Government Offers To Buy 200 Foreign Combat Jets - If They're Made-In-India [UPDATE Post 25]

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Quote

India needs new fighter jets, and the world's leading manufacturers are lining up to provide them.

The South Asian nation's government has sent letters to several companies regarding a new fleet of military aircraft, to be jointly produced with local firms. A potential deal, according to experts, could be worth up to $12 billion.

"India is looking at paying $65 to $80 million per aircraft for 150 aircraft," says Ben Moores, a defense and aviation analyst at IHS Jane's. The country faces an elevated sticker price for the fighters because government rules require most of the manufacturing to take place in India.

The requirement, which is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" initiative, is believed to have been a roadblock in India's most recent military aircraft deal with France.

That deal, which originally called for French company Dassault to supply the Indian air force with 126 Rafale fighters, underwent lengthy negotiations due to disputes over the local production clause.

Under the final terms of the sale agreed by India and France last month, India will only get 36 jets.

 

Other companies appear more than ready to fill the gap. U.S. manufacturer Lockheed Martin and Sweden's Saab are the leading contenders.

"We are prepared to provide a solution under the 'Make in India' program," said Saab spokesman Sebastian Carlsson, who confirmed that the company has received the Indian government's letter.

Carlsson touted his company's deal to supply Brazil with its Gripen fighters as a blueprint for a potential agreement with India. Saab is transferring technology to local firms as part of the deal, and is even training Brazilian engineers.

It's "an example of the way we like to do business," Carlsson said. He added that Saab was preparing an official response to India's letter.

 

Lockheed Martin (LMT) has gone a step further, offering to make India the sole global manufacturing hub for its F-16 fighter if offered the deal.

"Exclusive F-16 production in India would make India home to the world's only F-16 production facility," said Abhay Paranjape, Lockheed's national executive for business development in India. "None of our competitors can offer that."

Paranjape said the company, which has received and responded to the government's letter, envisions "a joint venture model with Indian industry as prime owner."

While India appears to have begun the procurement process in earnest, past instances suggest a final deal — especially of the magnitude being discussed — will be anything but straightforward.

"There might be a strategic eagerness for modern aircraft but the reality is that bureaucratic hurdles and state owned industrial self-interest outweigh the requirement urgency," says Moores. "If India can sign a deal and make it stick that will be impressive in its own right."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/25/investing/india-fighter-jets-lockheed-saab/

[sandeep]

I don't think India should go overboard buying expensive 20th century hardware.  Buy a few for sure, since we haven't upgraded in a very long time.  But now is the time to invest in next-gen stuff - AI-driven swarm drones etc.  These fighter jets each cost billions, and then the training and maintenance required is also billions.  Far more cost-effective and free of human casualities is the drone stuff.  Send a couple of hundred drones using scramjet tech, instead of a squadron of these "cutting edge" while elephants.  

[zen]

@sandeep I agree with general idea in your post above. The idea can be summed up using the evergreen BCG Matrix: 

 

 

Here:

• Dogs = outdated military equipment 
• Cows = current useful equipment
• Stars = latest equipment with relatively higher shelf life 
• Question marks = upcoming technology with a potential to cause disruption 

 

Ind has to liquidate Dogs, optimize Cows, Invest in Stars while also looking at upcoming technology .... Ind needs a modern force that relies more on technology and less on personnel. When it comes to personnel, Ind could focus on building more sophisticated forces such as commando units which has access to latest and greatest technology rather than having a force which is great in numbers but with inadequate equipment 

 

We saw what happened in the Gulf War. Iraq had more strength in terms of number of solders but was undone by the latest tech of its opponent. First step for Ind is to be able to have the cutting edge force that is able to effectively fight on three fronts - Western border, Eastern border and the oceans 

[Vilander]

This is death knell for LCA. Pathetic that multiple production lines for LCA are not envisioned, no firm orders over 150, no patience in inducting and upgrading but fervant foreign oem manuf backed pitch for inclusion of every advanced feature into a light weight fighter before FOC( AESA,refueiling pod etc). HAL inability> IAF apathy > death of LCA. There are 140? odd f35 without IOC if i am not wrong, there is 3 LCA after IOC may be 18 even after FOC. Frustrating really.

