CPEC has ZERO economic viability, its a massive cost. Is the purpose something else?

[Muloghonto]

3 hours ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

Over what period are you guys calculating the cost? Look at it over a 50 year period.  Why are we today doing trade with China while they grab our land in arunachal and are helping our enemy and that too over a disputed land. The cost is always notional. The relationship is what matters.

 

is there no import or export we do with Pakistan. Any student exchange programs? If we do,  is that at the cost of our soldiers lives?

in 50 years, half of Pakistani assets will be owned by Chicom front-companies, if Pakistan cannot meet their loan repayment program in the 45 years prior to it. 

If you wish to say CPEC is a 50 billion dollar military investment for China- sure. But economically, its tough to see how Pakistan avoids a Sri Lanka -like scenario and the debt trap. 

[Muloghonto]

2 hours ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

It was a good discussion till you did the name calling in this post. Nevertheless my last post on this. In my opinion Pakistan stands to gain economically , strategically and even as per you stands to gain by continuation of the Kashmir issue. So there is some gain, which is why they are going for it. We will hope it is a faliure but to assume it will be a faliure, is foolhardy on our part. We can't handle arunachal, it may become even tough for us on gilgit. Any disagreements, we can agree to disagree. 

Pakistan is a top-down sham democracy, where the corruption works SPECIFICALLY to enrich their elite military and political class. Not that their Indian counterparts don't try it but atleast our military is incorruptible and doesnt give 5000 acre prime agricultural land hand-outs to our retiring Generals. And while our politicians do try to graft wherever they can, atleast some get caught and go to jail. Nobody from the Sharif-Zardari-Bhutto-Khan type elites do any time for highway robbery. 

Pakistan the nation gains jack $hit from CPEC. The political-military elite class gains a lot. Because they will make a profit by holding the 'Pakistani' companies involved with the CPEC, then the public will be left footing the insurmountable repayment bill. 

 

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

8 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Pakistan is a top-down sham democracy, where the corruption works SPECIFICALLY to enrich their elite military and political class. Not that their Indian counterparts don't try it but atleast our military is incorruptible and doesnt give 5000 acre prime agricultural land hand-outs to our retiring Generals. And while our politicians do try to graft wherever they can, atleast some get caught and go to jail. Nobody from the Sharif-Zardari-Bhutto-Khan type elites do any time for highway robbery. 

Pakistan the nation gains jack $hit from CPEC. The political-military elite class gains a lot. Because they will make a profit by holding the 'Pakistani' companies involved with the CPEC, then the public will be left footing the insurmountable repayment bill. 

 

That is how it is in every country, no matter what type of government. The degree may vary but every country is run by corporates in cahoots with the rulers, whether it is dictatorship or democracy. Consider a scenario where democracy survives in pakistan and military becomes less powerful. Why would CPEC then not benefit the civilians in the region. Army cannot construct the corridor.  We have already deemed it a faliure. It is an assumption and there is nothing concrete to base that assumption on.

Edited May 19, 2017 by Haarkarjeetgaye

[Muloghonto]

PS: Some numbers of the CPEC projects are just absurd. 

 

Take for example, their plans for Gwadar. They want 150 berths in Gwadar by 2045. 150 !! 
To give you an idea , largest port in China is the Shanghai Port and it has 9 international berths, with 20 inland barge berths. And PoS handles 37 million TEUs of container traffic per annum. 
By contrast, largest port in India (Mumbai) handles just under 4.5 million TEUs. 

So with 150 berths, Pakistan wants to handle somewhere in the range of .05 BILLION TEUs of container traffic ? 

This is, by current estimate, 370 times greater than total container traffic of Pakistan. 
Ergo, Pakistan cannot expect to increase its import-export quantity by 370 times in 30 years. Ergo, this is for China...which means CPEC through Khunjerab..which is a 4 lane highway that is closed for 4-5 months a year due to heavy snow. And at any given time, there is atleast a land-slide or two that blocks the Karakoram highway (CPEC route) every year between August-September, due to monsoon rains and the bare, unconsolidated rock and gravel terrain of the Trans-himalayas. 
Even if you line the entire highway back to back with container trucks, running 24/7/365, you cannot HOPE to transport more than 1 million TEUs via a 4 lane highway per annum. 

So...where is this 'container traffic' going to go ? 

 

These are elephantine 'debt-trap' projects for Pakistan. The incentive for its big-wigs, is to make money alongside Chinese companies during the construction phase, then stash the money overseas and run away to Englishstan or Dubai when Pakistan defaults.

