Escalation at India-China border

[gattaca]

On 6/30/2020 at 2:04 PM, sandeep said:

I am no Modi fan, as some of the more enthusiastic Bhakts on this forum are well aware - but you cannot fault him for the current situation.  If anything, under this administration, the border road building has been prioritized even more.  Which is what led to the the Chinese realizing that the window was starting to close where they had a massively lop-sided tactical and logistical advantage on the ground.  That's why they are trying to 'lock in' maximum gains on the LAC.  

 

As much as I detest the CCP, and don't want the country's resources to be wasted/spent on conflict - I am actually very grateful to the stupidity of the CCP.  They have delivered us a very good wake-up call to our entire government, political establishment as well as our business folks.  This dumb plan to 'bully' India only for the sake of grabbing some "tactical' heights in barren landscapes, will shake India out of its complacency, and may even be a major turning point in policy-making.  I expect India to speed up its alignment with US/AUS/JPN on the foreign policy front, and really make a strong effort to prioritize manufacturing.  Supported with consumer demand and selective boycotts, local businesses will get a major opportunity, and hopefully long overdue reforms and infrastructure projects also move forward.

 

If only the Chinese had kept things going quietly, they probably could have made the same land gains, over a longer timeframe, without actively confronting India.

 

Turning a lazy complacent 'non-aligned' country into one that's awake to the threat of Chinese dominance is a major strategic blunder.  They should have boiling the frog at slow heat, instead, they turned the burner to high. 

 

Greed and Arrogance leads to foolishness - Confucious probably said that at some point.

May be they don’t want to. They feel US power is waning. US wants and only deals in money with its NATO nations as well. They have good understanding of DJT and he will allow China be China. They feel this might the opportunity to be become numero uno of world powers. China has enough financial and political power over Europe. The only problem they had was with US but it’s all business for US now. John Bolton book mentioned trump was ok to ignore India over China. Only India can protect it self. No one will help us. They do control Pakistan, Nepal and srilanka. We are surrounded  on all sides. A remember a India army rtd officer had predicted this long time ago. If you are attacked on all sides can India take it ?

[sandeep]

1 hour ago, gattaca said:

May be they don’t want to. They feel US power is waning. US wants and only deals in money with its NATO nations as well. They have good understanding of DJT and he will allow China be China. They feel this might the opportunity to be become numero uno of world powers. China has enough financial and political power over Europe. The only problem they had was with US but it’s all business for US now. John Bolton book mentioned trump was ok to ignore India over China. Only India can protect it self. No one will help us. They do control Pakistan, Nepal and srilanka. We are surrounded  on all sides. A remember a India army rtd officer had predicted this long time ago. If you are attacked on all sides can India take it ?

We are not "surrounded".  SL or Nepal being hostile to India is a Pakistani wet dream. Even the Bangladeshis aren't going to go that route.  

 

And the Pakistanis are so deep in hock, even if their greedy lootera military wants to fight with India, they have not left their country in any condition to realistically try this.  

 

We are just dealing with the scheming fat panda, who thought that they can make India blink - and to be honest, as far as finger 4 and other areas where they are already squatting - they may be right. 

[sandeep]

6 hours ago, mishra said:

A very good and balanced article. Looks like factually correct too. No wonder both India and China have issue in explaining this to their general population

https://fijisun.com.fj/2020/07/02/india-china-faceoff-was-it-inevitable/

no, its not "factually correct".  Throwing around concepts like the Malacca dilemma, while lacking the basic understanding to recognize that Gwadar and CPEC cannot ever offer any sort of realistic alternative for oil imports, automatically means that this "smart boy" analysis belongs in the trash can.

[mishra]

1 hour ago, gattaca said:

May be they don’t want to. They feel US power is waning. US wants and only deals in money with its NATO nations as well. They have good understanding of DJT and he will allow China be China. They feel this might the opportunity to be become numero uno of world powers. China has enough financial and political power over Europe. The only problem they had was with US but it’s all business for US now. John Bolton book mentioned trump was ok to ignore India over China. Only India can protect it self. No one will help us. They do control Pakistan, Nepal and srilanka. We are surrounded  on all sides. A remember a India army rtd officer had predicted this long time ago. If you are attacked on all sides can India take it ?

Lets be absolutely certain on one thing. For China, this fight is for trade route. For India, This fight is for its borders. Jaishankar has made it very clear that both nations have red lines and mutual interests. What it means is, India is saying to China that they wont have to worry about CPEC route from Indian side as long as we are allowed to secure the border.

 

However, Chinese do not think that they can control/sell pro China narrative in 1.4 billion strength democracy compared to 250 million strength autocracy. At the same time they cant afford enmity with 1.4 billion big nation.