[vayuu1]

This is death knell for LCA. Pathetic that multiple production lines for LCA are not envisioned, no firm orders over 150, no patience in inducting and upgrading but fervant foreign oem manuf backed pitch for inclusion of every advanced feature into a light weight fighter before FOC( AESA,refueiling pod etc). HAL inability> IAF apathy > death of LCA. There are 140? odd f35 without IOC if i am not wrong, there is 3 LCA after IOC may be 18 even after FOC. Frustrating really.

Their is confirmed order for 120 lca mk1a, the thing is India need Tot,also one mustn't forget, that, by the time we have those 120 tejas, China will be fielding j20 and 31 and USA would be looking to introduce 6th gen fighter at prototype stage, so more lca would be obsolete , it was made to gain knowledge and it will mature through time plus, India 's topmost priority is fgfa and Amca along with AURA.

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[Muloghonto]

47 minutes ago, Vilander said:

This is death knell for LCA. Pathetic that multiple production lines for LCA are not envisioned, no firm orders over 150, no patience in inducting and upgrading but fervant foreign oem manuf backed pitch for inclusion of every advanced feature into a light weight fighter before FOC( AESA,refueiling pod etc). HAL inability> IAF apathy > death of LCA. There are 140? odd f35 without IOC if i am not wrong, there is 3 LCA after IOC may be 18 even after FOC. Frustrating really.

LCA has been botched by HAL. Still today, 5 years after the F-414 deal with GE, HAL still cannot make more than 16 LCA per year. The IAF doesnt care about made in India or made in Mars, they need fighter jets to guarantee air superiority. They cannot wait 7-8 years to get LCA into their ranks. I just don't see why you are blaming IAF on this.....

[Vilander]

10 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

LCA has been botched by HAL. Still today, 5 years after the F-414 deal with GE, HAL still cannot make more than 16 LCA per year. The IAF doesnt care about made in India or made in Mars, they need fighter jets to guarantee air superiority. They cannot wait 7-8 years to get LCA into their ranks. I just don't see why you are blaming IAF on this.....

This is done to death in DFI. basically for increasing production you need a bigger lot size than the 120 firm orders. 

[vayuu1]

LCA has been botched by HAL. Still today, 5 years after the F-414 deal with GE, HAL still cannot make more than 16 LCA per year. The IAF doesnt care about made in India or made in Mars, they need fighter jets to guarantee air superiority. They cannot wait 7-8 years to get LCA into their ranks. I just don't see why you are blaming IAF on this.....

That's coz making a jet engine is a very complex technology, things like gan based AESA, irst, etc are very complex, China even after so much money throwing and stealing tech has to buy engine from Russia, USA is now working on advent(Adaptive Versatile ENgine Technology )even that will time, making engine isn't a piece of cake.

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[Vilander]

16 minutes ago, vayuu1 said:

Their is confirmed order for 120 lca mk1a, the thing is India need Tot,also one mustn't forget, that, by the time we have those 120 tejas, China will be fielding j20 and 31 and USA would be looking to introduce 6th gen fighter at prototype stage, so more lca would be obsolete , it was made to gain knowledge and it will mature through time plus, India 's topmost priority is fgfa and Amca along with AURA.

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India is expected to have mig 29 and mirage 2000 and jag till 2030, AMCA and FGFA projects are in conceptualization stage still. But the challenge is this does not clarify why LCA is dropped and why 150 numbers of f16 or f18 are going to be considered. And i doubt f16 production line will be shifted to India for 150 ordre numbers.

Tejas is not a bad fighter, reams written on this in public. 

