narenpande1 Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Under the Guise of Public Safety, China Demolishes Thousands of Mosques http://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/udner-the-guise-of-public-safety-12192016140127.html Shameless Pakistanis would not utter a word of protest, let alone retaliate. China is their new master so ...Muslim ummah does not matter in this case apparently. Muloghonto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Banjo, Pak govt is taking its own people for a total ride. How is it possible that a government sells out its own people's interest and then markets it by propaganda as "development" ? And looking at the "One Belt One Road" maps and the recently inaugurated freight train connection from China to Europe via Central Asia, its clear that the "CPEC" corridor will really only have utility for the western provinces of China or exports destined for Pakistan. I.e. Make in China, sell in Pakistan. Reality is quite different from what Pakistani seem to believe. CPEC does seem to stand for - Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China. Thank god we are in better economic straits to avoid such exploitation. http://www.dawn.com/news/1306493/birth-of-another-dependency Quote THE latest quarterly report from the State Bank of Pakistan may sound like a dry affair, but read it a little closely and you’ll notice some startling revelations. For the past three years now we have grown accustomed to a steady drumbeat of positive news and statements about the economy — the reserves are rising, the circular debt has been contained for almost two years now, growth is ticking upward (even if very slowly), the fiscal deficit is coming down (targeted to hit 3.8pc of GDP this year, the lowest in over a decade). For a couple of years now we have been told that the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are stabilising and a new round of investment coming in from China is laying the groundwork for a new growth spurt that will last far into the future. This story has not been without its skeptics. We have heard similar stories in the past too, only to watch the whole thing unravel very quickly. The skeptics have pointed out that the rise in reserves owes mostly to declining oil prices and increasing foreign borrowing, and as such is not sustainable. The continuous declines in exports, drying up of FDI are serious weaknesses, they maintain, and while remittances have shored up the external account, this could change given the fiscal difficulties of the GCC countries. In short, they have argued that the government’s narrative of an improving economy is built on shaky ground. Examine: CPEC: The devil is not in the details The latest SBP report, although optimistic in its overall tone, points towards some changes in the first quarter of the current fiscal year that could lend lasting credence to the voice of the skeptics. Even though the SBP has taken pains to avoid letting its assessment become fodder for the skeptics to beat the government with, the underlying facts are too stark to now paper over. We seem to be substituting CSF inflows with commercial borrowings from China as a stopgap measure to plug our current account deficit. Here are some noteworthy developments the report brings up on the external sector. Pakistan saw net inflow of $1.1 billion in “net loan and FDI inflows from China in Q1-FY17” says the report. Out of this, $700 million (the lion’s share of the total) was a commercial loan from the China Development Bank whose only purpose, apparently, was to help pay for the nearly $2bn of machinery that Pakistan imported from China in the same quarter. In case you missed it, let me put it in plain English here: we’re borrowing money on commercial terms from a Chinese bank to pay for machinery imported from China under CPEC-related projects. Elaborating on this, the report says “[w]hereas Q1-FY16 had seen a dramatic pick-up in net FDI from China, it was long-term loan disbursements that dominated in Q1-FY17.” So last year in the same quarter, Pakistan saw net FDI inflow from China of $192m, but this year that figure dropped to $91m. And loans from China in the first quarter last year were $138m, and this year they jumped to $979m, of which $700m was the commercial loan mentioned above. These inflows helped cover up a hole that opened up in the country’s external account due to the drying up of Coalition Support Funds (CSF). In the same quarter last year, Pakistan ran a current account deficit that was less than half of what it ran this year. Last year the CSF inflows played a big role in helping cover the gap. This year the report says the commercial borrowing from China “helped to cover the increase in current account gap and lower foreign investment in the quarter”. This is important for a couple of reasons. First, we seem to be substituting CSF inflows with commercial borrowings from China as a stopgap measure to plug a running deficit in our current account. CSF was always billed as a “reimbursement”, and booked in our accounts as an export of a service (an awkward classification for what it implies). But the Chinese loans are on commercial terms and, unlike CSF, have to be repaid with interest. Another reason is that our three main non debt creating sources of foreign exchange inflows — exports, remittances and FDI — all registered declines in this quarter. For exports, this was the 10th consecutive quarter of declines that are now becoming alarming. For remittances, it was the first quarter of decline since 2012, and the report warns that an uptick is unlikely in the foreseeable future. So our current account is weakening almost irreversibly while imports from China are skyrocketing, and the gap is being plugged by commercial borrowing from Chinese banks. “[T]he structural weaknesses in the external account — reflected by the continuous drop in exports, lower FDI, and the drop in remittances — present a challenge,” says the report. How sustainable is this? What are the terms on these loans, and what sort of outflows will be created when repayment begins? Nobody knows, not even the State Bank it seems. But noting the shifting gears in the economy, the report does point out that “in the short run, it is imperative that CPEC projects (both power and infrastructure-related) continue at their projected pace, mainly to ensure steady arrival of associated FX