coffee_rules Posted October 20, 2020 Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, zen said: qualification and ranking are independent .... rankings add up to 100% For a top 2 finish chances per this simulation, simply add up % in rank 1 & 2 He explained a few posts earlier, the second table is calculated by how individual matches go. If today’s match goes to DC, Mumbai is less probable to go no. 1 (9%) and more probable to go no. 2 (38%). If DC loses, MI is more probable to go to no. 1 (20%) and less probable to go to no. 2 (29%). This is calculated on how other matches go. If all fans want MI to top the table, pray that KXIP wins today, big! Edited October 20, 2020 by coffee_rules
zen Posted October 20, 2020 Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: If all fans want MI to top the table, pray that KXIP wins today, big! I know how the tables work by looking at them Wolves top the table on their strength .... Other teams have their own luck and form. If they play better, no issues if they top the table Edited October 20, 2020 by zen
coffee_rules Posted October 20, 2020 Posted October 20, 2020 Seriously MI fans are worse than CSK fans here. My full support is for DC from now
zen Posted October 20, 2020 Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: Seriously MI fans are worse than CSK fans here. My full support is for DC from now Ok so MI fans are worse because they do not want to depend upon other teams for their team’s benefit (and want to top the table on their own merit) Edited October 20, 2020 by zen
poi Posted October 20, 2020 Author Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) I have tweaked the simulation to be W/L only (ignores point sharing even if that is possible) and BEST-case scenario for each team. So, that means they will (when points are tied) are going to have the best NRR. For eg. if there are 3 teams with the highest points at the end of a single scenario, all 3 will be ranked 1, although in reality, only the one with the highest NRR will be. After Match 38 after KXIP beat DC: After tomorrow's match, assuming KKR beats RCB: If RCB beats KKR: Edited October 20, 2020 by poi
poi Posted October 20, 2020 Author Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) If KXIP continues to win the remaining matches, they are 85% guaranteed to be in the top 4 (regardless of NRR vs other teams) and 99.9% in the top 4 if they increase NRR enough. There are still a few scenarios that can happen where KXIP wins all remaining and still not make it, but that can only happen due to bad NRR(not likely if you're winning all). Edited October 20, 2020 by poi
Ajju Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 Please prepare table to useful for CSK to win title. Thanks in advance The Dark Horse 1
The Dark Horse Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ajju said: Please prepare table to useful for CSK to win title. Thanks in advance Team has to win.. ask Dhoni to select useful team to win the match.. Stan AF, Ajju and Scarface 1 1 1
poi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 Unless something magical happens, RCB beats KKR today and here is how the table will look like:
velu Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 20 hours ago, poi said: I have tweaked the simulation to be W/L only (ignores point sharing even if that is possible) and BEST-case scenario for each team. So, that means they will (when points are tied) are going to have the best NRR. For eg. if there are 3 teams with the highest points at the end of a single scenario, all 3 will be ranked 1, although in reality, only the one with the highest NRR will be. After Match 38 after KXIP beat DC: 1 hour ago, poi said: Unless something magical happens, RCB beats KKR today and here is how the table will look like: qualification chance increased from 7.59 to 8.5% without even playing Forever Indian 1
zen Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, velu said: qualification chance increased from 7.59 to 8.5% without even playing #7-8 finish at 58%
velu Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, zen said: #7-8 finish at 58% 79.54% chance tat we avoid wooden spoon
zen Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, velu said: 79.54% chance tat we avoid wooden spoon 30% chance at #8, so 70% for 1-7 Next best has 16% chance at #8, so 84% at 1-7
velu Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, zen said: 30% chance at #8, so 70% for 1-7 Next best has 16% chance at #8, so 84% at 1-7 as a trader i don't believe in mathematical indicators
zen Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 More important is which teams are moving towards their peak (would change with form): Playing at peak: DC & K11 .... so could falter if not careful Almost at peak but with little more in tank: RCB .... so can still do better if more of its players click Yet to peak: MI (though still winning) & RR (a couple of weak players in it have the ability to sink it) .... these two could get double dangerous if they hit their strides Inconsistent: CSK, KKR & SRH (need big improvements and motivation to turn things around)
poi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 The ranks 1 to 8 are assuming NRR is not hinderance, so if there are 2 teams tied with the highest points, both will be rank 1. In reality, only 1 will be rank 1 and another will be rank 2. i can expand the tables to have both “best case rank1” and “worst case rank 1” (and same for all ranks) so you can see how NRR could impact the possibilities.
poi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 2 hours ago, velu said: qualification chance increased from 7.59 to 8.5% without even playing Yes because RCB beat KKr, thus lowering KKR’s possibilities for qualification, which increased KXIP’s (and likely others) chances without playing.
velu Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, poi said: Yes because RCB beat KKr, thus lowering KKR’s possibilities for qualification, which increased KXIP’s (and likely others) chances without playing. chances will keep going up as long as we dont play right ?
poi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, velu said: chances will keep going up as long as we dont play right ? If RR wins tomorrow, CSK's chances will drop slightly But if SRH wins, CSK's chances go up slightly Edited October 21, 2020 by poi
asterix Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 MI is due a traditional loss to SRH. That should give a boost to SRH’s chances...
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