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How Modi is going to revive the economy, and at the same time control inflation?


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Posted

Agri needs modernization more than anynthing else .We still depend on manual labour for everything from cultivating till harvesting. That not only increases cost but also watses human resources as well. If possibly import the technologies countries like US and others who use them and subsidize to the farmers. Need to invest massively in R&D as well for Agri sector.Also we have one of the worst yield per acre for most crops Need to improve that as well desperately

Posted
they dont have the money. Its better if the government open up infra to international cos and let him bid to operate projects.
There will always be security related issues when it tries to hand over key infrastructure projects to international companies.
Indians need to get out of this mentality of asking to government to build stuff. Our fiscal position was detoriated so badly under UPA 2 that India needs a macroeconomic solution than a microeconomic one.
Easy line, but MNCs aren't going to do those for free - in fact the cost markup will be much higher in comparison to locally undertaken projects. Where are we going to source the funds then?
The number 1 priroity is to sure up the balance of payments. Imports have surged ahead of exports. While roads and rails are a long term fix. The short term immediate need to is sure up this gap via incentives to NRIs and FDI increases.
NRIs are bringing in enough money already - especially thanks to the abysmal depths to which rupee fell - but the problem is NRIs as most of us are greedy and hence always the first investment route is real estate. funds are getting locked in real estate and resulting in bubbling up of the economy. Land cannot reproduce itself. Key is not quantum of money, but how it is getting invested.
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i read last year that india ranks 119 in economic freedom,our economic environment is stagnated and we need more investors. i think its important to see the fiscal policy of the govn.will they increase the tax and reduce the govn expenditure? we need improvement in the power,coal sector. need to revitalize the manufacturing sector by financing the infrastructure and by increasing FDI inflow. railways and agricultural sector are the backbone of our economy. The lack of necessary infrastructure in terms of food processing,food grain storage, cold storage, refrigerated transport etc has lead to loss in produce.need to improve these basic infras. Improving water management, rain water harvesting and watershed development.need to provide easy access to credit and subsidies to small farmers. these are some basic steps which need to implemented with immediate effect

Posted
Its requires a balancing act ' date='so what do u think are policy decisions which would be taken.What will he do with subsidies.[/quote'] It is no balancing act. I think the priorities are very clear for him. He has come on back of people's frustration from price rise. He ll fix that first. He need not sacrifice on growth necessarily. He ll encourage investments. No rate cuts this year.
Posted

Govt readies plan for FDI in railways and e-commerce

The issues are going to be presented before Narendra Modi, when he meets secretaries from the key ministries to take stock of the situation. The commerce and industry ministry is ready with proposals to allow foreign direct investment in railways and e-commerce, while easing the rules for overseas investors to enter the defence production space, which has seen zero participation despite the recent opening up. Sources said the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) is ready with the cabinet notes but will await cues from the new government on the level of FDI to be allowed. "It's just a matter of filling up the percentages," said a senior government official, who did not wish to be identified. The issues are going to be presented before Narendra Modi, when he meets secretaries from the key ministries to take stock of the situation. He is also expected to state the BJP government's stand clear on FDI in multi-brand retail, which the party has repeatedly opposed, including in its election manifesto. Experts and consultants, however, cautioned against a rollback of the FDI policy, arguing that it will send a negative message to the international investors. "It will be as bad as the retrospective amendments to the tax laws to get Vodafone in the tax net. What we need is a signal that India is open for business," said a source. While the ceilings are yet to be decided, sources indicated, that the government could allow 100% FDI in the sector, with certain conditions. "You already have a situation where local players are circumventing the rules and their growth is stifled. So, it will be better to make the rules clear," said a source. In case of railways, the plan was to allow 100% FDI in high-speed train systems, suburban corridors, high-speed tracks and freight lines connecting ports and mines. But, the UPA government did not clear the proposal. In defence production, where the cap was eased from 26% on a case to case basis, the rules give a lot of powers to the defence ministry besides lacking clarity
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Jaitley says balancing act has to be made between economic growth and containing inflation
AJ is always a smooth talker.
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smarter men than modi have tried and failed in this endeavour and hundreds of books have been written on this topic. Find it funny people are actually giving their solutions for this when the phillips curve clearly says none exist. we wouldve done well if we experience rapid economic growth and inflaton is contained to what it is now. any rate lower would be a bonus. Effects of growth remain forever, inflation effects will eventually go away

