Lost to New Zealand) Squad AB de Villiers (captain), Hashim Amla, Kyle Abbott, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock, JP Duminy, Faf du Plessis, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Morne Morkel, Wayne Parnell, Aaron Phangiso, Vernon Philander, Rilee Rossouw, Dale Steyn Fixtures Sunday, Feb 15 v Zimbabwe in Hamilton Sunday, Feb 22 v India in Melbourne Friday, Feb 27 v West Indies in Sydney Tuesday, March 3 v Ireland in Canberra Saturday, March 7 v Pakistan in Auckland Thursday, March 12 v UAE in Wellington Game style A clinical approach has seen South Africa criticised for lack of creativity in the past but that is slowly changing. An aggressive top six and a piercing pace pack have added to their colour palette, but they will still want to stay calm at the crunch. Prediction Intense preparation, which included trips to both New Zealand and Australia ahead of the tournament, should see South Africa cross the group stages. Former players and fans believe this will be the tournament when South Africa claim the trophy but that's what they said the last time and the time before that and… World Cup stats South Africa have qualified for five World Cup knockout matches - two quarter-finals and three semi-finals but have not won any of those games. They have also not lost them all. A factthat's often forgotten: the 1999 semi-final was a tie. Gary Kirsten's unbeaten 188 against UAE in 1996 is the highest score by an individual batsman in any World Cup. If they were an actor Tom Cruise. Sleek, professional, consistent, and mostly charming but yet to win the big prize. Theme song Journey - Don't Stop Believin' Firdose Moonda is ESPNcricinfo's South Africa correspondentBelow I am reproducing a write-up from Shiva Jayaraman in cricinfo of invaluable value. Great all-round form, but South Africa face their knockout jinx Shiva Jayaraman 18 Share on FacebookShare on Twitter While South Africa have one of the strongest batting and bowling units going into the World Cup, their record against some of the top teams in the recent past has not been great 2.73 South Africa's win-loss ratio in non-knockout games of the World Cup - the second-best record after Australia. However, they are yet to win a knockout match from five attempts, having lost twice in the semi-finals and twice in the quarters. They tied their semi-final against Australia in the 1999 World Cup, but failed to make it through to the final having finished lower than their opponent in the super-six stage. 17 Number of matches out of 21 won by South Africa when defending targets of 250 or more in ODIs since 2013. Their win-loss ratio of 5.67 in such games is the best among all teams. However, South Africa have won only two of the 11 games in which they have been made to chase targets of 250-plus. Their win-loss ratio of 0.22 in these games is among the worst. 13 Matches South Africa have lost out of 23 against the top teams in pool A since 2013, one of whom they are likely to play in quarter-finals. Among the four, New Zealand is the only team against whom they have won more than they have lost. South Africa's record v top teams in Pool A, since 2013 Opposition Mats Won Lost Win/Loss v Australia 8 3 5 0.60 v Sri Lanka 8 3 5 0.60 v England 1 0 1 0.00 v New Zealand 6 3 2 1.50 v Pool A top teams 23 9 13 0.69 30 Hundreds by South Africa's top-order batsmen (No. 1 to No. 7) since 2013 - no other team has had more. India are second with 23 centuries, but have had 32 more innings from their top order. South Africa's batsmen have hit a hundred every 11.63 innings, with Australia being the next-best at 15.30 innings per hundred. 31 Century stands by South Africa's first five wickets in ODIs since 2013 - the most by any team. South Africa have had the most stable top order in the last two years with the lowest rate of collapses: their top order has managed to score 150-plus before the loss of the fifth wicket in 38 of 52 complete innings (73.1%). Zimbabwe have been the worst in this regard: their top-five wickets have managed to add 150 or more runs in only ten out of 30 innings (33.3%). 