Elections 23-24 NDA vs I.N.D.I.A (updated) -Poll Added

[Gollum]

13 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

'Won't dare' you live in a fool's paradise dear friend 

 

1. Modi won't leave Varanasi. UP has the bulk of seats and has religious significance for entire India. Modi a theth Gujrati speaker isn't exactly a northie, has bad Hindi pronunciation compared to a UP guy, yet he won UP and India over. Kanyakumari and Coimbatore have been won by BJP before. Stretegy not 'courage or daring' are the reasons why he doesn't contest from TN. Heck even a Rahul Gandhi, a proper northie, won in Kerala. 

UP is set, locked, secure. Even if Modi doesn't fight in Varanasi, still BJP will sweep. Because UP Hindus are based.

 

Modi fighting election in TN or Kerala can do more for BJP than in UP. There are important religious places all over India, not just UP. But big risk for Modi if he fights in Madurai, Ramanathapuram. Not just strategy, Modi also wouldn't want to lose his aura by losing an election. 

 

Rahul G won in a seat with 70% Muslim population, and endorsement/campaigning by the Muslim League. Rahul G wouldn't dare to take on Owaisi in Old Hyderabad with lesser Muslim population. 

13 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

 

2. Annamalai joined world's largest party bjp became state president got security under the chhatrachaya of Modi. Yogi was fighting when bjp had much smaller base. 

 

What point are you making here? Yogi is a great leader who is going to succeed Modi/Shah in national stage....I prefer if he becomes PM after Modi. You think I am anti-Yogi or what? I am just hoping Annamalai wins TN one day. 

Edited April 21 by Gollum

[Gollum]

8 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Wrong to compare Hemanta and Assam with any state...  He successfully mobilized masses after genuine concerns of illegal Sylhet Bangladeshis invading Assam..   Created a mass movement and cult following based on that. 

Yogi baccha hai uske saamne...  Bro might be corrupt but uska stardom hai Assam mai & in North East...  He impacted all the seven sisters and opened doors for BJP. 

Himanta is damn important for BJP, and the country. BJP's presence in North East can't be understated. 

Edited April 21 by Gollum

[randomGuy]

23 minutes ago, Gollum said:

'Future PM' if he wins TN for BJP. May take 15+ years and he will be in his mid 50s to 60s by then. Till then expect Shah, Yogi, Gadkari, Himanta etc. to be in the run. 

 

If Annamalai wins narrowly someday in future, he still won't get the future PM tag imho. So, one change - 'Win big in TN for the future PM tag' ... Anything less than 37 seats won't do. An abusive, morally bankrupt DMK won more last time iirc.

[Gollum]

1 minute ago, randomGuy said:

If Annamalai wins narrowly someday in future, he still won't get the future PM tag imho. So, one change - 'Win big in TN for the future PM tag' ... Anything less than 37 seats won't do. An abusive, morally bankrupt DMK won more last time iirc.

Anyway step by step. First let us increase voteshare, then win multiple seats, then form the govt, then win big. 

 

In 2014 we won one seat with 5.5% voteshare.

 

In 2019 we won zero seats, 3.6% voteshare. 

 

This time, we have cut ties with AIADMK which shows BJP doesn't want to play second fiddle any more. 

[randomGuy]

13 minutes ago, Gollum said:

UP is set, locked, secure. Even if Modi doesn't fight in Varanasi, still BJP will sweep. Because UP Hindus are based.

 

Modi fighting election in TN or Kerala can do more for BJP than in UP. There are important religious places all over India, not just UP. But big risk for Modi if he fights in Madurai, Ramanathapuram. Not just strategy, Modi also wouldn't want to lose his aura by losing an election. 

 

Rahul G won in a seat with 70% Muslim population, and endorsement/campaigning by the Muslim League. Rahul G wouldn't dare to take on Owaisi in Old Hyderabad with lesser Muslim population. 

What point are you making here? Yogi is a great leader who is going to succeed Modi/Shah in national stage....I prefer if he becomes PM after Modi. You think I am anti-Yogi or what? I am just hoping Annamalai wins TN one day. 

Wayanad has 41% Hindu population vs 45% Muslim.

 

Disagree on Modi fighting from TN will do more. Sorry but one can not be more wrong imho. Modi will win the TN seat where he contests, influences the entire state somewhat but it won't be enough to sweep the state. And he will have to leave UP. That would be stretegic blunder imho.

 

You and I are 90% on the same page on Annamalai and on TN voter. Just that I won't big up Annamalai as of today but hope for it in my heart without saying it.

