UK NHS likely to roll out CoViD 19 vaccine as early as Dec 7.

[BacktoCricaddict]

22 hours ago, Clarke said:

 

You're talking from a scientific perspective which is well & good, from the commoner point of view this seems a potential struggle.

 

Herd immunity will be difficult to achieve internationally and its quite impractical to have closed borders and even stop all potential carriers with testing and they could bring the mutated strands.

 

Then there's the possibility of immunity wearing off. People will not like frequent vaccination.

 

The previous normal doesn't seem easily visible currently. 

You are right that there are many unknowns.  But my hypothesis is based on these factors:

 

(a) The appearance of more deadly/infectious variants is going to slow once virus' replication slows after initial vaccinations.   

(b) Several of the current vaccines are already over 70% effective against the new variants.  With a limited number of variants, vaccines designed to catch them all will enter the market.  

(c) Our ability to process information and do science is phenomenal.  Answers will be found fast (like they did with the vaccines).

 

The biggest unknown is (as you pointed out):  how long will vaccine-induced immunity last?  Current studies show that - at least with the Pfizer vaccine - it is over 6 months.  These data will not be available for a few years for obvious reasons.  

 

Not sure what "previous" vs. "new" normal would mean.  My guess is that it won't be a WWII type shake-up.  Maybe not even an 9/11 type shake up.  Travel won't stop, but you may see more sanitary public transportation.  I could live with that :-).  

 

To me, the biggest challenge is the refusal of significant numbers of people to become vaccinated - even once.  

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

Previously, I was skeptical of the claims against the Astra-Zeneca vaccinations related to blood clots.  There is a lot of new information coming that has made me walk back my skepticism some.  While the overall ratio of blood clot appearance is much below the general population (which is what my original opinion was based on), there seem to be some specific trends - beyond the political - that need to be looked at closely.  There may be a very, very small subset of people (so far the numbers are still minuscule, but they've all been younger people) who are somehow predisposed to this reaction.  

 

Here is a long article, but well worth it.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clot-issue-wont-go-away/618451/

 

Excerpt:

Stories linking people’s deaths to vaccinations have been among the most popular vaccine-related stories on social media in recent months—and that was true long before there were any hints of a real association. Now that health authorities really are investigating a possible, fatal vaccine reaction, these narratives will increase their reach. The first face to be linked prominently to the blood disorders appeared on Facebook on March 22. More seem sure to follow.

 

It may be that at some point soon a non-vaccine cause will be established, or treatments will render the condition manageable. Until that happens, though, regulators must do their best to maintain calm, perspective, and transparency. Imagine if they’d reacted more conservatively from the start, and waited to say or do anything until the number of people who turned up with this condition had reached into the hundreds. More people would have been vaccinated along the way, but the eventual loss of trust in the monitoring system for vaccines could have been far more severe. 

 

[coffee_rules]

6 hours ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Previously, I was skeptical of the claims against the Astra-Zeneca vaccinations related to blood clots.  There is a lot of new information coming that has made me walk back my skepticism some.  While the overall ratio of blood clot appearance is much below the general population (which is what my original opinion was based on), there seem to be some specific trends - beyond the political - that need to be looked at closely.  There may be a very, very small subset of people (so far the numbers are still minuscule, but they've all been younger people) who are somehow predisposed to this reaction.  

 

Here is a long article, but well worth it.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clot-issue-wont-go-away/618451/

 

Excerpt:

Stories linking people’s deaths to vaccinations have been among the most popular vaccine-related stories on social media in recent months—and that was true long before there were any hints of a real association. Now that health authorities really are investigating a possible, fatal vaccine reaction, these narratives will increase their reach. The first face to be linked prominently to the blood disorders appeared on Facebook on March 22. More seem sure to follow.

 

It may be that at some point soon a non-vaccine cause will be established, or treatments will render the condition manageable. Until that happens, though, regulators must do their best to maintain calm, perspective, and transparency. Imagine if they’d reacted more conservatively from the start, and waited to say or do anything until the number of people who turned up with this condition had reached into the hundreds. More people would have been vaccinated along the way, but the eventual loss of trust in the monitoring system for vaccines could have been far more severe. 

 

But those hapless few will have life threatening conditions or even die , if they take these vaccinations. They could have avoided death instead, if they had taken some other vaccination or opted to not get vaccinated. There is no greater food in this late discovery 

[BacktoCricaddict]

@Clarke

 

One point for the optimists (Admittedly US-Centric)

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/real-world-data-shows-vaccines-kicking-butt-including-against-scary-variant/

 

In a small trial, the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine fully protected people from symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the worrisome B.1.351 coronavirus variant widely circulating in South Africa, the companies announced in a press release.

Though researchers will need more data to confirm the result, it is just the latest bit of positive news to come out this week about how the vaccines are performing with real-world conditions and in real-world settings.

 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

Pfizer 6-month update:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-confirm-high-efficacy-and-no-serious

Pfizer has the six month update. *Zero* hospitalizations among the vaccinated vs. 32 among the placebo group (n=46,307).

 

Also real life data from South Africa, where B.1.351 is dominant: zero cases of COVID among the vaccinated vs. nine in the placebo (n=800).

 

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Edited April 5, 2021 by BacktoCricaddict

[Jimmy Cliff]

 

[Mariyam]

On 4/6/2021 at 5:23 AM, BacktoCricaddict said:

Pfizer 6-month update:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-confirm-high-efficacy-and-no-serious

Pfizer has the six month update. *Zero* hospitalizations among the vaccinated vs. 32 among the placebo group (n=46,307).