60.28 AB de Villiers' batting average in ODIs since 2013 - the highest any batsman with at least 1000 runs has averaged in this period. De Villiers has scored 2291 runs at a strike rate of 107.60. The next-quickest batsman with an average of at least 50 during this period is Virat Kohli, who has scored at 97.34. Including de Villiers, only five batsmen have scored 2000 runs since 2013, with Hashim Amla being the other South Africa batsman. Amla's nine hundreds are the most by any batsman in the last two years. Most runs by South Africa batsmen since 2013 Player Mats Runs Ave SR 100 50 AB de Villiers 47 2291 60.28 107.60 6 14 Hashim Amla 45 2143 52.26 86.62 9 8 Quinton de Kock 36 1486 42.45 88.29 6 4 Faf du Plessis 41 1400 36.84 82.84 3 8 David Miller 47 1046 36.06 93.06 1 6 JP Duminy 40 1043 37.25 82.77 1 5 27.72 Runs conceded per wicket by South Africa's bowlers since 2013 - the lowest bowling average among the top teams. They have two bowlers who have averaged less than 20 runs per wicket in the last-two years - Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander. While Steyn's 55 wickets have come at 19.80, Philander has taken 28 wickets at 18.96. 4.50 Imran Tahir's bowling economy since 2013; among spinners to bowl 200 overs in this period, only four have done better than Tahir. Rangana Herath is the only other non-offspinner among the five. The others are Saeed Ajmal, Sunil Narine and Mohammad Hafeez. 5.29 Tahir's economy in the last ten overs, which is the second best among bowlers to have bowled in at least ten innings since 2013. His economy in these overs improves to 4.43 when South Africa are defending targets. Steyn also does well when South Africa bowl second: while his economy in the last ten overs while bowling first is 8.16, he goes at only 5.27 runs an over when bowling second. Overall, South Africa's bowlers have been successful while defending targets, with their economy of 5.48 in the last ten overs being the best among teams since 2013. Their bowlers average 13.33 runs per wicket during these overs and take a wicket every 14.60 deliveries - the best among the top ten teams. 68 Wickets taken by Ryan McLaren in ODIs since 2013 - the second most by any fast bowler. McLaren hasn't made it to South Africa's World Cup squad and neither has Lonwabo Tsotsobe, who had a reasonable 2013, taking 35 wickets at 29.88 at an economy of 4.84 before injury kept him out. Most wickets since 2013 by South Africa bowlers in the current squad Player Mats Wkts Ave Eco SR 4/5 Dale Steyn 30 55 19.80 4.29 27.6 2/1 Morne Morkel 33 53 27.26 5.09 32.0 0/1 Imran Tahir 25 41 23.48 4.50 31.2 2/0 Vernon Philander 16 28 18.96 4.54 25.0 1/0 Wayne Parnell 18 27 25.03 5.30 28.3 1/0 Shiva Jayaraman is a sub-editor (stats) at ESPNcricinfo.com

[skindia]

Nz to beat them in qf

[vvvslaxman]

:(( I thought it would be a one liner and a poll Then i noticed who started the thread

[adi B]

not in my lifetime

[Scarves]

Could we have a spoiler tag for this guy?

[Cricketics]

They have the most "perfect" team for the world cup victory. Top Bowlers, bats etc. But somewhere, they lack the killer instinct. I think they will falter and won't win.

[bowl_out]

Too many threads... Already have one to predict World cup winner... Now one for every team :whack:

[Cricket_Hacker]

will be one sided world cup,Australia will bully everyone

[adi B]

Could we have a spoiler tag for this guy?

:hysterical::hysterical:

[BlueBee]

Goddamn! The OP :cantstop: :nice:

[tweaker]

SA have good batsman,good bowlers but I don't think they will win the wc

[nitinbwj]

got hammered by NZ..typical chokers rely too much on ABDV..who ALWAYS underperforms in alien conditions.

[brendan07]

The massive downgrade from Kallis to Duminny/McClaren, etc as the all rounder will hurt massively. People don't realise how important it is to have a bloke in your top 6 that is a front line bowler.

[Sonix768]

No chance. Duminy, Miller et all were hacks while chasing a big score.