G_B_ Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Thought I would make one. As of Q4 2024, factors in favour of AAP (1) BJP has no face. AAP have faces. We have seen in Jharkhand especially how important a face is. (2) Congress which had hurt AAP seems to be doldrums. Even in states like JnK and Jharkhand the number of MLAs that get elected are the same or have declined. SAD in Delhi too once commanded some votes. So vote cutters of AAP seem to be collpasing even further. (3) Freebies will be rolled out which have aided incumbants in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. (4) There might be a sympathy wave for AAP given that Hemant Soren was jailed and it united tribals. Factors against AAP (1) Their management of municipal corporations has been garbage. Last time around they blamed the BJP. (2) There is 10 years of incumbancy. Even freebie centric leaders like Patnaik eventually lost. (3) NDA got 40% last time. AAP overall vote share skewed by Muslim dominated constituencies. NDA need 45% to make a game out of this election. A 4-5% swing is not out of bounds. Bottomline, the BJP need their own viable freebies to counter the upcoming AAP freebies and a viable face. This is to reach 45% of the vote to make it close. I dont see this happening, so I am likely to go with a AAP win. As noted in the other threads, I have not predicted elections well this year. coffee_rules and mishra 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 People are poor. They want freebies. No denying to it. AAP doesn’t do finances well. They just want power. So, somewhere freebies vs State earnings need to be enforced. Also money from which department is being fwded to freebies account should be mandatorily published Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 There is a lot of scope for Hindu vote consolidation in Delhi to run the Batenge campaign How about the anti-incumbent wave ? Wish Delhi BJP gets back leaders like Nupur Sharma , will be a masterstroke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 I want to see how hard Congress campaign or they just give up. Are bit part players in Bihar and Delhi. Rjd unlikely to give them much seats in bihar. In delhi they can touch 10% if they try. Can drive votes in sc segment and get popular independents to contest on their symbol. Catch 22 for congress. They hit 10% and it might result in Bjp delhi gov. They get 2% then it might impact narrative in Punjab and seat sharing with other allies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, G_B_ said: I want to see how hard Congress campaign or they just give up. Are bit part players in Bihar and Delhi. Rjd unlikely to give them much seats in bihar. In delhi they can touch 10% if they try. Congress has become Muslim League of pre Independence. They are seen as must "Ally" if an party or alliance is competing against BJP. So common sense says, AAP and RJD will give him some seats like Akhilesh did in UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jigjig Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 hour ago, mishra said: People are poor. They want freebies. No denying to it. AAP doesn’t do finances well. They just want power. So, somewhere freebies vs State earnings need to be enforced. Also money from which department is being fwded to freebies account should be mandatorily published They claim only Delhi in the country has postive budget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkt.india Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Bjp need to promote someone like Kapil Mishra. ravishingravi and raki05 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 21 hours ago, mishra said: Congress has become Muslim League of pre Independence. They are seen as must "Ally" if an party or alliance is competing against BJP. So common sense says, AAP and RJD will give him some seats like Akhilesh did in UP. Tn jharkhand bihar up jnk wb tripura (potentially wb?) they are minor partners. Maha Assam (potentially with ajmal) kerala they are leaders or major part of the alliance. Haryana Karnataka Punjab Telangana Mp chhatisgrah uttarakhand hp rajasthan goa are strong enough to stand on own. Delhi Ap odisha are a gone case even if they stand alone. Vote cutters at best. mishra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 10 minutes ago, rkt.india said: Bjp need to promote someone like Kapil Mishra. They will go ahead with joint leadership Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 5 hours ago, G_B_ said: They will go ahead with joint leadership Manoj Tiwary is the most uncharismatic leader, Kapil Mishra lost his seat and has been sidelined. He’s a good orator. Bansuri is too young. There is talk of airdropping some national leader, hopefully Smriti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 After bedi fiasco they wont.Sent from my SM-S928B using Tapatalk coffee_rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Hard hindutva is needed. No other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 29 Author Share Posted November 29 Spoke to a Delhi origin office peer. Told me Aap are holding micro sabhas of 100 to 150 people to sound people out about Aap freebies. These sabhas also will spread lies about the bjp. So templete is set. Ak and big netas wont speak untruths. "Mahol" will be done by foot soldiers. Lies include bjp taking away freebies and reservation. Feedback i got is, bjp is barely visible on the ground. Aap campaign already mobalised. 2.5 months to go to elections. mishra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jf1gp_1 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 On 11/25/2024 at 6:18 PM, coffee_rules said: There is a lot of scope for Hindu vote consolidation in Delhi to run the Batenge campaign How about the anti-incumbent wave ? Wish Delhi BJP gets back leaders like Nupur Sharma , will be a masterstroke AAP has made a mess of Delhi and I am willing to bet they will win again. BJP - Delhi are just as corrupt as AAP. State govt is bankrupt and only a Yogi kind can save Delhi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 hours ago, G_B_ said: Spoke to a Delhi origin office peer. Told me Aap are holding micro sabhas of 100 to 150 people to sound people out about Aap freebies. These sabhas also will spread lies about the bjp. So templete is set. Ak and big netas wont speak untruths. "Mahol" will be done by foot soldiers. Lies include bjp taking away freebies and reservation. Feedback i got is, bjp is barely visible on the ground. Aap campaign already mobalised. 2.5 months to go to elections. My hunch. AAP will struggle. G_B_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 Bjp seems to be fixated on forming committees. I understand you need to massage egos for unitef front but cadre mobalisation is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 A few opinion polls showing bjp in the 15 to 20 range with aap around 45 to 50.Sent from my SM-S928B using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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