inflows from China.” And then goes on to add that “[t]his financing will also be crucial to offset the rise in the import bill stemming from higher CPEC-related machinery imports.” Is this a new relationship of dependency being built here? Are we now getting locked into a cycle of borrowing and imports under the garb of CPEC even as the more important pillars of the external sector — exports, remittances and FDI — shrivel up? If so, the first quarter of fiscal year 2017 will be the moment when the gears shifted. Where these trends take us is difficult to foresee, but increasingly the government’s narrative of economic improvement is beginning to sound like a high-stakes bet instead of sound policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narenpande1 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 (edited) China's economy is in major shit. The heady days of high growth are beyond them. They have printed ridiculous amounts of money. It is precisely at this point one realizes the perils of communist control/ dictatorship. China at this point needs 5 dollars of credit growth for 1 dollar of GDP growth. The yuan must collapse, and so must all yuan based assets. Communist leadership will be overthrown if this happens and so they continue to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in absolutely wasteful infrastructure spending. This ONe belt One road bull$hit is nothing but an attempt by the Chinese govt to export Chinese labor. Rapidly declining exports and excessive overspending in infrastructure over the last decade has not left enough to be built in China that can absorb their labor force that is out of work due to declining exports and so exporting Chinese labor is the only option for the Chinese govt. They are doing that in Pakistan, and trying to do that in Europe. Europe is not going to buy their bullshit. They will not invest capital in it like China Aging population due to 1 child policy, rapidly declining labor advantage due to wage rise, totally effed up poisonous air and filthy water as a result of being the world's factory for 20 years. China has not evolved to more value added manufacturing. Once their 34 trillion dollar credit bubble bursts, their economy will go into atleast a decade of near 0 growth if not negative and there after will struggle to grow at 2-3 %. They are barely a middle income country and will remain struck here for the longest time. Great chance for India to crank up 8 % growth for atleast 20 years and leave China behind. The great part is India's labor force in 20 years time would still have its best years ahead of it, whilst China's would decline in 20 years. The elite in China realize this, won't be surprised at all if they play nuisance and provoke tension and war to halt our growth by using Pak as a rabid dog, which Pak will gladly do for a few dollars. Trump is going to take China to the cleaners..take it from me. Edited January 6, 2017 by narenpande1 Tibarn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardWarrior Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 to all Indian ICFers ... thanks for the concern .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sajid_Rana Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Karachi Circular railway will finally be completed under CPEC. Karachi desperatley needed a mass transit transportation.Thank you China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narenpande1 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Sajid_Rana said: Karachi Circular railway will finally be completed under CPEC. Karachi desperatley needed a mass transit transportation.Thank you China Provides 0 employment to your people, gets its own labor. Sets 7 % high interest rates loan for Pak to payback on the investment. China, colonizing and owning the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. After arm twisting Sri Lanka on loans and expensive financing, Chinese repeating the practice with Pakistan. The slaves that they are, they will bow down and surrender. http://www.voanews.com/a/sri-lanka-accets-chinese-demands-to-avoid-debt-trap/3276282.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/07/31/china-to-sri-lanka-we-want-our-money-not-your-empty-airport/#73c4d5dc1169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 (edited) 16 hours ago, sandeep said: Banjo, Pak govt is taking its own people for a total ride. How is it possible that a government sells out its own people's interest and then markets it by propaganda as "development" ? And looking at the "One Belt One Road" maps and the recently inaugurated freight train connection from China to Europe via Central Asia, its clear that the "CPEC" corridor will really only have utility for the western provinces of China or exports destined for Pakistan. I.e. Make in China, sell in Pakistan. Reality is quite different from what Pakistani seem to believe. CPEC does seem to stand for - Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China. Thank god we are in better economic straits to avoid such exploitation. http://www.dawn.com/news/1306493/birth-of-another-dependency What do you want Government to do? Tax revenue down by 1 billion this quarter, They used CPEC money to pay installment of other loan. China wants Pakistan to go on path of North Korea where it has one and only one market (China) and one and only one lender (China) and one and only one industry (arms) and one and only one enemy (India , its S Korea for N Lorea) What China hasnt factored is unlike S Korea there is actually 1.2 billion Indians and Pakistan is a Sunni Muslim nation, part of a very large brotherhood. Edited January 6, 2017 by mishra sandeep and Vilander 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 02/12/2016 at 9:08 AM, mishra said: Dont worry, Its just a matter of time when Trucks coming to Gwador port wont be going empty on return trip. Onvce route is opened there is absolutely no going back for China. This is what Hillary said to Pak. "It's like that old story - you can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard, " For the time being China has facilitated a bigger backyard. Its win win situation for Pakistan Told you so. Reap what you sow. