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Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)

ravishingravi

By ravishingravi
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IndianRenegade Grand Master

IndianRenegade

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, gattaca said:

lol. You are not up to date man. Frisco had posters in telugu to vote for Republican Party. 

I thought I said “traditionally”, also opinion polls among Indians suggested a shift but towards Republicans but but they still favoured Dems more.

coffee_rules Grand Master

coffee_rules

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

 


Didnt know Pierce was such a big Trumpster! One of guys said China has not invaded any other country, nobody corrected him. Tibet, Aksai Chin , India to name a few..

Edited by coffee_rules
G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, IndianRenegade said:

I thought I said “traditionally”, also opinion polls among Indians suggested a shift but towards Republicans but but they still favoured Dems more.

 

I think indians were 80 20 dem in 2020 and 65 35 dem in 2024. We need to see what breakdown was among sikh hindus n muslims. Suspect hindus and sikhs backed him more than muslims 

 

Rough breakdowns.

 

Trump had a swing even among black voers.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, pkmmamks said:

sir ji, every month there is a prediction likes this. 10 saal hogaye wait karte karte 

1991, 2002 and 2009 are official recession years for usa.

 

Credit cycle is 10 to 15 years.

 

A recession can be shallow. 

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, pkmmamks said:

sir ji, every month there is a prediction likes this. 10 saal hogaye wait karte karte 

If you understand fundamental of global economic setup, Each time there is a recession, US makes major structural change in global economic governance. However 2007-2008 economic crisis had one change. US did make fundamental Change like migrating LiBOR and other Banking stuff from London and removing importance of all other global currencies, But there was shift. China too did fundamental shift. Closely followed by India under Modi (remember Bank Account opening to every Household was of Indian funamental shift). So now , as @G_B_ mentioned, It will be shallow recession. But in reality Allmost all of Western economy has gone into no growth. WHat @G_B_ sees as shallow recession, I see as a prolonged NO growth period due to (Chinese/Indian) actions equivalent to Deep recession without impacting rest (China India)

 

If you still dont trust it , just chk indicators like Bond Yeild rate of China India Western nations and USA since 2007 and amount of US forex reserve held by them. Forex reserves have stagnated while Bond rate for China is miles better than rest of world including US 

Edited by mishra
rkt.india Grand Master

rkt.india

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, IndianRenegade said:

if mideterms happened today, Republicans would get trounced

 

 

Trump thinks tarrif are paid by those countries he put tarrif on. 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

Trump thinks tarrif are paid by those countries he put tarrif on. 

Not really. He knows exactly who will pay for it. He has panicked with US Governments Book of Accounts. His tarriffs have 3 components.

1. Balance the books ie debt servicing vs earning due to dollar as trade/reserve currency + Country's earning.

2. Weaken Global alliances specially Hit big players by using tarriff rate as leverage. 

3. Get them to transfer money in US as investment

 

etc etc

But above 3 are main

pkmmamks Veteran

pkmmamks

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, mishra said:

If you understand fundamental of global economic setup, Each time there is a recession, US makes major structural change in global economic governance. However 2007-2008 economic crisis had one change. US did make fundamental Change like migrating LiBOR and other Banking stuff from London and removing importance of all other global currencies, But there was shift. China too did fundamental shift. Closely followed by India under Modi (remember Bank Account opening to every Household was of Indian funamental shift). So now , as @G_B_ mentioned, It will be shallow recession. But in reality Allmost all of Western economy has gone into no growth. WHat @G_B_ sees as shallow recession, I see as a prolonged NO growth period due to (Chinese/Indian) actions equivalent to Deep recession without impacting rest (China India)

 

If you still dont trust it , just chk indicators like Bond Yeild rate of China India Western nations and USA since 2007 and amount of US forex reserve held by them. Forex reserves have stagnated while Bond rate for China is miles better than rest of world including US 

will there be a massive impact on the US economy in our lifetime? I doubt.

bharathh Grand Master

bharathh

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mishra said:

Not really. He knows exactly who will pay for it. He has panicked with US Governments Book of Accounts. His tarriffs have 3 components.

1. Balance the books ie debt servicing vs earning due to dollar as trade/reserve currency + Country's earning.

2. Weaken Global alliances specially Hit big players by using tarriff rate as leverage. 

3. Get them to transfer money in US as investment

 

etc etc

But above 3 are main

 

Trump has lied about pretty much everything. It is rare when he speaks anything that either not a half-truth or a complete lie. It is weird how he still has people believing in what he says about anything. 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pkmmamks said:

will there be a massive impact on the US economy in our lifetime? I doubt.

Unrelated but this is to test your own abilty. Can you explain why "(-1) X(-1)= +1" to a primary school class 2 or class 3 child using a real life example. Go ahead and try in your acquntance. If you can then you wont be needing big jargons to understand economic Governance.

 

Answer to your question is Yes. It has already impacted. let me deomnstrate it. When 9/11 happened whole world including China Russia aligned when Bush launched a war on terror in Afghanistan when not a single attacker belonged to Afghanistan. Do you think if something like 9/11 happens today, US will be able to attack Afghanistan without resistance?

 

Now on economic governance of so called world order which is changing or changed. Ask yourself simple questions and think yourself various aspects. I will just give pointers.

 

Question 1. WHy Gold is costly in whole world aka Universally?

Answer: People want it. Globally there is demand for Gold among individuals. So Gold is valued stuff.