Posted
smarter men than modi have tried and failed in this endeavour and hundreds of books have been written on this topic. Find it funny people are actually giving their solutions for this when the phillips curve clearly says none exist. we wouldve done well if we experience rapid economic growth and inflaton is contained to what it is now. any rate lower would be a bonus. Effects of growth remain forever, inflation effects will eventually go away
Because those men could not take tough decisons and modi is expected to take the hard calls and with the mandate he has he better.
Posted
smarter men than modi have tried and failed in this endeavour and hundreds of books have been written on this topic. Find it funny people are actually giving their solutions for this when the phillips curve clearly says none exist. we wouldve done well if we experience rapid economic growth and inflaton is contained to what it is now. any rate lower would be a bonus. Effects of growth remain forever, inflation effects will eventually go away
I don't think Philip curve can be used to describe India's growth and inflation dynamic. Hell our inflation is double the growth rate as of now. India has to contain core inflation. India has supply side and distribution challenges.
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Starting point to recovery will be increasing the coal and steel production and power generation. PSUs like Coal India, SAIL, Power Grid, NTPC will have to start to increase their sales/profits substantially. Then in medium to long term there is: - GST - PJ Nayak Committee recommendations on PSU Banks for giving more autonomy to PSU banks for containing NPAs.

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- Incentives where investing in financial assets like FDs/Equity markets is more attractive than investing in physical assets like Gold and real estate. - Promote FDI in practically all sectors(except in sectors like retails) - Do not let Rupee appreciate to >58 as it will hurt the IT/Pharma exports and FDI investments.

Posted
Starting point to recovery will be increasing the coal and steel production and power generation. PSUs like Coal India, SAIL, Power Grid, NTPC will have to start to increase their sales/profits substantially. Then in medium to long term there is: - GST - PJ Nayak Committee recommendations on PSU Banks for giving more autonomy to PSU banks for containing NPAs.
This is one of the very good suggestions given by Arun Shourie in his interview to Rajdeep regarding PSU's:
"But the most creative idea in downsizing has come from TV18's Raghav Bahl that take all PSU out to all ministries and put them under a holding committee. So what will happen you would have a situation in which you will start with an asset base of $300-$400 billion in assets as currently valued, on the basis of that his estimate is that anything that you want to raise between $500 billion to $1 trillion in the next 5 years you can raise and use it for infrastructure. At the same time downsize the government as such and professionalise the management of each one of those enterprises. "
Posted
This is one of the very good suggestions given by Arun Shourie in his interview to Rajdeep regarding PSU's:
Yes, Good idea. It is supposed to nullify govt. interference in how these banks give loans. Situation is still quite tough. PSUs banks require abt 2 lac crore capitalization for achieving Basel III regulatory standard. They can list the holding company in stock exchange and start to dis invest it to raise capital for the Banks. The problem in merging and listing is that there are abt 20-25 PSU banks each trading at different P/E and P/B valuations and with different NPAs and other stressed loans. And with different govt. stake in each of them (51% to 80%)
Posted
Is it really needed? Of course, unwanted taxes should be taken out, but I don't agree with this artificial shielding - people must understand the benefits of public transport and start adopting them more and more - of course its not going to happen overnight, but states must be advised and impressed upon to improve local road transport.
Very much so, Indians cannot afford to pay like Rs100/litre. If you think about it, Indians already pay a huge price for fuel: 70 rupees or so per litre is acutally more expensive than whatever most of Americans pay for fuel. Its close to what the Canadians pay for fuel! So in essence, Indians pay 30 times more for fuel than the average North American does per litre ( Since Indian per capita is like 30 times lower than US/Canada in real GDP but pay pretty much the same, in real GDP per capita, for fuel per litre). So, how are we 'free enterprising, free market loving Indians' supposed to overcome this 30x fuel cost handicap to the average westerner without subsidy ?
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