ravishingravi Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Watch - The rise and fall of India's economy featuring Arun Shourie and Ruchir Sharma(author of 'The breakout nation') with Pranoy Roy. Thats right. Some economist feel the current 5% growth rate is not really the bottom, the growth rate will be down to 3% (the so-called Hindu growth rate). Ruchir Shah actually supports further currency depreciation.
randomGuy Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Ruchir Sharma actually supports further currency depreciation. The stagnation of economy (due to incompetence and corruption of politicians) results in lack of confidence from foreign investors. Hence they pull out their money resulting in Currency depreciation. In such a case, using our Dollar reserves (which is around $ 280 billion, and arguably at the base level for a country as big as India) might prove only a cosmetic measure with the more fundamental problems of stagnation left un-addressed.
Sachin=GOD Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Well yes' date=' thats true on the ruppee front. But that was not the only aspect I was talking about. BUt have to agree with you. [b']I still think, it will be a hung assembly, with BJP emerging as largest party. I think this is going to be one of the most unpredictable elections in recent times with quite a few shockers.
rkt.india Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Real story of American Dollar v/s Indian Rupee (Very Interesting Article MUST SHARE) An Advice to all who are worrying about fall of Indian Rupee Throughout the country please stop using cars except for emergency for only seven days (Just 7 days) Definitely Dollar rate will come down. This is true. The value to dollar is given by petrol only.This is called Derivative Trading. America has stopped valuing its Dollar with Gold 70 years ago. Americans understood that Petrol is equally valuable as Gold so they made Agreement with all the Middle East countries to sell petrol in Dollars only. That is why Americans print their Dollar as legal tender for debts. This mean if you don't like their American Dollar and go to their Governor and ask for repayment in form of Gold,as in India they won't give you Gold. You observe Indian Rupee, " I promise to pay the bearer..." is clearly printed along with the signature of Reserve Bank Governor. This mean, if you don't like Indian Rupee and ask for repayment,Reserve Bank of India will pay you back an equal value of gold.(Actually there may be minor differences in the Transaction dealing rules, but for easy comprehension I am explaining this) Let us see an example. Indian petroleum minister goes to Middle East country to purchase petrol, the Middle East petrol bunk people will say that liter petrol is one Dollar. But Indians won't have dollars. They have Indian Rupees. So what to do now? So That Indian Minister will ask America to give Dollars. American Federal Reserve will take a white paper , print Dollars on it and give it to the Indian Minister. Like this we get dollars , pay it to petrol bunks and buy petrol. But there is a fraud here. If you change your mind and want to give back the Dollars to America we can't demand them to pay Gold in return for the Dollars. They will say " Have we promised to return something back to you? Haven't you checked the Dollar ? We clearly printed on the Dollar that it is Debt" So, Americans don't need any Gold with them to print Dollars. They will print Dollars on white papers as they like. But what will Americans give to the Middle East countries for selling petrol in Dollars only? Middle East kings pay rent to America for protecting their kings and heirs. Similarly they are still paying back the Debt to America for constructing Roads and Buildings in their countries. This is the value of American Dollar. That is why Many say some day the Dollar will be destroyed. At present the problem of India is the result of buying those American Dollars. American white papers are equal to Indian Gold. So if we reduce the consumption of petrol and cars, Dollar will come down The Above Details are translated originally from Telugu Language to English by Radhika Gr. Kindly share this and make everyone aware of the facts of American Dollar V/s Indian Rupee. And here is a small thing other than petrol , what we can do to our Indian Rupee YOU CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO THE INDIAN ECONOMY BY FOLLOWING FEW SIMPLE STEPS:- Please spare a couple of minutes here for the sake of India. Here's a small example:- At 2008 August month 1 US $ = INR Rs 39.40 At 2013 August now 1 $ = INR Rs 62 Do you think US Economy is booming? No, but Indian Economy is Going Down. Our economy is in your hands.INDIAN economy is in a crisis. Our country like many other ASIAN countries, is undergoing a severe economic crunch. Many INDIAN industries are closing down. The INDIAN economy is in a crisis and if we do not take proper steps to control those, we will be in a critical situation. More than 30,000 crore rupees of foreign exchange are being siphoned out of our country on products such as cosmetics, snacks, tea, beverages, etc. which are grown, produced and consumed here. A cold drink that costs only 70 / 80 paise to produce, is sold for Rs.9 and a major chunk of profits from these are sent abroad. This is a serious drain on INDIAN economy. We have nothing against Multinational companies, but to protect our own interest we request everybody to use INDIAN products only at least for the next two years. With the rise in petrol prices, if we do not do this, the Rupee will devalue further and we will end up paying much more for the same products in the near future. What you can do about it? Buy only products manufactured