Situation in Syria...

[G_B_]

I am reminded of the butterfly effect.

 

Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Iran wrapped up in Hezbollah issues. Assads foreign backers simply dont have bandwidth to prop him up. Armenia which used to bank on Russian help lost out to Azeris.

 

Glad to see Trump say on X he does not give a shjt to intervene. Its exactly the attitude India needs.

 

I think rise of Al Queda offshoots in Syria might embolden movements in BD. India needs to do something post 20th Jan.

 

 

[ravishingravi]

Establishment has really moved on things fast given that Trump takes over in month time 

[G_B_]

I dont see how establishment gains from factions of the al noosra front gaining in syria.

I doubt Turkey or kurds are gaining. Israel too will have a islamic hardliners in the golan heights



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[coffee_rules]

One of the countries where Arab spring started in March 2011. Syria will be ruled by unknown radicals now

[ravishingravi]

5 hours ago, G_B_ said:

I dont see how establishment gains from factions of the al noosra front gaining in syria.

I doubt Turkey or kurds are gaining. Israel too will have a islamic hardliners in the golan heights



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Well the overall plan was to weaken Russia and Iran. That's what it's all about. 

[G_B_]

Iran maybe. I dont think Russia cares.

 

The jewish lobby in the usa would 100% prefer Assad. Three front war for Israel...

[G_B_]

I wonder too if this spreads to Jordan...

 

If shias are killed in syria will there be a backlash in iraq?

 

ME is truly like gunpowder.

 

 

[velu]

This terrorist is a good terrorist 

[mishra]

2 hours ago, velu said:

This terrorist is a good terrorist 

Used to be Bad terrorist, only now Good Terrorist 

Edited December 8, 2024 by mishra

[mishra]

Two things happened recently. Ukrainian militias were in Syria attacking Assad and Russian based and it was justified as wider Russia Ukraine war.

 

Israelis found that 70% of Hezbollah weapons were Russian so they also supported the regime change by neutralising Assad forces. 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

2 hours ago, mishra said:

Two things happened recently. Ukrainian militias were in Syria attacking Assad and Russian based and it was justified as wider Russia Ukraine war.

 

Israelis found that 70% of Hezbollah weapons were Russian so they also supported the regime change by neutralising Assad forces. 

 

 

Israel is our friend.

Hezbollah is Israel's enemy

So Hezbollah is our enemy.

Russia is Hezbollah's friend.

Hence Russia should be our ..... enemy?

[New guy]

6 hours ago, G_B_ said:

Iran maybe. I dont think Russia cares.

 

The jewish lobby in the usa would 100% prefer Assad. Three front war for Israel...

Syria was the only Russian outpost in the middle east and they are completely cut off now. They used it as a military base for all interference in African countries and that will reduce a lot now

 

Also Syria is the one place an alternate pipeline for oil and gas could be provided to Europe which would cut off their dependency on Russia

 

Syria was very very critical for Russia

 

 

Russia is basically screwed at this point and set to lose effectively all of their key geopolitical military bases that aren't in Russia itself, and even the key bases in Russia itself are under significantly more risk than before the invasion of Ukraine.

They're set to lose their only Mediterranean Naval Base in Syria, and their invasion of Ukraine has already resulted in Finland and Sweden joining NATO which effectively makes the Baltic Sea a NATO lake to cut off St.Petersburg and Kaliningrad. China is also quietly eyeing how they might take back territory in the far east that they surrendered to the Russian Empire after the Opium Wars and the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in the 1800's. Russia's Northern Naval base is also now under threat because its only linked to the rest of Russia by a single highway that runs parallel to their border with Finland, which is now a NATO border.

So Russia is set to lose their Black Fleet to Ukrainian counter attacks, their Baltic fleet to NATO expansion, their Mediterranean fleet to the renewed Syrian Rebellion, and their remaining Northern and Eastern fleets are in the direct firing line of either enemies, frienemies, or both.

[mishra]

1 hour ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

Israel is our friend.

Hezbollah is Israel's enemy

So Hezbollah is our enemy.

Russia is Hezbollah's friend.

Hence Russia should be our ..... enemy?

In geopolitics, That means when there is fight between your friends, ensure they keep on fighting as long as they can.