 

Next question

Question 2: Why INR is in demand in India but Zimbabwean dollar is not in demand in Zimbabwe?

Answer:  TINA (There is no alternative) to the INR in India? While you can use US Dollar/EURO/Pound in Zimbabwe. 

 

Next Question

Question 3: Why USD is in demand in whole world

Answer:  No country is self succient. They all need to trade to get stuff from other country to fulfill needs of their people in various economic class. They can not rely on barter system. So they all have agreed to use US Dollar to trade between themselves. TINA (There is no alternative) to the USD. So they all must earn USD.

 

Next question. Now put your thinking hats on from here onwards if you are not studuent of economics: 

Question 4: Under what circumstances , Central Banks can print currency without impacting the demand?

Answer: Back it with Gold, Back it with Assets of the country. Back it with demand of currency among people. 

 

Question 5: Has Europe bypassed some of demand of USD by using Euro currency for trading among themselves?

ANswwer: Yes.

Footnote: Try thinking impact on USD. 

 

Now open questions

Question 6: Why Europe is allowed to do it? Racism? Bonhomie with US? Alliance?

Question 7: What should US do to ensure no other block of country follows the smae path as US? 

Question 8: Is it in US interest to ensure all neighbours in rest of world countries are in dispute with each other?

QUestion 9: How much will US Dollar be needed if every transaction between businesses of various countries is done instantly or countries just settle it among themselves on monthly or qurately basis. Think of it like "Khata System" umbrella backed by countries (BRICS System and many other Small blocks/countriles and blikateral understanding) among hundreds of thousands of businesses.

 

You can top i

 

Finally, IMO, As long as question 3 remains Yes, World order is intact, Value of Dollar will keep increasing relative to other currencies. On sidenote, when someone says say 5 trillion lost from US markets because it went down, where exactly 5 trillion came from and where did it go. How everyone keeps borrowng with everyone else in West and so on? Actually how dollar is getting generated? Credits by Bank, Cash Reserve Requirements blah blah blah

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, bharathh said:

 

Trump has lied about pretty much everything. It is rare when he speaks anything that either not a half-truth or a complete lie. It is weird how he still has people believing in what he says about anything. 

US cosiders BRICS as biggest and imminent threat to its hegemony. He wants India out of it. Everything else is BIG FAT diversion.

pkmmamks Veteran

pkmmamks

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mishra said:

Unrelated but this is to test your own abilty. Can you explain why "(-1) X(-1)= +1" to a primary school class 2 or class 3 child using a real life example. Go ahead and try in your acquntance. If you can then you wont be needing big jargons to understand economic Governance.

 

Answer to your question is Yes. It has already impacted. let me deomnstrate it. When 9/11 happened whole world including China Russia aligned when Bush launched a war on terror in Afghanistan when not a single attacker belonged to Afghanistan. Do you think if something like 9/11 happens today, US will be able to attack Afghanistan without resistance?

 

Now on economic governance of so called world order which is changing or changed. Ask yourself simple questions and think yourself various aspects. I will just give pointers.

 

Question 1. WHy Gold is costly in whole world aka Universally?

Answer: People want it. Globally there is demand for Gold among individuals. So Gold is valued stuff.

 

Next question

Question 2: Why INR is in demand in India but Zimbabwean dollar is not in demand in Zimbabwe?

Answer:  TINA (There is no alternative) to the INR in India? While you can use US Dollar/EURO/Pound in Zimbabwe. 

 

Next Question

Question 3: Why USD is in demand in whole world

Answer:  No country is self succient. They all need to trade to get stuff from other country to fulfill needs of their people in various economic class. They can not rely on barter system. So they all have agreed to use US Dollar to trade between themselves. TINA (There is no alternative) to the USD. So they all must earn USD.

 

Next question. Now put your thinking hats on from here onwards if you are not studuent of economics: 

Question 4: Under what circumstances , Central Banks can print currency without impacting the demand?

Answer: Back it with Gold, Back it with Assets of the country. Back it with demand of currency among people. 

 

Question 5: Has Europe bypassed some of demand of USD by using Euro currency for trading among themselves?

ANswwer: Yes.

Footnote: Try thinking impact on USD. 

 

Now open questions

Question 6: Why Europe is allowed to do it? Racism? Bonhomie with US? Alliance?

Question 7: What should US do to ensure no other block of country follows the smae path as US? 

Question 8: Is it in US interest to ensure all neighbours in rest of world countries are in dispute with each other?

QUestion 9: How much will US Dollar be needed if every transaction between businesses of various countries is done instantly or countries just settle it among themselves on monthly or qurately basis. Think of it like "Khata System" umbrella backed by countries (BRICS System and many other Small blocks/countriles and blikateral understanding) among hundreds of thousands of businesses.

 

You can top i

 

Finally, IMO, As long as question 3 remains Yes, World order is intact, Value of Dollar will keep increasing relative to other currencies. On sidenote, when someone says say 5 trillion lost from US markets because it went down, where exactly 5 trillion came from and where did it go. How everyone keeps borrowng with everyone else in West and so on? Actually how dollar is getting generated? Credits by Bank, Cash Reserve Requirements blah blah blah

 

Thank you explaining so deep.

 

On a side note it reminded me of how sometimes we had to fill our SUPW or history answer sheets by writing big and repeating same sentences worded differently 

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