by WHOLLY INDIAN COMPANIES.Each individual should become a leader for this awareness. This is the only way to save our country from severe economic crisis. You don't need to give-up your lifestyle. You just need to choose an alternate product. Daily products which are COLD DRINKS,BATHING SOAP ,TOOTH PASTE,TOOTH BRUSH ,SHAVING CREAM,BLADE, TALCUM POWDER ,MILK POWDER ,SHAMPOO , Food Items etc. all you need to do is buy Indian Goods and Make sure Indian rupee is not crossing outside India. Every INDIAN product you buy makes a big difference. It saves INDIA. Let us take a firm decision today. THIS is a Shout For GIRLS Don't IGNORE & Guys Tell Your Loved Ones, They are the Power Purchaser, Who takes care of HOUSEHOLD things,Who can Play a Big Role as well to SAVE OUR MOTHER INDIA we are not anti-multinational. we are trying to save our nation. every day is a struggle for a real freedom. we achieved our independence after losing many lives. they died painfully to ensure that we live peacefully. the current trend is very threatening. multinationals call it globalization of Indian economy. for Indians like you and me, it is re-colonization of india. the colonist's left india then. but this time, they will make sure they don't make any mistakes. russia, s.korea, mexico - the list is very long!! let us learn from their experience and from our history. let us do the duty of every true indian. finally, it's obvious that you can't give up all of the items mentioned above. so give up at least one item for the sake of our country! "WE all TOGETHER CAN SAVE our COUNTRY from crises" We would be sending useless forwards to our friends daily. LETS MAKE THIS AS A MOVEMENT. Forward this to all your friends to create awareness. found it on FB.
CG Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Falling rupee would not have been bad if we had a trade surplus.Actually it would have benefitted us but due to import driven economy it is hurting us.But tomm is crucial as if fed gives indications that it will stop the cash flow,Rupee and markets will crash.
ravishingravi Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 64.62. Downgrade on the cards. We are so f***ed.
Clarke Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Falling rupee would not have been bad if we had a trade surplus.Actually it would have benefitted us but due to import driven economy it is hurting us.But tomm is crucial as if fed gives indications that it will stop the cash flow' date=Rupee and markets will crash. Did that EVER happen post independence ?
adi B Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Falling rupee would not have been bad if we had a trade surplus.Actually it would have benefitted us but due to import driven economy it is hurting us.But tomm is crucial as if fed gives indications that it will stop the cash flow' date='Rupee and markets will crash.[/quote'] trade surplus and india? here is an example China is India's largest trade partner. But India runs a large trade deficit of $29 billion with China. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reportedly told his Chinese counterpart, Li Keqiang, at their recent meeting that this "needs to be addressed." But as an economist he surely knows it is wrong to aim for balanced trade with each trading partner.
randomGuy Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 We import oil for middle-east, aeroplanes from USA, smart phones and other electronics stuff from china. Where is the self-reliance? Learn from Gujarat - branding, vibrant Gujarat summits, giving concessions and environment to industry for them to flourish. Be proactive, be, passionate, be open to new ideas, be innovative....we don't see any of this.
Clarke Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 We import oil for middle-east' date=' aeroplanes from USA, smart phones and other electronics stuff from china. Where is the self-reliance? Learn from Gujarat - branding, vibrant Gujarat summits, giving concessions and environment to industry for them to flourish. Be proactive, be, passionate, be open to new ideas, be innovative....we don't see any of this.[/quote'] No Gujarat model, Hitler cannot be praised for autobahns & VW :orderorder: How about the secular UP model ? Netaji as PM and Akhilesh as deputy :woot:
randomGuy Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 No Gujarat model, Hitler cannot be praised for autobahns & VW :orderorder: How about the secular UP model ? Netaji as PM and Akhilesh as deputy :woot: Yeh BC saare desh ko religion, region, caste lines main divide karke apne *assets* create karenge....never mind the "asset creation" in economic terms that this country actually requires.:icflove:
randomGuy Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Its a joke that this country with a huge human capital of 1.2 billion people with median age of 25-30 years is not already leading the world in this age of information, but actually is heavily reliant on foreign investment and even that, its not able to attract, suppressing the enormous potential of growth of both GDP and HDI thats still to happen.
Crookbond Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Check this interesting analysis out on the Indian Rupee http://www.newslaundry.com/2013/08/hawala-logic/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ravishingravi Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Check this interesting analysis out on the Indian Rupee http://www.newslaundry.com/2013/08/hawala-logic/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It is an open secret. Always has been. But this time the impact is not just this factor.
surajmal Posted August 21, 2013 Posted August 21, 2013 Indian elections are bought?! Oh but secularism, so yeh sab chalta hai.