[Muloghonto]

7 minutes ago, Vilander said:

This is done to death in DFI. basically for increasing production you need a bigger lot size than the 120 firm orders. 

That is not true, HAL has said that their problem is local suppliers- we don't have enough people in India making aircraft nuts, rivets or stuff like that for HAL to produce faster.

 

5 minutes ago, vayuu1 said:

That's coz making a jet engine is a very complex technology, things like gan based AESA, irst, etc are very complex, China even after so much money throwing and stealing tech has to buy engine from Russia, USA is now working on advent(Adaptive Versatile ENgine Technology )even that will time, making engine isn't a piece of cake.

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Yes, but if HAL can't deliver more than a pathetic 16 aircraft per year, the IAF is fully justified to go and ask for a foreign deal. 

6 minutes ago, Vilander said:

India is expected to have mig 29 and mirage 2000 and jag till 2030, AMCA and FGFA projects are in conceptualization stage still. But the challenge is this does not clarify why LCA is dropped and why 150 numbers of f16 or f18 are going to be considered. And i doubt f16 production line will be shifted to India for 150 ordre numbers.

Tejas is not a bad fighter, reams written on this in public. 

LCA is not dropped. The IAF is committed to 120 LCAs. But HAL cannot make more than 16 LCAs per year, so IAF isn't going to wait around till 2023 to get 120 planes..

[Vilander]

13 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

That is not true, HAL has said that their problem is local suppliers- we don't have enough people in India making aircraft nuts, rivets or stuff like that for HAL to produce faster.

 

Yes, but if HAL can't deliver more than a pathetic 16 aircraft per year, the IAF is fully justified to go and ask for a foreign deal. 

LCA is not dropped. The IAF is committed to 120 LCAs. But HAL cannot make more than 16 LCAs per year, so IAF isn't going to wait around till 2023 to get 120 planes..

one HAL production line can not produce more than 8 an year is what the experts say.

 

Local development of fighter tech and having an up-gradable platform is of much higher consequence in the longer run, its needs to be persisted with to achieve independence. For instance saab griphen brings no value to India,  they dont have engine tech to TOT so no value add.

 

If orders are increased and firmed up then additional production lines can be incorporated by HAL, HAL can not make a loss and create LCA's through 3 or 4 production lines and mothball them in 1 year.

 

Its not all faults of HAL as it is made out in the media, besides media is often influenced by foreign OEM's, you would see new articles liek rafale is going to help with TOT for this that etc prior to big decisions and then once the decisions are made no news.

 

JF17 has been inducted in big numbers prior to IOC and they are upgrading them in blocks, thats the way to develop fighter jet platforms, its the way it has been always.

 

LCA will go the Marut way unfortunately because of Indian stupidity.

 

 

 

 

[Muloghonto]

Just now, Vilander said:

one HAL production line can not produce more than 8 an year is what the experts say.

 

Local development of fighter tech and having an up-gradable platform is of much higher consequence in the longer run, its needs to be persisted with to achieve independence. For instance saab griphen brings no value to India,  they dont have engine tech to TOT so no value add.

 

If orders are increased and firmed up then additional production lines can be incorporated by HAL, HAL can not make a loss and create LCA's through 3 or 4 production lines and mothball them in 1 year.

 

Its not all faults of HAL as it is made out in the media, besides media is often influenced by foreign OEM's, you would see new articles liek rafale is going to help with TOT for this that etc prior to big decisions and then once the decisions are made no news.

 

JF17 has been inducted in big numbers prior to IOC and they are upgrading them in blocks, thats the way to develop fighter jet platforms, its the way it has been always.

 

LCA will go the Marut way unfortunately because of Indian stupidity.

 

 

 

 

The incentive for HAL to invest in 3-4 production lines, is that if the LCA comes out fast enough, it will be marketed to other nations. Sri Lanka & Egypt have shown interest and Brazil is always interested in new and cheap aircrafts. 