 

Also real life data from South Africa, where B.1.351 is dominant: zero cases of COVID among the vaccinated vs. nine in the placebo (n=800).

 

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Help me understand:

 

Zero hospitalizations. Is that relevant? How about the ones who still got Covid 19 and didn't need to be hospitalized? Would that count as a successful data point for the Pfizer vaccine?

 

My numbers untrained mind says that for both the groups ie vaccinated vs placebo we should look at incidence of covid and if that percentage is markedly (idk how you decide that) better then the vaccine works.

[Clarke]

4 hours ago, Mariyam said:

Help me understand:

 

Zero hospitalizations. Is that relevant? How about the ones who still got Covid 19 and didn't need to be hospitalized? Would that count as a successful data point for the Pfizer vaccine?

 

My numbers untrained mind says that for both the groups ie vaccinated vs placebo we should look at incidence of covid and if that percentage is markedly (idk how you decide that) better then the vaccine works.

 

 

Most relevant as per youtube univ, the one below from Vox, a main stream news source, is an eye opener. No wonder we've heard it from every health care expert, get vaccinated first, type of vaccine doesn't matter.

 

 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Edited April 7, 2021 by Clarke

[BacktoCricaddict]

4 hours ago, Mariyam said:

Help me understand:

 

Zero hospitalizations. Is that relevant? How about the ones who still got Covid 19 and didn't need to be hospitalized? Would that count as a successful data point for the Pfizer vaccine?

 

My numbers untrained mind says that for both the groups ie vaccinated vs placebo we should look at incidence of covid and if that percentage is markedly (idk how you decide that) better then the vaccine works.

That's what the efficacy data are, and have been there all along (including in this report).    Both data points are relevant.  Zero hospitalizations is relevant because it indicates that, even in people whose first line of defence is breached, the vaccine has primed their immune systems to fight it off before it becomes serious.  

 

One common misconception about vaccines is that they are a 100% impermeable shield.  They are not.  You may still get exposed and your nasal passages may get infected, showing a positive test.  This happens in ~ 5% of vaccinated people.  But their immune system will take over and finish it off before it hits the lungs and causes real problems. 

 

If I am the virus playing chess, I may still move my pawns around a bit to knock off a couple of your pawns.  If someone stopped by and took a look at the board at that point (Covid test), it'll be like, yeah this virus is there and doing something.  I might even celebrate a bit and make you think.  But you launch a swift attack and don't let my pawns cross the halfway point and then completely decimate my bishops, rooks, knights and checkmate before I know what the hell hit me.  If you're unvaccinated, OTOH, your pieces are asleep and I might overwhelm you before you can do anything.  

[coffee_rules]

Got my shot today. Janssen one (single dose only, no second dose). Not my choice, would have preferred Moderna or Pfizer. 

But it is what it is. It seems it doesn't protect me from new variants like SA/Indian, but whoever got Covid in 4 weeks after vac, has not been hospitalized, so I can cheat hospitalization and death. This is not mRNA based. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/janssen.html

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by coffee_rules

[Global.Baba]

5 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Got my shot today. Janssen one (single dose only, no second dose). Not my choice, would have preferred Moderna or Pfizer. 

But it is what it is. It seems it doesn't protect me from new variants like SA/Indian, but whoever got Covid in 4 weeks after vac, has not been hospitalized, so I can cheat hospitalization and death. This is not mRNA based. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/janssen.html

 

got the Pfizer one, 2 weeks back, waiting for 2nd one. 0 side effects for the 1st shot.

 

 

[coffee_rules]

4 minutes ago, Global.Baba said:

got the Pfizer one, 2 weeks back, waiting for 2nd one. 0 side effects for the 1st shot.

 

 

 

 I do have some severe headache and bodyache though.

I thought Covid will not come near Babas. Covid virus forgot to read the ".". 

[Global.Baba]

Just now, coffee_rules said:

 

 I do have some severe headache and bodyache though.

I thought Covid will not come near Babas. Covid virus forgot to read the ".". 

I took the vaccine only to bless it :)

[coffee_rules]

Just now, Global.Baba said:

I took the vaccine only to bless it :)

 

Oh Namo Global.Babayanamaha!

[BacktoCricaddict]

13 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

 

 I do have some severe headache and bodyache though.

 

That's from arguing with nutjobs like us on ICF.

[mishra]

12 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

 

 I do have some severe headache and bodyache though.

I thought Covid will not come near Babas. Covid virus forgot to read the ".". 

All my frnds and their partners vaccinated, mostly by AZ. Only my wifeand one more frnd of mine got pfizer. AZ had similar mild headache , pfizer had flu symptoms for a day.

[mishra]

Btw I am not surprised that a $5 vaccine AZ is facing all heat while $50 pfizer is not getting questioned despite Norway reporting problem with them.

[Clarke]

^^ yep, the pfizer "deaths" were put aside quickly, maybe there was no conclusion or a link established. 

[mishra]

2 hours ago, Clarke said:

^^ yep, the pfizer "deaths" were put aside quickly, maybe there was no conclusion or a link established. 

One in million run the risk of blood clot complications for AZ. Advice is clear , if u have headache for 3 days post AZ, Get urself to nearest hospital as headache could be down to clot symptoms. i think AZ is more widely used and have more data available 

[coffee_rules]

Heartfelt. Feeling sad for him