ravishingravi Posted August 22, 2013 Posted August 22, 2013 Govt's policies a disaster, rating downgrade likely: Marc Faber Swiss investor and editor of the 'Gloom Boom & Doom' report Marc Faber says the policies adopted by the Indian government to tackle the current economic crisis have taken a toll on both equity and bond markets. Faber, who is the managing director at Marc Faber Limited, says the economic polices of the government have been a "disaster" by and large. "Over the long term, I am negative about the rupee. The rupee is weak because India has higher inflation than other countries, and the problem is that a weak rupee can lead to even higher inflation and India's ratings downgrade is quite likely,'' he said in an interview to ET in an exclusive interview. Edited excerpts: Global investors have pulled out over $11 billion from both equity and debt markets in the past three months. Do you think there are still some opportunities? Over the past few years, investors have built exaggerated, unrealistic expectations about returns from the Indian markets. If you look at India's macro economy, it has not done well compared to China. But on the corporate level, many Indian companies have done well and have rewarded shareholders. If you ask me, India as an investment destination, there are still opportunities. I have maintained my outlook that in 2013 the markets will not perform well because they had a strong rebound from the 2008 lows to hit the 2011 peak. After that, economic conditions began to disappoint investors, but it has not disappointed me because I expected it to worsen. Why are you so disappointed with the Indian government? I am not very optimistic about India on the macroeconomic front, and it has to do with the government policies. The economic policies of the government are by and large a disaster; the government could have done more. The government in India, through its incredible bureaucracy, has retarded economic growth in the last 20-30 years by at least 3% per annum in real terms. It's a miracle that the Indian economy has performed well, considering the quality of its government. What would you suggest the government to do to tackle the present economic crisis? The Indian government has created a huge problem, as it has under-reported the rate of increase in the cost-of-living or inflation. And by not measuring inflation properly, the government has kept interest rates negative in real terms. What the government can do or should do is, though it can be painful, it should increase rates substantially, stabilise the rupee. To increase rates would imply lot of pain in the economy temporarily, but in the long term, it would be desirable. The rupee has fallen over 15% so far this year and is hitting new lows every passing day. What is your outlook on the currency? The falling currency is not the problem; it is the symptom of the problem. It is like fever, which is just a symptom of a disease and not the disease itself. The currency depreciation is the symptom of poor balance budget and excessive consumption, which is reflected in the trade and current account deficit. If there is an increase in the short-term interest rates, where there is real return of rupee deposits, then the rupee will bottom out in the near term. However, over the long term, I am negative about the rupee. What are the chances of India's ratings downgrade? It is quite likely. Indian companies have fair amount of dollar liabilities and the weakness of the rupee only increases the interest payments. Yes, it's quite likely that the ratings downgrade will happen. But the markets have discounting mechanism and they have discounted it. How are you positioned in Indian stock markets? I have very substantial positioning in India. There are some very good companies in India, though the macro economic conditions are not very favourable. A very desirable and attractive sector is the consumption sector. The largest weight of India Capital Fund is in banks and financials, as they are very cheap and inexpensive; however, they are likely to remain inexpensive for quite some time. What is your outlook on Indian equities? The rupee is down nearly 50% in the last three years. Stock markets are down only 12% to 15% from their peak in rupee terms. Thus, in dollar terms, India is in a bear market as it has fallen nearly 60%. But I don't think the Indian stock markets will fall to that extent in rupee terms. What are the chances of the US Fed Reserve tapering its asset-buying programme? I think capital flows have moved out of emerging economies because the US equity markets have started performing well over the last one year. Investors must realise that the yield on US 10-year treasury notes bottomed in July 2012 at 1.43%, and after that it moved to 2.88%. In my view, the asset purchase programme of the Fed has been a complete disaster. The US economy is still weak, otherwise McDonalds and Walmart would have reported much favourable results. Given the weakness in the economy and employment, and given the frame of mind of Fed members, most of them are extremely dovish. I think there will be no tapering of bond-buying programme. And I won't be surprised if in a year's time the Fed increases asset purchases. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/govts-policies-a-disaster-rating-downgrade-likely-marc-faber/articleshow/21966908.cms?curpg=2
surajmal Posted August 22, 2013 Posted August 22, 2013 India looking at leasing gold bought from IMF :hatsoff: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/india-looking-at-leasing-gold-bought-from-imf/article5042403.ece Back to the 80s.
diga Posted August 22, 2013 Posted August 22, 2013 Check this interesting analysis out on the Indian Rupee http://www.newslaundry.com/2013/08/hawala-logic/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Is the rupee depreciation artificial? seems like the politicians are preparing for elections.. they want higher rates for the black money stashed abroad..
Detonator Posted August 22, 2013 Posted August 22, 2013 Is the rupee depreciation artificial? seems like the politicians are preparing for elections.. they want higher rates for the black money stashed abroad.. I recommend to watch a documantry called Zeitgeist. They explain a lot abt mortgages and the way of printing money out of their *** by the govts.
Crookbond Posted August 22, 2013 Posted August 22, 2013 Is the rupee depreciation artificial? seems like the politicians are preparing for elections.. they want higher rates for the black money stashed abroad.. There is a correlation but I'm unsure about causation. Most emerging market currencies are down btw.
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