Is USA the new epicenter of Corona Virus

[Autonomous]

16 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Apparently US daily testing capacity has crossed 100,000 per day.  Some 'experts' are saying they need to be able to test a million per day to declare 'safe zones' and resume 'normal' activities.  

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/  

Makes you wonder, if other countries were to run tests like the US, what would be the outcome. 

[Autonomous]

BTW, US has around 12% hospitalization rate. 

 

[sandeep]

Just now, Autonomous said:

BTW, US has around 12% hospitalization rate. 

 

Its a bad idea to look at aggregate US numbers - the pandemic spread is different by region - NY, Detroit are in bad shape, some other places, the curve has been successfully flattened (Seattle?), or hasn't yet gotten to the exponential spread yet. 

 

India and Pakistan, I guess we will know 10-14 days from now.  I'm legit scared of that.  The worst case scenario is unthinkable, but anything short of best case will mean that lakhs will die.  

[MechEng]

Coronavirus is already bigger than 9/11 for Americans.

 

 

[Mariyam]

Mexico wants the wall now!

 

Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

[FischerTal]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/27/covid-19-is-probably-seasonal-thats-no-reason-relax/%3foutputType=amp

 

this has been my hypothesis too. I think South Asia will catch a lucky break as summer starts. I do believe the Indian govt has access to this data as well, but the worst is yet to come. Monsoon season is going to be a b1tch this year. 

[rkt.india]

14 hours ago, sandeep said:

Not really - it depends on whether the virus reaches your lungs.  If it doesn't, you can recover from it in about 10 days like a bad flu.  If it reaches the lungs and spreads there - ventilator time, and from that point, the odds of fatality are really high, regardless of how healthy or young you are.

 

I have instructed everyone in my family to start a turmeric regimen - it may boost the health and immunity levels of your respiratory tract - definitely won't hurt - every little bit helps.  1 heaping teaspoon turmeric, pinch of salt, 2 tablespoons warm milk - before you go to bed.  Theory is that turmeric will coat your throat and do its thing.  

 

I have recurring nasal allergies and frequently suffer from congestion - which can turn into sore throat via nasal drip.  This turmeric milk is the most effective way for me to cure it.  I hate to sound like a crazy grandma, but I think it definitely won't hurt, and if in the rare event that you get infected, you would wish that you had done what you could to give yourself the best chance...

There are two forms of the strain, one is more virulent.

[rkt.india]

Also, what people are talking about with ramping up testing. It's not like you can test random people on street. Unless you start showing symptoms, you aren't getting tested.

Edited March 28, 2020 by rkt.india

[rkt.india]

9 hours ago, sandeep said:

Its a bad idea to look at aggregate US numbers - the pandemic spread is different by region - NY, Detroit are in bad shape, some other places, the curve has been successfully flattened (Seattle?), or hasn't yet gotten to the exponential spread yet. 

 

India and Pakistan, I guess we will know 10-14 days from now.  I'm legit scared of that.  The worst case scenario is unthinkable, but anything short of best case will mean that lakhs will die.  

I don't know what you are talking about. India had the first case on Jan 30 and you are still saying we will know in 10-14 days. It's two months already. 

[Zero_Unit]

When you have a dumbass as a president who is followed by bigger dumbasses who voted him in, this was bound to happen. The man took it as a joke, down played it, politicized it, put millions of people, who listens to everything coming out of his mouth as if he is the reincernation of jesus, at risk, are you really surprised by this?

 

To make it worst, he wants the country up and running by easter and expects churches to be packed... I don't know if I should laugh or cry at this point.

[Manny_Pacquiao]

4 hours ago, rkt.india said:

I don't know what you are talking about. India had the first case on Jan 30 and you are still saying we will know in 10-14 days. It's two months already. 

Indian government implemented several measures that the Americans and europeans didn't (and in some cases, still haven't):

 

1. restrict, and eventually ban all foreign travel in and out of the country, except in specific cases

2. quarantine and treat all foreign arrivals before the cut-off date - foreign or indian

3. declare country-wide lockdown and strictly enforce it

4. block export of all anti-malarial drugs and supplies

5. restrict sales of anti-malarial drugs by making them prescription-only

 

This was a china-style response by the indian government. western countries couldn't pull this off because they under-estimated the virus.

[Manny_Pacquiao]

BTW, here's NYC doing its own version of #Taalibajao...LOL

 

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23ClapBecauseWeCare&src=typeahead_click&f=video

 

[rkt.india]

19 hours ago, sandeep said:

hmmm, explains the desperate need to convince yourself that things are "fine" in Delhi, while US is "*ed".  

I think you are just not accepting how proactively things have been handled here.

[sandeep]

7 hours ago, rkt.india said:

I don't know what you are talking about. India had the first case on Jan 30 

And?  The timeline of first case, or any travel related case that is detected is not relevant.  Its the timeline when unrelated community spread starts spreading.  Once that happens, in 2 to 3 weeks, the numbers start exponentially increasing, because each cluster of handful of cases, are going to infect many more, and so on.  We are starting to see indication of community spread in India - saw a headline somewhere last night that said 6 out of 9 confirmed cases in Bihar had zero travel history.  Is it confirmed that 100% of the cases in India that are confirmed, have been confidently sourced via  contact tracing to someone that brought it in via travel?  A  big fat no.  

 

Jan 30 is irrelevant.  If the first case detected was quarantined successfully and did not spread it beyond folks who were in turn, confined, then its all good.  