 

Edited May 19, 2017 by Muloghonto

[Muloghonto]

5 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

That is how it is in every country, no matter what type of government. The degree may vary but every country is run by corporates in cahoots with the rulers, whether it is dictatorship or democracy. Consider a scenario where democracy survives in pakistan and military becomes less powerful. Why would CPEC then not benefit the civilians in the region. Army cannot construct the corridor.  We have already deemed it a faliure. It is an assumption and there is nothing concrete to base that assumption on.

There is no scenario where democracy survives in pakistan and military is weakened, without first defeating its military. Militaries are not made up of Buddhas that'd give up power voluntarily. Pakistan is a moron country that was moronic enough to create 'Joint Chief of staffs' post within the military. i.e., a military guy, who commands all of the air force, navy, army and nuclear forces under him. So why the heck will he listen to the 'democratic' government or ANY government ? Jiski lathi, Uski Bhains. Hence their problem with military rule. 

How are the citizens going to benefit from the CPEC when Pakistan cannot pay back the loan dollars and will have to raise taxes/sell assets of its nation to escape the debt trap ? Do you know whats going on in Sri Lanka currently ?? 

The 'concrete' basis of deeming it a failure is simply the fact that there is no way Pakistan can afford to keep up with the payment scheme. Hence its not just us, but IMF/world bank etc. have also deemed CPEC a 'likely failure for Pakistan'.

 

[Vilander]

9 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

PS: Some numbers of the CPEC projects are just absurd. 

 

Take for example, their plans for Gwadar. They want 150 berths in Gwadar by 2045. 150 !! 
To give you an idea , largest port in China is the Shanghai Port and it has 9 international berths, with 20 inland barge berths. And PoS handles 37 million TEUs of container traffic per annum. 
By contrast, largest port in India (Mumbai) handles just under 4.5 million TEUs. 

So with 150 berths, Pakistan wants to handle somewhere in the range of .05 BILLION TEUs of container traffic ? 

This is, by current estimate, 370 times greater than total container traffic of Pakistan. 
Ergo, Pakistan cannot expect to increase its import-export quantity by 370 times in 30 years. Ergo, this is for China...which means CPEC through Khunjerab..which is a 4 lane highway that is closed for 4-5 months a year due to heavy snow. And at any given time, there is atleast a land-slide or two that blocks the Karakoram highway (CPEC route) every year between August-September, due to monsoon rains and the bare, unconsolidated rock and gravel terrain of the Trans-himalayas. 
Even if you line the entire highway back to back with container trucks, running 24/7/365, you cannot HOPE to transport more than 1 million TEUs via a 4 lane highway per annum. 

So...where is this 'container traffic' going to go ? 

 

These are elephantine 'debt-trap' projects for Pakistan. The incentive for its big-wigs, is to make money alongside Chinese companies during the construction phase, then stash the money overseas and run away to Englishstan or Dubai when Pakistan defaults.

 

amazing post.

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

16 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

There is no scenario where democracy survives in pakistan and military is weakened, without first defeating its military. Militaries are not made up of Buddhas that'd give up power voluntarily. Pakistan is a moron country that was moronic enough to create 'Joint Chief of staffs' post within the military. i.e., a military guy, who commands all of the air force, navy, army and nuclear forces under him. So why the heck will he listen to the 'democratic' government or ANY government ? Jiski lathi, Uski Bhains. Hence their problem with military rule. 

How are the citizens going to benefit from the CPEC when Pakistan cannot pay back the loan dollars and will have to raise taxes/sell assets of its nation to escape the debt trap ? Do you know whats going on in Sri Lanka currently ?? 

The 'concrete' basis of deeming it a failure is simply the fact that there is no way Pakistan can afford to keep up with the payment scheme. Hence its not just us, but IMF/world bank etc. have also deemed CPEC a 'likely failure for Pakistan'.

 

Still you are saying likely. Why not 100 pc faliure? Is there any use case in your mind when it can succeed for Pakistan 

Edited May 20, 2017 by Haarkarjeetgaye

[Asim]

 

Pakistan's first Chinese language newspaper launched...

[dial_100]

CPEC is a suicide for Pak.  The country, completely immersed in debts, with no industries to revive economy, absolutely horrific education standards, workforce that is completely illiterate, politicians selling everything and anything at their disposal to further encumber the country with more debts, economy already glaring at 85% debt to GDP. My god how many things to list out here.

 

You add terrorism and religious extremism to this mix and you can clearly see Pakistan is going for a nose dive.