 

Whatever way they want to sell this to their people and world, but imo, it was very calculated move by them, however what they miscalculated was courage and valour of Bihar regiment , Santosh Babu and his men simply turned upside down, all their board room planning. Just take one step back, Think about whole situation if 15th June Galwan battle didnt happened. By giving his life, Santosh Babu and his men, Gave India a lot of ammunition in current stand off.

 

The more I think, I feel Dadhichi has new name. Santosh Babu

[mishra]

18 minutes ago, sandeep said:

no, its not "factually correct".  Throwing around concepts like the Malacca dilemma, while lacking the basic understanding to

Edited July 2, 2020 by mishra
duplicate

[mishra]

20 minutes ago, sandeep said:

no, its not "factually correct".  Throwing around concepts like the Malacca dilemma, while lacking the basic understanding to recognize that Gwadar and CPEC cannot ever offer any sort of realistic alternative for oil imports, automatically means that this "smart boy" analysis belongs in the trash can.

Some thing can be argued, But for China, Its all about backup plan. CPEC is the backup plan for them. If you carefuly look at map of international map of India. There is Indian Map, Then on that there is dotted line for LAC between India china which cuts a segment of Laddakh but there is another dotted line, called LoC between India Pakistan. The LoC ends in J&K and doestn cuts the laddakh , ie there is a part of India in Himalayas where CPEC goes through. All it needs is a Infrastructure and will of GoI to demarcate that regions. China or Pakistan can not wriggle out of this Leh, to Karakoram is just couple of Years. Pakistan cand do anything about it, But China can. and this whole standoff is all about bringing India on a table to halt the infra build or get some assurance.

 

Santosh Babu screwed whole plan of Chinese

Edited July 2, 2020 by mishra

[gattaca]

2 hours ago, sandeep said:

We are not "surrounded".  SL or Nepal being hostile to India is a Pakistani wet dream. Even the Bangladeshis aren't going to go that route.  

 

And the Pakistanis are so deep in hock, even if their greedy lootera military wants to fight with India, they have not left their country in any condition to realistically try this.  

 

We are just dealing with the scheming fat panda, who thought that they can make India blink - and to be honest, as far as finger 4 and other areas where they are already squatting - they may be right. 

Its not about Lanka and Nepal retaliating its access to port and different places that can we can be attacked that is major concern if a war breaks out. 

[gattaca]

2 hours ago, mishra said:

Lets be absolutely certain on one thing. For China, this fight is for trade route. For India, This fight is for its borders. Jaishankar has made it very clear that both nations have red lines and mutual interests. What it means is, India is saying to China that they wont have to worry about CPEC route from Indian side as long as we are allowed to secure the border.

 

However, Chinese do not think that they can control/sell pro China narrative in 1.4 billion strength democracy compared to 250 million strength autocracy. At the same time they cant afford enmity with 1.4 billion big nation.

 

Whatever way they want to sell this to their people and world, but imo, it was very calculated move by them, however what they miscalculated was courage and valour of Bihar regiment , Santosh Babu and his men simply turned upside down, all their board room planning. Just take one step back, Think about whole situation if 15th June Galwan battle didnt happened. By giving his life, Santosh Babu and his men, Gave India a lot of ammunition in current stand off.

 

The more I think, I feel Dadhichi has new name. Santosh Babu

Which trade route you are talking about ? They occupied Aksai Chin and own POK. They already have it ?

[mishra]

43 minutes ago, gattaca said:

Which trade route you are talking about ? They occupied Aksai Chin and own POK. They already have it ?

Not just PoK, They own Pakistan. But, they can not sleep walk 1.5 billion Chinese into a nuclear war. So, No, they don’t and cant afford military aggression which may have reaction. 

They can not convince world to go to war with India if say India completes  unfinished LoC ( Pakistan one , check position of CPEC karakoram, Aksai Chin Siachen) without dropping a single blood. 
 

Leh was allways in reach but, DBO Road is designed by military with military objectives. For example, There is a lake along CPEC, just reach to that lake and get rid of bridge and put boats in. Easier said then done but putting boats in Pangong tso will give enough knowhow.

[G_B_]

Gwadar is a total flop. Fundamentally there is just no demand to use it. They have plans on paper for 150 berths. May as well burn money. What should have happened is they should have just created a port so Pakistan could import oil when Karachi was blocked as was case in 1999. I,e there was a military case for a port. This should have been a basic port. Instead it became like a grandiose mission of sorts.

 

Atleast Chabbar is actually used for Indian trade with Iran and central asia. I.e there is some basic supply and demand principles in place. So India has access to base in Tajiskistan via Afghanistan and can also trade with central asia keeping Pakistan out of the picture.