[G_B_]

58 minutes ago, New guy said:

Syria was the only Russian outpost in the middle east and they are completely cut off now. They used it as a military base for all interference in African countries and that will reduce a lot now

 

Also Syria is the one place an alternate pipeline for oil and gas could be provided to Europe which would cut off their dependency on Russia

 

Syria was very very critical for Russia

 

 

Russia is basically screwed at this point and set to lose effectively all of their key geopolitical military bases that aren't in Russia itself, and even the key bases in Russia itself are under significantly more risk than before the invasion of Ukraine.

They're set to lose their only Mediterranean Naval Base in Syria, and their invasion of Ukraine has already resulted in Finland and Sweden joining NATO which effectively makes the Baltic Sea a NATO lake to cut off St.Petersburg and Kaliningrad. China is also quietly eyeing how they might take back territory in the far east that they surrendered to the Russian Empire after the Opium Wars and the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in the 1800's. Russia's Northern Naval base is also now under threat because its only linked to the rest of Russia by a single highway that runs parallel to their border with Finland, which is now a NATO border.

So Russia is set to lose their Black Fleet to Ukrainian counter attacks, their Baltic fleet to NATO expansion, their Mediterranean fleet to the renewed Syrian Rebellion, and their remaining Northern and Eastern fleets are in the direct firing line of either enemies, frienemies, or both.

 

Putin is making good gains in ukraine (albeit at a loss of men). If the trend holds then by the time trump is in office Russia will hold 25% of ukrainian territory.

 

While fighting is currently going on in kursk region if Odesa falls there is nothing Ukraine can do to the Russian fleet.

 

The pipeline in Syria you talk about. Lets see if the country is stable for it. There were lot of plans for libya post Gadaffi which did not work out.Turkey will now make a play for kurdish terriories in syria. Israel is likely to create their own buffer zone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[New guy]

3 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

Putin is making good gains in ukraine (albeit at a loss of men). If the trend holds then by the time trump is in office Russia will hold 25% of ukrainian territory.

 

While fighting is currently going on in kursk region if Odesa falls there is nothing Ukraine can do to the Russian fleet.

 

The pipeline in Syria you talk about. Lets see if the country is stable for it. There were lot of plans for libya post Gadaffi which did not work out.Turkey will now make a play for kurdish terriories in syria. Israel is likely to create their own buffer zone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but gaining 25% of Ukraine territory or even 50% is not going to gain Russia anything except bragging points. What advantage does it give the country strategically?

 

And he cannot continue to hold them for long, the Ukrainians are in no mood to be compliant. If mighty US couldnt hold the more compliant Afghanistanis, no way Russia can hold off much more motivated Ukranians for long. No captured territory will be stable enough for them to use for anything.

Edited December 8, 2024 by New guy

[G_B_]

Well i think the same can be said for Syria right? The economy was so terrible it was costing Russia and Iran too many resources to keep Assad in power. Iran may have an theological compultion in keeping a shia in power (they mostly will back shia militias in Syria) but for Russia it was simply a cost.

The only people or power of note who will pay the price for this are Germans who will simply get a wave of refugees. The EU is the ultimate loser if you think about it.

Ultimately places like Syria simply dont have the economics to keep functioning....



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[ravishingravi]

I have to admire the innocence / ignorance of those who don't believe in deep state. It must require a special kind of bubble to not see this things clearly now. 

 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

I have to admire the innocence / ignorance of those who don't believe in deep state. It must require a special kind of bubble to not see this things clearly now. 

 

 

I too predicted a bunch of things sitting in my living room with friends and Bourbon. About half the things came true. Blind squirrel and acorn and all that.

 

Vaccine scientists predicted a global pandemic 20 years before it happened. When it happened, people said "see ... they predicted it. How did they know? Ahh .. they must have been working on virus-engineering to create the pandemic so they can sell a vaccine!"  

[BacktoCricaddict]

2 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

I have to admire the innocence / ignorance of those who don't believe in deep state. It must require a special kind of bubble to not see this things clearly now. 

 

 

The real naivete is in believing that the newly elected Amreekan regime will cure all these ills by dismantling the deep state and establishment.

 

I predict that they might dismantle the current deep state and establishment (whatever that is) and replace it with their own versions.

[BacktoCricaddict]

A brutal regime toppled by a group of brutal militants who will do exactly the same brutal things - and "their people" will get behind them while Assad supporters will condemn them for their brutality forgetting that their own leader was just a brutal.