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-to-seal-border-with-pakistan-to-curb-terror/articleshow/56468455.cms Quote BEIJING: The head of the Xinjiang government was quoted by the official Xinuha news agency on Tuesday as saying that security along the China-Pakistan border would be further tightened "to prevent terrorists from entering or leaving the region illegally in 2017". This is being seen as China's signalling its displeasure with Pakistan over its inability to stop terrorists from sneaking into its restive border region of Xinjiang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardWarrior Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 1:05 AM, mishra said: Told you so. Reap what you sow. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-to-seal-border-with-pakistan-to-curb-terror/articleshow/56468455.cms I think you are really in a hurry to say "told ya" .... FYI, CPEC is still in progress... its not stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 11 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said: I think you are really in a hurry to say "told ya" .... FYI, CPEC is still in progress... its not stopped. Chinese have no idea about how deep the shit is. I have complete faith in braindead Pakistani terror inc where even army generals (Raheel Sharif) are officially bought in name of Islam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sajid_Rana Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 https://www.dawn.com/news/1309395/raw-funded-anti-cpec-plan-foiled-in-gilgit-claim-police I wonder how China will react to this. They have already given Indiawarning of not messing up with CPEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muloghonto Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 37 minutes ago, Sajid_Rana said: https://www.dawn.com/news/1309395/raw-funded-anti-cpec-plan-foiled-in-gilgit-claim-police I wonder how China will react to this. They have already given Indiawarning of not messing up with CPEC. It is legally our land, so the Chinese will just have to put up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narenpande1 Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Sajid_Rana said: https://www.dawn.com/news/1309395/raw-funded-anti-cpec-plan-foiled-in-gilgit-claim-police I wonder how China will react to this. They have already given Indiawarning of not messing up with CPEC. Firstlly - prove the " funding ". Secondly - China can continue barking like they usually do. It is not their backyard. We will do what we want. Thirdly- Just tell your Chinese masters that India makes maritime claims on the 200 nautical miles area beyond gwadar port. After all since they claim the entire South China Sea on areas way away from their shores, India too can claim most of Indian Ocean, it is all in the name you see. China will not gain anything from CPEC, India will ensure it will just remain a silly hype. In all this only Pak will lose out because the Chinese will sit on their head to collect back the loan amount for CPEC which they falsely say they have sponsored. And Pak like always will pay back by giving away their land to the Chinese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Sajid_Rana said: https://www.dawn.com/news/1309395/raw-funded-anti-cpec-plan-foiled-in-gilgit-claim-police I wonder how China will react to this. They have already given Indiawarning of not messing up with CPEC. China is reacting already...CPEC is only a antiindia reaction. Opposing India in nsg also antiindia... Opposing India's bid to declare masood azhar a terrorist in UN is also antiindia... China won't directly do anything against India... otherwise India acts directly and they know they are very vulnerable...so they use Pakistan. And you are happy to be used in exchange of $$. Tibarn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narenpande1 Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 32 minutes ago, randomGuy said: China is reacting already...CPEC is only a antiindia reaction. Opposing India in nsg also antiindia... Opposing India's bid to declare masood azhar a terrorist in UN is also antiindia... China won't directly do anything against India... otherwise India acts directly and they know they are very vulnerable...so they use Pakistan. And you are happy to be used in exchange of $$. There is a pact between China and Pakistan, where China has promised Pakistan that it will oppose Indias rise on international forums in return for Pakistan being allowed to be used like a toilet paper. China today is an isolated almost rogue country. The only real " allies " that it has are North Korea and Pakistan which says a lot about China. They refuse to respect the judgment of A UN tribunal on the maritime dispute in South China Sea. They are last country in the world that should talk about sanctity of global forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Rabbit is out of the bag. JaiShankar has said that CPEC is on Indian teritory. China says it think its on Pakistani on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asim Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 OK, is there ANY indian who feel CPEC has ANY positive for Pak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Does it matter ? I read in the news China is planning on running trains to Europe. If that happens I don't know the viability of this. What trades is China planning on using at this port ? sandeep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 hours ago, gattaca said: Does it matter ? I read in the news China is planning on running trains to Europe. If that happens I don't know the viability of this. What trades is China planning on using at this port ? The whole purpose of CPEC is for China to gain direct access to the Arabian sea. Trade with Africa, Europe and rest of Asia can happen without having to cross Indian waters. I personally think it will be a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:24 AM, mishra said: What do you want Government to do? Tax revenue down by 1 billion this quarter, They used CPEC money to pay installment of other loan. China wants Pakistan to go on path of North Korea where it has one and only one market (China) and one and only one lender (China) and one and only one industry (arms) and one and only one enemy (India , its S Korea for N Lorea) What China hasnt factored is unlike S Korea there is actually 1.2 billion Indians and Pakistan is a Sunni Muslim nation, part of a very large brotherhood. Its exactly whats gonna bite them in the rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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