Should the government end lockdown?

[randomGuy]

Rajiv Bajaj

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/crisis-started-by-coronavirus-spread-by-government-rajiv-bajaj/cid/1766929

[mishra]

1 hour ago, Stan AF said:

We've not even tested 1million. That is by no means mass testing. https://www.covid19india.org/

How many countries have? How can you say 1 million is high?

Edited April 22, 2020 by mishra

[mishra]

39 minutes ago, Pollack said:

Yes. High containment zones or hotspots are anyway major economic districts. So effectively no relief for our economy.

I feel once  enough districts are open, they will start tackling localities of Metro cities. this may start in May

Edited April 22, 2020 by mishra

[mishra]

39 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Rajiv Bajaj

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/crisis-started-by-coronavirus-spread-by-government-rajiv-bajaj/cid/1766929

Now he and his family can afford plasma therapy right in early stage itself so views have changed. Compare that with Tatas view where He is absolutely worried about Resident of Dharawi and Urges to confront this shame

[Stan AF]

11 minutes ago, mishra said:

How many countries have? How can you say 1 million is high?

We're a country of 1.3 billion. Even 1 million isn't a measure of mass testing. The figure I quoted itself is very very low compared to our pop.

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, mishra said:

Now he and his family can afford plasma therapy right in early stage itself so views have changed. Compare that with Tatas view where He is absolutely worried about Resident of Dharawi and Urges to confront this shame

That's not a good approach.

[kosingh]

14 minutes ago, mishra said:

How many countries have? How can you say 1 million is high?

Right now our testing rate is very low. Even lower than Pakistan. But it's made up greatly by our somewhat strategic response that has divided the country into small manageable units. 

[beetle]

12 hours ago, mishra said:

We are Into a phase where we catching asymptomatic case. I mean, I couldn’t help to smile, when they showed corona positive thief who ran away from hospital and then stole a motorbike and then again got caught in next city.  While corona patient of rest of world are shown on ventilators.

Our Tv news reporters are doing there corona test for purpose of news reporting while In UK, only hospitalised cases are being tested.

 

You cant do 1 billion test daily, but mass testing means when allmost 100% tests give asymptomatic or negative results. And india is very close to that

Problem with testing is that you can be testing negative today and catch it tomorrow from some random person ,surface the next day. 

The solution is gently getting herd immunity ( hoping the bcg vaccine and the temperature rise makes it easier) or a mass produced vaccine .

[randomGuy]

20 states of USA about to reopen

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by randomGuy

[someone]

Quote

If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual. We didn’t lock down the country to try to prevent 60,000 deaths; we locked down the country to limit deaths to 60,000 (or whatever the ultimate toll is).

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-case-against-lockdown-absurd/

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by someone

[beetle]

....

Edited April 24, 2020 by beetle

[chewy]

As more data and statistics are generated, imo, seems some regions/countries haven't been affected by covid-19 as much as the european nations and usa.

I think it's not just black & white, just hot weather, but mixture of several factors:

- Warm climates

- no. of people vaccinated against TB, use of anti-malaria drugs

- demographics (younger population)

 

Another factor often overlooked, is the worst affected cities/regions are popular tourists spot favoured by chinese (especially considering china was allowing their people to visit/return to foreign countries during chinese new year whilst all internal air travel in China was stopped:

- New York, London, Paris, Phuket, etc.

 

With a combination of above factors many African countries (so many have not even imposed lockdown), India, Pakistan, and especially countries who stopped flights from China in early January 2020 (Vietnam, South Korea Taiwan, Japan) have fared well.  

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, chewy said:

As more data and statistics are generated, imo, seems some regions/countries haven't been affected by covid-19 as much as the european nations and usa.

I think it's not just black & white, just hot weather, but mixture of several factors:

- Warm climates

- no. of people vaccinated against TB, use of anti-malaria drugs

- demographics (younger population)

 

Another factor often overlooked, is the worst affected cities/regions are popular tourists spot favoured by chinese (especially considering china was allowing their people to visit/return to foreign countries during chinese new year whilst all internal air travel in China was stopped:

- New York, London, Paris, Phuket, etc.

 

With a combination of above factors many African countries (so many have not even imposed lockdown), India, Pakistan, and especially countries who stopped flights from China in early January 2020 (Vietnam, South Korea Taiwan, Japan) have fared well.  