 

[KeyboardWarrior]

1 hour ago, dial_100 said:

CPEC is a suicide for Pak.  The country, completely immersed in debts, with no industries to revive economy, absolutely horrific education standards, workforce that is completely illiterate, politicians selling everything and anything at their disposal to further encumber the country with more debts, economy already glaring at 85% debt to GDP. My god how many things to list out here.

 

You add terrorism and religious extremism to this mix and you can clearly see Pakistan is going for a nose dive.

 

 

but thanks for the concern .... 

[mishra]

^ https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/pk/Documents/risk/pak-china-eco-corridor-deloittepk-noexp.pdf

 

Study from Deolitte. It paints only positive picture. It concludes with foll lowing.

Quote

The CPEC appears to be a very crucial project for both the countries.For China it provides analternate secure route to import Energy and find new markets for its goods and services.For Pakistan it helps counters Indian influence in the region,position itself as a major transit point connecting Eurasian region with South Asia and South East Asia and provide a much needed base to kick start its economic growth
.

I still think CPEC is a case of spending beyond your means. Its like a office clerk on modest salary buys a Villa to live in  a hope that he will be able to turn it into Hotel just because bank has agreed to give loan

Edited May 28, 2017 by mishra

[panther]

On 5/17/2017 at 8:21 AM, mishra said:

Is your village  on a plateau? Why you think your village wont be affected?

It won't there is no cpec projects in my village or surrounding areas. 

[mishra]

LOL.

1. Pakistani Corporates (If there is any) not given of CPEC tender/project which is effectively Pakistan's money as it is officially a loan t@18% APR by China.

2. Pakistani Businessmen are now realizing that while western create a win win situation to both parties, Chinese traders dont believe in any such Win Win crap.

3. As already predicted earlier on this thread, Only area Pakistan can trouble China is by immigration. Pakistani student exported to Chinese Uni's have allready increased significantly so China now tightens VISA rules. Only hope fopr Pakistan is ISI manages to get a serious Jihadi network in Uighur and other places so that just like Captain America they get "Great Ten" by their balls

 

[chewy]

12 minutes ago, mishra said:

LOL.

1. Pakistani Corporates (If there is any) not given of CPEC tender/project which is effectively Pakistan's money as it is officially a loan t@18% APR by China.

2. Pakistani Businessmen are now realizing that while western create a win win situation to both parties, Chinese traders dont believe in any such Win Win crap.

3. As already predicted earlier on this thread, Only area Pakistan can trouble China is by immigration. Pakistani student exported to Chinese Uni's have allready increased significantly so China now tightens VISA rules. Only hope fopr Pakistan is ISI manages to get a serious Jihadi network in Uighur and other places so that just like Captain America they get "Great Ten" by their balls

 

Wow 18% APR! for a multination loan arrangement is a bit much, any source for that?

that is some crazy returns for China

[mishra]

52 minutes ago, chewy said:

Wow 18% APR! for a multination loan arrangement is a bit much, any source for that?

that is some crazy returns for China

Then Pakistani claim they are not blinded by their Hate to India.

 

Depends the way you calculate. But all in all, Just like ports in Srilanka, CPEC in Pakistani territory (which actually will means developed Pakistani territory) will be finally handed to China immediately after completion.

 

With lessons learned from Srilankan deal, I believe in case of Pakistan , Chinese will have no preconditions on CPEC ownership i.e defense access and may be zero mandatory share or service to Pakistan.

Edited September 4, 2017 by mishra

[jusarrived]

On 29/05/2017 at 3:41 AM, mishra said:

^ https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/pk/Documents/risk/pak-china-eco-corridor-deloittepk-noexp.pdf

 

Study from Deolitte. It paints only positive picture. It concludes with foll lowing.

I still think CPEC is a case of spending beyond your means. Its like a office clerk on modest salary buys a Villa to live in  a hope that he will be able to turn it into Hotel just because bank has agreed to give loan

Exactly , its like getting a very cheap loan which is good as along as you can take that money and make more money out of it elsewhere . 

The only way they could have made that extra money is probably by taxing Chinese companies , instead these fools have gone ahead and given them tax exemption till 2032 I  think . 

 

[jusarrived]

1 hour ago, mishra said:

Then Pakistani claim they are not blinded by their Hate to India.

 

Depends the way you calculate. But all in all, Just like ports in Srilanka, CPEC in Pakistani territory (which actually will means developed Pakistani territory) will be finally handed to China immediately after completion.

 

With lessons learned from Srilankan deal, I believe in case of Pakistan , Chinese will have no preconditions on CPEC ownership i.e defense access and may be zero mandatory share or service to Pakistan.

I think they have done the same in some African / S American and SE countries as well .