I think you are failing to understand IAF's perspective. They need fighter jets *NOW*. They are not going to be satisfied with scenarios such as 'we could've defended India but we couldn't, because we didnt have enough aircraft, coz we went 'make in India' and HAL cannot do more than 16 per annum'. I am sure in such an event, we all would be like 'why the * did you not get foreign fighters ?'.

 

You cant blame IAF for this. but the blame lies solely on HAL. They have dilly-dallied way too long and HAL has even said in the past that they are happy building Apache and Dhruv for IAF/IA. Its to a point where people have commented that we should rename HAL to 'Helicopter Aeronautics Limited'.

 

 

[Vilander]

Besides if this becomes true. India will have across IAF and IN

 

Heavy: MKI ( Future Pak FA or FGFA)

 

Medium: Rafale,Mig29UPG, Mig 29 k, Mirage 2000, F16 or F18, (Future AMCA)

 

Light: LCA,Jaguar

 

To be decomissioned :Mig21,Mig 27

 

LIFT : Hawks

 

Its like a video game, select any fighter you like. But in real-life there will be lots of crashes as multiple platforms need multiple maintenance infra, no standardized excellence.

7 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

The incentive for HAL to invest in 3-4 production lines, is that if the LCA comes out fast enough, it will be marketed to other nations. Sri Lanka & Egypt have shown interest and Brazil is always interested in new and cheap aircrafts. 

I think you are failing to understand IAF's perspective. They need fighter jets *NOW*. They are not going to be satisfied with scenarios such as 'we could've defended India but we couldn't, because we didnt have enough aircraft, coz we went 'make in India' and HAL cannot do more than 16 per annum'. I am sure in such an event, we all would be like 'why the * did you not get foreign fighters ?'.

 

You cant blame IAF for this. but the blame lies solely on HAL. They have dilly-dallied way too long and HAL has even said in the past that they are happy building Apache and Dhruv for IAF/IA. Its to a point where people have commented that we should rename HAL to 'Helicopter Aeronautics Limited'.

 

 

Correct but as a business proposition its not viable for HAL unless IAF commits to buy more. Besides India is not USA  or France to be able to sell these to everyone, HAL's first and foremost backer must be IAF. International orders to vietnam and SL will be some measly 1 squad worth.

 

But the need for aircrafts 'now' was not satisfied when MMRCA was dragged for 12 years neither is it going to be fullfilled with this new tender, the point is mulog its a murky corrupt scandalous world of defence procurement that has caused this.  It would have made sense if India had selected f18 or f16 for MMRC and they had a squad or two by now.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Vilander

[zen]

40 minutes ago, Vilander said:

 And i doubt f16 production line will be shifted to India for 150 ordre numbers.

Based on what I read in the OP, it appears as if the manufacturing of F16 would shift to Ind (US phasing it out to probably focus on more advanced planes) to cater to not only Indian market but global as well 

 

"Exclusive F-16 production in India would make India home to the world's only F-16 production facility," said Abhay Paranjape, Lockheed's national executive for business development in India. "None of our competitors can offer that."

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, Vilander said:

Besides if this becomes true. India will have across IAF and IN

 

Heavy: MKI ( Future Pak FA or FGFA)

 

Medium: Mig29UPG, Mig 29 k, Mirage 2000, F16 or F18, (Future AMCA)

 

Light: LCA,Jaguar

 

To be decomissioned :Mig21,Mig 27

 

LIFT : Hawks

 

Its like a video game, select any fighter you like. But in real-life there will be lots of crashes as multiple platforms need multiple maintenance infra, no standardized excellence.

Thats fine actually. You ideally want a balance between too much diversity and too little diversity. 

Currently, these are our options going forward:

Mig 29, Su-30, Jaguar, Mirage 2000 & Rafale.  2 Russian jets, 2 French Jets & 1 British. 

 

We can add 1 or 2 more to this pile, because we don't want a scenario where one faulty part grounds half the fleet for inspection. But we also don't want a scenario where a dozen different parts and maintenance cycle overburden IAF.