Cases per million population:

Qatar - 7500

Belgium - 6000

 

Deaths per million population

Qatar - 005

Belgium - 750

 

From you said, main factor in my view are 

1. Weather

2. Younger population

 

Qatar and India are similar.

[randomGuy]

Singapore: cases per million : 4000

Deaths per million: 3

 

Same reason:

Weather

Younger infected population (labourers from India/BD)

[randomGuy]

Ratio of deaths percentage:

Belgium ratio qatar: 750/5= 150

1. Meaning for every death in qatar there will be 150 deaths in Belgium

2. Reported positive Cases per million being more Qatar than in Belgium. Even then the death ratio is 150:1

[randomGuy]

 

IMO

1. Race is not a factor because in USA black people are getting infected but in Africa they are not

2. BCG vaccine is not a factor because in richer countries like Singapore and Qatar also there are less number of deaths

 

Simple two factors

1. Warm weather

2. Younger demographics

[chewy]

Yep, I would put Weather and Demographics as top two factors.

Also Belgium is one of the few countries reporting deaths which include outside the hospitals (mainly old people care homes).  I think UK started doing that. 

Most Euro nations have over 65 population at 20% plus, Italy is the oldest so no surprise it was worst affected.

 

but i think the initial virus 'load' imported by Chinese tourists during Chinese New Year has played just as important factor and can't be underestimated:

 

https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2020/01/top-spots-for-chinese-travellers/

Top 10 destinations for Chinese tourists during Chinese New Year 2020:

Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, the US, Philippines, Spain, and Italy.

The bolded countries implemented ban of Chinese flights by mid January 2020.

US, Spain, UK and  France continued to allow flights from China upto March, UK still allows flights from China. 

 

and for italy, from wiki:

Italy received over 3 million Chinese visitors in all of 2018.

I would say, most them during Chinese New Year, now even if a small percentage were directly from Hubei province, you are looking at thousands of Covid positive cases going around northern italy coughing and spreading the virus. 

quick google search:

Last year, the preferred destinations by Chinese visitors were the northern Lombardy region, whose capital is Milan, and the central Lazio region, whose capital is Rome.

Northern Italy was European covid-19 hotspot (also popular with other European tourists)

 

 

 

[chewy]

29 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

 

IMO

1. Race is not a factor because in USA black people are getting infected but in Africa they are not

2. BCG vaccine is not a factor because in richer countries like Singapore and Qatar also there are less number of deaths

 

Simple two factors

1. Warm weather

2. Younger demographics

Totally agree, race factor is bullsh!t propanganda played by white media (including western liberal media) indirectly implying genetics is a factor because disproportionately more blacks (in USA) and more blacks and browns (in UK) dying in their countries, whilst probably bigger factor is that disproportionally more non-whites are the front line workers in these countries (nurses, doctors, delivery guys, shop workers, pharmacists. bus drivers, taxi drivers etc.) and live in smaller homes, flats, are poorer etc.

 

Playing race card is the old and tested method of comforting themselves of making themselves believe and others believe of 'superior' genetics, whilst the truth is majority of the dead are white (probably due to old age and weather).   

[randomGuy]

1 hour ago, chewy said:

Yep, I would put Weather and Demographics as top two factors.

Also Belgium is one of the few countries reporting deaths which include outside the hospitals (mainly old people care homes).  I think UK started doing that. 

Most Euro nations have over 65 population at 20% plus, Italy is the oldest so no surprise it was worst affected.

 

 

Correct, in India 6-7% are 65 plus...ratio is in even more stark contrast in 70+ age

 

Had done some study on India vs Sweden demographics

Like, India over 70 aged people = ~2.5% 

Sweden = 15.*%

 

Because Sweden has no lockdown approach. I was thinking what if India didn't have lockdowns.

 

In Sweden, 90% deaths in 70+ age-group....Meaning 6 times more deaths in Sweden than India on demographics factor alone.

 

If herd immunity is at 70% , it is much easier( much easier than even a factor of 6) to hide the 2.5% in the remaining 30% (100-70) of the herd ,then it is to hide 15%, I would think.

 

Then there is the other main factor which is the warm weather.

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by randomGuy

[ravishingravi]

Yes, lock down is pointless now. Apart from 3-4 states, it should be opened up. Within a month ramp things up. We have to be strategic now in dealing with this. The vulnerable have to be protected. Enforce masks and provide free disposable masks, but get things moving.