 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/chabahar-port-sets-record-of-loading-76-teus-from-iran-to-india/articleshow/76750215.cms

 

In time to come (maybe in a post Trump USA) I feel that USA will also use Chabbar to access Afghanistan (non military)

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/iran-chabahar-port-spared-sanctions-rare-cooperation-200620161933575.html

[Vilander]

There is an upcoming demographic bomb, India needs to keep track, do every sniveling and survive and hit when the time is right. China is a much bigger opposition this needs great courage and conviction like the heroic soldier who killed 18 chinese as he died of a dagger to his back. 

[sandeep]

1 hour ago, gattaca said:

Which trade route you are talking about ? They occupied Aksai Chin and own POK. They already have it ?

All this "trade route" nonsense is for folks who don't have an adequate grasp on geography or logistics.  The CPEC 'highway' is frequently disrupted by avalanches, and is by no-means all-weather.  It simply cannot scale up in logistical volume to be considered a viable "trade route".  

 

Gwadar is considered to be this tactical masterstroke - the place barely has enough drinking water supply for a few hundred residents.  And the average daily cargo weight that comes into Gwadar and reaches China, can be measured in grams, not even kilograms.  

 

 

[Vilander]

5 hours ago, gattaca said:

If you are attacked on all sides can India take it ?

They need ~6 million troops to attack and subjugate India over several years.  So Yeah india can take it and also give it back hard were it hurts. In world history a country the size of India has never went full mad. Indian population is pretty desensitized abt war deaths and there wont be much weariness, china has been sitting cozy.

[sandeep]

1 hour ago, gattaca said:

Its not about Lanka and Nepal retaliating its access to port and different places that can we can be attacked that is major concern if a war breaks out. 

Which "port" is going to host Chinese offensive naval capabilities?  Care to name one?  

 

Of course with a long coastline, peninsular India is vulnerable to attack, but it would require PLAN to operate thousands of miles away from homebase. The only realistic bases available to PLAN are Djibouti and Gwadar.  In spite of massive BRI loans, SL is not going to allow Chinese Navy to use its ports to attack India - they cannot afford to do that.  

 

And for all the high talk of Chinese influence over Nepal - India has a history with Nepal going back generations.  In a war-time scenario between India and China, the Chinese cannot dream of using Nepal against India, in any way. 

 

Let's not get alarmist.

[mishra]

6 minutes ago, sandeep said:

All this "trade route" nonsense is for folks who don't have an adequate grasp on geography or logistics.  The CPEC 'highway' is frequently disrupted by avalanches, and is by no-means all-weather.  It simply cannot scale up in logistical volume to be considered a viable "trade route".  

 

Gwadar is considered to be this tactical masterstroke - the place barely has enough drinking water supply for a few hundred residents.  And the average daily cargo weight that comes into Gwadar and reaches China, can be measured in grams, not even kilograms.  

 

 

See, i have allready given the analogy. Its not trade route. This is something which Chinese need in event of a war and sea blockade.
 

Now Pakistanis are smartest bunch in whole world and their military is best and most honest and not corrupt and serving the nation and no kickbacks happened to sell their nation to Iron brother

[sandeep]

Just now, mishra said:

This is something which Chinese need in event of a war and sea blockade.

We don't live in the 19th century or even the 20th.  

 

The nature of international conflicts has fundamentally changed.  You are not going to see major physical blockades of supply routes - that would require a national commitment of resources that is simply too expensive for the cost-benefit equation to work.  Conflicts now will be of the LAC type - salami-sliced fait accompli with advantage of surprise and limited objectives, or economic and multi-theater conflicts that will be fought out in board-rooms, server rooms and stock markets.  

[mishra]

21 minutes ago, sandeep said:

We don't live in the 19th century or even the 20th.  

 

The nature of international conflicts has fundamentally changed.  You are not going to see major physical blockades of supply routes - that would require a national commitment of resources that is simply too expensive for the cost-benefit equation to work.  Conflicts now will be of the LAC type - salami-sliced fait accompli with advantage of surprise and limited objectives, or economic and multi-theater conflicts that will be fought out in board-rooms, server rooms and stock markets.  

Trade route blackade can happen. And will happen. For example, Russians ships were tracked during Assad crisis. But it was Putins military vehicle, so no one had balls to say anything 

[Sgattick10]

China's imperialism, China the new East India Co. Last few months Shekhar Gupta's show cut the clutter has been quite educative..one good thing about him is he's a centrist, Pro India unlike the so called liberals or bhakts.

 

[randomGuy]

On 6/29/2020 at 8:47 PM, Clarke said:

NDTV reports that Chinese camp is 423 meters within India 

1. Open maps.google.co.in

2. Enter coordinates 34°46' N, 78° 13'E

in search bar and press enter

You will locate the exact location of clash site

 

Edited July 3, 2020 by randomGuy

[G_B_]

The big problem is that there is no LOC but two LACs

 

media organisations take liberty in reporting due to not knowing the exact location of the LAC of both sides.  There is no formal border.