Edited April 21 by randomGuy

[AuxiliA]

33 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Wrong to compare Hemanta and Assam with any state...  He successfully mobilized masses after genuine concerns of illegal Sylhet Bangladeshis invading Assam..   Created a mass movement and cult following based on that. 

Yogi baccha hai uske saamne...  Bro might be corrupt but uska stardom hai Assam mai & in North East...  He impacted all the seven sisters and opened doors for BJP. 

 

 

Himanta is a great political organizer (a mini Modi), but Yogi ain't no 'baccha'. Yogi kept fighting off both Atiq Ahmed and Mukhtar Ansari gangs in the Gorakhpur region for almost 20 years without the support of any govt. No Z or Y security either.

 

Those days even MP/MLAs were getting slaughtered in broad daylight in UP. He used to carry a licensed handgun by himself. Any other politician would have pi**ed in his pants and ran off. 

 

And when Yogi became the CM, usne inn sabko mittee mein mila diya, literally! 

 

[ravishingravi]

3 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Today Modi said Rahul will run away from Wayanad like he ran away from Amethi. Modi would have some ground feel otherwise he would never say this.

 

I think Modi has seen the internal tussle between left and Congress in Kerala. Kerala dynamics is super interesting. Can't make this up. 

 

Congress stands to gain from massive anti incumbency in Kerala. But Congress unit has weakened considerably in Kerala. BJP could be a beneficiary. 

[randomGuy]

2 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

I think Modi has seen the internal tussle between left and Congress in Kerala. Kerala dynamics is super interesting. Can't make this up. 

 

Congress stands to gain from massive anti incumbency in Kerala. But Congress unit has weakened considerably in Kerala. BJP could be a beneficiary. 

 

 

[rish]

7 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

Comments here remind me of 2019. Same wrist slitting amateurish analysis. This bogie of 2004 never will end. Read this thread. Same old same old. 

 

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122865229648371714?t=7P__NsQwrgfxEhH_1hPIaA&s=19

 

 

It is good .Keeps voters on their toes to wake up and go vote for BJP.

 

 Kangress bots are making a lot of noise on twitter.But when the voter is alone in the voting booth and sees the lotus and the hand the choice becomes clear.

[gattaca]

4 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

I think Modi has seen the internal tussle between left and Congress in Kerala. Kerala dynamics is super interesting. Can't make this up. 

 

Congress stands to gain from massive anti incumbency in Kerala. But Congress unit has weakened considerably in Kerala. BJP could be a beneficiary. 

BJP is already forming Hindu Christian alliance in Kerala. Ak Anthony son joined BJP. They need it to defeat Muslim league who vote in a bloc. RSS has more shakhas in Kerala than Gujarat but still couldn’t muster a win.

[randomGuy]

Annamalai off to Kerala, Karnataka for next phase campaign.great asset from BJP.

[coffee_rules]

10 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

Comments here remind me of 2019. Same wrist slitting amateurish analysis. This bogie of 2004 never will end. Read this thread. Same old same old. 

 

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122865229648371714?t=7P__NsQwrgfxEhH_1hPIaA&s=19

 

 

That patil guy got one election right in 2019 and has got most state elections wrong, preaches everyone.  If BJP should feel confident in WB and TN based on turnout, why shouldn’t others feel the bad when turnout is low. He predicts TN will give BJP more than 1cr votes based on turnout numbers , but tells all that polls can’t be predicted based on turnout numbers.

 

After Delhi and Karnataka polls, most opinion polls and exit polls gave BJP a thumbs up , some like Axis got it right. I won’t believe any polls or predictions until June 4.

 

A lot of RW pollsters have reported very low voting numbers in Bihar at booth level. RJD has worked on some castes which feel sidelined by BJP caste math and have worked more than BJP booth workers. Either the BJP workers are complacent or the BJP and JDS workers are not aligned. It is natural to feel under confident in Bihar

Edited April 21 by coffee_rules

[ravishingravi]

9 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

That patil guy got one election right in 2019 and has got most state elections wrong, preaches everyone.  If BJP should feel confident in WB and TN based on turnout, why shouldn’t others feel the bad when turnout is low. He predicts TN will give BJP more than 1cr votes based on turnout numbers , but tells all that polls can’t be predicted based on turnout numbers.

 

After Delhi and Karnataka polls, most opinion polls and exit polls gave BJP a thumbs up , some like Axis got it right. I won’t believe any polls or predictions until June 4.

 

A lot of RW pollsters have reported very low voting numbers in Bihar at booth level. RJD has worked on some castes which feel sidelined by BJP caste math and have worked more than BJP booth workers. Either the BJP workers are complacent or the BJP and JDS workers are not aligned. It is natural to feel under confident in Bihar

 

Neither the high turnout be celebrated nor the low turnout be a source of dejection. This is just killing time and sutta discussion. The same turnout discussion was happening in 2019. Same discussion in MP and Chattisgarh for last election. In 1999 bjp won due to low turnout and 2004 bjp lost due to low turnout. 