 

Its the community spread timeline that matters - thats where the 10 to 14 day lag is, because once you reach a tipping point of few hundred infections, its almost unavoidable that this will mushroom into few thousand.  And we won't know that for about 10 days.  Rewind back in time, and NY had a dozen infections at most, in early march.   Now it has 40,000.  

 

Do you now understand "what I am talking about"?

[sandeep]

51 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

I think you are just not accepting how proactively things have been handled here.

Bhai, I have no problems accepting anything.  Would love to be 100% wrong, and India not get community spread.  Please, God let that be the case.  But I don't think you are able to grasp the real risks that exist. 

 

Do you think the Indian government is crazy to order the 21 day lockdown? If things are already "handled" why do that?  

 

Now think whether the Indian "lockdown" is going to be effective and to what degree "social distancing" is possible to pull off and maintain.  

 

This is not to criticize India, its a *ing genuine expression of concern.

[Autonomous]

2 minutes ago, sandeep said:

And?  The timeline of first case, or any travel related case that is detected is not relevant.  Its the timeline when unrelated community spread starts spreading.  Once that happens, in 2 to 3 weeks, the numbers start exponentially increasing, because each cluster of handful of cases, are going to infect many more, and so on.  We are starting to see indication of community spread in India - saw a headline somewhere last night that said 6 out of 9 confirmed cases in Bihar had zero travel history.  Is it confirmed that 100% of the cases in India that are confirmed, have been confidently sourced via  contact tracing to someone that brought it in via travel?  A  big fat no.  

 

Jan 30 is irrelevant.  If the first case detected was quarantined successfully and did not spread it beyond folks who were in turn, confined, then its all good.  

 

Its the community spread timeline that matters - thats where the 10 to 14 day lag is, because once you reach a tipping point of few hundred infections, its almost unavoidable that this will mushroom into few thousand.  And we won't know that for about 10 days.  Rewind back in time, and NY had a dozen infections at most, in early march.   Now it has 40,000.  

 

Do you now understand "what I am talking about"?

Lock downs are necessary for 30 days. 

 

People with no or mild symptoms will recover in this period.

 

Meanwhile rapid testing should go on. 

[sandeep]

14 minutes ago, Autonomous said:

Lock downs are necessary for 30 days. 

 

People with no or mild symptoms will recover in this period.

 

Meanwhile rapid testing should go on. 

Some folks are too infatuated with the idea that "India did good, better than US or other countries" and are clinging to early snapshot numbers as proof.  I understand how seductive that idea can be.  But wishful thinking doesn't make something true.

 

Believe me, I would love it if they are right.  And the outbreak just stops in India, (and Pakistan).  Maybe the heat will do its thing. I don't know.  Point is none of us do.  That is why governments have taken drastic lockdown steps - as a last resort.  Because they know that the alternative is total disaster on a scale that hasn't been seen in 100+ years.

[Autonomous]

52 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Some folks are too infatuated with the idea that "India did good, better than US or other countries" and are clinging to early snapshot numbers as proof.  I understand how seductive that idea can be.  But wishful thinking doesn't make something true.

 

Believe me, I would love it if they are right.  And the outbreak just stops in India, (and Pakistan).  Maybe the heat will do its thing. I don't know.  Point is none of us do.  That is why governments have taken drastic lockdown steps - as a last resort.  Because they know that the alternative is total disaster on a scale that hasn't been seen in 100+ years.

India and Pakistan will still have mild or cool temperatures in certain places. So even if heat does its thing, it might be in the plain or central areas. 

 

US may manage it somehow, considering they are following the right approach of intense testing. 

[sandeep]

6 minutes ago, Autonomous said:

India and Pakistan will still have mild or cool temperatures in certain places. So even if heat does its thing, it might be in the plain or central areas. 

 

US may manage it somehow, considering they are following the right approach of intense testing. 

For all the problems they are facing, US healthcare systems and infrastructure is incomparable to Ind/Pak.  Their systems, logistics etc are so much better equipped to respond.  They are already doing load-balancing of ventilators from one hospital to another, one region to another.  The gigantic convention center in NYC - Jacob Javits - is already converted into a giant ICU ward.  And not needed yet.  USMIL already has an action plan ready to convert available hotel buildings into hospitals.  They are rolling it out in advance, before they are needed.

 

And in spite of all the money and resources, there is a good chance that US will get overwhelmed with patients.  Bhai, apna koi chance nahi hai. Only hope and prayer is to stop the rate of infection, keep it low as possible.  That 10+ day lagtime in the jump of cases, is what is making people complacent.  

[Autonomous]

35 minutes ago, sandeep said:

For all the problems they are facing, US healthcare systems and infrastructure is incomparable to Ind/Pak.  Their systems, logistics etc are so much better equipped to respond.  They are already doing load-balancing of ventilators from one hospital to another, one region to another.  The gigantic convention center in NYC - Jacob Javits - is already converted into a giant ICU ward.  And not needed yet.  USMIL already has an action plan ready to convert available hotel buildings into hospitals.  They are rolling it out in advance, before they are needed.

 

And in spite of all the money and resources, there is a good chance that US will get overwhelmed with patients.  Bhai, apna koi chance nahi hai. Only hope and prayer is to stop the rate of infection, keep it low as possible.  That 10+ day lagtime in the jump of cases, is what is making people complacent.  

I think koi test hi nahin kar raha theek se. Capacity aur resources nahin hain kissi ke pas testing ke. 

 

As per reports even in Wuhan 60% people had the virus who recovered on their own in lock-down without being tested. 

 

Italy reports thousands of cases daily, these are not "new cases". These are the ones who were infected way back but are being found out now due to lack of testing.