[mishra]

2 hours ago, jusarrived said:

I think they have done the same in some African / S American and SE countries as well .

Yes, Chinese are loan Shark. They can only be controlled if UN mandates some sort of financial code of conduct otherwise smaller/weaker nations will be fleeced by Bully China

[chewy]

9 hours ago, mishra said:

Then Pakistani claim they are not blinded by their Hate to India.

 

Depends the way you calculate. But all in all, Just like ports in Srilanka, CPEC in Pakistani territory (which actually will means developed Pakistani territory) will be finally handed to China immediately after completion.

 

With lessons learned from Srilankan deal, I believe in case of Pakistan , Chinese will have no preconditions on CPEC ownership i.e defense access and may be zero mandatory share or service to Pakistan.

to add,

the Chinese are not stupid, their investment philosophy is different to the west, they are in it for long term. They will not interfere in internal politics BUT they will want a return, now or later, they will not contemplate default from receiving country, there is a price to pay.

 

If Pakistan's indigenous manufacturing fails to take-off, if Pak gov's revenues doesn't increase to pay back the loans with interest...China will not accept import tariffs on their cheap goods flooding Pak market, they will not accept defaults, they will want payment in natural resources, force even more unsustainable building projects onto Pakistan, takeout long term leaseholds only to charge Pak citizens.

 

And this isn't just predictions...it's already happened in other countries where Chine infra loans have turned sour--> Venezuela, Ghana, Argentina, Sri Lanka, Sudan    

 

On natural resources, I was always curious why China built Gwadar Port so quickly and ending up unofficially owning it (43 year lease) whilst the CPEC roads are being constructed primarily by Pak companies (which will take longer to build). My guess, the location is in resource rich Balochistan, and if repayments turn sour, China can easily send Balochistan's natural resources (natural gas, iron ore, gold, chromite, copper etc.) to China as loan payment.

 

And I still don't get CPEC route for Chinese goods from West China, which is basically China's two least developed states, Tibet and Xinjiang, where any industries or manufacturing is non-existent.    

 

 

 

 

[mishra]

19 hours ago, chewy said:

to add,

the Chinese are not stupid, their investment philosophy is different to the west, they are in it for long term. They will not interfere in internal politics BUT they will want a return, now or later, they will not contemplate default from receiving country, there is a price to pay.

 

1. If Pakistan's indigenous manufacturing fails to take-off, if Pak gov's revenues doesn't increase to pay back the loans with interest...China will not accept import tariffs on their cheap goods flooding Pak market, they will not accept defaults, they will want payment in natural resources, force even more unsustainable building projects onto Pakistan, takeout long term leaseholds only to charge Pak citizens.

 

And this isn't just predictions...it's already happened in other countries where Chine infra loans have turned sour--> Venezuela, Ghana, Argentina, Sri Lanka, Sudan    

 

2. On natural resources, I was always curious why China built Gwadar Port so quickly and ending up unofficially owning it (43 year lease) whilst the CPEC roads are being constructed primarily by Pak companies (which will take longer to build). My guess, the location is in resource rich Balochistan, and if repayments turn sour, China can easily send Balochistan's natural resources (natural gas, iron ore, gold, chromite, copper etc.) to China as loan payment.

 

And I still don't get CPEC route for Chinese goods from West China, which is basically China's two least developed states, Tibet and Xinjiang, where any industries or manufacturing is non-existent.    

 

 

 

 

Just try searching miltary bases or naval bases of NATO, Russia, USA or UK. Not just standard countries, You will find small puny nation island which you would have never heard off. But all in all it will tell you how overwhelmingly they have occupied whole earth. For example, some think that War in Syria is down to somehow get rid of Russian Military base Tartus. America allready achived its partial objective by creating a airfied in Kurdish Controlled zone.

 

Now back to point. China is NOT a developing nation. It is friggin developed one. It has UN veto, It owns Green energy, It is manufacturing Hub of world,  Its Banks are biggest (3 out of top 5). It ihas technology just second to US in almost every sphere. It has International Currency. Now Problem lies in this Currency arena.   No one is using that International Currency. Why? Because its influence is limited to taking/giving political favours when two neighbouring nations are at loggerheads. It hasnt got capability to perform Military Interventions. So what to do?  Build the Capability of Military Intervention. This is last piece in its quest to become developed nation puzzle.

 

CPEC or BRI or String of Pearls project is NOT about building a economic corridors or anything. It is purely a excercise to create Military bases by China. There is no Carrot Stick. It is simply feed on the Hate of nations Like Pakistan, Combodia and so on or exploit the poverty of other nations, or simply sell them a alternative world but create a Naval/Military base.