 

1) The turnout data by itself doesn't mean anything. Question is who turned up. Women, Dalits, Muslims etc etc. 

2) Base comparison should be last year excluding new voters. Does anyone have that information at this stage ? No.

3) Heatwave is going to dissuade everyone equally. Underdog who has almost given up and winner who is overconfident. 

 

Hence I say, this is a standard rona dona and intellectual m********n before every election. Fact is less 10% of elections actually throw up a surprise from a base case scenario. But I guess our love to analyze everything to death is what makes it fun but also ultimately a waste of time. In this country every blue / white collared has expert opinion on why Sachin is not performing well and what he should do. Thats the fun of it I guess.

[coffee_rules]

^^ still better than some people watching the mood of anchors on TV and predicting the outcome

Edited April 21 by coffee_rules

[cowboysfan]

so Congress supporters think the people who didn't vote were bjp voters.i this happens again on 26th then we can see a clear trend.

[ash]

Predictions for TN from BJP POV below. Based on talking to friends working with diff parties.

 

BJP alliance to win 1 seat

BJP to get 3rd place, more than Seeman . Big shots like Annamalai and Nayinar will get second place. 

 

What went well for BJP:

Alliance with PMK consolidated the caste vote, Anbumanis wife will win her seat comfortably . If they give her a minister seat, the alliance may continue in 2026.
 

What didn’t go as planned :

 

The Women vote which was historically anti DMK and pro ADMK because of Jayalalitha, went to DMK this time because of the social welfare schemes like Breakfast in schools and FreeBus passes. BJP was betting big on this.

 

ADMK did not roll over and give up like many expected. EPS put up a good fight, and will retain 2nd vote share. 

Entry of Vijay in 2026 further complicates things for Annamalai as all new voters looking for a change from Dravidian parties will vote for him. Many are saying it’s going to be Udhay vs Vijay in 2026 and with EPS also not giving up, Annamalai is running out of time. 

 

Edited April 21 by ash

[coffee_rules]

Modi says Congress will snatch your mangalsutra and give it away to Muslims. Looks like a change in strategy @ravishingravi

 

 

Congress wants to survey wealth / savings & steal from the average Bharatiya & then distribute it to its votebank . Imagine they will snatch your mother’s Mangalsutra & then give it to a ghuspetiya / infiltrator. Given Congress track record imagine how much they will also steal… pic.twitter.com/TesLTeaObi

— Shehzad Jai Hind (Modi Ka Parivar) (@Shehzad_Ind) April 21, 2024

 

Seems like Modi of 2009-13 timeframe 

Edited April 22 by coffee_rules

[gattaca]

1 hour ago, coffee_rules said:

Modi says Congress will snatch your mangalsutra and give it away to Muslims. Looks like a change in strategy @ravishingravi

 

 

 

Seems like Modi of 2009-13 timeframe 

Don’t think he says Muslims. He clearly says Maoists and left. 
 

edit he does say indirectly 

Edited April 22 by gattaca

[ash]

1 hour ago, coffee_rules said:

Modi says Congress will snatch your mangalsutra and give it away to Muslims. Looks like a change in strategy @ravishingravi

 

 

 

Seems like Modi of 2009-13 timeframe 

very clever to do it after Phase 1.

[cowboysfan]

3 hours ago, ash said:

Predictions for TN from BJP POV below. Based on talking to friends working with diff parties.

 

BJP alliance to win 1 seat

BJP to get 3rd place, more than Seeman . Big shots like Annamalai and Nayinar will get second place. 

 

What went well for BJP:

Alliance with PMK consolidated the caste vote, Anbumanis wife will win her seat comfortably . If they give her a minister seat, the alliance may continue in 2026.
 

What didn’t go as planned :

 

The Women vote which was historically anti DMK and pro ADMK because of Jayalalitha, went to DMK this time because of the social welfare schemes like Breakfast in schools and FreeBus passes. BJP was betting big on this.

 

ADMK did not roll over and give up like many expected. EPS put up a good fight, and will retain 2nd vote share. 

Entry of Vijay in 2026 further complicates things for Annamalai as all new voters looking for a change from Dravidian parties will vote for him. Many are saying it’s going to be Udhay vs Vijay in 2026 and with EPS also not giving up, Annamalai is running out of time. 

 

interesting. if you go by Twitter Bjp is set to win double digit seats and Annamalai to win by a lakh votes.