poi Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) I might as well create a new thread for the possibilities of all scenarios that can happen from this point forward. I will post possibilities tables after each match until we know the exact playoffs teams. After Match 38 (Tuesday), the top 4, particularly top 3, seem pretty set (barring crazy scenarios that are theoretically possible) Edited October 20, 2020 by poi latest speedheat, zen, Mariyam and 2 others 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Can you substantiate more? Explain the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poi Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, coffee_rules said: Can you substantiate more? Explain the table Since we’re currently after match 36 and there are 56 matches before the playoffs, there are just over 1 million possible combinations possible for teams. I ran simulations of all possible win/loss outcomes and generated the points/ranking to see how each team’s chances for ranks 1 to 10 , as well as scenarios for qualifications. Did that explain it? Edited October 19, 2020 by poi Mariyam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punjabi_khota Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) has 0.01% chance of topping the table. Edited October 19, 2020 by punjabi_khota Mariyam, Jimmy Cliff, Swag and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I6MTW Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 So CSK are out of the tournament if they lose today? What are their chances after today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punjabi_khota Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 How is qualifiedPc calculated? It doesn’t match or add up to rank[1-4]Pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poi Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: How is qualifiedPc calculated? It doesn’t match or add up to rank[1-4]Pc. Qualified is based on individual scenarios, so you just cannot sum of rank1-4 for it. Also note that NRR is not being factored in, just w/l, but that was understood with these simulations. Edited October 19, 2020 by poi Mariyam and coffee_rules 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Good work @poi poi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poi Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) New possibility scenario tables after Match 37. If tomorrow DC beats KXIP: If KXIP beats DC: Edited October 20, 2020 by poi screenshot issue The Dark Horse and Mariyam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cricketics Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 POI good job. So CSK is out based on your probability factor? That won’t go down well with our csk fans here. Are you ready for those fans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poi Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) On 10/19/2020 at 2:39 PM, Cricketics said: POI good job. So CSK is out based on your probability factor? That won’t go down well with our csk fans here. Are you ready for those fans? Not out theoretically, because there are scenarios that have them clearly ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th if everything in the rest of the tournament goes their way. Is that likely? 8% of the scenarios go in their favor, but 92% do not. Beyond just numbers/probabilities, CSK is mentally at a disadvantage with their back to back losses. Here is the scenario table IF CSK wins all 4 remaining matches: note that they are not guaranteed to qualify, but they would have a great chance at over 85%. It should depend on what KKR does with their remaining matches. Edited October 20, 2020 by poi Mariyam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cricketics Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, poi said: Not out theoretically, because there are scenarios that have them clearly ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th if everything in the rest of the tournament goes their way. Is that likely? 8% of the scenarios go in their favor, but 92% do not. Beyond just numbers/probabilities, CSK is mentally at a disadvantage with their back to back losses. Here is the scenario table IF CSK wins all 4 remaining matches: note that they are not guaranteed to qualify, but they would have a great chance at over 85%. It should depend on what KKR does with their remaining matches. Can you create a scenario where they can top the table? @velu velu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poi Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Cricketics said: Can you create a scenario where they can top the table? @velu If someone can run the simulation, it would be good to double check my calculations. Based on my calculation, CSK cannot top the table as Rank1 despite winning next 4, but they can be ranked 2nd. Look at my previous post with that simulation. Edited October 19, 2020 by poi Mariyam and Cricketics 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cricketics Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, poi said: If someone can run the simulation, it would be good to double check my calculations. Based on my calculation, CSK cannot top the table as Rank1 despite winning next 4, but they can be ranked 2nd. Look at my previous post with that simulation. Sure, we will arrange some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) Remaining group games (from M38 onwards): Edited October 19, 2020 by zen Cricketics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vickydev Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Superb work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mariyam Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) 11 hours ago, poi said: Not out theoretically, because there are scenarios that have them clearly ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th if everything in the rest of the tournament goes their way. Is that likely? 8% of the scenarios go in their favor, but 92% do not. Beyond just numbers/probabilities, CSK is mentally at a disadvantage with their back to back losses. Here is the scenario table IF CSK wins all 4 remaining matches: note that they are not guaranteed to qualify, but they would have a great chance at over 85%. It should depend on what KKR does with their remaining matches. According to this second table, the chances of qualifying are 93.74%. And finishing fifth are 14.97%. That adds up to more than 100%? What am I missing here? Can you please tell me what are MI's chances of a top 2 finish at this stage? Edited October 20, 2020 by Mariyam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Mariyam said: According to this second table, the chances of qualifying are 93.74%. And finishing fifth are 14.97%. That adds up to more than 100%? What am I missing here? qualification and ranking are independent .... rankings add up to 100% For a top 2 finish chances per this simulation, simply add up % in rank 1 & 2 Mariyam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Mariyam said: According to this second table, the chances of qualifying are 93.74%. And finishing fifth are 14.97%. That adds up to more than 100%? What am I missing here? Can you please tell me what are MI's chances of a top 2 finish at this stage? maths zen and Mariyam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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