 

[Vilander]

HAl is by no means not complicit in this ( i mean why cant they get the refueling probe done by themselves when they can design the fuel tanks themselves), but in this case wherein you need consistent parameters and FOC for a domestic fighter platform IAF can do better. Besides i wont be surprised if by mid 2017 ( apparently cohbam refueling probe is delayed now after cohbam radomes) IAF alters the parameters and asks for integrating meteor missiles into Tejas before FOC..matter of fact it would probably happen.

 

So its f16 in Indian colors, up yours PAF.

[Vilander]

8 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Thats fine actually. You ideally want a balance between too much diversity and too little diversity. 

Currently, these are our options going forward:

Mig 29, Su-30, Jaguar, Mirage 2000 & Rafale.  2 Russian jets, 2 French Jets & 1 British. 

 

We can add 1 or 2 more to this pile, because we don't want a scenario where one faulty part grounds half the fleet for inspection. But we also don't want a scenario where a dozen different parts and maintenance cycle overburden IAF.

 

No other air-force comes close in the numbers of platforms without commonality of parts, i am sure it will be a maintenance nightmare one they add LCA,Rafale,F16 or 18 and PakFA. Lets see. More toys to brag about with other nations i guess at the least.

13 minutes ago, zen said:

Based on what I read in the OP, it appears as if the manufacturing of F16 would shift to Ind (US phasing it out to probably focus on more advanced planes) to cater to not only Indian market but global as well 

 

"Exclusive F-16 production in India would make India home to the world's only F-16 production facility," said Abhay Paranjape, Lockheed's national executive for business development in India. "None of our competitors can offer that."

yeah i think its the production line, US would ofcourse have better maintanence facilities that it would keep running for its own use and for its strategic partners that have f16's.

[Muloghonto]

2 minutes ago, Vilander said:

No other air-force comes close in the numbers of platforms without commonality of parts, i am sure it will be a maintenance nightmare one they add LCA,Rafale,F16 or 18 and PakFA. Lets see. More toys to brag about with other nations i guess at the least.

PakFA is a lot further away. Expect it to be tested around 2025 and flying around 2030.

The other thing to consider is, the age of fighter jets is drawing to a close, the age of fighter drones is on us. I think 2014 was the first year that USAF inducted more drone pilots than aircraft pilots and has been the case since then.

So it also begs the question, till what point do we play catch-up on existing fighter jet technology.

 

[Vilander]

1 minute ago, Muloghonto said:

PakFA is a lot further away. Expect it to be tested around 2025 and flying around 2030.

The other thing to consider is, the age of fighter jets is drawing to a close, the age of fighter drones is on us. I think 2014 was the first year that USAF inducted more drone pilots than aircraft pilots and has been the case since then.

So it also begs the question, till what point do we play catch-up on existing fighter jet technology.

 

Yup UCAV's there is AURA  in project definition stage (lol) with ADA.. you can expect a MMRUCAV from 2020 to 2032 and then a inter governmental from 2032 to 2040 to buy from the US at that point, AURA will go the LCA way probably. Sorry for being negative.

And yeah FGFA was supposed to be far away, i think PAK FA is not. India is set to buy PAK FA from Russia like MKI with india specific modifications instead of developing FGFA. It is supposed to be quicker now.

[Muloghonto]

10 minutes ago, Vilander said:

Yup UCAV's there is AURA  in project definition stage (lol) with ADA.. you can expect a MMRUCAV from 2020 to 2032 and then a inter governmental from 2032 to 2040 to buy from the US at that point, AURA will go the LCA way probably. Sorry for being negative.

And yeah FGFA was supposed to be far away, i think PAK FA is not. India is set to buy PAK FA from Russia like MKI with india specific modifications instead of developing FGFA. It is supposed to be quicker now.

I thought FGFA was PAKFA modified with India-specific requirements....