gattaca Posted June 22 Posted June 22 India’s fertility is rapidly declining. India is saved by UP and Bihar. No country in the history has been able to reverse this. We will have same problem as China where aging population. Should we shut down population control centers ? What is the use of these population control departments now ? Total Fertility Rate (TFR): As of 2025, TFR is approximately 1.9 children per woman, dipping below the replacement level of 2.1investopedia.com+15vajiramandravi.com+15outlookindia.com+15timesofindia.indiatimes.com+4en.wikipedia.org+4indiatimes.com+4ft.com+1economictimes.indiatimes.com+1. In urban areas, it’s even lower, around 1.6–1.7 noidabusinessguide.com+1indiatimes.com+1. Historic decline: TFR has fallen from ~2.3 in 2014 (SRS), to ~2.0 in 2021 (NFHS‑5), and now near 1.9 in 2025en.wikipedia.org+2indianexpress.com+2economictimes.indiatimes.com+2. Stan AF 1
kepler37b Posted June 22 Posted June 22 Good only. Let it fall to 1.1 Our land is overcrowded beyond comprehension. zen and Stan AF 1 1
sandeep Posted June 22 Posted June 22 4 hours ago, kepler37b said: Good only. Let it fall to 1.1 Our land is overcrowded beyond comprehension. that's.........disastrous thinking.
gattaca Posted June 22 Author Posted June 22 4 hours ago, kepler37b said: Good only. Let it fall to 1.1 Our land is overcrowded beyond comprehension. Man you don’t understand the long term disadvantages of loosing population. You will have lot of aging population and not much young people to support aging population. India also can’t grow. The urban centers are done I have seen many people who work in IT both wife and husband work in Hyderabad and don’t have kids or just one kid because they mention cost of education. This is going to be very bad. sandeep 1
coffee_rules Posted June 22 Posted June 22 5 hours ago, kepler37b said: Good only. Let it fall to 1.1 Our land is overcrowded beyond comprehension. China, Japan, Korea, EU and most of the west have the problem of aging population and not many to take care of them. You don’t want India to go there. China is encouraging their population to have more than 2 kids and have ceased the 1-child per family in 2016 , went from 2-child to now 3-child per family policy sandeep 1
Tillu Posted June 23 Posted June 23 Even with the current fertility rate of 1.9, the momentum would carry forward and our population would peak at 1.6 billion in 2060 and from then our population will really decline. So we still have 35 years time to become a developed economy. Due to the huge population crunch in the developed economies India will continue to be the manpower supplier to the world. Also due to aging population in other countries our Nurses will have huge demand and will continue the next wave of immigration.
randomGuy Posted June 23 Posted June 23 8 minutes ago, Tillu said: Even with the current fertility rate of 1.9, the momentum would carry forward and our population would peak at 1.6 billion in 2060 and from then our population will really decline. So we still have 35 years time to become a developed economy. Due to the huge population crunch in the developed economies India will continue to be the manpower supplier to the world. Also due to aging population in other countries our Nurses will have huge demand and will continue the next wave of immigration. One can assume it goes steadily till 1.4 or 1.5 and the peak will happen arnd 2042-2043 is my estimate.
Tillu Posted June 23 Posted June 23 24 minutes ago, randomGuy said: One can assume it goes steadily till 1.4 or 1.5 and the peak will happen arnd 2042-2043 is my estimate. Yes it might very well could happen. Everybodys constantly revising their projections looking at the number of people choosing to remain single.
kepler37b Posted June 23 Posted June 23 5 hours ago, coffee_rules said: China, Japan, Korea, EU and most of the west have the problem of aging population and not many to take care of them. You don’t want India to go there. China is encouraging their population to have more than 2 kids and have ceased the 1-child per family in 2016 , went from 2-child to now 3-child per family policy AI might make 90 percent of population dead weight.
kepler37b Posted June 23 Posted June 23 (edited) 6 hours ago, gattaca said: Man you don’t understand the long term disadvantages of loosing population. You will have lot of aging population and not much young people to support aging population. India also can’t grow. The urban centers are done I have seen many people who work in IT both wife and husband work in Hyderabad and don’t have kids or just one kid because they mention cost of education. This is going to be very bad. Couples I see are dead and buried in hedonism and status games. Work("Exploring myself" "I izz independent"), Saturday Bing shopping, acquire real estate, weekend parties, Foreign trips, attend functions etc.,. People like them deserve to be bred out. The cost of education is a big fat cope. Edited June 23 by kepler37b
randomGuy Posted June 23 Posted June 23 2 hours ago, Tillu said: Yes it might very well could happen. Everybodys constantly revising their projections looking at the number of people choosing to remain single. That's the base case imo This is real-time data of countries. Many countries which had 1.8-1.9 tfr in 2015 have 1.3-1.6 today in 2025. India will have 1.4-1.5 tfr by 2040-2045. Population peak at arnd 155 cr in 2042-43 in my estimation. Tillu 1
Lone Wolf Posted June 23 Posted June 23 (edited) J&K being the lone majority UC/GC state having lowest TFR is wild. Could be similar trend in rest of the country for GC's lol. Next census would change India forever .. (for good or probably for worse) Edited June 25 by Lone Wolf
Vancouver Posted June 23 Posted June 23 So how rest of India will react when UP & Bihar become the sole contributor to population increase. All the jobs will go to them. They will carry the aging population of rest of India. Like how west is dependent on foreigners.
bowl_out Posted June 23 Posted June 23 Let population drop in the short term. I'd rather see our population drop to less than 100 crore and stabilize rather than grow to 200 crore. Yes, we'll have aging population, but one generation has to bear the impact of it. zen 1
jf1gp_1 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 On 6/23/2025 at 9:46 AM, kepler37b said: Couples I see are dead and buried in hedonism and status games. Work("Exploring myself" "I izz independent"), Saturday Bing shopping, acquire real estate, weekend parties, Foreign trips, attend functions etc.,. People like them deserve to be bred out. The cost of education is a big fat cope. Most like that usually end up having kids. Have seen a few becoming parents in early 40s and thats when they realize what they were missing.
gattaca Posted June 24 Author Posted June 24 19 hours ago, Vancouver said: So how rest of India will react when UP & Bihar become the sole contributor to population increase. All the jobs will go to them. They will carry the aging population of rest of India. Like how west is dependent on foreigners. Worse thing we will have an influx of Bangladeshis. They are migrating to West Bengal and uttarakand because of population decline
gattaca Posted June 24 Author Posted June 24 19 hours ago, bowl_out said: Let population drop in the short term. I'd rather see our population drop to less than 100 crore and stabilize rather than grow to 200 crore. Yes, we'll have aging population, but one generation has to bear the impact of it. Once population drops it will not go up that is the point I am making. None of the countries are able to reverse population decline
kepler37b Posted June 24 Posted June 24 20 hours ago, Vancouver said: So how rest of India will react when UP & Bihar become the sole contributor to population increase. All the jobs will go to them. They will carry the aging population of rest of India. Like how west is dependent on foreigners. Kerala already has a sizeable proportion of naarthie immigrants.
kepler37b Posted June 24 Posted June 24 3 hours ago, jf1gp_1 said: Most like that usually end up having kids. Have seen a few becoming parents in early 40s and thats when they realize what they were missing. That is a terrible age to take care of young kids. You will not have patience.
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